December Mid/Long Range Discussion

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Shoutout to the LR GFS that doesn't show snowstorms anymore if we aren't going to get snow. I've been noticing this for years.. in the early 2000s they always had a snowstorm. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

This is what I think is interesting.. we have a slight window around Dec 4-5 for cold, and we pop a SE ridge

https://ibb.co/KyLRXY8

Not all the time everything is correlated, but we saw the same thing last March. 

[Jebman]

1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Oh great just when you thought you had a chance here comes the Arabian jet streak it's always something..

 

I needed that, Red. I needed a good laugh.

However, massive Mid Atlantic snowy winter is still on track.

[Weather Will]

WB latest EURO weeklies.  Looks like after our current cold snap, it does not go well below normal again until after Christmas.  Through mid January, it is cold.

 

[ldub23]

28 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB latest EURO weeklies.  Looks like after our current cold snap, it does not go well below normal again until after Christmas.  Through mid January, it is cold.

 

Another  punt. Lets hope the  punt  gets  blocked

[Ji]

43 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB latest EURO weeklies.  Looks like after our current cold snap, it does not go well below normal again until after Christmas.  Through mid January, it is cold.

 

wow---punting again. We just lost another winter week. Although it looks like it could be doable by Dec 20th

[Chris78]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

wow---punting again. We just lost another winter week. Although it looks like it could be doable by Dec 20th

We're the Bryan Barker of punting here in the mid Atlantic. 

Anyone remember his broken nose?

I was going to post a pic but it's pretty gruesome. 

[Ji]

Just now, Chris78 said:

We're the Bryan Barker of punting here in the mid Atlantic. 

Anyone remember his broken nose?

I was going to post a pic but it's pretty gruesome. 

the MJO models look decent enough but i had a feeling that there was going to be a delay. I still think between Dec 20-25--it will be workable for a threat

[WesternFringe]

42 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Another  punt. Lets hope the  punt  gets  blocked

 

27 minutes ago, Ji said:

wow---punting again. We just lost another winter week. Although it looks like it could be doable by Dec 20th

What punt?

This board has pretty consistently been thinking a cold snap this week and next (with a small chance for a wave Dec 5/6 and a small chance for a second wave Dec 8-12) followed by a warm up before it gets cold again and we head towards peak climo in a moderate nino with some pretty nice analog years.

People need to chill.  Freaking out doesn’t make it snow.  If it did, we would have been dumped on the last 3 years.  All it does is make this board a more miserable place and turn off great posters like Bob Chill.  

[Weather Will]

This really belongs under current obs, but it is cold tonight folks.  It can still get cold.  RELAX,  plus whining about it does not make it better.  And being nasty about it really is ridiculous.  If we have a cold January we just need a little luck.

[WesternFringe]

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

This really belongs under current obs, but it is cold tonight folks.  It can still get cold.  RELAX,  plus wining about it does not make it better.  And being nasty about it really is ridiculous.  If we have a cold January we just need a little luck.

The forecast high here is 31° tomorrow and low of 14° tomorrow night!  I take, although I will be sitting by the wood stove for sure!

[clskinsfan]

Yeah. High tomorrow around freezing with 25 MPH winds. Just because it isnt snowing doesnt mean it cant feel like winter. Its gonna feel pretty brutal tomorrow. 

[BristowWx]

16 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

The forecast high here is 31° tomorrow and low of 14° tomorrow night!  I take, although I will be sitting by the wood stove for sure!

We need to cool off the bay.  This will help.  Invest now rewards later.  

[stormy]

Can anyone imagine someone who believes it's not cold enough to snow??????

Our precipitation patterns have changed whereby we are mostly cold and dry or warmer with sprinkles with fleeting troughs racing by to our northwest.

If the future includes a pattern with generous precipitation from the south or southwest, we may get lucky, otherwise.....

[Eskimo Joe]

31 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

This really belongs under current obs, but it is cold tonight folks.  It can still get cold.  RELAX,  plus whining about it does not make it better.  And being nasty about it really is ridiculous.  If we have a cold January we just need a little luck.

It would've been nice to see a weak wave slide though with this cold snap. At least get us on the board and start chipping away at the drought. Even with last weeks rain, most areas are still 8 to 10 inches below normal precipitation year to date.

[Ji]

I’m pissed off today cause cape Nov 27-28 threat didn’t work out and it was certainly cold enough

[stormy]

Just now, Ji said:

I’m pissed off today cause cape Nov 27-28 threat didn’t work out and it was certainly cold enough

Its better to be be pissed off than to be pissed on.......................... Rejoice!!!

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

44 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

 

What punt?

This board has pretty consistently been thinking a cold snap this week and next (with a small chance for a wave Dec 5/6 and a small chance for a second wave Dec 8-12) followed by a warm up before it gets cold again and we head towards peak climo in a moderate nino with some pretty nice analog years.

People need to chill.  Freaking out doesn’t make it snow.  If it did, we would have been dumped on the last 3 years.  All it does is make this board a more miserable place and turn off great posters like Bob Chill.  

I always like a good FAKE PUNT!  Like the one FSU pulled against Auburn in the 2014 BCS championship game, that sparked the Seminoles' comeback win!

 

[SnowenOutThere]

Who decided 384 was the cutoff for model runs, I want to have a friendly “chat” with them tonight about the 18z gfs.

[BristowWx]

45 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Who decided 384 was the cutoff for model runs, I want to have a friendly “chat” with them tonight about the 18z gfs.

Anything inside 390 hrs is a lock.  It’s a shame we couldn’t have seen  390.  One more frame for chrissake.

[Prestige Worldwide]

https://x.com/jhomenuk/status/1729267302305026551?s=61&t=jtYSAZghIHxEA6K1a8OFsw
this doesn’t sound bad to me- ushering in the winter cold near the holidays 

[clskinsfan]

GFS with a clipper next week. Would be awesome if a clipper ends up breaking the snowless streak. 

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

GFS with a clipper next week. Would be awesome if a clipper ends up breaking the snowless streak. 

All the op models have it. Maybe this is the year the Clipper rises from the ashes

[WinterWxLuvr]

7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

GFS with a clipper next week. Would be awesome if a clipper ends up breaking the snowless streak. 

And break the clipper streak as well

[WxUSAF]

7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

GFS with a clipper next week. Would be awesome if a clipper ends up breaking the snowless streak. 

 

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

All the op models have it. Maybe this is the year the Clipper rises from the ashes

Some northern stream energy has consistently been showing up behind those rainstorms. That will be a short range track if it happens.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Is it guaranteed?

[Weather Will]

WB RRFS has it near freezing overnight in DCA and 25 Wed. Am.  We were only colder one night last winter on Feb. 4.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Who decided 384 was the cutoff for model runs, I want to have a friendly “chat” with them tonight about the 18z gfs.

That's like cutting off the Jaws music after one note, lol

[BristowWx]

6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB RRFS has it near freezing overnight in DCA and 25 Wed. Am.  We were only colder one night last winter on Feb. 4.

DCA below freezing before Dec is a perhaps a harbinger of a cold snowy winter.  Yes I’m saying there’s a chance.  

[NorthArlington101]

All the op models have it. Maybe this is the year the Clipper rises from the ashes

If a clipper gives DCA more than 2” of snow this year I’ll donate $50 to a charity of this board’s choice. Or just to the functioning of this board