December Mid/Long Range Discussion

[Eskimo Joe]

51 minutes ago, CAPE said:

 So you expect this h5 look to lock in like last winter then?

If we don't see a concrete shift to a more favorable pattern by Christmas, then yes. The Pacific us just overwhelming everything and so far this Nino is failing to adjust anything.

[brooklynwx99]

10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I do not. However, Nina->Nino lag/hangover can sometimes take longer to shake than we would like. Just thought those looks were incredibly similar outside of the Scan ridge building in which many of us here including myself are hoping for ie favorable AO/NAO looks which we need in a Nino. The Pac should work itself out....December Ninos are always iffy which is why a couple weeks ago I mentioned we need to be patient thru Dec because it might take some time to get there. 

the thing is that a crappy Pacific doesn't just imply some "Nina hangover". strong Ninos often have a really crappy Pacific pattern that straightens itself out later in the year. like this is a typical thing. the Nino is working as intended

what is nice is that we're already seeing blocking, which is a great sign for later in the year. also, moving through the warmer MJO phases of 4-5-6 will also dramatically weaken the SPV and perhaps even net us a SSW that can make Feb pretty wild if significant blocking develops

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I do not. However, Nina->Nino lag/hangover can sometimes take longer to shake than we would like. Just thought those looks were incredibly similar outside of the Scan ridge building in which many of us here including myself are hoping for ie favorable AO/NAO looks which we need in a Nino. The Pac should work itself out....December Ninos are always iffy which is why a couple weeks ago I mentioned we need to be patient thru Dec because it might take some time to get there. 

I agree with most of this.

Your post comparing a snapshot from the current ens means to a composite for last winter with no commentary was a bit disingenuous though. You know how some are going to respond to stuff like that. Do better.

[DarkSharkWX]

the warm phases of the mjo(4/5/6) seem to be generally transient and help to weaken the SPV bc of configs in the NPAC pattern(which are most associated w tropospheric wave driving), along w a +SCAND and an existing -NAO/-AO increasing the chances of it coupling 

[nw baltimore wx]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the thing is that a crappy Pacific doesn't just imply some "Nina hangover". strong Ninos often have a really crappy Pacific pattern that straightens itself out later in the year. like this is a typical thing. the Nino is working as intended

what is nice is that we're already seeing blocking, which is a great sign for later in the year. also, moving through the warmer MJO phases of 4-5-6 will also dramatically weaken the SPV and perhaps even net us a SSW that can make Feb pretty wild if significant blocking develops

Falling on deaf ears.

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

If we don't see a concrete shift to a more favorable pattern by Christmas, then yes. The Pacific us just overwhelming everything and so far this Nino is failing to adjust anything.

Take a break dude. Afraid you might not make it.

 

[WxUSAF]

Although Will keeps us apprised of the euro weeklies every day, I hadn’t looked at the GEFS extended in awhile. Seems like a near carbon copy of the evolution shown by the euro. After mid-month, the west coast trough begins to retrograde, our eastern CONUS ridge begins getting undercut, and eventually we end up with pretty gorgeous pattern after Xmas. 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Although Will keeps us apprised of the euro weeklies every day, I hadn’t looked at the GEFS extended in awhile. Seems like a near carbon copy of the evolution shown by the euro. After mid-month, the west coast trough begins to retrograde, our eastern CONUS ridge begins getting undercut, and eventually we end up with pretty gorgeous pattern after Xmas. 

patience is a virtue

[stormtracker]

15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

If we don't see a concrete shift to a more favorable pattern by Christmas, then yes. The Pacific us just overwhelming everything and so far this Nino is failing to adjust anything.

What are you even talking about man. For God’s sake. 
 

I hate it here sometimes. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

31 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

The eastern US is part of Scandinavia??  Who knew!?!? 

LOL, sorry @Ralph Wiggum, my comment was a weak attempt at obscure dark humor.  You mentioned the Scandinavian ridge, and I was noting the amplified ridge over the eastern US as if asking whether we're now part of Scandinavia!

[brooklynwx99]

also worth noting that strong SPV warming usually leads to a pretty crappy pattern for the E US. this is likely due to such warming occurring when the MJO is in unfavorable phases

[Weather Will]

The one thing catching my eye this am is that the day old weeklies would not reflect that the latest MJO forecast is much less amplified as it heads toward 7.  So not sure how much help we will get from the tropical forcing as we head into the second half of the month.

WB GEFS extended does not really get the cold air entrenched until the first week of January.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

18 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

What are you even talking about man. For God’s sake. 
 

I hate it here sometimes. 

Amen!  Have people forgotten what December 2015 was like during the "super-Nino"?  Record or near record warmth, a +10 temperature departure on the month, absolutely nothing wintry in sight.  Christmas Eve was practically unbearably muggy outside!  I probably have blocked it from my mind but I'm sure this place was tearing its hair out before the solstice even arrived that year!  We all know what happened in January of that winter.  Not predicting a KU storm here of course, but besides the blizzard that winter, I think a lot of people forget that Jan-Feb was actually slightly colder than normal (especially Jan) and we did have other opportunities besides the big storm but they didn't much pan out.  Now we fret over some unfavorable look toward mid-December and some want to say that's it for winter.

[CAPE]

At the end of the 6z GEFS run, we can see the beginning of the pattern progression that both the EURO weeklies and GEFS extended have been consistently depicting.

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

At the end of the 6z GEFS run, we can see the beginning of the pattern progression that both the EURO weeklies and GEFS extended have been consistently depicting.

Thanks for being the voice of reason.

[Shaulov4]

Mid Month Mid Month Mid Month Mid Month

 

[Weather Will]

Back in the shorter term, flurry watch for early Wed. am, and nice accumulation for the mountains. WB 12Z NAM.

[Terpeast]

Not even a month ago, we were expecting a mild December to start. Had the models not shown cold in mid month at all, we’d be saying “right on track as expected”

[Chris78]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Not even a month ago, we were expecting a mild December to start. Had the models not shown cold in mid month at all, we’d be saying “right on track as expected”

Your 100% correct. Werenr the seasonal models from a few months ago showing a milder December, a good looking January and a Rocking February.  

Seems like we are right on track for what the seasonals we're showing back over the summer and Early fall.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

29 minutes ago, Shaulov4 said:

Mid Month Mid Month Mid Month Mid Month

 

Somehow, I read that in the voice of the kid in "The Shining" when he said "Red Rum, Red Rum!" 

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Although Will keeps us apprised of the euro weeklies every day, I hadn’t looked at the GEFS extended in awhile. Seems like a near carbon copy of the evolution shown by the euro. After mid-month, the west coast trough begins to retrograde, our eastern CONUS ridge begins getting undercut, and eventually we end up with pretty gorgeous pattern after Xmas. 

Hmmm After Christmas.... I remember when first hearing about El Nino that this weather event usually was called so because the affects to the weather pattern often was centered around Christmas the coming of the child.

[Kay]

6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Not even a month ago, we were expecting a mild December to start. Had the models not shown cold in mid month at all, we’d be saying “right on track as expected”

Exactly. We collectively wrote off December

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, Kay said:

Exactly. We collectively wrote off December

Some times I wonder what pattern leads to not writing off December.  Seems like we pretty much do that no matter what…and usually nail it

[nj2va]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Not even a month ago, we were expecting a mild December to start. Had the models not shown cold in mid month at all, we’d be saying “right on track as expected”

Yep, that was the point I made yesterday evening too.   It seems everything is aligned to what most thought this winter would progress as (mild December with maybe some chances if things work out and flip to favorable patterns in J/F).  I don’t see anything to suggest that’s off track.  But I don’t have a Pro Forecaster yellow tag so what do I know.

[poolz1]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

The PDO really isnt a pattern driver. The phase is influenced by multiple factors, ENSO state being one. The MJO is a short term modulator and the current wave will be focused over the MC in the coming days and is largely responsible for the unfavorable looks on the PAC side imo. Beyond that the convection looks to shift into the Western PAC and weaken based on current forecasts. Ultimately the atmospheric response to a Nino should feature a NE PAC low, and the location of that going forward will become a major influence on the downstream pattern. We also have to factor in the current Strat activity and possible impacts on the h5 pattern. Upshot is the pattern is in flux and looks generally mild for the middle third of the month. End of Dec into Jan might be pretty interesting.

Great explanation.  Much appreciated...my comment about the PDO truly was a question.  Wasn't trying for a doom and gloom post, just an observation.

   

    

[87storms]

Exactly. We collectively wrote off December

Yea, but there was some hyping up of this time frame, which now is looking like an autumn pattern (yesterday was fringe t-shirt weather lol). In general, though, the idea was geared towards Jan/Feb…so not too many surprises yet.

[fujiwara79]

I thought December blowtorches are a hallmark of Super Ninos.  Look at December 1997 and 2015.

[winter_warlock]

 Now this is a rant... Tony pann a met in baltimore. Posted a model on facebook,  saying the model is predicting snow by the end of the month.  Now anyone who lnows the weather knows that the model will not look like that by the end of the month.  So why hype it??  Makes no sense and he loses credibility  in my opinion by hyping it!! .. heres the post....

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

 Now this is a rant... Tony pann a met in baltimore. Posted a model on facebook,  saying the model is predicting snow by the end of the month.  Now anyone who lnows the weather knows that the model will not look like that by the end of the month.  So why hype it??  Makes no sense and he loses credibility  in my opinion by hyping it!! .. heres the post....

It's the same as somebody posting a monthly projection here, though. Just like we say "this model still likes some snow at the end of the month"...he did the same. Now yes, Tony is a weenie like many of us, but I don't see anything wrong with this. Don't really think it's "hyping" either. Just like if somebody says the extended models favor a better pattern by then...

[winter_warlock]

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

It's the same as somebody posting a monthly projection here, though. Just like we say "this model still likes some snow at the end of the month"...he did the same. Now yes, Tony is a weenie like many of us, but I don't see anything wrong with this. Don't really think it's "hyping" either. Just like if somebody says the extended models favor a better pattern by then...

True.   Just irked me lol