DarkShark's Winter Forecast 2023-24

[DarkSharkWX]

a bit late lmao, but i finished my winter forecast;its quite long so ill just put the analogs/snowfall/summary here

full read/analysis: https://tinyurl.com/223zv9ec

Analogs:

Top ENSO analogs: 1957/1965/1991*

MEI Analogs: 1986/2009

Top Pacific Analogs: 1965/1972/1995

Polar Analogs: 1957/1965/1987/2009

EMI/Orientation Analogs: 1982/1991*/2015

1957/1965/1972/1987/2009 are my highest weighted analogs

DJF Weighted Temp/Precip Composite


 

The ENSO will likely end up as a basin-wide(with more of a western lean like 1957/65 as Nino 4 warms and Nino 1+2 cools), with periods of Modoki forcing. I do not think that this is a wall to wall cold and snowy winter, but rather bouts of favorable patterns/timeframes, with most of the bulk being in the second half of the winter(Feb). I think we overall end up N-slightly AN for the winter, with Feb being BN, and Dec slightly AN, with Jan being around N. There’s too much variability and unpredictability to pinpoint specific temp anomalies for those specific months, but I still think we overall end up N-slightly AN.

Snowfall:
 

The range this winter is extremely large, with the maximum high-end potential being a top 5 winter or another horrible, low-snow winter. Strong+ ninos tend to be very boom or bust winters. With the exception of 1994/95, every analog year I had was either under 10” or over 30”. As I mentioned before, the main thing that will determine the fate of this winter is the polar domain. With the -QBO/++AMO, as well as bouts of favorable forcing setting up at times, the polar domain is looking good for this winter. While we have a -PDO, the strong El Nino will win out and override the state. The warmest anomalies being over and east of the dateline is a very good thing and very different to the forcing we’ve been seeing over the past few years. The active STJ should provide us with plenty of storm opportunities and ample moisture, snow or rain regardless. Thus, this is also the best chance since 2016 for a HECS/KU. Even if we don’t get a KU, the active STJ provides many opportunities for multiple SECS/MECS. 

That is why I went well AN for snowfall for this year. I doubt we see a near-normal year; either much BN or much AN. There is a lot of potential this year, and as of now, things seem to be looking good. The warm Atlantic will also provide extra moisture for storms. Going around the mid-range this year for snowfall doesn’t appear to be a good idea. This year definitely won’t be that cold overall, but we don’t need extreme back-to-back cold anomalies to get snowfall. All we need is one wave to time up right. With a Nino, the Pacific shouldn’t be too much of a problem this year. ENSO influences PDO, not the other way around; especially at this strength. 

I also went for a more N/S gradient in my map than a W/E gradient. The big nino years here had a more north-south orientation for the gradient than a west-east(obviously being more west still favors more). Although we’ll see some CAD storms, especially earlier in the season, I don’t think we’re going to be seeing too many of them overall. I think the PNA this year will average out to be neutral-slightly positive, with the western ridge flexing at times, increasing in frequency as the winter progresses. This should favor more Miller A/C type storms, which generally aren’t as W/E gradient oriented. 

Given how things appear to be progressing, and the best-looking year in several years, I believe that going bullish on a high snowfall winter is the right decision to make.

Summary:
 

Overall, I am sold for a well AN snowfall winter for the Mid-Atlantic and SE, and BN for NE. The strong Nino and STJ should heavily favor the MA/SE, and lead to suppression issues not much further north. ++AMO favors further S blocking, which in turn favors a further southern displaced track. Along with the STJ and other factors, the main focus of this winter on the EC will likely be the MA.

 

December, although not favored by Nino climatology, doesn’t look that bad anymore, and might be AN in snowfall, with a -NAO setting up for the early part of the month, and forcing returning to favorable phases by mid-late month. Although I expect it to still end up slightly AN, there’s definitely the possibility of the month ending up near normal. We should have a generally transient warmup in mid-Dec before returning to a favorable period later in the month. Although climo before mid-Dec is at best dubious, it is certainly possible to get some events, especially with the pattern setting up. For the month, I could see us getting a few minor events, and maybe even a moderate event. The very end of the month seems to be the best time period for something. I do not expect the PNA to be overall positive, but we could get a few transient +PNA flexes, along with HL blocking around this time. HL blocking setting up in December; and an -NAO is a very good sign for the winter and for higher-magnitude blocks to set up later in the winter. 

 

January looks to be alright, with the favorable forcing from late Dec continuing into the early part of the month. As stated previously, this month will generally be transitional, but the pattern at the start of the month will remain favorable. Thus, after early Jan, it appears to be quiet for a bit, until the end of Jan, where the pattern will become favorable again and continue into Feb. This is also when peak climo starts. Again we might see some +PNA flexes, but it should remain generally variable throughout the month. We should end up around N for this month temp-wise, and snowfall.

 

February will easily be the best part of this winter, with everything lining up: frequent +PNA flexes, favorable forcing setting up, HL blocking, active STJ, and overall peak climo should make Feb exciting. This isn’t too much of a surprise though, as Nino climatology heavily is backloaded and protrudes Feb as the coldest, snowiest month. We should definitely end up BN for this month in temps and AN in snowfall.

 

As for indices:

 

• PDO: slightly BN; -0.4 to -0.9

• AO: slightly BN; -0.2 to -0.5

• PNA: N-slightly AN; -0.1 to +0.3

• NAO: N; -0.2 to +0.2

• ENSO peak: 1.7-2.0(under super)

• ENSO Orientation: West-Tilted Basin-Wide
  
   

overall, should be a fun winter to track w/ the first real nino since 2015

 

[NorthArlington101]

Appreciate the insights… especially when they are optimistic. Thanks for sharing your hard work!

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, DarkSharkWX said:

a bit late lmao, but i finished my winter forecast;its quite long so ill just put the analogs/snowfall/summary here

full read/analysis: https://tinyurl.com/223zv9ec

Analogs:

Top ENSO analogs: 1957/1965/1991*

MEI Analogs: 1986/2009

Top Pacific Analogs: 1965/1972/1995

Polar Analogs: 1957/1965/1987/2009

EMI/Orientation Analogs: 1982/1991*/2015

1957/1965/1972/1987/2009 are my highest weighted analogs

DJF Weighted Temp/Precip Composite


 

The ENSO will likely end up as a basin-wide(with more of a western lean like 1957/65 as Nino 4 warms and Nino 1+2 cools), with periods of Modoki forcing. I do not think that this is a wall to wall cold and snowy winter, but rather bouts of favorable patterns/timeframes, with most of the bulk being in the second half of the winter(Feb). I think we overall end up N-slightly AN for the winter, with Feb being BN, and Dec slightly AN, with Jan being around N. There’s too much variability and unpredictability to pinpoint specific temp anomalies for those specific months, but I still think we overall end up N-slightly AN.

Snowfall:
 

The range this winter is extremely large, with the maximum high-end potential being a top 5 winter or another horrible, low-snow winter. Strong+ ninos tend to be very boom or bust winters. With the exception of 1994/95, every analog year I had was either under 10” or over 30”. As I mentioned before, the main thing that will determine the fate of this winter is the polar domain. With the -QBO/++AMO, as well as bouts of favorable forcing setting up at times, the polar domain is looking good for this winter. While we have a -PDO, the strong El Nino will win out and override the state. The warmest anomalies being over and east of the dateline is a very good thing and very different to the forcing we’ve been seeing over the past few years. The active STJ should provide us with plenty of storm opportunities and ample moisture, snow or rain regardless. Thus, this is also the best chance since 2016 for a HECS/KU. Even if we don’t get a KU, the active STJ provides many opportunities for multiple SECS/MECS. 

That is why I went well AN for snowfall for this year. I doubt we see a near-normal year; either much BN or much AN. There is a lot of potential this year, and as of now, things seem to be looking good. The warm Atlantic will also provide extra moisture for storms. Going around the mid-range this year for snowfall doesn’t appear to be a good idea. This year definitely won’t be that cold overall, but we don’t need extreme back-to-back cold anomalies to get snowfall. All we need is one wave to time up right. With a Nino, the Pacific shouldn’t be too much of a problem this year. ENSO influences PDO, not the other way around; especially at this strength. 

I also went for a more N/S gradient in my map than a W/E gradient. The big nino years here had a more north-south orientation for the gradient than a west-east(obviously being more west still favors more). Although we’ll see some CAD storms, especially earlier in the season, I don’t think we’re going to be seeing too many of them overall. I think the PNA this year will average out to be neutral-slightly positive, with the western ridge flexing at times, increasing in frequency as the winter progresses. This should favor more Miller A/C type storms, which generally aren’t as W/E gradient oriented. 

Given how things appear to be progressing, and the best-looking year in several years, I believe that going bullish on a high snowfall winter is the right decision to make.

Summary:
 

Overall, I am sold for a well AN snowfall winter for the Mid-Atlantic and SE, and BN for NE. The strong Nino and STJ should heavily favor the MA/SE, and lead to suppression issues not much further north. ++AMO favors further S blocking, which in turn favors a further southern displaced track. Along with the STJ and other factors, the main focus of this winter on the EC will likely be the MA.

 

December, although not favored by Nino climatology, doesn’t look that bad anymore, and might be AN in snowfall, with a -NAO setting up for the early part of the month, and forcing returning to favorable phases by mid-late month. Although I expect it to still end up slightly AN, there’s definitely the possibility of the month ending up near normal. We should have a generally transient warmup in mid-Dec before returning to a favorable period later in the month. Although climo before mid-Dec is at best dubious, it is certainly possible to get some events, especially with the pattern setting up. For the month, I could see us getting a few minor events, and maybe even a moderate event. The very end of the month seems to be the best time period for something. I do not expect the PNA to be overall positive, but we could get a few transient +PNA flexes, along with HL blocking around this time. HL blocking setting up in December; and an -NAO is a very good sign for the winter and for higher-magnitude blocks to set up later in the winter. 

 

January looks to be alright, with the favorable forcing from late Dec continuing into the early part of the month. As stated previously, this month will generally be transitional, but the pattern at the start of the month will remain favorable. Thus, after early Jan, it appears to be quiet for a bit, until the end of Jan, where the pattern will become favorable again and continue into Feb. This is also when peak climo starts. Again we might see some +PNA flexes, but it should remain generally variable throughout the month. We should end up around N for this month temp-wise, and snowfall.

 

February will easily be the best part of this winter, with everything lining up: frequent +PNA flexes, favorable forcing setting up, HL blocking, active STJ, and overall peak climo should make Feb exciting. This isn’t too much of a surprise though, as Nino climatology heavily is backloaded and protrudes Feb as the coldest, snowiest month. We should definitely end up BN for this month in temps and AN in snowfall.

 

As for indices:

 

• PDO: slightly BN; -0.4 to -0.9

• AO: slightly BN; -0.2 to -0.5

• PNA: N-slightly AN; -0.1 to +0.3

• NAO: N; -0.2 to +0.2

• ENSO peak: 1.7-2.0(under super)

• ENSO Orientation: West-Tilted Basin-Wide
  
   

overall, should be a fun winter to track w/ the first real nino since 2015

 

i agree with the boom/bust sentiment, and it seems like we’re leaning more boom than bust given the -NAO developing already

[WEATHER53]

Excellent work 

[ravensrule]

If your snow map is correct i will be doing a lot of underwear changes. 

[Terpeast]

Nice work, we’re on the same page. My outlook is pretty similar. 

[nj2va]

Thanks for the forecast and posting it! 

[ldub23]

On 11/24/2023 at 1:59 PM, DarkSharkWX said:

a bit late lmao, but i finished my winter forecast;its quite long so ill just put the analogs/snowfall/summary here

full read/analysis: https://tinyurl.com/223zv9ec

Analogs:

Top ENSO analogs: 1957/1965/1991*

MEI Analogs: 1986/2009

Top Pacific Analogs: 1965/1972/1995

Polar Analogs: 1957/1965/1987/2009

EMI/Orientation Analogs: 1982/1991*/2015

1957/1965/1972/1987/2009 are my highest weighted analogs

DJF Weighted Temp/Precip Composite


 

The ENSO will likely end up as a basin-wide(with more of a western lean like 1957/65 as Nino 4 warms and Nino 1+2 cools), with periods of Modoki forcing. I do not think that this is a wall to wall cold and snowy winter, but rather bouts of favorable patterns/timeframes, with most of the bulk being in the second half of the winter(Feb). I think we overall end up N-slightly AN for the winter, with Feb being BN, and Dec slightly AN, with Jan being around N. There’s too much variability and unpredictability to pinpoint specific temp anomalies for those specific months, but I still think we overall end up N-slightly AN.

Snowfall:
 

The range this winter is extremely large, with the maximum high-end potential being a top 5 winter or another horrible, low-snow winter. Strong+ ninos tend to be very boom or bust winters. With the exception of 1994/95, every analog year I had was either under 10” or over 30”. As I mentioned before, the main thing that will determine the fate of this winter is the polar domain. With the -QBO/++AMO, as well as bouts of favorable forcing setting up at times, the polar domain is looking good for this winter. While we have a -PDO, the strong El Nino will win out and override the state. The warmest anomalies being over and east of the dateline is a very good thing and very different to the forcing we’ve been seeing over the past few years. The active STJ should provide us with plenty of storm opportunities and ample moisture, snow or rain regardless. Thus, this is also the best chance since 2016 for a HECS/KU. Even if we don’t get a KU, the active STJ provides many opportunities for multiple SECS/MECS. 

That is why I went well AN for snowfall for this year. I doubt we see a near-normal year; either much BN or much AN. There is a lot of potential this year, and as of now, things seem to be looking good. The warm Atlantic will also provide extra moisture for storms. Going around the mid-range this year for snowfall doesn’t appear to be a good idea. This year definitely won’t be that cold overall, but we don’t need extreme back-to-back cold anomalies to get snowfall. All we need is one wave to time up right. With a Nino, the Pacific shouldn’t be too much of a problem this year. ENSO influences PDO, not the other way around; especially at this strength. 

I also went for a more N/S gradient in my map than a W/E gradient. The big nino years here had a more north-south orientation for the gradient than a west-east(obviously being more west still favors more). Although we’ll see some CAD storms, especially earlier in the season, I don’t think we’re going to be seeing too many of them overall. I think the PNA this year will average out to be neutral-slightly positive, with the western ridge flexing at times, increasing in frequency as the winter progresses. This should favor more Miller A/C type storms, which generally aren’t as W/E gradient oriented. 

Given how things appear to be progressing, and the best-looking year in several years, I believe that going bullish on a high snowfall winter is the right decision to make.

Summary:
 

Overall, I am sold for a well AN snowfall winter for the Mid-Atlantic and SE, and BN for NE. The strong Nino and STJ should heavily favor the MA/SE, and lead to suppression issues not much further north. ++AMO favors further S blocking, which in turn favors a further southern displaced track. Along with the STJ and other factors, the main focus of this winter on the EC will likely be the MA.

 

December, although not favored by Nino climatology, doesn’t look that bad anymore, and might be AN in snowfall, with a -NAO setting up for the early part of the month, and forcing returning to favorable phases by mid-late month. Although I expect it to still end up slightly AN, there’s definitely the possibility of the month ending up near normal. We should have a generally transient warmup in mid-Dec before returning to a favorable period later in the month. Although climo before mid-Dec is at best dubious, it is certainly possible to get some events, especially with the pattern setting up. For the month, I could see us getting a few minor events, and maybe even a moderate event. The very end of the month seems to be the best time period for something. I do not expect the PNA to be overall positive, but we could get a few transient +PNA flexes, along with HL blocking around this time. HL blocking setting up in December; and an -NAO is a very good sign for the winter and for higher-magnitude blocks to set up later in the winter. 

 

January looks to be alright, with the favorable forcing from late Dec continuing into the early part of the month. As stated previously, this month will generally be transitional, but the pattern at the start of the month will remain favorable. Thus, after early Jan, it appears to be quiet for a bit, until the end of Jan, where the pattern will become favorable again and continue into Feb. This is also when peak climo starts. Again we might see some +PNA flexes, but it should remain generally variable throughout the month. We should end up around N for this month temp-wise, and snowfall.

 

February will easily be the best part of this winter, with everything lining up: frequent +PNA flexes, favorable forcing setting up, HL blocking, active STJ, and overall peak climo should make Feb exciting. This isn’t too much of a surprise though, as Nino climatology heavily is backloaded and protrudes Feb as the coldest, snowiest month. We should definitely end up BN for this month in temps and AN in snowfall.

 

As for indices:

 

• PDO: slightly BN; -0.4 to -0.9

• AO: slightly BN; -0.2 to -0.5

• PNA: N-slightly AN; -0.1 to +0.3

• NAO: N; -0.2 to +0.2

• ENSO peak: 1.7-2.0(under super)

• ENSO Orientation: West-Tilted Basin-Wide
  
   

overall, should be a fun winter to track w/ the first real nino since 2015

 

very  good

[mattie g]

Nicely researched. Good luck with the forecast!

[40/70 Benchmark]

Same page in the mid Atlantic, but I do not expect below average snowfall in SNE. I see why you would go that way with the -PDO, but take a look at the +IOD years....most of the NE bone jobs were -IOD. Plus I see some residual N stream vigor due to the several year run of cool ENSO dominance. I agree that there could be a HECS that whiffs us, though. 

57-58, 86-87, 02-03....all great in SNE and all basin-wide to Modoki el Nino following triple cool ENSO. 

I also feel there may be another warm ENSO next year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Also, be careful with 2009...its a great overall analog, but I disagree about it being a great POLAR analog.....that year was ascending fresh off of solar MIN. This year, while it still may be ascending, it's just about to solar max....exotically negative seasonal NAO departures are pretty rough to find approaching solar max. Plug ins pedestrian -NAO into that season and there would be no SNE none job. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1957, 1965, 1986, 2002 and 2004 much better polar analogs IMO...all snowy in SNE, regardless of PDO.

[DarkSharkWX]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Also, be careful with 2009...its a great overall analog, but I disagree about it being a great POLAR analog.....that year was ascending fresh off of solar MIN. This year, while it still may be ascending, it's just about to solar max....exotically negative seasonal NAO departures are pretty rough to find approaching solar max. Plug ins pedestrian -NAO into that season and there would be no SNE none job. 

i didn't account for solar much in my forecast cause i couldn't find too much of a correlation w/ solar cycle and polar domain, and i thought other factors were going to override it, but ill prob have to look into it more later on

[DarkSharkWX]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Same page in the mid Atlantic, but I do not expect below average snowfall in SNE. I see why you would go that way with the -PDO, but take a look at the +IOD years....most of the NE bone jobs were -IOD. Plus I see some residual N stream vigor due to the several year run of cool ENSO dominance. I agree that there could be a HECS that whiffs us, though. 

57-58, 86-87, 02-03....all great in SNE and all basin-wide to Modoki el Nino following triple cool ENSO. 

I also feel there may be another warm ENSO next year.

main reason I went BN for SNE was due to suppression issues, but now I think SNE could end up around N - especially more inland SNE(should prob have elaborated more lmao), i think there'll be a few miller A systems that go up the coast and hit NYC/BOS in addition to the MA

and i def should have added 2003 to my top analogs as well as polar, didn't add it bc of the +PDO/modoki, but looking back in retrospect i def should have 

sm posted an analog snowfall anomaly map that gen echoes my snowfall thoughts in terms of distrubtion on the EC on twitter: 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, DarkSharkWX said:

i didn't account for solar much in my forecast cause i couldn't find too much of a correlation w/ solar cycle and polar domain, and i thought other factors were going to override it, but ill prob have to look into it more later on

Check this out.....this article is the closest thing to a "silver bullet" with respect to seasonal forecasting that I have seen.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2013JD021343

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

main reason I went BN for SNE was due to suppression issues, but now I think SNE could end up around N - especially more inland SNE(should prob have elaborated more lmao), i think there'll be a few miller A systems that go up the coast and hit NYC/BOS in addition to the MA

and i def should have added 2003 to my top analogs as well as polar, didn't add it bc of the +PDO/modoki, but looking back in retrospect i def should have 

sm posted an analog snowfall anomaly map that gen echoes my snowfall thoughts in terms of distrubtion on the EC on twitter: 

 

Well, this is why you elaborate and call it a "polar analog".....and btw, it's actually a damn good analog because while El Niño is basin wide, the forcing is more akin to Modoki, as its displaced to the west due to the lack of a bona fide Pacific dipole normally associated with El Niño. This is also why the RONI/MEI are so paltry.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Oh, I actually saw that map and loved it.....totally agree. Yea, you should have elaborated in this thread and said below normal over SE MA, and not SNE....but I get it. Your work is mid Atlantic centric.

[40/70 Benchmark]

IMO, the best overall analog is 1965....EVERY other analog is flawed in some respect, but that one.

[MN Transplant]

13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

IMO, the best overall analog is 1965....EVERY other analog is flawed in some respect, but that one.

This board would implode with a late start like 65-66.  

0.2" through January 25th.  Then an 8-day period of three storms totaling 23" in late Jan/early Feb.  Followed by a sloppy 5" storm in late Feb.

The Jan 29-30, 1966 storm does look like it was fun, though.  13.8" with highs of 16 and 17 degrees.

All stats from DCA.

[40/70 Benchmark]

41 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

This board would implode with a late start like 65-66.  

0.2" through January 25th.  Then an 8-day period of three storms totaling 23" in late Jan/early Feb.  Followed by a sloppy 5" storm in late Feb.

The Jan 29-30, 1966 storm does look like it was fun, though.  13.8" with highs of 16 and 17 degrees.

All stats from DCA.

Yea, I don't necessarily mean that winter will evolve exactly like it, but rather that solar, extra tropical Pacific, ENSO and the polar domain are all decent matches. We know how analogs work....2009 is a great analog,  but I don't expect 75" in DC.

[Jersey Andrew]

47 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

This board would implode with a late start like 65-66.  

0.2" through January 25th.  Then an 8-day period of three storms totaling 23" in late Jan/early Feb.  Followed by a sloppy 5" storm in late Feb.

The Jan 29-30, 1966 storm does look like it was fun, though.  13.8" with highs of 16 and 17 degrees.

All stats from DCA.

86-87 was a slow start too from what I remember as 9 year old in DC area. Then Double whammy 1/22 and 1/26 lays down 20 inches and February had storms too. Doubt this will be a cold winter but hoping for the snowy part.

 

 

[WVclimo]

1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

This board would implode with a late start like 65-66.  

0.2" through January 25th.  Then an 8-day period of three storms totaling 23" in late Jan/early Feb.  Followed by a sloppy 5" storm in late Feb.

The Jan 29-30, 1966 storm does look like it was fun, though.  13.8" with highs of 16 and 17 degrees.

All stats from DCA.

That 1/29-30 storm is one I’ve always regretted missing. Wasn’t quite 3 years old at the time.  But in conversations over the years with folks from suburban Maryland, they described it as a pretty fierce storm with a combination of frigid temps, heavy snow, strong winds and exceptionally high drifts. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

This was made available online back in July, but still a good read on solar phases and there effects on enso cycles. Alot of the info is beyond my current understanding at this point but my thinking is you more weather educated fellows will appreciate it.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674283423000831#:~:text=The current ascending phase of,et al.%2C 2023).

[Yardstickgozinya]

18 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

This was made available online back in July, but still a good read on solar phases and there effects on enso cycles. Alot of the info is beyond my current understanding at this point but my thinking is you more weather educated fellows will appreciate it.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674283423000831#:~:text=The current ascending phase of,et al.%2C 2023).

I just noticed the above was funded by by the National Natural Science Foundation of China. I mistakenly assumed it was Japanese.