Chris78 Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 On 12/7/2023 at 12:36 PM, Weather Will said: WB latest 6Z GEFS still showing a nice look as we head into Christmas weekend.... Expand Looks right on track. At this point 850's and 2m temps are above average but a week later per the weeklies below normal temps are settling in. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 On 12/7/2023 at 12:40 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: +PNA, check. -AO, check. Aleutian low, check. STJ action, check. 50/50 ridge? ....deferring to the experts on that feature. My amateur 500mb deciphering tells me that's a suppressed look but I'm probably wrong. Expand If there is a blizzard in NC for Christmas, I will be happy for them ....WB 6Z GFS in Fantasy range is cooking up something .... 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 On 12/7/2023 at 12:40 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: +PNA, check. -AO, check. Aleutian low, check. STJ action, check. 50/50 ridge? ....deferring to the experts on that feature. My amateur 500mb deciphering tells me that's a suppressed look but I'm probably wrong. Expand I know we want to rush the progression because Xmas is right there…but that’s just too early on the pattern evolution probably. It’s not impossible we get some snow around Xmas if we get lucky but that’s really early for this process. Step 1 is getting the vortex in Canada to retrograde west. Once it gets off the coast we will start to see cold press in the US. But step two is to get that Atlantic ridge to retrograde and lift into the nao domain. That’s going to take some wave breaking probably and that usually means some rainstorms along the way. That’s probably a few days away from the start of a really good pattern. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 On 12/7/2023 at 1:47 PM, psuhoffman said: I know we want to rush the progression because Xmas is right there…but that’s just too early on the pattern evolution probably. It’s not impossible we get some snow around Xmas if we get lucky but that’s really early for this process. Step 1 is getting the vortex in Canada to retrograde west. Once it gets off the coast we will start to see cold press in the US. But step two is to get that Atlantic ridge to retrograde and lift into the nao domain. That’s going to take some wave breaking probably and that usually means some rainstorms along the way. That’s probably a few days away from the start of a really good pattern. Expand Wonder if this weekend's rainstorm starts that process. I think something similar happened in 2009 where we had a rainstorm around the 9th that re-shuffled everything in the Atlantic in time for the 12/19 storm. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 On 12/7/2023 at 1:52 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Wonder if this weekend's rainstorm starts that process. I think something similar happened in 2009 where we had a rainstorm around the 9th that re-shuffled everything in the Atlantic in time for the 12/19 storm. Expand Yes, @nw baltimore wx mentioned that yesterday. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 On 12/7/2023 at 1:52 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Wonder if this weekend's rainstorm starts that process. I think something similar happened in 2009 where we had a rainstorm around the 9th that re-shuffled everything in the Atlantic in time for the 12/19 storm. Expand The origins of that -NAO came from a Scandi ridge retrograding in early Dec. That's the mechanism that really initiated the impressive, sustained NA block that winter. What DT would call a 'real' -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 On 12/7/2023 at 2:12 PM, CAPE said: The origins of that -NAO came from a Scandi ridge retrograding in early Dec. That's the mechanism that really initiated the impressive, sustained NA block that winter. What DT would call a 'real' -NAO. Expand Cool. Hope we get another. The 50/50 low was legit too. I remember on the 12/19 storm, I came back to Philly and the news had a reporter in the Lehigh Valley reporting on partly sunny conditions while Philly was reporting it's 4th consecutive hour of heavy snow. It was amazing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 On 12/7/2023 at 2:15 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Cool. Hope we get another. The 50/50 low was legit too. I remember on the 12/19 storm, I came back to Philly and the news had a reporter in the Lehigh Valley reporting on partly sunny conditions while Philly was reporting it's 4th consecutive hour of heavy snow. It was amazing. Expand Yep. They go hand in hand. A true atmospheric block involves a sustained ridge/trough configuration. Rex, omega, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 The HL evolution in 2009 really was a thing of beauty. Favorable Aleutian low with an EPO ridge that bridged with the retrograding Scandinavian ridge, pinching off the TPV, which dropped energy into the developing trough underneath/ feeding into the 50-50 position, reinforcing the anomalous higher h5 heights building into the NAO domain. 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 On 12/7/2023 at 1:52 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Wonder if this weekend's rainstorm starts that process. I think something similar happened in 2009 where we had a rainstorm around the 9th that re-shuffled everything in the Atlantic in time for the 12/19 storm. Expand If memory serves it was warm at the beginning of Dec 09. Then we had a rain and the Dec 5 storm developed on the tail of that front. Dec 9 was a snow to rain here in Winchester. Then of course the rest happened. I could be wrong on the development of the Dec 5 storm but that’s my memory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 On 12/7/2023 at 12:46 PM, Chris78 said: Looks right on track. At this point 850's and 2m temps are above average but a week later per the weeklies below normal temps are settling in. Expand I was about to say something about the temps. We just need to accept that it's going to take time for temps to cool down as things reshuffle. Patience is hard to keep, especially with Christmas in view (and all the winter wishes that go with it), but it's still so, so early. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 Severe Anafront Watch! SUNDAY NIGHT LWX: Colder air will move in behind the front, first later Sunday afternoon in the Allegheny Highlands and then Sunday night from northwest to southeast across the rest of the area. With the upper- level trough axis lagging behind the frontal passage by a few hours or so, this suggests that there will be some anafrontal characteristics to the boundary. Therefore, there may be a few hour period of rain or rain changing to snow behind the cold front before drier air eventually works its way in overnight. The best chance for accumulating snow will be along the ridge tops of the Blue Ridge and Allegheny/Potomac Highlands where cold air will move in sooner. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 Looks like Euro has some snow for N&W areas again on Sunday night. Euro on its on at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 Arguably, the best EURO run yet for north and west of cities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 ^what does the next frame look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 The signs of a pattern change might be there but the cold air isnt about the coldest time of day and nothing remarkable anywhere in the US 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 On 12/7/2023 at 6:50 PM, Chris78 said: Looks like Euro has some snow for N&W areas again on Sunday night. Euro on its on at this point. Expand Where are you gonna put your money? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 Not the one thats on its own lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 On 12/7/2023 at 7:12 PM, ldub23 said: The signs of a pattern change might be there but the cold air isnt about the coldest time of day and nothing remarkable anywhere in the US Expand It's an op run at range, which isn't worth discussing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 On 12/7/2023 at 7:15 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Where are you gonna put your money? Expand Don't let him bring up a model run for discussion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 On 12/7/2023 at 7:26 PM, mattie g said: Don't let him bring up a model run for discussion! Expand Lol, just my way of getting the gfs into the conversation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 12z Euro at HR 93 (12z Mon, 12/11) for northern Maryland. Maybe some TV Snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 On 12/7/2023 at 7:44 PM, Eskimo Joe said: 12z Euro at HR 93 (12z Mon, 12/11) for northern Maryland. Maybe some TV Snow? Expand I can never seem to get my rabbit ears to get that channel 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 Last paragraph from Fairbanks discussion Extended Forecast Days 4-7... It looks to be much colder than we`ve seen lately and the coldest of the season so far for many locations, especially the West Coast and Western Interior Sunday night into Monday. The pattern looks to consist of troughing over the state which would bring more in the way of Arctic air to the West Coast and Western Interior with some moderating and chances for Interior snow by midweek. Details are still being ironed out and we will continue to monitor the evolving pattern as it is volatile. Its a bit below normal now. As long as they stay cold its going to be really hard for it to get cold here. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 12z EPS at distance looked better than yesterday FWIW 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 On 12/7/2023 at 8:03 PM, yoda said: 12z EPS at distance looked better than yesterday FWIW Expand Got a screenshot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 On 12/7/2023 at 8:10 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Got a screenshot? Expand On 12/7/2023 at 7:47 PM, ORH_wxman said: @CoastalWx Today's "ensembles are completely different from yesterday" session of the EPS....look at the PNA regions bouth south of the Aleutians and the west coast....this isn't even at the end of the run either. It's D11-12. Expand On 12/7/2023 at 7:49 PM, ORH_wxman said: Fwiw, the end of the run does have a pretty nice ALeutian low developing....but again, these things seem to change on a dime right now during this transition period Expand Will describes it best lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 For S and Gs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 From LWX As a result, the precipitation may change over to snow for a brief time Sunday night before ending. The greatest chance for this to occur will be to the west of the Blue Ridge, but a fair amount of ensemble members even show it occurring further east. As with many other aspects of the forecast, the finer scale details of the snow forecast remain highly uncertain four days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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