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December Mid/Long Range Discussion

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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wawarriors4

wawarriors4

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Was like 6” at my house and I believe had some 10-12” reports S and E of DC. Had a strong gradient with the N and W folks getting actually fringed for once. 

We had 14.5" just NW of Fredericksburg, VA. It was paste, power was out, 95 was shut down for like 50 miles. And that 14.5" fell in like 6 hours after we got over an inch of rain.......

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mattie g

mattie g

Posted
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Love to see the reshuffle happening on the ensembles now, and not just on the weeklies. It's also nice that the can isn't getting kicked, so that each new run is showing us more of those changes than we saw in the prior run.

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Was like 6” at my house and I believe had some 10-12” reports S and E of DC. Had a strong gradient with the N and W folks getting actually fringed for once. 

From my notes (Burke):

January 3: 9.25” from a relatively fast-moving low that formed as a big front came through. Was in the mid-60s for a couple days before, light rain and wet snow started at 4:00 am, then flipped by 6:00. Temps dropped all day. Nearly 2”/hr rates at the height. Postcard scene, but lots of trees and limbs down in the area.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
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2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

It definitely does happen? A lot of our storms start as rain. The early January 2022 event was deluge rain for 3-4 hours (temps were in the 50s and 60s day before?) and then switched to snow. 
 

It takes a certain set of conditions, but it can happen.

Pretty sure that storm was all snow. It was a beautiful day (around 60) the day before but cold/dry air arrived just ahead of the wave later that night. That was the 'CAPE' storm lol, the one I tracked from 2 weeks out when we were in a hopeless 'shit the blinds pattern'. Ended up with over 9" here.

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stormy

stormy

Posted
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5 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Love to see the reshuffle happening on the ensembles now, and not just on the weeklies. It's also nice that the can isn't getting kicked, so that each new run is showing us more of those changes than we saw in the prior run.

From my notes (Burke):

January 3: 9.25” from a relatively fast-moving low that formed as a big front came through. Was in the mid-60s for a couple days before, light rain and wet snow started at 4:00 am, then flipped by 6:00. Temps dropped all day. Nearly 2”/hr rates at the height. Postcard scene, but lots of trees and limbs down in the area.

This is a perfect illustration that no person on the face of the earth can accurately predict more than 24 hours in advance when it will snow or not snow. Not psu, not Cape, no person. Evolving surface features can sometimes foil even the most sophisticated analysis. Don't be fooled by anything otherwise.

The Sunday/Monday snow potential on the ECMWF will likely die. This January 3, 2022 potential did not die. 

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Ji

Ji

Posted
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4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Pretty sure that storm was all snow. It was a beautiful day (around 60) the day before but cold/dry air arrived just ahead of the wave later that night. That was the 'CAPE' storm lol, the one I tracked from 2 weeks out when we were in a hopeless 'shit the blinds pattern'. Ended up with over 9" here.

that was a really good month for the area aside from that storm. Probably our last good month of winter 

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

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14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Pretty sure that storm was all snow. It was a beautiful day (around 60) the day before but cold/dry air arrived just ahead of the wave later that night. That was the 'CAPE' storm lol, the one I tracked from 2 weeks out when we were in a hopeless 'shit the blinds pattern'. Ended up with over 9" here.

Definitely started as rain for me for a few hours. I vividly remember waking up during the night and hearing pouring rain on the roof and then the noise went away and I knew it had switched to snow. Had a cold powder event a few days later. Agree with @Ji that January 2022 was a solid winter month. 

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
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11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Definitely started as rain for me for a few hours. I vividly remember waking up during the night and hearing pouring rain on the roof and then the noise went away and I knew it had switched to snow. Had a cold powder event a few days later. Agree with @Ji that January 2022 was a solid winter month. 

That's odd because I tracked that threat from so far out I wasn't going to miss any of it. First time I looked out and saw precip falling it was snow and 32, and an hour before it wasn't doing anything. May have been a mix at the beginning. Precip was heavier to the south and east so maybe it took a bit longer to cool the lower levels up your way. Most of that storm temps were in the 20s here.

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ldub23

ldub23

Posted
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I would  like to see Fairbanks warm up before  i get too excited about  cold  here.

 

This Afternoon
Snow, mainly before 3pm. High near 4. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
Tonight
A 20 percent chance of snow before 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -5. Calm wind becoming northeast around 5 mph.
Thursday
Partly sunny, with a high near 4. Calm wind becoming northeast around 5 mph.
Thursday Night
A 40 percent chance of snow, mainly after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -11. Calm wind.
Friday
A 50 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 0. Calm wind.
Friday Night
A 40 percent chance of snow, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -20.
Saturday
Partly sunny, with a high near -9.
Saturday Night
A slight chance of snow after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -21.
Sunday
A slight chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near -8.
Sunday Night
A slight chance of snow before 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -17.
Monday
A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 3.
Monday Night
A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -5.
Tuesday
A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 3.
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HighStakes

HighStakes

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2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

That's odd because I tracked that threat from so far out I wasn't going to miss any of it. First time I looked out and saw precip falling it was snow and 32, and an hour before it wasn't doing anything. May have been a mix at the beginning. Precip was heavier to the south and east so maybe it took a bit longer to cool the lower levels up your way. Most of that storm temps were in the 20s here.

Complete whiff here. Not even a single flake that I can recall just cloudy and very cold.  I think Reisterstown was the cut off. Maybe an inch or 2 down there. 

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
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2 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

I would  like to see Fairbanks warm up before  i get too excited about  cold  here.

 

This Afternoon
Snow, mainly before 3pm. High near 4. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
Tonight
A 20 percent chance of snow before 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -5. Calm wind becoming northeast around 5 mph.
Thursday
Partly sunny, with a high near 4. Calm wind becoming northeast around 5 mph.
Thursday Night
A 40 percent chance of snow, mainly after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -11. Calm wind.
Friday
A 50 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 0. Calm wind.
Friday Night
A 40 percent chance of snow, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -20.
Saturday
Partly sunny, with a high near -9.
Saturday Night
A slight chance of snow after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -21.
Sunday
A slight chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near -8.
Sunday Night
A slight chance of snow before 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -17.
Monday
A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 3.
Monday Night
A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -5.
Tuesday
A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 3.

That’s not cold for Fairbanks. They’re probably in t-shirts

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
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9 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Complete whiff here. Not even a single flake that I can recall just cloudy and very cold.  I think Reisterstown was the cut off. Maybe an inch or 2 down there. 

Yeah I drove out to the Hagerstown area a couple days later and it was wild to see the cutoff driving west on I70.

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Wxdavis5784

Wxdavis5784

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Complete whiff here. Not even a single flake that I can recall just cloudy and very cold.  I think Reisterstown was the cut off. Maybe an inch or 2 down there. 

Yep, 100%. 

We had nothing just south of Hanover, PA, by the time I got to Randallstown there was a couple inches on the ground.

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SnowenOutThere

SnowenOutThere

Posted
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11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

That's odd because I tracked that threat from so far out I wasn't going to miss any of it. First time I looked out and saw precip falling it was snow and 32, and an hour before it wasn't doing anything. May have been a mix at the beginning. Precip was heavier to the south and east so maybe it took a bit longer to cool the lower levels up your way. Most of that storm temps were in the 20s here.

Apparently I woke up at 2:30 that morning and recorded a video documenting what was happening. Primary P-type was sleet but up until then was plain rain, temp was 36 at the time. Next video I have is at 4:30am and shows heavy snow and a coating to an inch already accumulated so most likely started as rain for a couple hours before switching over and then dumping till like 12pm. Total was around 6.5-7 inches then we had a storm later that week that gave another 4 with a middle of the night death band. 

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
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3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Apparently I woke up at 2:30 that morning and recorded a video documenting what was happening. Primary P-type was sleet but up until then was plain rain, temp was 36 at the time. Next video I have is at 4:30am and shows heavy snow and a coating to an inch already accumulated so most likely started as rain for a couple hours before switching over and then dumping till like 12pm. Total was around 6.5-7 inches then we had a storm later that week that gave another 4 with a middle of the night death band. 

I think temps had cooled close to freezing here before the precip began. Antithesis of UHI FTW.

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

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Just now, CAPE said:

I think temps had cooled close to freezing here before the precip began. Antithesis of UHI FTW.

I remember just staring at my PWS thermometer all damn evening before the storm just willing it colder. Started in the upper 50s and I Think it finally got into the upper 30s by like 10-11pm when I went to bed.

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted
18z Icon actually trended better and shows snow NW of the cities and getting very close to a changeover for a bit further east.  

Doesn’t seem like there’s much in the way of cold rushing in behind that system. Even when that happens, east of the mountains is typically not very good at rain to snow due to downsloping. Looks like the following weekend is the next system to watch.
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