December Mid/Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

  On 12/6/2023 at 11:59 PM, Weather Will said:

Feels different this year, hopefully it will pan out, a little luck may go a long way or perhaps wearing your pjs inside out if you know what they are

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Nino vs Nina. That's the basic difference in the feel at this point. No guarantees ofc.

[Jebman]

  On 12/6/2023 at 11:52 PM, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS run best I have seen in a long time thru day 11.  I know everyone gets annoyed with snow maps but to see big hits to the south is great....

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I'll take p-25 for 7,000 dollars, Alex.

[CAPE]

  On 12/7/2023 at 12:05 AM, WxUSAF said:

Canada torches are supposed to happen in Ninos. If/when we get some drool worthy KU type scenario in January or February, Canada will be mostly AN.

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Exactly. Its relative.

Also if it's super cold up there that can mean +AO and we are pretty much screwed regardless.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GEFS, still learning to read these 500mb maps but it it is great to see a trough rather than a SE ridge off the east coast and no deep trough over CA.  Much better look than last year.

[WxUSAF]

  On 12/7/2023 at 12:06 AM, CAPE said:

Nino vs Nina. That's the basic difference in the feel at this point. No guarantees ofc.

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And we’re seeing those differences already. Juicy STJ and we’ve already seen models correct to more +PNA as we get closer in time. This isn’t last year folks.

[aldie 22]

  On 12/7/2023 at 12:21 AM, WxUSAF said:

And we’re seeing those differences already. Juicy STJ and we’ve already seen models correct to more +PNA as we get closer in time. This isn’t last year folks.

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God I hope the margins are ok

[CAPE]

Nice to see the good vibes. I'm off to enjoy more DFH beer. So many good ones.  Cant try em all. Well maybe.

[psuhoffman]

  On 12/7/2023 at 12:05 AM, WxUSAF said:

Canada torches are supposed to happen in Ninos. If/when we get some drool worthy KU type scenario in January or February, Canada will be mostly AN.

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Thanks. But I swear we had this conversation earlier today…

[WxUSAF]

  On 12/7/2023 at 12:29 AM, CAPE said:

Nice to see the good vibes. I'm off to enjoy more DFH beer. So many good ones.  Cant try em all. Well maybe.

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Only people on this board will know how good a beer is going to taste sometime in the weeks ahead while we watch some sexy happy hour GFS run clobber us at short lead times. Gah I can’t wait…

[psuhoffman]

  On 12/7/2023 at 12:13 AM, CAPE said:

Exactly. Its relative.

Also if it's super cold up there that can mean +AO and we are pretty much screwed regardless.

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Soil temps

sun angle 

the barometer in Pittsburgh 

now we have to worry about the temp 1500 miles away. 
it’s always gonna be something. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

  On 12/6/2023 at 10:06 PM, WinterWxLuvr said:

Yeah that was a whopping 1/2” here. 

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We smoked so much cirrus out in Cross Junction I failed a drug test. We didn't get a single flake out there.  Remember driving into town the next morning and hit snow dusting at the Virginia Farm Market.  About 2 inches at our office in Kernstown.   Went over to my place in Front Royal that evening and there was over 4" on the ground.  Unreal.

[Jebman]

  On 12/7/2023 at 12:35 AM, WxUSAF said:

Only people on this board will know how good a beer is going to taste sometime in the weeks ahead while we watch some sexy happy hour GFS run clobber us at short lead times. Gah I can’t wait…

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Don't forget to lay in a good supply of IPA's.....

[Solution Man]

  On 12/7/2023 at 12:38 AM, psuhoffman said:

Soil temps

sun angle 

the barometer in Pittsburgh 

now we have to worry about the temp 1500 miles away. 
it’s always gonna be something. 

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Don’t forget, “how much for Short Pump”

 

[Eskimo Joe]

  On 12/7/2023 at 12:35 AM, WxUSAF said:

Only people on this board will know how good a beer is going to taste sometime in the weeks ahead while we watch some sexy happy hour GFS run clobber us at short lead times. Gah I can’t wait…

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Spatan or bust. 

[dailylurker]

I like the whining coming from Lake Tahoe. We're definitely in a different pattern then last year. 

[Kevin Reilly]

  On 12/7/2023 at 1:58 AM, dailylurker said:

I like the whining coming from Lake Tahoe. We're definitely in a different pattern then last year. 

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Well take a look at the Cam we would be in paradise right now:

 

Downtown Truckee | Tahoetopia

[Maestrobjwa]

  On 12/7/2023 at 1:58 AM, dailylurker said:

I like the whining coming from Lake Tahoe. We're definitely in a different pattern then last year. 

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What are their gripes? Lol

[midatlanticweather]

DT had a good review of what looks amazing on the Euro going into Christmas and beyond! Pretty nice looking! Hope it comes true. 

I KNOW WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT IT! But some added support!

 

 

[Scraff]

  On 12/7/2023 at 12:35 AM, WxUSAF said:

Only people on this board will know how good a beer is going to taste sometime in the weeks ahead while we watch some sexy happy hour GFS run clobber us at short lead times. Gah I can’t wait…

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With that comment, the Scraff Beer Fridge Index just went straight up pants tent mode. 

[cbmclean]

  On 12/7/2023 at 2:11 AM, Maestrobjwa said:

What are their gripes? Lol

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Their stats guy determined if they get to December 5th with less than 10' of snow, their winter is going to suck.

[WinterWxLuvr]

  On 12/7/2023 at 2:39 AM, midatlanticweather said:

DT had a good review of what looks amazing on the Euro going into Christmas and beyond! Pretty nice looking! Hope it comes true. 

I KNOW WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT IT! But some added support!

 

 

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I’m speechless that he’s honking the Euro. Stunned

[WinterWxLuvr]

  On 12/7/2023 at 12:35 AM, WxUSAF said:

Only people on this board will know how good a beer is going to taste sometime in the weeks ahead while we watch some sexy happy hour GFS run clobber us at short lead times. Gah I can’t wait…

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I hope beer ages well lol

[NorthArlington101]

Well the GFS pops the trailing low, at least more than in previous runs from what I can tell, but doesn’t really seem to matter.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GFS, drought denting rain event for Sunday still on tap.

[jayyy]

  On 12/7/2023 at 10:00 AM, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GFS, drought denting rain event for Sunday still on tap.

Nice to see some juice finally showing up on models


.

[WxUSAF]

Euro still has some snow for N/W areas although less than 12z yesterday. GFS and GGEM only for mountains and areas in PA/NY.

[Weather Will]

WB latest 6Z GEFS still showing a nice look as we head into Christmas weekend....

[Ralph Wiggum]

  On 12/7/2023 at 12:36 PM, Weather Will said:

WB latest 6Z GEFS still showing a nice look as we head into Christmas weekend....

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+PNA, check. -AO, check. Aleutian low, check. STJ action, check. 50/50 ridge? ....deferring to the experts on that feature. My amateur 500mb deciphering tells me that's a suppressed look but I'm probably wrong.

[MJO812]

  On 12/7/2023 at 12:36 PM, Weather Will said:

WB latest 6Z GEFS still showing a nice look as we head into Christmas weekend....

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Looks similiar to the weeklies 

[Chris78]

  On 12/7/2023 at 12:36 PM, Weather Will said:

WB latest 6Z GEFS still showing a nice look as we head into Christmas weekend....

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Looks right on track. At this point 850's and 2m temps are above average but a week later per the weeklies below normal temps are settling in.