December Mid/Long Range Discussion

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Even has another potential storm afterwards. If only it wasn't so far away ... 

[Eskimo Joe]

53 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

some weenie drew the GEPS in their basement

Yes. Yes. There we go. West coast ridge, Greenland blocking, yes.

[clskinsfan]

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yes. Yes. There we go. West coast ridge, Greenland blocking, yes.

Baffin blocking. Even better.

[Eskimo Joe]

6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Baffin blocking. Even better.

That's a KU look.

[frd]

20 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That's a KU look.

And so it begins 

[DarkSharkWX]

EPS still looks good

[Eskimo Joe]

15 minutes ago, frd said:

And so it begins 

Long ways to go. Just one dot on a line.

[cbmclean]

7 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

EPS still looks good

Still too much GOA low pumping most of the CONUS full of pack puke.  The NAO is keeping it seasonable in our areas.  Hopefully the Pacific continues to improve.

[brooklynwx99]

11 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Still too much GOA low pumping most of the CONUS full of pack puke.  The NAO is keeping it seasonable in our areas.  Hopefully the Pacific continues to improve.

there is always going to be a strong GoA low. this is still a colder than average pattern with a +PNA and blocking.

really not much to complain about

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z ensemble means are on the dry side the next 2 weeks.

[CAPE]

Latest GEFS MJO forecast takes convection into phase 3 then kills it.  Previously it was progressing into phase 4 with decreasing amplitude. This is what we would expect to see in a Nino.. the antithesis of a Nina.

[frd]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Latest GEFS MJO forecast takes convection the into phase 3 then kills it.  Previously it was progressing into phase 4 with decreasing amplitude. This is what we would expect to see in a Nino.. the antithesis of a Nina.

 

 

May emerge in phase 8 at a low amplitude prior to the holidays, meanwhile the AO looks awesome as we head into December.  

 

[frd]

 

 

SSTs of Nino region 4 have really increased recently.   This Nino is still ramping up. 

 

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, frd said:

 

 

May emerge in phase 8 at a low amplitude prior to the holidays, meanwhile the AO looks awesome as we head into December.  

 

Kinda scary, but the key indicators look good as we head into early winter. I am more optimistic about Dec than a few weeks ago.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

really not much to complain about

I'm quite sure someone will find something.

But yeah, about as good as we could hope for early Dec. No issues here.

[stormy]

The latest from the Euro for the next 15 days does not look good:

[Eskimo Joe]

51 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z ensemble means are on the dry side the next 2 weeks.

Ensemble guidance isn't going to pick up on a rogue wave or storm during this period. 

https://twitter.com/CarolineMDDES/status/1728270369281196230?t=Q--GMRs6I4v3hy3k1Om0sg&s=19

 

[Shaulov4]

7 minutes ago, stormy said:

The latest from the Euro for the next 15 days does not look good:

Is this a serious post? 

[CAPE]

21 minutes ago, Shaulov4 said:

Is this a serious post? 

I fear it is.

[North Balti Zen]

46 minutes ago, Shaulov4 said:

Is this a serious post? 

He’s such an awful poster. 

[nj2va]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'm quite sure someone will find something.

But yeah, about as good as we could hope for early Dec. No issues here.

Six minutes after this…

[stormy]

42 minutes ago, Shaulov4 said:

Is this a serious post? 

You are obviously a neophyte.  Since you profess to be an expert, challenge the ECMWF .   What are your QP predictions for the next 15 days??? I don't want a bunch of crap. I want detailed QP for the entire region for the next 15 days!   Come on , give it to me. You can't' , so chill out.

Ideally,   reasonable people express reasonable ideas on this site.  Unreasonable crap needs to die.  More and more supporters are getting disillusioned.

[Heisy]

The neg NAO starts with -PNA. 
https://ibb.co/HP6Kzqx
PNA never really goes positive through current 15-day models, so let's see if it trends (El Nino)..

This is my concern. Maybe I just have PTSD from last two years.


.

[SnowenOutThere]

5 minutes ago, stormy said:

Ideally,   reasonable people express reasonable ideas on this site.  Unreasonable crap needs to die.  More and more supporters are getting disillusioned.

Reasonable ideas like anthropogenic climate change, which I know you must totally agree with due to the vast scientific consensus on it if you claim that "unreasonable crap needs to die". Also second part is bolded because ??? 

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

This is my concern. Maybe I just have PTSD from last two years.


.

you do have PTSD most likely. luckily the Nina paradigm is over. rejoice!

[WinterFire]

11 minutes ago, stormy said:

You are obviously a neophyte.  Since you profess to be an expert, challenge the ECMWF .   What are your QP predictions for the next 15 days??? I don't want a bunch of crap. I want detailed QP for the entire region for the next 15 days!   Come on , give it to me. You can't' , so chill out.

Ideally,   reasonable people express reasonable ideas on this site.  Unreasonable crap needs to die.  More and more supporters are getting disillusioned.

Dude you posted the D15 Euro control. That is an incredibly unserious thing to take verbatim and it is *deeply* silly to die on this hill…

[brooklynwx99]

i know this is a LR OP run, but notice how the GoA low continually forces a WC ridge. the confluence over the east allows for a potent coastal. the Pacific  pattern is a complete departure from the last few years and is classic Nino

[Shaulov4]

19 minutes ago, stormy said:

You are obviously a neophyte.  Since you profess to be an expert, challenge the ECMWF .   What are your QP predictions for the next 15 days??? I don't want a bunch of crap. I want detailed QP for the entire region for the next 15 days!   Come on , give it to me. You can't' , so chill out.

Ideally,   reasonable people express reasonable ideas on this site.  Unreasonable crap needs to die.  More and more supporters are getting disillusioned.

1) I have never “professed” to being an expert at anything  other than perhaps at eating Chinese food. 
 

2) The question was sincere and although it may have came across as sardonic i assure , it wasn’t. 
 

3) Thank You making me look up the word Neophyte, I will gladly add that to my much limited vocabulary. 

4) Posting a total Precipitation map of a 15 Day Euro “Control” run is just as analytical as a child picking its boogies. 

5) I have no Ego, it’s been gone since I was a teen. I don’t get heated especially over the weather. I am sorry that I have offended you and surely that wasn’t my motive but rather than throwing out cool words, I would suggest you ask whether I was being sincere prior to insulting me. Thank You 

[stormy]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Reasonable ideas like anthropogenic climate change, which I know you must totally agree with due to the vast scientific consensus on it if you claim that "unreasonable crap needs to die". Also second part is bolded because ??? 

I have the wonderful conclusions of a well seasoned mind based on 50 years of common sense observations. It is saddenly obvious that increasing numbers of our society are delusionally captive to nonsense from people who are loons.

[Eskimo Joe]

9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i know this is a LR OP run, but notice how the GoA low continually forces a WC ridge. the confluence over the east allows for a potent coastal. the Pacific  pattern is a complete departure from the last few years and is classic Nino

It's in the perfect spot to do this. More please.