December Mid/Long Range Discussion

[WxUSAF]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

18z GEFS looks good at 500mb, but it's a blistering torch across Canada at the surface unfortunately. 

Canada torches are supposed to happen in Ninos. If/when we get some drool worthy KU type scenario in January or February, Canada will be mostly AN.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Feels different this year, hopefully it will pan out, a little luck may go a long way or perhaps wearing your pjs inside out if you know what they are

Nino vs Nina. That's the basic difference in the feel at this point. No guarantees ofc.

[Jebman]

17 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS run best I have seen in a long time thru day 11.  I know everyone gets annoyed with snow maps but to see big hits to the south is great....

I'll take p-25 for 7,000 dollars, Alex.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Canada torches are supposed to happen in Ninos. If/when we get some drool worthy KU type scenario in January or February, Canada will be mostly AN.

Exactly. Its relative.

Also if it's super cold up there that can mean +AO and we are pretty much screwed regardless.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GEFS, still learning to read these 500mb maps but it it is great to see a trough rather than a SE ridge off the east coast and no deep trough over CA.  Much better look than last year.

[WxUSAF]

13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Nino vs Nina. That's the basic difference in the feel at this point. No guarantees ofc.

And we’re seeing those differences already. Juicy STJ and we’ve already seen models correct to more +PNA as we get closer in time. This isn’t last year folks.

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

And we’re seeing those differences already. Juicy STJ and we’ve already seen models correct to more +PNA as we get closer in time. This isn’t last year folks.

God I hope the margins are ok

[CAPE]

Nice to see the good vibes. I'm off to enjoy more DFH beer. So many good ones.  Cant try em all. Well maybe.

[psuhoffman]

27 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Canada torches are supposed to happen in Ninos. If/when we get some drool worthy KU type scenario in January or February, Canada will be mostly AN.

Thanks. But I swear we had this conversation earlier today…

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Nice to see the good vibes. I'm off to enjoy more DFH beer. So many good ones.  Cant try em all. Well maybe.

Only people on this board will know how good a beer is going to taste sometime in the weeks ahead while we watch some sexy happy hour GFS run clobber us at short lead times. Gah I can’t wait…

[psuhoffman]

24 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Exactly. Its relative.

Also if it's super cold up there that can mean +AO and we are pretty much screwed regardless.

Soil temps

sun angle 

the barometer in Pittsburgh 

now we have to worry about the temp 1500 miles away. 
it’s always gonna be something. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Yeah that was a whopping 1/2” here. 

We smoked so much cirrus out in Cross Junction I failed a drug test. We didn't get a single flake out there.  Remember driving into town the next morning and hit snow dusting at the Virginia Farm Market.  About 2 inches at our office in Kernstown.   Went over to my place in Front Royal that evening and there was over 4" on the ground.  Unreal.

[Jebman]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Only people on this board will know how good a beer is going to taste sometime in the weeks ahead while we watch some sexy happy hour GFS run clobber us at short lead times. Gah I can’t wait…

Don't forget to lay in a good supply of IPA's.....

[Solution Man]

25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Soil temps

sun angle 

the barometer in Pittsburgh 

now we have to worry about the temp 1500 miles away. 
it’s always gonna be something. 

Don’t forget, “how much for Short Pump”

 

[Eskimo Joe]

50 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Only people on this board will know how good a beer is going to taste sometime in the weeks ahead while we watch some sexy happy hour GFS run clobber us at short lead times. Gah I can’t wait…

Spatan or bust. 

[dailylurker]

I like the whining coming from Lake Tahoe. We're definitely in a different pattern then last year. 

[Kevin Reilly]

3 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I like the whining coming from Lake Tahoe. We're definitely in a different pattern then last year. 

Well take a look at the Cam we would be in paradise right now:

 

Downtown Truckee | Tahoetopia

[Maestrobjwa]

12 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I like the whining coming from Lake Tahoe. We're definitely in a different pattern then last year. 

What are their gripes? Lol

[midatlanticweather]

DT had a good review of what looks amazing on the Euro going into Christmas and beyond! Pretty nice looking! Hope it comes true. 

I KNOW WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT IT! But some added support!

 

 

[Scraff]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Only people on this board will know how good a beer is going to taste sometime in the weeks ahead while we watch some sexy happy hour GFS run clobber us at short lead times. Gah I can’t wait…

With that comment, the Scraff Beer Fridge Index just went straight up pants tent mode. 

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

What are their gripes? Lol

Their stats guy determined if they get to December 5th with less than 10' of snow, their winter is going to suck.

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, midatlanticweather said:

DT had a good review of what looks amazing on the Euro going into Christmas and beyond! Pretty nice looking! Hope it comes true. 

I KNOW WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT IT! But some added support!

 

 

I’m speechless that he’s honking the Euro. Stunned

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Only people on this board will know how good a beer is going to taste sometime in the weeks ahead while we watch some sexy happy hour GFS run clobber us at short lead times. Gah I can’t wait…

I hope beer ages well lol

[NorthArlington101]

Well the GFS pops the trailing low, at least more than in previous runs from what I can tell, but doesn’t really seem to matter.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GFS, drought denting rain event for Sunday still on tap.

[jayyy]

WB 6Z GFS, drought denting rain event for Sunday still on tap.

Nice to see some juice finally showing up on models


.

[WxUSAF]

Euro still has some snow for N/W areas although less than 12z yesterday. GFS and GGEM only for mountains and areas in PA/NY.

[Weather Will]

WB latest 6Z GEFS still showing a nice look as we head into Christmas weekend....

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB latest 6Z GEFS still showing a nice look as we head into Christmas weekend....

+PNA, check. -AO, check. Aleutian low, check. STJ action, check. 50/50 ridge? ....deferring to the experts on that feature. My amateur 500mb deciphering tells me that's a suppressed look but I'm probably wrong.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB latest 6Z GEFS still showing a nice look as we head into Christmas weekend....

Looks similiar to the weeklies