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December 2023

brooklynwx99

By brooklynwx99,
in New York City Metro

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

More on the 2002 noreaster rain to mix - snow. A strong coastal.  Believe those were the wright weather board days.

 

http://bgmresearch.eas.cornell.edu/casestudy/2002/Dec2502/dec2502_files/dec252002.htm

Heavy thunderstorms and low 40s later in the morning to heavy snow and 5-10” in the evening near the coast.

 

CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 10.0
NY BRONX COOP 9.9
NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 9.2
NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 9.0
NY OCEANSIDE COOP 8.0
NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 8.0
NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 7.5
NY MINEOLA COOP 7.2
NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 6.3
NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 6.0
NY SEA CLIFF COOP 6.0
NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 5.7
NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 5.5
NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 5.1
NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 5.0
NJ MIDLAND PARK COOP 5.0
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jm1220
jm1220

People here forget when @bluewavewas honking as loud as anyone about the snowy patterns we’ve had. Just so happens our luck turned around and he’s calling that as he sees it. I’m sure he hopes we can

40/70 Benchmark
40/70 Benchmark

@Allsnow@SnoSki14@bluewave@snowman19Nice job on December....gotta give credit for not buying the holiday flip headfake. Nice job.

MJO812
MJO812

And Metfan 

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

It has been easier for Newark to reach 50° on Christmas since the super El Niño in 15 than reach 90° on July 4th. 
 

Data for December 25 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
Min Temperature 
Precipitation 
Snowfall 
Snow Depth 
2022-12-25 30 14 0.00 0.0 0
2021-12-25 55 38 0.16 0.0 0
2020-12-25 62 28 0.66 0.0 0
2019-12-25 48 27 0.00 0.0 0
2018-12-25 42 29 0.00 0.0 0
2017-12-25 38 28 0.20 0.1 0
2016-12-25 52 34 0.00 0.0 0
2015-12-25 63 54 0.03 0.0 0


 

Data for July 4 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
Min Temperature 
Precipitation 
Snowfall 
Snow Depth 
2023-07-04 83 74 1.19 0.0 0
2022-07-04 91 64 0.00 0.0 0
2021-07-04 84 64 0.00 0.0 0
2020-07-04 87 70 T 0.0 0
2019-07-04 89 74 0.00 0.0 0
2018-07-04 89 76 T 0.0 0
2017-07-04 88 71 T 0.0 0
2016-07-04 84 62 0.46 0.0 0
2015-07-04 79 70 T 0.0 0
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BoulderWX

BoulderWX

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, kdennis78 said:

Anyone have a good pulse on what to actually expect Tuesday night through Thursday morning (Dec. 27-29)? I'm in Morris County and I'm sweating bullets over the rain coming. How much are we looking at in a practical sense?

 Nothing at all to worry about. Looking at about .50 - 1.00”

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, kdennis78 said:

Anyone have a good pulse on what to actually expect Tuesday night through Thursday morning (Dec. 27-29)? I'm in Morris County and I'm sweating bullets over the rain coming. How much are we looking at in a practical sense?

gfs_apcpn_us_21.png

gem_apcpn_us_21.png

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rclab

rclab

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Merry Christmas, to my weather extended family. Been on this board since 2011, that’s a long time. Hope everyone had a nice day irregardless of religion. Pretty typical Christmas weather these days. To think it was -01 for my first Christmas…

Happy Christmas and Blessed New Year LBSF  and all forum members. Even through the overcast, late last night, my favorite light still did shine on the postage stamp. Stay well.  As always …..

 

IMG_7006.jpeg

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted

The issue with a pattern change in February is that you won’t get a long lasting snowpack. At most the snow sticks around for a week. 
 

when you get nice snow in December and early January you can get that glacier which sticks around for 30-40 days. 
 

so for me this winter already will fall short because we won’t have the chance for a long lasting snow pack 

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qg_omega

qg_omega

Posted
Posted
55 minutes ago, psv88 said:

The issue with a pattern change in February is that you won’t get a long lasting snowpack. At most the snow sticks around for a week. 
 

when you get nice snow in December and early January you can get that glacier which sticks around for 30-40 days. 
 

so for me this winter already will fall short because we won’t have the chance for a long lasting snow pack 

Few years ago had that massive pack for over a month.  Remember had snow stuck in my wheel causing it to unbalance and it stayed like that for weeks.  Unimaginable these days

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Heavy thunderstorms and low 40s later in the morning to heavy snow and 5-10” in the evening near the coast.

 

CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 10.0
NY BRONX COOP 9.9
NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 9.2
NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 9.0
NY OCEANSIDE COOP 8.0
NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 8.0
NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 7.5
NY MINEOLA COOP 7.2
NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 6.3
NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 6.0
NY SEA CLIFF COOP 6.0
NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 5.7
NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 5.5
NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 5.1
NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 5.0
NJ MIDLAND PARK COOP 5.0

wow look at the huge difference between JFK and Oceanside, you don't often see that.

 

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, psv88 said:

The issue with a pattern change in February is that you won’t get a long lasting snowpack. At most the snow sticks around for a week. 
 

when you get nice snow in December and early January you can get that glacier which sticks around for 30-40 days. 
 

so for me this winter already will fall short because we won’t have the chance for a long lasting snow pack 

Pattern is changing this week 

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bkviking

bkviking

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, psv88 said:

The issue with a pattern change in February is that you won’t get a long lasting snowpack. At most the snow sticks around for a week. 
 

when you get nice snow in December and early January you can get that glacier which sticks around for 30-40 days. 
 

so for me this winter already will fall short because we won’t have the chance for a long lasting snow pack 

2014-15, I was going to argue, had a long lasting snowpack after late January blizzard and I remember Port Jefferson harbor majority frozen with people able to walk out decently far on ice on March 1 (I have pictures.) but I get what you are saying - December is lost. And no matter what early January brings we probably  lose it for several weeks until (unless?) SSWE effects possibly change the pattern. Still if we can approach average snowfall but do it within a few weeks that is a positive. 

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North and West

North and West

Posted
Posted
The issue with a pattern change in February is that you won’t get a long lasting snowpack. At most the snow sticks around for a week. 
 
when you get nice snow in December and early January you can get that glacier which sticks around for 30-40 days. 
 
so for me this winter already will fall short because we won’t have the chance for a long lasting snow pack 

We had over 48” in February 2021, and I was taking snow off my roof, so it can happen in the latter half of winter.

Not as common, but I wouldn’t be bummed out because an uncommon occurrence didn’t materialize.


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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

Minneapolis reached 54° today, breaking the daily record of 51° that was set in 1922. That followed yesterday's daily record high of 55°. This is the latest-season occurrence of two consecutive high temperatures of 54° or above. The previous record was set during December 6-7, 1939.

Some of this milder air will be moving into the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. As a result, unseasonably mild weather is likely through the middle of the week. Generally warmer than normal conditions will likely prevail through most of the remainder of December.

A transition to a colder pattern lies ahead. Somewhat colder air should begin moving into the region to close December. The first week of January will likely feature somewhat below normal temperatures. However, severe cold appears unlikely. Initially, the arrival of a colder regime could coincide with a drier one. The second week of January could offer better opportunities for snowfall, as the retreat of cold air could occur as the pattern becomes wetter.

There remains some uncertainty concerning the magnitude and duration of the colder period that could develop. At this time, it appears more likely than not that it will be seasonably cold or somewhat colder than normal with a duration of 1-2 weeks.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.0°C for the week centered around December 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. El Niño conditions may strengthen somewhat further this month.  

The SOI was -9.13 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.340 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January. The latest GEFS shows a return to Atlantic blocking.

On December 23 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.303 (RMM). The December 22-adjusted amplitude was 0.894 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 43.8° (4.7° above normal). That would tie December 2023 with December 2021 as the 3rd warmest December on record. With 2023 virtually certain to be among the 10 warmest Decembers on record, 60% of New York City's 10 warmest Decembers have occurred since 2000, including 40% since 2010, and all have occurred since 1980. Records go back to 1869.

 

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gravitylover

gravitylover

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

wow look at the huge difference between JFK and Oceanside, you don't often see that.

 

Depends on where the station is. I had friends that lived by Merrick Rd and went to School 5 and they'd have delays when we didn't because they actually had snow on the ground but there was nothing more than some slush south of about Foxhurst.

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