December Mid/Long Range Discussion

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GFS, with our thread the needle system, inside 8 days.  

[CAPE]

Clipper for mid next week is on life support on the means. Looked at the 6z GEFS members and there is some light precip on many, but no suggestion of snow east of the mountains. Without the early dig via shortwaves phasing, any surface development is relatively weak and too late, so not cold enough. Still time but the trends aren't great.

[CAPE]

Generally good trends in the LR wrt the longwave pattern, specifically in the NA. Continuing to see heights build into Greenland from Scandinavia. The Pacific isn't quite there yet, but that should sort itself out as the MJO progresses into the better phases.

 

[Eskimo Joe]

14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Clipper for mid next week is on life support on the means. Looked at the 6z GEFS members and there is some light precip on many, but no suggestion of snow east of the mountains. Without the early dig via shortwaves phasing, any surface development is relatively weak and too late, so not cold enough. Still time but the trends aren't great.

Kind of wonder if that's the sacrificial storm as we see things shuffle slowly towards a more favorable long wave pattern?

[psuhoffman]

8 hours ago, Deck Pic said:

it doesnt snow in december here

Lately it doesn’t snow much ever here… there was a time when it did snow some in December and that was when it tended to snow more overall also. Am I the only one who thinks those two facts are related. 

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Not sure why anyone would care too much about a seasonal tool at this point. Winter is here. We have better options for guidance at least in to Jan. Maybe beyond that you give it some consideration. Having said all that, what's wrong with it? The general h5 depiction for Feb and March look especially good. 

 

2 hours ago, Ji said:

Especially a seasonal tool for the current month

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk
 

I said we’re not all gonna make it. 

[brooklynwx99]

i do like the B-K Sea / Scandi ridging showing up on all ENS. that helps weaken the SPV as well as perhaps retrograde into the NAO domain

[Weather Will]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Clipper for mid next week is on life support on the means. Looked at the 6z GEFS members and there is some light precip on many, but no suggestion of snow east of the mountains. Without the early dig via shortwaves phasing, any surface development is relatively weak and too late, so not cold enough. Still time but the trends aren't great.

Would the higher resolution GFS, pick up on a small system faster than GEFS?

[Weather Will]

42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Lately it doesn’t snow much ever here… there was a time when it did snow some in December and that was when it tended to snow more overall also. Am I the only one who thinks those two facts are related. 

 

I said we’re not all gonna make it. 

I posted the current month to make the point that it not in sync with its own weeklies, which are cooler late month.  The warning shot from the Can. seasonal is that there is no cold air through January.

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Would the higher resolution GFS, pick up on a small system faster than GEFS?

The GEFS members run at higher resolution since the FV3 upgrade a few years ago, so they can resolve more detail than previously. The primary purpose of the ensembles is to quantify the uncertainty, which is always higher at longer range. There is general support for a 'small' system among the members, pretty much in line with the latest the op runs, but nothing like the 12z op run of yesterday. That outcome was/is pretty unlikely.

[Chris78]

27 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I posted the current month to make the point that it not in sync with its own weeklies, which are cooler late month.  The warning shot from the Can. seasonal is that there is no cold air through January.

I'm glad I lowered my snow totals in the contest at the last minute lol.

[Ji]

54 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I posted the current month to make the point that it not in sync with its own weeklies, which are cooler late month.  The warning shot from the Can. seasonal is that there is no cold air through January.

seasonal models cant pickup on the cold weeks that can happen in a "warm" month. We will have cold in January...maybe not wall to wall but we will have chances

[frd]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i do like the B-K Sea / Scandi ridging showing up on all ENS. that helps weaken the SPV as well as perhaps retrograde into the NAO domain

May trigger a SSWE 

Not that we need it, but it is interesting. 

Latest AO observation forecast looks favorable for an early season weak polar  vortex. 

 

 

[87storms]

There is some truth to us being generally horrendous at December snow, though I think the biggest concern is whether locations north and west of the cities can at least score.  I went ham in 2013-2015 wrt to taking pics and vids of just about every single winter event and even in 2013/14 (a top shelf, Buffalo Trace Distillery-level winter), the first significant event was on December 8 (and I had to drive to Germantown for the goods).  For 2014/15, I only have a minor jeep topper on Nov 26 and really nothing until January (which is when that winter started poppin').  For the dirt old folks (which I'm starting to inch towards lol), I think we have some selective memory bias about December events because they stand out.  With that said, I don't think we want to go through December mild...I can't see that as a very good indicator of a "wall to wall" winter, though it probably doesn't mean anything in regards to whether we end up above average in snowfall since January and February are by far our most productive months.  Personally, I like having a 2-3 month long winter.  I do not like cold and dry/windy, though I understand the rationale behind seeking that type of pattern for increased snow chances.

[ldub23]

This  pattern will never work. 1 or 2 days  of  cool followed  by rapid warm-ups. Nice for lake effect as  it  never gets so cold the  lakes totally freeze  up.

 

[Kevin Reilly]

46 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

This  pattern will never work. 1 or 2 days  of  cool followed  by rapid warm-ups. Nice for lake effect as  it  never gets so cold the  lakes totally freeze  up.

 

The Great Lakes Freezing Over that's a funny one.  When was the last time the Great Lakes Froze over all of them?

[Eskimo Joe]

50 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

This  pattern will never work. 1 or 2 days  of  cool followed  by rapid warm-ups. Nice for lake effect as  it  never gets so cold the  lakes totally freeze  up.

Very La Nina-esque, warm/wet then cold/dry.

[jayyy]

We were never forecasted to get sustained cold in early December though. The 6th-10th window has always been a “thread the needle” situation, as NWS and many on here have alluded to. Sustained cold is not forecasted to come until potentially late month, thanks to a -AO and reshuffling of the PAC via MJO moving into phases 7-8.

Wouldn’t be overly concerned if the clipper and the subsequent wave around the 9th don’t pan out. The period around the 9th does seem interesting though, as today’s GFS alluded to. Still a bit too far out to get excited over a single OP run, but the potential is certainly there with a 1033 high to our north. As CAPE has alluded to many times, the environment seems ripe for a OV primary transferring to a coastal low scenario. Today’s 6z GFS gave us mod to heavy WAA snow from a LP tracking into the OV.

[brooklynwx99]

i know the Pacific isn’t ideal at this point, but seeing the persistent -NAO signal is awesome to see for the rest of the winter

[GramaxRefugee]

1 hour ago, Kevin Reilly said:

The Great Lakes Freezing Over that's a funny one.  When was the last time the Great Lakes Froze over all of them?

Never (in satellite era). This is not too shabby 2014. (2015 about the same):

link for the curious:  https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/ice/historicalAnim/

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

not gonna lie.. I really like this pattern

https://ibb.co/2gnrgJq

maybe we'll get a few flurries yet

[Stormchaserchuck1]

48 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i know the Pacific isn’t ideal at this point, but seeing the persistent -NAO signal is awesome to see for the rest of the winter

Massive ridge over Scandinavia the last few runs.. let's see if it holds, I've noticed big shifts over the NAO region in the LR, doesn't always load when it's suppose to.  

[NorthArlington101]

EURO control gets some flurries into the area early Wednesday morning and EURO itself isn’t that far off. Temps bad though, of course

[brooklynwx99]

weeklies are straight weenie fuel from the holidays through mid Jan. makes sense as the MJO goes into favorable phases

[Weather Will]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

weeklies are straight weenie fuel from the holidays through mid Jan. makes sense as the MJO goes into favorable phases

They have been consistent for awhile.  Will be very interesting to see if the ensembles start going in this direction as we go through the next 7 days.

[Chris78]

22 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

weeklies are straight weenie fuel from the holidays through mid Jan. makes sense as the MJO goes into favorable phases

Do temps go below average?

[Jersey Andrew]

25 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

weeklies are straight weenie fuel from the holidays through mid Jan. makes sense as the MJO goes into favorable phases

What about lack of ridging on West Coast?

[Ji]

Do temps go below average?

Only when it’s dry lol

[mattie g]

26 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

weeklies are straight weenie fuel from the holidays through mid Jan. makes sense as the MJO goes into favorable phases

Those little blue pills in all the right places on that map are the *perfect* weenie fuel.

[Chris78]

8 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

What about lack of ridging on West Coast?

I think that implies a sub tropical jet. If you follow the height lines it looks like a trough in the east.