December Mid/Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

lol

 

[Ji]

  On 12/4/2023 at 9:59 PM, CAPE said:

lol
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I thought he was all in

[CAPE]

  On 12/4/2023 at 10:15 PM, Ji said:

I thought he was all in

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Those 2 dudes love to hyperbolize the chance for anomalous winter warmth.

Not the coldest look, but this doesn't look torchy heading into the holidays.

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

  On 12/4/2023 at 10:23 PM, CAPE said:

Those 2 dudes love to hyperbolize the chance for anomalous winter warmth.

Not the coldest look, but this doesn't look torchy heading into the holidays.

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500mb low over Alaska is the worst pattern for snow. 

[brooklynwx99]

  On 12/4/2023 at 10:23 PM, CAPE said:

Those 2 dudes love to hyperbolize the chance for anomalous winter warmth.

Not the coldest look, but this doesn't look torchy heading into the holidays.

 

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that look is the transition into the more favorable pattern the Weeklies have... SW trough moves east as the PNA rises, AK trough retrogrades and the -NAO develops

[Ji]

  On 12/4/2023 at 10:23 PM, CAPE said:

Those 2 dudes love to hyperbolize the chance for anomalous winter warmth.

Not the coldest look, but this doesn't look torchy heading into the holidays.

 

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the funny part is on the euro 15 day  EPS temp chart...i only saw 3 days well above normal and that was this weekend. Everything else was normal to slighty above/below. Nothing like Dec 2015

[CAPE]

  On 12/4/2023 at 10:29 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

that look is the transition into the more favorable pattern the Weeklies have... SW trough moves east as the PNA rises, AK trough retrogrades and the -NAO develops

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Yes the extended products have been consistent in the depiction of that pattern progression.

[Weather Will]

Lot of volatility in the models, look at the one run temperature swing on the GFS in day 13 +....who knows what will happen.

[psuhoffman]

  On 12/4/2023 at 10:26 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

500mb low over Alaska is the worst pattern for snow. 

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It’s retrograding. 

[CAPE]

  On 12/4/2023 at 11:01 PM, Weather Will said:

Lot of volatility in the models, look at the one run temperature swing on the GFS in day 13 +....who knows what will happen.

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Come on Will you know better. There is always going to be wild run to run swings on operational runs in the LR, esp during the winter.

[brooklynwx99]

  On 12/4/2023 at 11:06 PM, CAPE said:

Come on Will you know better. There is always going to be wild run to run swings on operational runs in the LR, esp during the winter.

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pretty favorable trend in the Pacific mid-month... PNA looks much better. nice to see this kind of trend in the medium range. probably just meaningless cold, but still

[WesternFringe]

  On 12/4/2023 at 9:52 PM, Ji said:

Something could easily happen between Christmas and new years

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I agree 100%.  The weeklies might be good for getting a general idea of what average temps over a future time period are forecast to be, and I get that.  But not sure where this idea came from that we have to average lower than normal temps over an entire week for it to snow.

[Terpeast]

Still doesn’t look like a palm-trees-can-grow-in-NYC torch to me

[CAPE]

  On 12/4/2023 at 11:19 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

pretty favorable trend in the Pacific mid-month... PNA looks much better. nice to see this kind of trend in the medium range. probably just meaningless cold, but still

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Funny I was just  about to make a post related to this. If only there were something cooking in the southern stream this would be a period to watch for a trailing wave following the cutter, with the boundary pulled southward. Decent gradient pattern look.

[Chris78]

  On 12/4/2023 at 11:21 PM, WesternFringe said:

I agree 100%.  The weeklies might be good for getting a general idea of what average temps over a future time period are forecast to be, and I get that.  But not sure where this idea came from that we have to average lower than normal temps over an entire week for it to snow.

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Especially in late December Early January.

We don't need big departures at that point.

[winter_warlock]

  On 12/4/2023 at 11:21 PM, Terpeast said:

Still doesn’t look like a palm-trees-can-grow-in-NYC torch to me

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Lol no it doesn't!!

[winter_warlock]

Here's how i wish they'd forecast snowstorms!!!  Lol!!

[CAPE]

End of the 18z GEFS run..

GEFS extended pattern progression to Xmas..

 

East coast Torch!!!!!???

 

[Eskimo Joe]

  On 12/5/2023 at 1:51 AM, CAPE said:

End of the 18z GEFS run..

GEFS extended pattern progression to Xmas..

East coast Torch!!!!!???

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Got a 2m surface temp anomaly?

[CAPE]

  On 12/5/2023 at 1:56 AM, Eskimo Joe said:

Got a 2m surface temp anomaly?

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[Ji]

Lol the 18z gfs block

[Ji]

  On 12/5/2023 at 1:59 AM, CAPE said:

Not cold enough for Will

[Chris78]

  On 12/5/2023 at 2:00 AM, Ji said:

Not cold enough for Will

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There's a yellow speck over DC proper. 

[CAPE]

  On 12/5/2023 at 2:13 AM, Chris78 said:

There's a yellow speck over DC proper. 

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Even the extended tool can resolve the DC UHI lol

[cbmclean]

  On 12/5/2023 at 2:00 AM, Ji said:

Lol the 18z gfs block

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I'll give the GFS op this: it's been entertaining lately.

[cbmclean]

  On 12/4/2023 at 2:35 PM, WxUSAF said:

It’s at the very end of the EPS and GEFS, so obviously YMMV, but you can see the start of the process shown on the weeklies and GEFSX to get us a trough in the east. That’s what I will be watching this week. 

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So there is only one question: was the can kicked today, or did it hold serve?  Seems like it held serve...so far.

[Kevin Reilly]

  On 12/4/2023 at 11:19 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

pretty favorable trend in the Pacific mid-month... PNA looks much better. nice to see this kind of trend in the medium range. probably just meaningless cold, but still

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It's a start definitely need the cold to settle in before the storms can come running up into the cold or storms developing up the coast with cold air hopefully locking in. Feels like forever since I have heard "Cold Air Damming"

[eduggs]

  On 12/5/2023 at 2:45 AM, Kevin Reilly said:

It's a start definitely need the cold to settle in before the storms can come running up into the cold or storms developing up the coast with cold air hopefully locking in. 

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Unfortunately the modeled negative 500mb anomalies centered around December 11 are very transient. Seasonable cold is gone in a day or two and there are currently no obvious shortwaves to key on in that timeframe. Hopefully something trackable materializes, but right now there's nothing much encouraging on the horizon out at least 10-15 days.

[nj2va]

  On 12/5/2023 at 3:18 AM, eduggs said:

Unfortunately the modeled negative 500mb anomalies centered around December 11 are very transient. Seasonable cold is gone in a day or two and there are currently no obvious shortwaves to key on in that timeframe. Hopefully something trackable materializes, but right now there's nothing much encouraging on the horizon out at least 10-15 days.

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I hear palm trees are growing in NYC…

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GFS....welcome rain heading in Sunday