December Mid/Long Range Discussion

[Bob Chill]

No matter how long of a break you take from here, nothing changes. Not.one.thing. 

[stormy]

2 minutes ago, Shaulov4 said:

1) I have never “professed” to being an expert ant anything  other than perhaps at eating Chinese food. 
 

2) The question was sincere and although it may have came across as sardonic i assure , it wasn’t. 
 

3) Thank You making me look up the word Neophyte, I will gladly add that to my much limited vocabulary. 

4) Posting a total Precipitation map of a 15 Day Euro “Control” run is just as analytical as a child picking its boogies. 

5) I have no Ego, it’s been gone since I was a teen. I don’t get heated especially over the weather. I am sorry that I have offended you and surely that wasn’t my motive but rather than throwing out cool words, I would suggest you ask whether I was being sincere prior to insulting me. Thank You 

I have never been a big fan of the 15 day EURO but it was posted here a few days ago amind a big splash so I figured I would post it.

The more I read your thoughts, the more I think we could be friends!!

Don't take anything you perceive as an insult seriously.  You're question, "is this a serious post" prompted a reply.  I gave the reply and we are fine.

[stormy]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

No matter how long of a break you take from here, nothing changes. Not.one.thing. 

Welcome back Bob!!  I have missed you.............

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

No matter how long of a break you take from here, nothing changes. Not.one.thing. 

Sorry you had to come back just to see this, lol But was just wondering yesterday if you'd see enough good to chime in! Good to see ya

[Kmlwx]

11 minutes ago, stormy said:

I have never been a big fan of the 15 day EURO but it was posted here a few days ago amind a big splash so I figured I would post it.

The more I read your thoughts, the more I think we could be friends!!

Don't take anything you perceive as an insult seriously.  You're question, "is this a serious post" prompted a reply.  I gave the reply and we are fine.

The OP Euro is NOT the same as the Euro Control...if that's indeed what you posted. Euro control is a single member of the ensembles with no perturbed conditions initially. It's NOT the OP Euro and has little value other than being a single member of the EC ENS

ETA: You literally did post the Euro ensemble control member. Not even the OP Euro run... I went back and looked. It's a single ensemble member. 

[CAPE]

22 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i know this is a LR OP run, but notice how the GoA low continually forces a WC ridge. the confluence over the east allows for a potent coastal. the Pacific  pattern is a complete departure from the last few years and is classic Nino

Bowling ball straight across taking the southern route, with no destructive interference from the NS. Nino baby.

 

[Shaulov4]

10 minutes ago, stormy said:

I have never been a big fan of the 15 day EURO but it was posted here a few days ago amind a big splash so I figured I would post it.

The more I read your thoughts, the more I think we could be friends!!

Don't take anything you perceive as an insult seriously.  You're question, "is this a serious post" prompted a reply.  I gave the reply and we are fine.

Fair enough, I shake your hand we move on 

[Chris78]

We're rounding into mid season form before winter even starts I see. 

[frd]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Bowling ball straight across taking the southern route, with no destructive interference from the NS. Nino baby.

SECSyyyyy     Me like !!!   

[Shaulov4]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Bowling ball straight across taking the southern route, with no destructive interference from the NS. Nino baby.

 

Quick question, while understanding that this will change about a billion times, what is the main cause of this “system” heading due south east? Is it the northwest energy squashing the ridge forcing heights to lower?

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Sorry you had to come back just to see this, lol But was just wondering yesterday if you'd see enough good to chime in! Good to see ya

Honestly, I've been hoping it holds off. Been down in VA working with a buddy having a blast since labor day. Outdoor work though... heh. 

Developing upper air pattern looks pretty classic for early season snow but we usually cap out at 3-5" type storms front half of Dec and they are nailbiters usually. We'll see in a week. 

I like my spot near smith mtn. Upslope is real. Smith rises 1300' above my property and it's a very steep mountain. Less than 2 miles away. NE and E flow rain is nasty here compared to 10 miles away.  If things line up, I think I'll get mini jacked. Been curious for 16 months cuz last winter was an epic snow fail lol

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Honestly, I've been hoping it holds off. Been down in VA working with a buddy having a blast since labor day. Outdoor work though... heh. 

Developing upper air pattern looks pretty classic for early season snow but we usually cap out at 3-5" type storms front half of Dec and they are nailbiters usually. We'll see in a week. 

I like my spot near smith mtn. Upslope is real. Smith rises 1300' above my property and it's a very steep mountain. Less than 2 miles away. NE and E flow rain is nasty here compared to 10 miles away.  If things line up, I think I'll get mini jacked. Been curious for 16 months cuz last winter was an epic snow fail lol

Good to "see" you Bob. Amazing what not having a Nina for once can do. We are gonna have our chances this year. Maybe they all fail. But I find that highly unlikely. 

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, Shaulov4 said:

Quick question, while understanding that this will change about a billion times, what is the main cause of this “system” heading due south east? Is it the northwest energy squashing the ridge forcing heights to lower?

It can be easier to visualize by looking at surface pressure. Sprawling HP to the north and west. Forces low pressure to move more lateral than north 

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023112518/gfs_mslpa_us_58.png

[Eskimo Joe]

32 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

No matter how long of a break you take from here, nothing changes. Not.one.thing. 

[Shaulov4]

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It can be easier to visualize by looking at surface pressure. Sprawling HP to the north and west. Forces low pressure to move more lateral than north 

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023112518/gfs_mslpa_us_58.png

Oh wow very cool thank you very much. I think I focus on 500mb too much, I gotta learn to be more diverse. 

[Eskimo Joe]

4 minutes ago, Shaulov4 said:

Oh wow very cool thank you very much. I think I focus on 500mb too much, I gotta learn to be more diverse. 

That is a key feature in east coast snow storms. Big high, snow flies.

[Jebman]

5 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That's a KU look.

Mid Atlantic is going to get obliterated by snow. 

[CAPE]

43 minutes ago, Shaulov4 said:

Quick question, while understanding that this will change about a billion times, what is the main cause of this “system” heading due south east? Is it the northwest energy squashing the ridge forcing heights to lower?

The weather we see at the surface is largely a function of the flow aloft. That's how I do my analysis. Top down. Identifying areas of speed divergence/convergence, and regions of confluence/difluence in the flow at 500 mb is a technique to predict where areas of higher and lower pressure will occur at the surface. Looking at the Jetstream level above, and 850 mb level below will also provide clues. Ultimately identifying the location of the thermal boundary between disparate(different temperature/density) air masses is a key indicator of storm track.

[Jebman]

59 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Honestly, I've been hoping it holds off. Been down in VA working with a buddy having a blast since labor day. Outdoor work though... heh. 

Developing upper air pattern looks pretty classic for early season snow but we usually cap out at 3-5" type storms front half of Dec and they are nailbiters usually. We'll see in a week. 

I like my spot near smith mtn. Upslope is real. Smith rises 1300' above my property and it's a very steep mountain. Less than 2 miles away. NE and E flow rain is nasty here compared to 10 miles away.  If things line up, I think I'll get mini jacked. Been curious for 16 months cuz last winter was an epic snow fail lol

Good to see ya again!

You, are about to have a memorable winter!!

[WxUSAF]

At least one very compelling date here

 

[AtlanticWx]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

At least one very compelling date here

 

1962, 1961 & 2009 all had >6" of snow fall in december at BWI

[stormy]

The GEFS is close to the ECM Control for the next 15 days:  Zonal flow with weak lift makes the difference.

[ldub23]

If you want to see snow turn the  kansas state  game on now  on Fox

[SnowenOutThere]

13 minutes ago, stormy said:

The GEFS is close to the ECM Control for the next 15 days:  Zonal flow with weak lift makes the difference.

I might not be that learned at weather but I'm pretty sure this is not zonal flow in the slightest

[Kmlwx]

It’s also an ensemble mean and thus will appear smoothed. 

[paulythegun]

Look at these sea temps. Offshore wind platforms are causing this! They’re diverting the Gulf Stream! (Farts, belt breaks, pants fall down)

In all seriousness, as long as December SSTs are this crazy, gonna be tough for the coastal plain to see snow in the early season without a shot of extreme cold. From now until forever. Which is why I’m watching the depth of cold air in Canada. I’ll cheer for you folks in the burbs, but in the city, we’ll need a legit cold shot or else the thermal gradient/mixing issues won’t work for us until this cools off.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EURO and GFS for Wed. Am.  Let's see which model is closer esp. inside the DC beltway.

[Daniel Boone]

40 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Mid Atlantic is going to get obliterated by snow. 

Ur the ultimate Optimist Jeb ! 

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Honestly, I've been hoping it holds off. Been down in VA working with a buddy having a blast since labor day. Outdoor work though... heh. 

Developing upper air pattern looks pretty classic for early season snow but we usually cap out at 3-5" type storms front half of Dec and they are nailbiters usually. We'll see in a week. 

I like my spot near smith mtn. Upslope is real. Smith rises 1300' above my property and it's a very steep mountain. Less than 2 miles away. NE and E flow rain is nasty here compared to 10 miles away.  If things line up, I think I'll get mini jacked. Been curious for 16 months cuz last winter was an epic snow fail lol

Nice area there Bob. Spent some time there. 

[jayyy]

Even has another potential storm afterwards. If only it wasn't so far away ... 

Baltimore bullseye — what could go wrong?

In all seriousness though… the longwave pattern is trending in a great direction for early to mid December. The -NAO seems like a lock at this point being only 4-5 days away. Very intrigued by the recent development of some models showing the AO tanking and staying negative for most of December. Couple that with a workable PAC (HUH!?), and we WILL cash in. There may not be a significant storm to kick off December, but I think we’d all welcome a nice 3-6” type event to kick things off. Have a feeling those of us who are well inland could even see a warning level snowfall before Dec. 15th if the advertised h5 pattern on ensembles holds firm.

We should all know better than to live and die by OP runs 7+ days out - particularly the clown maps. I’m sure one of the OP GFS runs tomorrow will show a flush hit. Folks are going to drive themselves nuts living and dying by run to run 10:1 snow maps on OP runs.

Watch the trends, not the clown maps. This will be the best winter we’ve had in 7+ years. That much is becoming crystal clear. Even if that bar is low, it excites the bajesus outta me.