December Mid/Long Range Discussion

[aldie 22]

1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said:

I get it but...it has been a LONG time since we've had an actual clipper and those used to be a way to get some small scores. Given I was literally .2 last year in northern maryland, it would be nice to see actual accumulating snow from any kind of system.  

02-03 had a fair amount of light snow days if i recall...i didn't hate it

[TSSN+]

52 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

02-03 had a fair amount of light snow days if i recall...i didn't hate it

That was a great winter. It seemed like it was snowing every other day. Then we had the light snow event right before the blizzard. 

[WEATHER53]

5 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Seconded.

And while we're at it, yall remember when posting a model post 200 hours was scorned upon?  Remember how the community would collectively rain hell on a poster who did that?  It's not against the rules and I wouldn't dare make it so, but damn yall.  Rising and falling with a 270 hour run of the GFS?  1100hr model runs?  Melting down and fretting about not getting snow on what is basically November 35th?   I dunno man.  

Most anything past 5 days is useless. There is about a 20% exception to that so we will wait and see if this is that kind of winter. Ninos  can be where they get a lot right.  We will see 

Anything past  300 hours always show a mid Atlantic snowstorm. It’s called maintaining a following. The rest of it is examples with no consensus prediction and then we get down to 5 days where things start to verify much better 

[Eskimo Joe]

35 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

That was a great winter. It seemed like it was snowing every other day. Then we had the light show event right before the blizzard. 

Agreed. 2002-03 and 2009-10 were rare winters. We got the big events and the little ones. It just snowed.

[WxUSAF]

If you're into Strat vortex talk, today is a good day.  A weak Strat vortex plus MJO that should be propagating into favorable phases is a good combo for the week before Xmas and beyond.  @griteater and DT both talking about that time period as well.  

 

 

[stormy]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

what

Respectfully , we are at December 1 and still in a drought pattern in a moderate/strong  El Nino. Predictions 6 months ago from experts and long range models expected better.

"What" can be answered by when this will change.  I'm not being disrespectful, but, I would enjoy an answer that is credible.

[frd]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

If you're into Strat vortex talk, today is a good day.  A weak Strat vortex plus MJO that should be propagating into favorable phases is a good combo for the week before Xmas and beyond.  @griteater and DT both talking about that time period as well.  

 

 

 

Cold initially favoring Asia and Europe, then as the MJO progresses, along with favorable changes in Pac.,  arctic airhopefully makes it way towards us near the holidays, along with increased odds of storminess. 

Expansive cold centered near December 9 th over Europe and Asia. 

 

 

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

This hits the STJ

A little late to the phase, but it's nice to see it drop down to 958mb pretty quickly

[WxUSAF]

It’s quite typical for strat vortex disruptions to impact Europe first. 

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

This hits the STJ

A little late to the phase, but it's nice to see it drop down to 958mb pretty quickly

Yeah this is one to watch. Just need a little separation between the lead vort and this wave. Ops still all over the place on H5 though. 

[Heisy]

I can definitely see that 5-6th period being our first chance for something, whether that’s snow showers or accumulating snow. One Issue is the ridge positioning, just too far east for my liking. Doesn’t give room for the models to sharpen the trough. Long way out though.


.

[stormy]

GEFS hints at a possibility on Dec. 5.  Historically, Dec. 5 is a first snow benchmark.

[ldub23]

Blizzard cane. Might  be a few drifts

 

[CAPE]

22 minutes ago, Heisy said:

I can definitely see that 5-6th period being our first chance for something, whether that’s snow showers or accumulating snow. One Issue is the ridge positioning, just too far east for my liking. Doesn’t give room for the models to sharpen the trough. Long way out though.


.

Ridge position is going to be what it is based on the location if that GoA trough, which deepens with TPV energy dumping into it. Plenty of shortwave energy in the flow overtop the ridge then dropping into the base of the downstream trough, and that should sharpen it. It's pretty close to something good as is on the HH GFS.

[clskinsfan]

The one way out in lala land the following week just missed the phase. A little earlier and its bombs away. Plenty of chances coming over the next couple of weeks ya'll. Feels way better than last year. 

[Scraff]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

It’s quite typical for strat vortex disruptions to impact Europe first. 

I’d love to meet the Euro version of @Ji He probably cancelled winter in a foreign language. 

[TSSN+]

30 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

The one way out in lala land the following week just missed the phase. A little earlier and its bombs away. Plenty of chances coming over the next couple of weeks ya'll. Feels way better than last year. 

It’s 4th and 1 we need to convert the first down. 

[nj2va]

32 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

The one way out in lala land the following week just missed the phase. A little earlier and its bombs away. Plenty of chances coming over the next couple of weeks ya'll. Feels way better than last year. 

That was fun to see bomb out to 938 in the Gulf of Maine.  Agree that there will be active chances in the coming weeks.  

[MN Transplant]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

It’s 4th and 1 we need to convert the first down. 

El Niño = Tush Push

[Chris78]

10 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

It’s 4th and 1 we need to convert the first down. 

I hope we're the Eagles and not the Commanders. 

 

[CAPE]

There are faint to modest indications for something on the ensembles for around the 7th. Given the advertised chaotic nature of the flow around that ridge, determining the actual location of the shortwave(s) that would be involved, the interplay, and timing is impossible at this range. Many more model cycles required before we can know if this has legs.

[AtlanticWx]

23 minutes ago, nj2va said:

That was fun to see bomb out to 938 in the Gulf of Maine.  Agree that there will be active chances in the coming weeks.  

it's nice knowing there's a shot. just a few runs ago, GFS had a storm near that same time which was about to slam us but it didn't go far out enough

[cbmclean]

43 minutes ago, Scraff said:

I’d love to meet the Euro version of @Ji He probably cancelled winter in a foreign language. 

L'hiver est mort.

[peribonca]

55 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

L'hiver est mort.

L'hiver n'a même pas commencé!

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 hours ago, Scraff said:

I’d love to meet the Euro version of @Ji He probably cancelled winter in a foreign language. 

You mean British English? I believe it was Winston Churchill who said, "America and England are two countries separated by a common language." 

[cbmclean]

43 minutes ago, peribonca said:

L'hiver n'a même pas commencé!

Mais c'est deja fini.

[mappy]

5 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Agreed. 2002-03 and 2009-10 were rare winters. We got the big events and the little ones. It just snowed.

13-14 was a nice winter. Recorded my first trace that year at the end of November. Had a multi week stretch of snow on the ground Jan/Feb. I think we even had a trace in early April that year. 

[87storms]

2013/14 and 14/15 were each 4 month long winters, minimum. This year is giving off average vibes…which would still be a significant improvement over last year.

[Jersey Andrew]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

Ridge position is going to be what it is based on the location if that GoA trough, which deepens with TPV energy dumping into it. Plenty of shortwave energy in the flow overtop the ridge then dropping into the base of the downstream trough, and that should sharpen it. It's pretty close to something good as is on the HH GFS.

Will it be cold enough to snow in Mid-Atlantic? December 6 is my birthday so I am rooting hard for snow.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Will it be cold enough to snow in Mid-Atlantic? December 6 is my birthday so I am rooting hard for snow.

Remains to be seen. Looks chilly on the ens mean, but not especially cold. For it to work it would take a sharp shortwave with some dig, inducing a strong low just off the NC coast. A lot would have to go right, but isn't that always the case in these parts?