December Mid/Long Range Discussion

[WxUSAF]

Will the -NAO save winter?  Will Hoffman get his 1"?  Will we be wearing bikinis for Xmas?

[Jebman]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Will the -NAO save winter?  Will Hoffman get his 1"?  Will we be wearing bikinis for Xmas?

The -NAO will save winter. Hoffman will get his 1", and another 157" after that. No bikinis for Christmas, unless you are in Cabo San Lucas.

[Eskimo Joe]

14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

All the guidance says it's coming. Lets see of we can get the Pacific right at the same time. Good trends.

Now we're talking. This is what you want to see out west.

[Eskimo Joe]

6 hours ago, griteater said:

Solid -NAO is 4-5 days out on Euro and GFS. Ensembles are the same

 

[stormy]

The GFS has developed the same bad trait as the Euro, but of course, what do we expect beyond 300 hrs..

[Eskimo Joe]

24 minutes ago, stormy said:

The GFS has developed the same bad trait as the Euro, but of course, what do we expect beyond 300 hrs..

It's going to be hilariously painful if/when we're at New Years Eve with no snow.

[CAPE]

There are still indications for a storm on the ensembles for around Dec 6. As advertised there is a pretty classic west based -NAO with lower h5 heights off of Atlantic Canada, but because the Pacific is just transitioning to a more favorable configuration, cold air availability looks limited for this period. An OV track with some sort of coastal transfer would make sense. Highest potential for frozen would be places inland should there be a storm. We should get colder in the days that follow.

[Maestrobjwa]

11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Highest potential for frozen would be Mt. PSU should there be a storm.

Fixed 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Exactly what he is doing. Even by the numbers its a -NAO. Maybe he is arguing that the mechanism by which it forms won't result in a sustained blocking event. I could buy that.

 

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

I agree.  As currently depicted, it's a "real" -NAO.  I think he's splitting hairs that it's not forming through the one way of a Scandinavian ridge that retrogrades into the NAO domain.  But Rossby wave breaking is also a very "real" way for a -NAO to form, and that's what's happening here.  One thing I'm watching for is the orientation of the ridge.  I want to see it develop that E-W orientation that's being advertised, and not just N-S.  An E-W ridge over Greenland and Baffin is FAR more effective than a poleward oriented ridge over Greenland or Iceland.  

That’s my read of what he is talking about also but I disagree with his implied conclusion.   sometimes that fact matters more/less.  If we were in a hostile La Niña pattern an “in situ” more locally induced -nao would be less likely to help or persist. It would be quickly destructively interfered with. But in a nino these in situ naos can be repetitive and productive because the long wave pattern can constructively enhance them. 
 

It’s similar with the MJO where a brief weak 8-1-2 wave in an entrenched hostile pattern is less likely to produce results than when we get a favorable mjo in an already favorable base state. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Will the -NAO save winter?  Will Hoffman get his 1"?  Will we be wearing bikinis for Xmas?

Ha!  Well, Cleveland holds its annual Polar Bear Plunge into Lake Erie during the middle of winter (proceeds do go to charity)!!  Bunch of crazy people in bathing suits jumping into freezing water!!

[Eskimo Joe]

54 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

CFS forecasts -AO foe entire month of DEC now

 

[mattie g]

2 hours ago, stormy said:

The GFS has developed the same bad trait as the Euro, but of course, what do we expect beyond 300 hrs..

But how much precip are we going to get, and are the hillsides of the Shenandoah still going to spontaneously combust by the end of the winter?

[frd]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

The trends with the AO have been remarkable in regards to forecasts of such a deep dive into the negative. -3.0 deviation forecast for early December and no real rebound afterwards of significance.  Just need moisture and maybe we score after the 7th.  

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, frd said:

The trends with the AO have been remarkable in regards to forecasts of such a deep dive into the negative. -3.0 deviation forecast for early December and no real rebound afterwards of significance.  Just need moisture and maybe we score after the 7th.  

Yea its amazing to see a bit of potential now. Maybe we get something in the suburbs this month?

[stormy]

12 minutes ago, mattie g said:

But how much precip are we going to get, and are the hillsides of the Shenandoah still going to spontaneously combust by the end of the winter?

Believe me that is a concern but last week was a good first step to climb out of that hole.  2" down and 8" excess to go for euphoria!

[clskinsfan]

17 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea its amazing to see a bit of potential now. Maybe we get something in the suburbs this month?

I feel pretty confident that those of us to the NW will see snow over the next couple of weeks. The modelled pattern is screaming for it. The one thing that I really love seeing is the sustained lower heights over the Aleutians. If we can get even a half way decent Pac with some some sustained blocking we will have our chances.

[Prestige Worldwide]

28 minutes ago, frd said:

The trends with the AO have been remarkable in regards to forecasts of such a deep dive into the negative. -3.0 deviation forecast for early December and no real rebound afterwards of significance.  Just need moisture and maybe we score after the 7th.  

I think we are gonna be AO K

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s similar with the MJO where a brief weak 8-1-2 wave in an entrenched hostile pattern is less likely to produce results than when we get a favorable mjo in an already favorable base state

I spent the past two winters studying the MJO. And posted the forecast here a ton. I am at the point where I dont think it means a damn thing to us in a NIna. Even when it was in a favorable phase during a Nina it didnt help. Now in a Nino? 

[TSSN+]

[Maestrobjwa]

30 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Don't pay attention to modeled details of any specific threat beyond 7 days, man. You look for larger scale things not specifics. I find that watching a model run requires a certain level of emotional discipline...you can't go flying off at some discreet modeled threat changing/disappearing at D11, lol Yeah digital snow is fun to look at, but it's not to be taken literally at that range. Yeah I know if it disappears it "feels" like you've somehow "lost" it...but not so. You look more broadly at the pattern...there's a reason the more experienced posters here look at longwave patterns and such at Day 10 instead of an op run of a specific thing!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The neg NAO starts with -PNA. 

https://ibb.co/HP6Kzqx

PNA never really goes positive through current 15-day models, so let's see if it trends (El Nino)..

[TSSN+]

26 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Don't pay attention to modeled details of any specific threat beyond 7 days, man. You look for larger scale things not specifics. I find that watching a model run requires a certain level of emotional discipline...you can't go flying off at some discreet modeled threat changing/disappearing at D11, lol Yeah digital snow is fun to look at, but it's not to be taken literally at that range. Yeah I know if it disappears it "feels" like you've somehow "lost" it...but not so. You look more broadly at the pattern...there's a reason the more experienced posters here look at longwave patterns and such at Day 10 instead of an op run of a specific thing!

Ya it’s always day 10 lol 

[Daniel Boone]

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

 

That’s my read of what he is talking about also but I disagree with his implied conclusion.   sometimes that fact matters more/less.  If we were in a hostile La Niña pattern an “in situ” more locally induced -nao would be less likely to help or persist. It would be quickly destructively interfered with. But in a nino these in situ naos can be repetitive and productive because the long wave pattern can constructively enhance them. 
 

It’s similar with the MJO where a brief weak 8-1-2 wave in an entrenched hostile pattern is less likely to produce results than when we get a favorable mjo in an already favorable base state. 

In a criticizing reply tweet to margavage he actually said it was a legit -NAO and then unloaded his opinion of rest of margavages tweet, lol

[midatlanticweather]

Things will shake out! Timing and details on waves and connections will come together if we get the pattern. Trust the process and not the models. We know the elements and what needs to be on the pond to get the ducks in a row. We are in the shuffle period.. I worry like all that the timing will be a mess, but I am hopeful we will see things pan out as we hope. Time will tell... not models!  

I am very pessimistic that things happen sooner rather than later! Also, that long-range seemed to do the storm track off the coast! But I am certain we have not seen anything close to what will happen, except for some persistent cold not too far away! The dry trend is what bothers me most! 

 

 

[brooklynwx99]

the -NAO develops at like day 5. how exactly is this getting pushed back?

[brooklynwx99]

some weenie drew the GEPS in their basement

[Maestrobjwa]

13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the -NAO develops at like day 5. how exactly is this getting pushed back?

It's not--he made that post based on a Day 11 op run and that fantasy range snow the GFS showed yesterday...

[Terpeast]

We shouldn’t even be looking at op solutions past day 6. If you must, look at the run to run trends going back 4-5 runs. Then you’ll see why. 

[CAPE]

[AtlanticWx]