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December Mid/Long Range Discussion

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

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  On 12/8/2023 at 12:35 AM, BristowWx said:

Not sure he is complaining.  You trust the euro weeklies?  So long for this transition seems phantom.  But you are right Deb is a way to get through the muck

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I’m always cautious but the weeklies fit the MJO and strat progression. And now we’re seeing the transition on the ensembles inside D15. We’re not going to flip to an epic pattern from Xmas through March, but I’m feeling pretty good right now about late month into the first 1-2 weeks of January at least. 

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Bob Chill
Bob Chill

No matter how long of a break you take from here, nothing changes. Not.one.thing. 

mappy
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Good morning --  Winter starts Friday (climatological seasons for the win), and our regular snow birds are coming back to roost for the winter. As such our threads are becoming more active, espec

stormtracker
stormtracker

Seconded. And while we're at it, yall remember when posting a model post 200 hours was scorned upon?  Remember how the community would collectively rain hell on a poster who did that?  It's not a

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BristowWx

BristowWx

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  On 12/8/2023 at 12:39 AM, WxUSAF said:

I’m always cautious but the weeklies fit the MJO and strat progression. And now we’re seeing the transition on the ensembles inside D15. We’re not going to flip to an epic pattern from Xmas through March, but I’m feeling pretty good right now about late month into the first 1-2 weeks of January at least. 

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Good enough for me.  I’ve always respected your optimism or lack of it.  We wait.  But the natives are restless.  

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Blizzard of 93

Blizzard of 93

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  On 12/8/2023 at 12:34 AM, Blizzard of 93 said:

The latest Euro Weeklies do indeed continue to be drool worthy.

The can has not & is not being kicked on the Euro Weeklies.

The good looking pattern begins Christmas week & continues through mid January.

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I don’t recall a time when the Euro Weeklies were this consistent run after run.

They have produced the same good looking pattern beginning around December 20th on the Weeklies runs since at least around Thanksgiving.

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

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  On 12/8/2023 at 12:27 AM, WxUSAF said:

Dude…I know being a Deb is a coping mechanism, but we’re seeing the transition to the drool worthy euro weekly pattern and you’re complaining about that?

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It's a legitimate fear. We've seen these jet extensions persist longer than initially forecast and it leads to can kicking once we get close to D10 l, like 2018-2019.

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

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  On 12/8/2023 at 12:48 AM, BristowWx said:

Good enough for me.  I’ve always respected your optimism or lack of it.  We wait.  But the natives are restless.  

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I think if last year wasn’t the worst ever maybe people would have a little more patience. I still think we get on the board this month and maybe really rock the first half of January.

  On 12/8/2023 at 12:53 AM, cbmclean said:

Honest question, but isn't the migration of the core of the low to the Aleutians what we want to see?  That seems like that is what it is doing.

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Yes

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DarkSharkWX

DarkSharkWX

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  On 12/8/2023 at 12:53 AM, cbmclean said:

Honest question, but isn't the migration of the core of the low to the Aleutians what we want to see?  That seems like that is what it is doing.

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yea lol, its going to take some time to transition to a good pattern for here, it j isnt going to magically flip from warm to cold and snowy, not sure why some people were expecting it
image.png.246bca5760daa9fd28df8c2b947550ff.png

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Chris78

Chris78

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Winter is progressing the way the seasonal models have shown for a while now. Weeklies look great! Could they go to shit? Sure. We've seen that happen plenty of times but Id much rather have them showing a pretty epic January than a shit the blinds type of deal we've seen the last few years.

 

 

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

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  On 12/8/2023 at 4:11 AM, CAPE said:

It's a way to shit up this thread. There is another one specifically for that crap.

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People gotta start being considerate of this thread and what it's here for...I mean seriously. Folks keep making it all about themselves and what they're feeling, not realizing what it's doing to the thread.

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NorthArlington101

NorthArlington101

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  On 12/8/2023 at 4:22 AM, NorthArlington101 said:

GEFS also coming in improved… maybe we’ll wake up to an interesting EURO for favored zones?

Quite the spread lol. Was hoping the individual members had like a consensus on a “T-2” event rather than a 0”-2’. Don’t think those ever work out.

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