December Mid/Long Range Discussion

[Eskimo Joe]

  On 11/27/2023 at 2:47 AM, Terpeast said:

Yeah we may have to wait, we do have some wiggle room in an el nino year, but it would be really nice to get on the board in Dec than waiting until mid Jan

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If we need to wait to mid Jan to get on the board then just about every snowfall forecast is in serious trouble.

[Ji]

Incredibly frustrated winter so far

[wxmvpete]

  On 11/27/2023 at 2:40 AM, Ralph Wiggum said:

Definitely going to require alot of patience. Could strike out a few times and incur meltdowns of epic proportions. May be one of those seasons we wait til Jan into Feb which could fit alot of the backloaded analog seasons. Hopefully we don't wait that long. The panic room will be packed if that's the case.

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This is a great point to bring up. Here is a chart that shows the number of days where KBWI measured >1" of snow between Nov 1 - Apr 30 (PoR dates back to 1950-51). A couple disclaimers-- I added Nov since there were a handful to pick from, and April actually never measured 1" at any point at BWI, but there have been cases where the elevated terrain to the west has managed an April snow so I wanted to include April. The table I sorted shows the most days with >1" (2002-03 was the highest with 12 days, 8 of which came in Feb).

I added a 20-yr moving average to the graph. After last year's "winter", the latest 20 year moving average shows BWI only sees 4 days during that stretch with >1". Think about that. When accounting for all those months (NDJFMA), which comes out to 181 days (not including leap years), only 4 days on average does BWI see >1". Of course, the higher terrain to the west will be higher, but it speaks to how everything genuinely needs to come just right that roughly, on average, only 2.2% of the 181 days in NDJFMA see >1" along the I-95 corridor.  That's why so many care. We know these opportunities don't come together often for simply 1" in many cases. That's why every inland cutter, late forming storm, or suppressed storm track can sting.

So why do I post these sad stats on this snow-starved forum? This is climo in essence. Dating back to Nov 1950, there have only been 12 November days that BWI picked up over 1" of snow. Including 2023, that's 73 Novembers, or 2,190 November days. And BWI got over 1" on 12 of those days. Which is less than 1%. December the numbers start to gradually go up from there, and March is still considerably better than November. As we know, January and February are the top months. I added a chart with the number of days BWI reported >1" going back to 1993-94 for fun.

So, patience. There's plenty of reasons to be optimistic, but a handful of other reasons to keep expectations in check. But it's early (as I'm trying to convey). There's a lot more of the season to go, and being patient, kind, and courteous to others will hopefully allow for healthy discussion for a season that should provide us with plenty of model watching. 

Cheers!

 

[nj2va]

I love how it’s November 26 and folks act like they know how December will go.

[TSSN+]

  On 11/27/2023 at 3:29 AM, nj2va said:

I love how it’s November 26 and folks act like they know how December will go.

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[Yeoman]

  On 11/27/2023 at 12:20 AM, stormy said:

I thought we all learned yesterday that the Euro Control is rubbish, not worthy of being posted on this site.

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Only the 1116hr map.. this one is good to go

[Yeoman]

  On 11/27/2023 at 12:45 AM, jayyy said:

LR Weekly Euro control (one ensemble member) clown map? Oof. How far we’ve fallen

I’m sure it’ll show 20” tomorrow or some shit.

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If you're ever wondering why most of the OGs rarely post around here anymore, thank this clown and his 1000hr maps

[Shaulov4]

  On 11/27/2023 at 1:47 AM, psuhoffman said:

Some of us aren’t going to make it 

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  On 11/27/2023 at 2:40 AM, Ralph Wiggum said:

Definitely going to require alot of patience. Could strike out a few times and incur meltdowns of epic proportions. May be one of those seasons we wait til Jan into Feb which could fit alot of the backloaded analog seasons. Hopefully we don't wait that long. The panic room will be packed if that's the case.

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  On 11/27/2023 at 2:47 AM, Terpeast said:

Yeah we may have to wait, we do have some wiggle room in an el nino year, but it would be really nice to get on the board in Dec than waiting until mid Jan

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[Ralph Wiggum]

  On 11/27/2023 at 2:53 AM, Eskimo Joe said:

If we need to wait to mid Jan to get on the board then just about every snowfall forecast is in serious trouble.

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There have been years we waited until Feb and still exceeded avg snowfall. I don't think anyone is backpeddaling or canceling...well, maybe Ji. I was simply noting that based on some analogs we are going to have to be patient and shouldn't be getting hopes up for wall to wall snow events from Dec 1-April. Probably setting up for a letdown if ppl are expecting that. We can hope of course but should temper expectations. Many red taggers echo this and have suggested their analog years were mostly backloaded, so there's that. 

[Miss Pixee]

Patience for the DMV and DC proper is no big deal at this point since Nov/Dec have never really been snow months save for an outlier or two...our window is pretty much January onward. So...in the meantime...take a left turn from panic city. Y'all on the northern/westernn sectors might want to freak out though.

[Jebman]

  On 11/27/2023 at 2:40 AM, Ralph Wiggum said:

Definitely going to require alot of patience. Could strike out a few times and incur meltdowns of epic proportions. May be one of those seasons we wait til Jan into Feb which could fit alot of the backloaded analog seasons. Hopefully we don't wait that long. The panic room will be packed if that's the case.

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Where is The Reaper?

Just in case the winter does not pan out and I jump, I want to be Reaped. And buried in the deep Mammoth snows.

[ldub23]

Not a good sign when severe weather instead of snow is the topic

 

 

[Miss Pixee]

  On 11/26/2023 at 1:33 AM, Jebman said:

Its blasting them so hard it looks like Palisades Tahoe last January.

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I think Colorado got pounded too.

[mattie g]

  On 11/27/2023 at 2:53 AM, Eskimo Joe said:

If we need to wait to mid Jan to get on the board then just about every snowfall forecast is in serious trouble.

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[Eskimo Joe]

Are there any analog years where the El Nino continued to strengthen into JFM? If so, how did those years fare in the snowfall department locally?

[Eskimo Joe]

Pacific Puke every year.

 

 

 

[a.salt]

  On 11/27/2023 at 10:51 AM, Jebman said:

Where is The Reaper?

Just in case the winter does not pan out and I jump, I want to be Reaped. And buried in the deep Mammoth snows.

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Pretty sure Reaper retired...too much reaping. 

[frd]

  On 11/27/2023 at 2:56 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

Pacific Puke every year.

 

 

 

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Pac jet intensifies near Japan and causes the previously modeled Western ridge to go poof. Again the very fast Pac flow overpowers. This goes back to conversations from 2018-19 regarding the Western Pac super warm pool , causing increased warmer MJO phases, which possibly last longer.  Plenty of times the last several winters where the fast Pac flow erroded Western ridge/ + PNAs, and also flooded Canada with Pac puke airmasses.  Hopefully as we go deeper into the winter season this concern may reduce,  allowing a more typical Nino Jan. and Feb to take hold.        

[WxUSAF]

A period of -PNA to start December has been very well modeled and expected for like a week? And it’s also been seasonally expected for December by almost all monthly or seasonal outlooks?

[Eskimo Joe]

  On 11/27/2023 at 3:08 PM, WxUSAF said:

A period of -PNA to start December has been very well modeled and expected for like a week? And it’s also been seasonally expected for December by almost all monthly or seasonal outlooks?

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Hope we can get that Pacific jet to relax sooner rather than later. I'm worried it's going a lot longer than modeled to spin down and we just burn through peak climo just trying to reshuffle everything.

[AlexD1990]

  On 11/27/2023 at 3:08 PM, WxUSAF said:

A period of -PNA to start December has been very well modeled and expected for like a week? And it’s also been seasonally expected for December by almost all monthly or seasonal outlooks?

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But it's more fun to panic about it 

[WxUSAF]

  On 11/27/2023 at 3:29 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

Hope we can get that Pacific jet to relax sooner rather than later. I'm worried it's going a lot longer than modeled to spin down and we just burn through peak climo just trying to reshuffle everything.

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Peak climo in mid January to mid February? I don’t see how anything that’s being shown for the next two weeks should at all change anyone’s original opinion about how this winter will shake out. If anything, there’s still plenty of reason to be more optimistic that December won’t be a complete waste of which is very much in this strong Nino winter history. 

 

[WxUSAF]

GFS and GGEM both showing coastal development in the Dec 5-7 period that @CAPE has shown a few times on the ensembles. Timing is key with active flow, but there’s cold air nearby. 

[RedSky]

  On 11/27/2023 at 2:56 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

Pacific Puke every year.

 

 

 

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Oh great just when you thought you had a chance here comes the Arabian jet streak it's always something..

 

[mattie g]

  On 11/27/2023 at 3:29 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

Hope we can get that Pacific jet to relax sooner rather than later. I'm worried it's going a lot longer than modeled to spin down and we just burn through peak climo just trying to reshuffle everything.

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Of course you are.

Or you're not and you're feeling the need to get a reaction.

[mappy]

  On 11/27/2023 at 5:36 PM, RedSky said:

Oh great just when you thought you had a chance here comes the Arabian jet streak it's always something..

 

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might as well cancel winter now before it even begins

[CAPE]

  On 11/27/2023 at 5:23 PM, WxUSAF said:

GFS and GGEM both showing coastal development in the Dec 5-7 period that @CAPE has shown a few times on the ensembles. Timing is key with active flow, but there’s cold air nearby. 

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The storm for the 5-6th looks mild on the mean but it appears some colder air works in behind it, and there are hints of another wave or 2 in the days that follow. That period should feature some decent snow in the western highlands, and if we are all lucky enough, maybe a little something for PSU land.

 

 

[CAPE]

  On 11/27/2023 at 2:56 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

Pacific Puke every year.

 

 

 

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What he is implying is a massive oversimplification of what is occurring(or advertised to occur) during that period. EAJ extensions generally favor a +PNA

[Eskimo Joe]

  On 11/27/2023 at 5:56 PM, CAPE said:

The storm for the 5-6th looks mild on the mean but it appears some colder air works in behind it, and there are hints of another wave or 2 in the days that follow. That period should feature some decent snow in the western highlands, and if we are all lucky enough, maybe a little something for PSU land.

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Heck, I'd be happy with a car topper. Just get on the board.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

  On 11/27/2023 at 3:08 PM, WxUSAF said:

A period of -PNA to start December has been very well modeled and expected for like a week? And it’s also been seasonally expected for December by almost all monthly or seasonal outlooks?

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A -PNA December during Strong Nino?  I think they were using analogs to say that December would be warm, without really knowing that ENSO correlates with -NPH(North Pacific High) (lack of samples).