December Mid/Long Range Discussion

[Weather Will]

  On 12/2/2023 at 6:47 PM, Ji said:

The mid month warmth has been modeled since September

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Correct, and this week will be watching for signs of the modeled cool down by the last week of the month.  

 

[WesternFringe]

  On 12/2/2023 at 6:42 PM, Weather Will said:

WB latest 12Z GEFS Day 11-16.

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So, over a 5 day period that starts a week and a half from now, we will average 1°F over normal cold December temps. Got it. 

[Weather Will]

The deterministic models can't handle the pattern outside 5 days at best.  Look at 12Z EURO yesterday at 240 hours compared to today at 216 hours.  30 degrees warmer on the latest run!

So outside 5 days use the best thing we have, which is the ensembles.

[stormy]

This is what I was talking about last night. That trough tries to come east but backs up as hts. build over the east.  Makes for benign conditions 8 - 20.

[North Balti Zen]

  On 12/2/2023 at 6:35 PM, nj2va said:

**Checks date…..

Yes, indeed it’s still December 2.  

But we’re talking about how apparently some are still holding onto hope for 4 weeks from now.  

I think people need to stop looking at 600 hour extended model runs.  

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YES. THIS.

[Kevin Reilly]

  On 12/2/2023 at 6:47 PM, Ji said:

The mid month warmth has been modeled since September

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I will not be wrong!  If it were Cold well?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Here's the 384hr prog though

https://ibb.co/wKX9Krm

It has some general accuracy

Of course, that could always become a big -NAO for January

[Ralph Wiggum]

  On 12/2/2023 at 6:42 PM, Weather Will said:

WB latest 12Z GEFS Day 11-16.

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Need a vomit emoji 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Look familiar? These are our last two Dec 10-18's (2021, 2022)

https://ibb.co/R3Pcbt3

[Daniel Boone]

  On 12/2/2023 at 7:33 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Look familiar? These are our last two Dec 10-18's (2021, 2022)

https://ibb.co/R3Pcbt3

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Yep. Whatever the cause, it's definitely got some strength. Bluewave may be onto something with his reasoning regarding the western Pac warmth. 

[psuhoffman]

  On 12/2/2023 at 7:45 PM, Daniel Boone said:

Yep. Whatever the cause, it's definitely got some strength. Bluewave may be onto something with his reasoning regarding the western Pac warmth. 

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I brought this up in the main ENSO thread. That western pac and IO warm pool is theorized to be a permanent feature courtesy of warming. If so, and if a strong nino isn’t enough to offset, at least we know the party’s over. 

[clskinsfan]

  On 12/2/2023 at 7:15 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Here's the 384hr prog though

https://ibb.co/wKX9Krm

It has some general accuracy

Of course, that could always become a big -NAO for January

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Yeah. I like the look of the ridging poking up into Greenland. The part that concerns me is not seeing lower heights over the Aleutians. I hope we start seeing that show up again in the long range. 

[brooklynwx99]

  On 12/2/2023 at 8:12 PM, psuhoffman said:

I brought this up in the main ENSO thread. That western pac and IO warm pool is theorized to be a permanent feature courtesy of warming. If so, and if a strong nino isn’t enough to offset, at least we know the party’s over. 

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i highly doubt it. Strong El Niños often feature a trough in the SW US anyway

a ridge over the E US is to be expected. it’s nice to see the persistent -AO/NAO though. that bodes well

[Kevin Reilly]

  On 12/2/2023 at 7:33 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Look familiar? These are our last two Dec 10-18's (2021, 2022)

https://ibb.co/R3Pcbt3

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Our new normal.

[cbmclean]

  On 12/2/2023 at 8:25 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

i highly doubt it. Strong El Niños often feature a trough in the SW US anyway

a ridge over the E US is to be expected. it’s nice to see the persistent -AO/NAO though. that bodes well

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Yeah, but that's the canonical Nino eastern CONUS Nino torch, with the big low off the waters near AK.  What's being progged is the canonical strong Nina Pacific Warm Blob which has haunted us for the past several years.  They both fail for us, but for different reasons.  PSUs point is that if the Nina-esque forcing starts shunting aside the Nino forcing, we're not just in for a bad December.

[cbmclean]

That said, I do distinctly remember a period just after New Years last winter where a big GOA low set up for a week or so and everybody was commenting on how Nino-like it looked.  But after a week or so it was gone and we went back to the Nina-fail.

Maybe this is just the payback for that escapade.  

[brooklynwx99]

  On 12/2/2023 at 8:29 PM, cbmclean said:

Yeah, but that's the canonical Nino eastern CONUS Nino torch, with the big low off the waters near AK.  What's being progged is the canonical strong Nina Pacific Warm Blob which has haunted us for the past several years.  They both fail for us, but for different reasons.  PSUs point is that if the Nina-esque forcing starts shunting aside the Nino forcing, we're not just in for a bad December.

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there is a transient period of MC forcing as the MJO circles back around to 7-8-1. i wouldn’t worry about it too much

[cbmclean]

  On 12/2/2023 at 8:39 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

there is a transient period of MC forcing as the MJO circles back around to 7-8-1. i wouldn’t worry about it too much

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For sure, the 4-6 loop been progged for some while.  I'll just be happier when I see it in the rear-view mirror. 

[frd]

  On 12/2/2023 at 8:28 PM, Kevin Reilly said:

Our new normal.

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Like clockwork.

However,  I  believe phase 7 is the warmest MJO phase. Just need to move forward, which appears we will.   

Even though the modeling has trended warmer sensing the changes in the Pac, along with a more negative PNA versus neutral, is that the AO continues to be forecasted very negative, and remaining so for the medium term, rather unusual, but bodes well for us very late month and in Jan. and Feb.        

[Blizzard of 93]

  On 12/2/2023 at 8:51 PM, frd said:

Like clockwork.

However,  I  believe phase 7 is the warmest MJO phase. Just need to move forward, which appears we will.   

Even though the modeling has trended warmer sensing the changes in the Pac, along with a more negative PNA versus neutral, is that the AO continues to be forecasted very negative, and remaining so for the medium term, rather unusual, but bodes well for us very late month and in Jan. and Feb.        

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MJO phase 7 is cold when centered on December.

[pazzo83]

  On 12/2/2023 at 1:24 PM, ldub23 said:

JB says its coming

 

 

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lmao does this moron know how hard it is to get NYC to 0?  it's happened ONCE since 1994 and that (in 2016) was a fluke cold spell.

[psuhoffman]

  On 12/2/2023 at 8:25 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

i highly doubt it. Strong El Niños often feature a trough in the SW US anyway

a ridge over the E US is to be expected. it’s nice to see the persistent -AO/NAO though. that bodes well

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There are significant differences in the central pacific from that composite. I’m not backing down from my winter prediction. We have Ninaesque forcing right now. I highly doubt that persists all winter. My comment wasn’t a prediction. But…if we do end up with Nina forcing for the majority of the winter despite a strong nino because of what is likely a somewhat permanent artifact of warming…well that would be up there with stealing Jobu’s rum…in the words of Perdro Cerrano “very very bad”. 

[psuhoffman]

  On 12/2/2023 at 9:26 PM, pazzo83 said:

lmao this moron 

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Fixed 

[MJO812]

 

 

[Daniel Boone]

  On 12/2/2023 at 8:12 PM, psuhoffman said:

I brought this up in the main ENSO thread. That western pac and IO warm pool is theorized to be a permanent feature courtesy of warming. If so, and if a strong nino isn’t enough to offset, at least we know the party’s over. 

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Exactly. 

[DarkSharkWX]

weeklies been very consistent w late dec-early jan signal and is moving in time, fits w mjo/spv progression

[CAPE]

  On 12/2/2023 at 6:42 PM, Weather Will said:

WB latest 12Z GEFS Day 11-16.

 

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Roll that forward and there will be an Aleutian trough as the TPV shifts west, a neutral/+PNA as the NE Pac ridge pushes east and amplifies underneath, and the SW trough progresses across the south/central US towards the east coast. Plus we have a developing NA block. I could be wrong, but that makes some sense in a Nino with the expected shift in tropical forcing going forward. The extended tools pretty much agree, and that's the best available guidance we have based on the end of the ens runs that everyone seems so convinced has the right idea wrt the 'crappy' look.

[nj2va]

This aligns to what the early seasonal models / many predicted for how the winter would go.  Seems everything is still aligned.

 

[ldub23]

  On 12/2/2023 at 9:26 PM, pazzo83 said:

lmao does this moron know how hard it is to get NYC to 0?  it's happened ONCE since 1994 and that (in 2016) was a fluke cold spell.

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JAN 1994 was chilly  in NYC with 3 lows  of  zero or  colder

 

Maybe this  is the  beginning  of the  pattern change. We are  not at the  beginning  of the end  but the end  of the  beginning

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

First time the  cold  has  dug  in with a storm

 

 

 

 

[stormy]

  On 12/2/2023 at 10:35 PM, nj2va said:

This aligns to what the early seasonal models / many predicted for how the winter would go.  Seems everything is still aligned.

 

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12-21 would be perfect!!!!!  1 day after my GEFS prediction.   Thanks Allan!!!!!!!!!!!!!