December Mid/Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, poolz1 said:

Great explanation.  Much appreciated...my comment about the PDO truly was a question.  Wasn't trying for a doom and gloom post, just an observation.

   

    

I was trying to find this earlier- something I ran across a few years ago and thought it was a good read on the PDO. Anyway I finally found it.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/going-out-ice-cream-first-date-pacific-decadal-oscillation

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GEFS, next precip. maker most likely rain in the Sun. / Mon. period.  I do like the stormy pattern developing..and yes there are a couple colder members....so something to watch.

[Kevin Reilly]

That 18z GFS man that might be the biggest Bermuda High I have ever seen in December LOL the wild swings in the GFS has been comical from 938 mb a few days ago off the east coast to what I am seeing with HUGE Bermuda high tonight laughable but its obvious that the long range is up for grabs. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Seems like the models wanna give Wednesday a little more juice...perhaps we see our first flurries?  (It's been so long since I've seen a falling flake of any kind that I'd actually get up for that if they happen at 7 am, lol)

[jayyy]

Seems like the models wanna give Wednesday a little more juice...perhaps we see our first flurries?  (It's been so long since I've seen a falling flake of any kind that I'd actually get up for that if they happen at 7 am, lol)

Seeing how Baltimore just broke the all time record for consecutive days without at least 1” of snow, I think we’d all welcome seeing some snow fall from the sky.

[jayyy]

Most of the overnight runs were fairly ugly / dry / warm for the next 2 weeks. Things can and will of course change a bunch of times over the next several days, but it’s looking increasingly likely that we’ll have to wait a few more weeks for a winter pattern to establish itself. No need to panic over it, as this is typical in a niño, but I was definitely hoping to sneak a threat in before the inevitable mid December niño warm spell. Once we get the - NAO / -AO in place, it’s just a matter of time. Still very optimistic about late December / early January and beyond. On the bright side, it appears that we won’t go full torch this time around.

[Weather Will]

Flurry watch still in effect for tomorrow night/ Wed. Am.  Happy Monday!  WB 6Z GFS.

[Ralph Wiggum]

The WAR is a trademark of a Nino yes? I recall 2015 we fought that thing all season. Most places did end up with the 1 big January storm though. 

Eta: not trying to be a downer of a post just discussing the pattern. With that said, there is a nice trof there building into the Aleutians.

 

[WxUSAF]

10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

The WAR is a trademark of a Nino yes? I recall 2015 we fought that thing all season. Most places did end up with the 1 big January storm though. 

Eta: not trying to be a downer of a post just discussing the pattern. With that said, there is a nice trof there building into the Aleutians.

 

It’s at the very end of the EPS and GEFS, so obviously YMMV, but you can see the start of the process shown on the weeklies and GEFSX to get us a trough in the east. That’s what I will be watching this week. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

It’s at the very end of the EPS and GEFS, so obviously YMMV, but you can see the start of the process shown on the weeklies and GEFSX to get us a trough in the east. That’s what I will be watching this week. 

Something worth considering... the last time we had a nino in 20180-19 all the guidance teased us all season with a canonical nino look that was always just beyond day 10.  Sometimes it would be way out at day 15, sometimes it would make it all the way to day 10 or so before evaporating...but it never came.  The pacific remained stubbornly hostile and resistant to coupling with enso.  

 

I am NOT predicting that again, this time the nino is strong v weak.  But it's worth noting that...we want to see this move forward in time.  If we start to see the same thing happening I will definitely be aware of the lessons of that last el nino during this current PDO cycle.  

[Eskimo Joe]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It’s at the very end of the EPS and GEFS, so obviously YMMV, but you can see the start of the process shown on the weeklies and GEFSX to get us a trough in the east. That’s what I will be watching this week. 

YMMV?

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

YMMV?

Your mileage may vary

[frd]

Interesting MJO read from Don S:

<The latest MJO forecasts show a slightly longer passage through Phases 4-6 than had been shown two days earlier (Bluewave has discussed the role of sea surface temperature anomalies in foreshadowing such an outcome):

The Week 3 CFSv2 (12/18-24) and ECMWF (12/18-25) are very warm in the East (>3°C/5.4°F above normal). Were blocking to break down, the possibility of one or more days in the 60s in the region (maybe even 70° in the Baltimore-Washington area) during that timeframe would increase markedly. Beyond Week 3, the ECMWF weeklies still show cooler than normal readings in the East to start January. However, skill levels beyond two weeks are low.

The latest ENSO data shows that a basinwide strong El Niño event continues. The latest ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.1°C. The latest ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.0°C. The AAM is poised to go positive in coming days and then strongly positive through at least late December. A positive AAM often indicates patterns consistent with El Niño events. El Niño cases favor warm Decembers in the East, though there are exceptions.

With winter largely sleeping through the medium-term, New York City's and Philadelphia's record streaks without their having seen 1" or more daily snowfall will continue for the foreseeable future. New York City's ongoing streak will very likely surpass the existing record streaks at Newark (661 days) and Trenton (664 days).>

 

[CAPE]

21 minutes ago, frd said:

Interesting MJO read from Don S:

<The latest MJO forecasts show a slightly longer passage through Phases 4-6 than had been shown two days earlier (Bluewave has discussed the role of sea surface temperature anomalies in foreshadowing such an outcome):

The Week 3 CFSv2 (12/18-24) and ECMWF (12/18-25) are very warm in the East (>3°C/5.4°F above normal). Were blocking to break down, the possibility of one or more days in the 60s in the region (maybe even 70° in the Baltimore-Washington area) during that timeframe would increase markedly. Beyond Week 3, the ECMWF weeklies still show cooler than normal readings in the East to start January. However, skill levels beyond two weeks are low.

The latest ENSO data shows that a basinwide strong El Niño event continues. The latest ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.1°C. The latest ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.0°C. The AAM is poised to go positive in coming days and then strongly positive through at least late December. A positive AAM often indicates patterns consistent with El Niño events. El Niño cases favor warm Decembers in the East, though there are exceptions.

With winter largely sleeping through the medium-term, New York City's and Philadelphia's record streaks without their having seen 1" or more daily snowfall will continue for the foreseeable future. New York City's ongoing streak will very likely surpass the existing record streaks at Newark (661 days) and Trenton (664 days).>

 

The forecast jet extension in the LR would be consistent with an increase in AAM, and what is expected in a Nino. Also increases the likelihood for a +PNA with the exit region of the jet closer to the west coast. 

[clskinsfan]

3K is pretty paltry with the clipper tomorrow night. We will be lucky to see any flakes out of it at this point. 

[mappy]

36 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

3K is pretty paltry with the clipper tomorrow night. We will be lucky to see any flakes out of it at this point. 

Funny because Tony Pann was just saying he thinks Baltimore metro will see snow Wednesday morning 

[Ji]

Funny because Tony Pann was just saying he thinks Baltimore metro will see snow Wednesday morning 

Tony pann wound say it in July

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

Funny because Tony Pann was just saying he thinks Baltimore metro will see snow Wednesday morning 

That dude thought a picture from Independence Day was a real picture and I was like dude that’s from a movie and then he blocked me lol 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

It looks to me like it's a load pattern for late Dec/early Jan -NAO.. Ridge over the NE-eastern Canada and Scandinavia roll forward to about a +60dm anomaly over Greenland in 1-2 weeks. in other words, all the forecasts for cold coming around and after Christmas are giving us a blowtorch pattern before then lol. There is heavy model agreement for a +10mb in the first week of Jan too, so that may also be part of what we are seeing as a -NAO load pattern. 

[mappy]

2 hours ago, TSSN+ said:

That dude thought a picture from Independence Day was a real picture and I was like dude that’s from a movie and then he blocked me lol 

he blocked @North Balti Zen too during the Jan 2016 blizzard when Tony was going wayyyyy low and NBZ called him out on twitter for it lol 

[Ji]

the euro 15 day ensemble temp chart is kind of funny

 

i only counted 3 days of temps above normal. The rest are normal, slightly above or slightly below

 

 

[North Balti Zen]

Seven years later and I remain…blocked. 

[Ji]

16 minutes ago, mappy said:

he blocked @North Balti Zen too during the Jan 2016 blizzard when Tony was going wayyyyy low and NBZ called him out on twitter for it lol 

tony went too low on a blizzard? come on

[North Balti Zen]

Just now, Ji said:

tony went too low on a blizzard? come on

He 100% dug in on Jan 2016 storm totals being no more than 6-8 inches even as the storm was unfolding. I roasted him for a bit that AM and he blocked me. 

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

He 100% dug in on Jan 2016 storm totals being no more than 6-8 inches even as the storm was unfolding. I roasted him for a bit that AM and he blocked me. 

wow what a type for the ultimate hypster not to hype

[brooklynwx99]

the transition is still on track on the weeklies... they remain very favorable from Christmas through mid-Jan. the flip towards this pattern is also getting picked up on the end of the EPS

[Ji]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the transition is still on track on the weeklies... they remain very favorable from Christmas through mid-Jan. the flip towards this pattern is also getting picked up on the end of the EPS

yep i noticed that and i noticed towards the of the EPS, the height lines out west start to shift to a more favorable configuration as heights start to build on West Coast

[North Balti Zen]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

wow what a type for the ultimate hypster not to hype

I think his shtik is contrarian. 

[Weather Will]

On the latest WB weeklies, it takes until the 1st for the cold air to get reentrenched and hold.  

[psuhoffman]

33 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

On the latest WB weeklies, it takes until the 1st for the cold air to get reentrenched and hold.  

By January it’s cold on guidance with a favorable pattern for snow. 
 

see how easy it was to say the same thing in a less negative way.