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December Mid/Long Range Discussion

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted
  On 12/2/2023 at 11:02 AM, CAPE said:

Op run disclaimer, but the 6z GFS setup is how it can snow with a less than ideal Pacific pattern. Pretty textbook in the NA. There have been indications on the means for something mid month. Verbatim this would take care of the PSU correlation issue and then some.

This is close to an ideal surface pressure configuration, and the result of a well timed upper ridge over Greenland with an h5 vortex near the 50-50 position.

1702533600-fme99IsN8uY.png

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Having a solid HP in Quebec like that helps too.

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Bob Chill
Bob Chill

No matter how long of a break you take from here, nothing changes. Not.one.thing. 

mappy
mappy

Good morning --  Winter starts Friday (climatological seasons for the win), and our regular snow birds are coming back to roost for the winter. As such our threads are becoming more active, espec

stormtracker
stormtracker

Seconded. And while we're at it, yall remember when posting a model post 200 hours was scorned upon?  Remember how the community would collectively rain hell on a poster who did that?  It's not a

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

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Posted
  On 12/2/2023 at 1:29 PM, WxUSAF said:

JB’s been saying that since the 70s

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That said…I do think the MJO and strat vortex disruption imply cold will get here at some point. And I think some of that should start to be seen the second half of this month. Of course JB’s analogs are always loltastic.

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Weather Will

Weather Will

Posted
Posted
  On 12/2/2023 at 1:40 PM, CAPE said:

Not worried about the PNA phase. It's going to vary in a Nino. The most critical index at this juncture is the AO, and we have that in our favor.

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I learned the hard way last year that if the PNA approaches -3 or lower standard deviation the rest of the indices don't matter for the Mid Atlantic.  Hopefully that does not happen but it is a possibility that can't be completely discounted at this time.  The weekly control, yes I know just one member, is a torch Christmas week.  That is a warning shot....

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
  On 12/2/2023 at 3:01 PM, Weather Will said:

I learned the hard way last year that if the PNA approaches -3 or lower standard deviation the rest of the indices don't matter for the Mid Atlantic.  Hopefully that does not happen but it is a possibility that can't be completely discounted at this time.  The weekly control, yes I know just one member, is a torch Christmas week.  That is a warning shot....

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Last year was a Nina with a strong, nearly stationary NE Pac High. If that happens in a Nino then we are truly fucked and need a new hobby.

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted
  On 12/2/2023 at 3:01 PM, Weather Will said:

 The weekly control, yes I know just one member, is a torch Christmas week.  That is a warning shot....

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The usual warmth starting around the December 18 th to 20 th has been a fixture in the East the last several years. When you look at Atlantic ocean temps and the very warm Fall we have had it is easy to see that September is a summer month and Decembers are generally more fallish lately than wintery. On the flip side, March will be the wild card.  Looking at the latest data regarding the MJO and its progression and Nino SSTs it appears December overall should start to be modeled warmer and the holiday period that had some potential may not work out that way.  Sounds like a typical Nino.        

  

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
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  On 12/2/2023 at 3:09 PM, CAPE said:

Last year was a Nina with a strong, nearly stationary NE Pac High. If that happens in a Nino then we are truly fucked and need a new hobby.

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I left out last December because other aspects of the pattern were favorable enough and the massive ridge wasn't quite established early on, so we actually had a shot. Just didn't work out. Beyond that during our actual winter period we literally had no chance.

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susqushawn

susqushawn

Posted
Posted
  On 12/2/2023 at 3:31 PM, CAPE said:

I left out last December because other aspects of the pattern were favorable enough and the massive ridge wasn't quite established early on, so we actually had a shot. Just didn't work out. Beyond that during our actual winter period we literally had no chance.

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An eps projection for comparison.  That sea of okhotsk trough had been a staple

image.thumb.png.f9e0b4b5c423673ac9dd58804ebfd7e4.png

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Weather Will

Weather Will

Posted
Posted

I have not given up on the last week of December yet.  And it is not the end of the world if the can gets kicked down the road a couple weeks into mid January. I never said throw the winter away. But I am pointing out that the ensembles should start showing a shift toward an eastern trough toward the end of their runs by the end of next weekend if the holiday week has any winter potential.

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NorthArlington101

NorthArlington101

Posted
Posted
  On 12/2/2023 at 4:02 PM, Weather Will said:
I have not given up on the last week of December yet.  And it is not the end of the world if the can gets kicked down the road a couple weeks into mid January. I never said throw the winter away. But I am pointing out that the ensembles should start showing a shift toward an eastern trough toward the end of their runs by the end of next weekend if the holiday week has any winter potential.

The last week of December? I haven’t given up on Wednesday morning yet lol. GFS has some decent overnight snow showers for MD/PA border.
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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
  On 12/2/2023 at 3:31 PM, CAPE said:

I left out last December because other aspects of the pattern were favorable enough and the massive ridge wasn't quite established early on, so we actually had a shot. Just didn't work out. Beyond that during our actual winter period we literally had no chance.

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That dang sw trof blech....still gives me the shakes just seeing that map.

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

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Looking at @PrinceFrederickWx’s stats in the panic room makes me more dubious about some sort of early snow = snowy winter correlation. And even if there is a correlation, I’m dubious it’s indicative of the whole season. I just think in snowy years it snows more often and with heavier falls. And even that isn’t a super strong guide. This year probably isn’t going to be a 09-10 redux just because that was at least 1 in 150 year event, not because we had an inch December 5, 2009. A couple of the best analogs to this year had AN snowfall, but concentrated in a fairly epic 2-4 weeks. I still personally think we all get on the board this month at least once, but the bulk of the snow, no matter how much we get, is pretty sure to be in January and February (as it almost always is).

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mattie g

mattie g

Posted
Posted
  On 12/2/2023 at 4:05 PM, NorthArlington101 said:

The last week of December? I haven’t given up on Wednesday morning yet lol. GFS has some decent overnight snow showers for MD/PA border.

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Right? What’s the f’ing point ignoring the near and medium terms when we’re not looking a torch in the face? It’s just dumb.

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osfan24

osfan24

Posted
Posted
  On 12/2/2023 at 3:01 PM, Weather Will said:

I learned the hard way last year that if the PNA approaches -3 or lower standard deviation the rest of the indices don't matter for the Mid Atlantic.  Hopefully that does not happen but it is a possibility that can't be completely discounted at this time.  The weekly control, yes I know just one member, is a torch Christmas week.  That is a warning shot....

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A torch Christmas week, you say? I've never been more confident that a blockbuster Nino season is headed our way.

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
  On 12/2/2023 at 5:52 PM, Terpeast said:

For now the northern stream is very fast and strong, but was probably well forecasted for December. Still think it’ll calm down and give the STJ more room once we get to mjo 7 and beyond

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Need to hope we meet in the middle and not too much stj either. We are always looking for balance which is so hard to get. I think we get there.

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Stormchaserchuck1

Stormchaserchuck1

Posted
Posted
  On 12/2/2023 at 3:01 PM, Weather Will said:

I learned the hard way last year that if the PNA approaches -3 or lower standard deviation the rest of the indices don't matter for the Mid Atlantic.  Hopefully that does not happen but it is a possibility that can't be completely discounted at this time.  The weekly control, yes I know just one member, is a torch Christmas week.  That is a warning shot....

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The PNA stands for Pacific-North America, so it's partially calculated over our region. 1/3 of the PNA is in the N. Pacific, over the Aleutian islands in Alaska, 1/3 is on the West Coast, and 1/3 the East coast. Therefore, if the PNA like -3, that's because there's usually a ridge on the east coast downstream.  

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nj2va

nj2va

Posted
Posted
  On 12/2/2023 at 4:02 PM, Weather Will said:

I have not given up on the last week of December yet.  And it is not the end of the world if the can gets kicked down the road a couple weeks into mid January. I never said throw the winter away. But I am pointing out that the ensembles should start showing a shift toward an eastern trough toward the end of their runs by the end of next weekend if the holiday week has any winter potential.

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**Checks date…..

Yes, indeed it’s still December 2.  

But we’re talking about how apparently some are still holding onto hope for 4 weeks from now.  

I think people need to stop looking at 600 hour extended model runs.  

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