TSSN+ Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 On 11/30/2023 at 6:11 PM, Wonderdog said: Last year was a Nina. Sent from my SM-S911U using Tapatalk Expand No way! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 Can someone please start a thread? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 On 11/30/2023 at 6:20 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Can someone please start a thread? Expand Here ya go. 1 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 EURO takes the clipper aspect of the system further north -- light snow up near central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 144 on 12z Euro has 1013mb SLP along the VA/NC border 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 On 11/30/2023 at 6:32 PM, yoda said: 144 on 12z Euro has 1013mb SLP along the VA/NC border Expand inexperienced eyes say -- step in the right direction when it comes to something more notable, but no cigar. Temps also a big problem during the day weds verbatim. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 On 11/30/2023 at 6:38 PM, NorthArlington101 said: inexperienced eyes say -- step in the right direction when it comes to something more notable, but no cigar. Temps also a big problem during the day weds verbatim. Expand It is. Well, I dunno...GFS esque. Could be on to something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 12Z GFS 12Z EURO 12 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 Trough on the 12z Euro is weaker and more progressive than the GFS. Canadian is, to my eyes, in between. Kind of interested to see what the UKMET has. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 According to my records, I received accumulating snow on December 5, 6 times since 2000. 2002 5.2 inches, 2003 6.5 inches, 2005 3.7 inches, 2007 1 inch, 2009 6.0 inches, 2018 1.5 inches. There's something about December 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 The way I see it, it sounds like we could already start off being ahead of last year: Actually SEEING snowflakes falling. Last year turned the troll aspect up to 1000 by not only giving just 0.2 inches, but doing at dang 4 am when nobody could see it, lol So for me even non-sticking flakes would be a good start (that and the fact that Mt. PSU may get closer to the inch ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 On 11/30/2023 at 6:44 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Trough on the 12z Euro is weaker and more progressive than the GFS. Canadian is, to my eyes, in between. Kind of interested to see what the UKMET has. Expand 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 30, 2023 Author Share Posted November 30, 2023 12z euro digs the shortwave quite a bit more than 0z. 0z gave us a little snow/mix with the low itself, but kept it all very progressive. 12z is really pretty close to the GFS. GFS just manages to get a little more neutral tilt. Looks like Ukie is maybe focusing on a different shortwave so it’s slower with the progression? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 On 11/30/2023 at 7:15 PM, WxUSAF said: 12z euro digs the shortwave quite a bit more than 0z. 0z gave us a little snow/mix with the low itself, but kept it all very progressive. 12z is really pretty close to the GFS. GFS just manages to get a little more neutral tilt. Looks like Ukie is maybe focusing on a different shortwave so it’s slower with the progression? Expand The short wave responsible for the potential Wednesday event does not get over the upper air network until midday Monday, 12/4. We'll probably see things waffle until the 00z/12z runs on Monday. I know in the past that sometimes the GFS can sniff out a northern stream dominant system quick than the Euro. This event will be an important test case to see if one model is picking up on stuff earlier than the others. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 On 11/30/2023 at 7:15 PM, WxUSAF said: 12z euro digs the shortwave quite a bit more than 0z. 0z gave us a little snow/mix with the low itself, but kept it all very progressive. 12z is really pretty close to the GFS. GFS just manages to get a little more neutral tilt. Looks like Ukie is maybe focusing on a different shortwave so it’s slower with the progression? Expand There are multiple candidates to choose from, and lots of interaction. This one will be fun to track lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 30, 2023 Author Share Posted November 30, 2023 On 11/30/2023 at 7:27 PM, CAPE said: There are multiple candidates to choose from, and lots of interaction. This one will be fun to track lol. Expand Whole winter depends on it, but yeah, no pressure. 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 On 11/30/2023 at 7:28 PM, WxUSAF said: Whole winter depends on it, but yeah, no pressure. Expand there is a huge correlation per Webberweather lol between DC getting a snowstorm on Dec 5th and the rest of winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 Just took a quick look at the 12z GEFS and EPS members. Luke warm on the idea of any snow in our region east of the mountains, with the GEFS maybe a little more enthused than the EPS. Still time! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 Hitting 61 at IAD today doesn't really bode well for the future of Dec 6 storm, besides maybe seeing a dusting on the grass. It could trend deeper, but temps are an issue this far south. 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 On 11/30/2023 at 8:27 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Hitting 61 at IAD today doesn't really bode well for the future of Dec 6 storm, besides maybe seeing a dusting on the grass. It could trend deeper, but temps are an issue this far south. Expand lol the good ole the ground is too warm post. How many times have we seen this get busted. Well mostly depend on air temp that day and rates. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 On 11/30/2023 at 8:33 PM, TSSN+ said: lol the good ole the ground is too warm post. How many times have we seen this get busted. Well mostly depend on air temp that day and rates. Expand All levels are pretty warm today. Upper levels are why it could snow at all, but I wouldn't be surprised to see mid-upper 30s temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 On 11/30/2023 at 8:27 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Hitting 61 at IAD today doesn't really bode well for the future of Dec 6 storm, besides maybe seeing a dusting on the grass. It could trend deeper, but temps are an issue this far south. What? What does 61 today have to do with 6-7 days from now though? A day or two before? Sure, we can debate… But a week? It’s just not relevant. I’ve personally witnessed 40+ degree temp drops overnight before a major snowfall. That’s not to say we will get something major or see such a large temp drop… but it can be 61 on November 30th and snow 1-3” on December 6th lol. Especially for those of us with much better climo than IAD 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 On 11/30/2023 at 8:39 PM, jayyy said: What? What does 61 today have to do with 6-7 days from now though? A day or two before? Sure, we can debate… But a week? It’s just not relevant. I’ve personally witnessed 40+ degree temp drops overnight before a major snowfall. That’s not to say we will get something major or see such a large temp drop… but it can be 61 on November 30th and snow 1-3” on December 6th lol. Especially for those of us which much better climo than IAD Expand Yeah, not worried about the high here today (50) affecting ground temps in 6 days, especially since the lows are below freezing on Monday and Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 On 11/30/2023 at 8:39 PM, jayyy said: What? What does 61 today have to do with 6-7 days from now? Expand Years of watching model setups and trends, as per current conditions. These days (for the last 8-10 months or so) model initialization is more important than you would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 model looks good for between Christmas and New Years---usually we are in despair between christmas and new years so this will be a nice change 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 On 11/30/2023 at 8:39 PM, jayyy said: What? What does 61 today have to do with 6-7 days from now though? A day or two before? Sure, we can debate… But a week? It’s just not relevant. I’ve personally witnessed 40+ degree temp drops overnight before a major snowfall. That’s not to say we will get something major or see such a large temp drop… but it can be 61 on November 30th and snow 1-3” on December 6th lol. Especially for those of us with much better climo than IAD Expand It was around 60 the day before the early Jan storm 2 years ago. It started snowing 8 hours later, and the temp was in the mid 20s with snow falling most of the next day. Not too much of a problem. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 On 11/30/2023 at 8:27 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Hitting 61 at IAD today doesn't really bode well for the future of Dec 6 storm, besides maybe seeing a dusting on the grass. It could trend deeper, but temps are an issue this far south. Expand Welp...back to the drawing board. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 Denver Colorado is laughing at this warm ground guy lol 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 On 11/30/2023 at 9:13 PM, dailylurker said: Denver Colorado is laughing at this warm ground guy lol Expand Only a problem when temps are marginal with pathetic rates. If that's the case next week we can all enjoy snow tv. Better than nothing. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 lol the fun lasted for 6 hours...still worth watching 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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