December Mid/Long Range Discussion

[Chris78]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Don’t know about that, but odds of KU storms are certainly higher than normal this winter, particularly mid Jan-mid Feb.

I was kind of saying it jokingly but I'd certainly take 40" again over 36 hours lol.

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Don’t know about that, but odds of KU storms are certainly higher than normal this winter, particularly mid Jan-mid Feb.

Yep. Not now. But around then. 

We can see the STJ start loading its ammo and taking aim at the SE US on recent runs, especially 12z gfs. 

[DarkSharkWX]

im p sure if you remove the super nino years with crazy goa low phase 8/1 would still gen be good tropical forcing for cold/snow here 

[mattie g]

39 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Don’t know about that, but odds of KU storms are certainly higher than normal this winter, particularly mid Jan-mid Feb.

The look in January on the Euro monthlies is excellent, but February is out-and-out weenie. If it plays out that way, I'd be shocked if we didn't get a couple *really* good looks over the 6 weeks of prime climo.

[frd]

2 hours ago, thunderbolt said:

That also goes for number two

MJO phase significance changes based on the three month period you are in. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

57 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The actual tropical forcing should favor a cooler Dec as well. What is so special about the month December that makes it break normal ENSO-forcing? Too many lazy correlations imo

Maybe wavelength...

[mappy]

Can we dial back the banter please  

[Ji]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Everyone keeps saying this but it's not true.   

The following stats are for snowfall in all El nino years since 1950.  26 years.  

BWI had at least 4" of snow before January 1 in the following el nino years... 1951, 1952, 1953, 1957, 1963, 1968, 1969, 1982, 1987, 2002, 2009

So roughly 42% of el nino winters had significant snow (4") in November/December.  

There have been 48 non el nino years since 1950.  In those years BWI had 4" of snow by January 1 in only 13 years or 27%.

Baltimore is significantly more likely to get snowfall early in El Nino's than in neutral and nina seasons. 

Additionally...

Avg Nino snowfall in years BWI gets 4" by Jan 1 = 34"

Avg Nino snowfall in years BWI does not get 4" by Jan 1 = 17"

Why does everyone keep saying Decembers always suck in a nino.  They suck in SOME Nino's...and guess what those usually end up being the crappy nino's.  yes SOME are years like 1966 and 1987 that flip around New Years.  But there are more examples like 1959, 1973, 1992, 1995, 1998, 2007 where a bad early season went on to be a dud nino season.  I am not expecting that this year...but I get annoyed everytime I see this assertion that we just toss December in a nino when that data does not support that at all.  Actually Nino's have a higher probability of early snow than non ninos.  

 

I actually just studied this lol.....65-66 and 86-87 had almost no snow in Dec and turned out well but yes...all our epic winters (40 inch or more) had significant snow in December. I wish i was alive i the 60s man....almost every year was epic and most had big Decembers

[Daniel Boone]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

I actually just studied this lol.....65-66 and 86-87 had almost no snow in Dec and turned out well but yes...all our epic winters (40 inch or more) had significant snow in December. I wish i was alive i the 60s man....almost every year was epic and most had big Decembers

Yep, they were. Nino, Nina -PDO etc.. it still snowed!! 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

53 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe wavelength...

Doesn't explain why the N. Pacific low ends up in Alaska. Truth is it's just a handful of years, and given more examples, the normal forcing rules will prevail: North and South of where the OLR/heat is on the equator. 

Here's Jan-Feb.. no correlation over Alaska

https://ibb.co/1XjjcNm

December.. gasp.. a 0.1 correlation over Alaska lol which I think is just a lack of samples

https://ibb.co/V2CyLcG

Wavelengths does make Jan-Feb overall a higher correlation though.. no doubt the correlation could kick into gear then.. but I do think it's something else at play really fighting +PNA right now. 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, Chris78 said:

I was kind of saying it jokingly but I'd certainly take 40" again over 36 hours lol.

Not if it melts away in 3 days.

[clskinsfan]

WWA up for my area. Didnt even notice it.

 

MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-505>508-
526-WVZ050>053-055-061700-
Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-
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Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-
Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-
Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-
Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Northwest Prince William-Hampshire-
Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy-
1158 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern West
Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western
Maryland.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the Northern Virginia
Blue Ridge starting at 8 PM.

[WVclimo]

11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Not if it melts away in 3 days.

Lol.  I measured 35.3” in that storm.  Snow stayed on the ground for more than two weeks..  even after a week, I still had more than a foot of snow depth.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

I actually just studied this lol.....65-66 and 86-87 had almost no snow in Dec and turned out well but yes...all our epic winters (40 inch or more) had significant snow in December. I wish i was alive i the 60s man....almost every year was epic and most had big Decembers

These are two of the best ENSO analogs IMO....1965 is the best all around analog, AFAIC.

[aldie 22]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

These are two of the best ENSO analogs IMO....1965 is the best all around analog, AFAIC.

There was a nice storm in January 66 in the east that resulted in my birth in September of 66. Depending on who you talk to that was an outstanding winter

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

There was a nice storm in January 66 in the east that resulted in my birth in September of 66. Depending on who you talk to that was an outstanding winter

Sounds like your pop was satisfied 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

There was a nice storm in January 66 in the east that resulted in my birth in September of 66. Depending on who you talk to that was an outstanding winter

It was kind of a one-trick pony season, as January was great, but not much else.

[CAPE]

There is a bit of a signal on the EPS (and also the GEFS) for the mid month period for a coastal storm. The h5 look overall isn't great but there are 10 or so members on the EPS with snow for the MA in the 15-18th window, some focused more along the coast. There have been hints, so something to keep an eye on. Sometimes we look past sneaky threats when the pattern is flawed, waiting for the "good" one to arrive.

[WxUSAF]

2 hours ago, mattie g said:

The look in January on the Euro monthlies is excellent, but February is out-and-out weenie. If it plays out that way, I'd be shocked if we didn't get a couple *really* good looks over the 6 weeks of prime climo.

If you look at recent mod to super Ninos that didn’t give us a MECS or better, it’s mostly not because storms of that magnitude didn’t occur, it’s that they gave us rain or mixed precip.

If you look at H5 and surface evolutions of 2-3 storms in 97-98, you’d get weak in the knees. Except it was 40F at the surface out past Hagerstown.

[87storms]

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yep, they were. Nino, Nina -PDO etc.. it still snowed!! 

For the most part, the 80s were pretty good for snow as well and made me grow up thinking significant snow was to be expected every winter.

[Ji]

12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

There is a bit of a signal on the EPS (and also the GEFS) for the mid month period for a coastal storm. The h5 look overall isn't great but there are 10 or so members on the EPS with snow for the MA in the 15-18th window, some focused more along the coast. There have been hints, so something to keep an eye on. Sometimes we look past sneaky threats when the pattern is flawed, waiting for the "good" one to arrive.

the gfs late last week kept dropping hints of this during 18z happy hours. Even gave us one storm of 1-2 feet lol

[mattie g]

13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

If you look at recent mod to super Ninos that didn’t give us a MECS or better, it’s mostly not because storms of that magnitude didn’t occur, it’s that they gave us rain or mixed precip.

If you look at H5 and surface evolutions of 2-3 storms in 97-98, you’d get weak in the knees. Except it was 40F at the surface out past Hagerstown.

New normal.

 

 

 

 

Sorry...couldn't help myself.

[WVclimo]

12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

If you look at recent mod to super Ninos that didn’t give us a MECS or better, it’s mostly not because storms of that magnitude didn’t occur, it’s that they gave us rain or mixed precip.

If you look at H5 and surface evolutions of 2-3 storms in 97-98, you’d get weak in the knees. Except it was 40F at the surface out past Hagerstown.

Having spent that winter in PG County, I was surprised when I moved to this area to discover that Martinsburg actually recorded a 20” winter.  A heavy snow in late December was the one real “clean” event, and other times there were reports like 5” of snow out of 2.5” of precip.

At least the folks measuring were doing their diligence.

[stormy]

3 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Yep. Not now. But around then. 

We can see the STJ start loading its ammo and taking aim at the SE US on recent runs, especially 12z gfs. 

I pray that you are correct.

[Shaulov4]

39 minutes ago, stormy said:

I pray that you are correct.

One thing that is a pretty good bet is that the STJ will be super active. I believe most can agree on that.

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, Shaulov4 said:

One thing that is a pretty good bet is that the STJ will be super active. I believe most can agree on that.

Only works if we have cold. Otherwise it's 35 and rain.

[stormy]

5 minutes ago, Shaulov4 said:

One thing that is a pretty good bet is that the STJ will be super active. I believe most can agree on that.

A super active STG is prayed for in Jan - Mar. 

1966 was bland on Jan. 10, but from Jan 20 thru Feb. we had historical snow.

[WxUSAF]

Late next week is worth keeping an eye on, even if just because it’s all we have besides D15+ pattern watch. 12z and 18z gfs close. Ensembles don’t look enthused, but longwave pattern has been shifting more favorable for that time.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Late next week is worth keeping an eye on, even if just because it’s all we have besides D15+ pattern watch. 12z and 18z gfs close. Ensembles don’t look enthused, but longwave pattern has been shifting more favorable for that time.

Looks like a split flow

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

These are two of the best ENSO analogs IMO....1965 is the best all around analog, AFAIC.

I agree and I went big in my snowfall forecast but to play devils advocate the 1966 could be a risky repeat. A significant portion of the January snow was from a triple phased storm. All of the Feb snow was from a very marginal storm where temps were near freezing. Would that even work anymore. Take away that huge January storm and if the Feb storm is a mixed mess v snow and that season wasn’t that good anymore.