December 2023

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, weathermedic said:

Showers in the forecast every day for the NY Metro through Friday 

Yeah I feel like despite the warmup we may not see the sun until Friday after a bit tomorrow afternoon 

[EastonSN+]

On 12/21/2023 at 6:54 PM, EastonSN+ said:

At the risk of experiencing the eye of the Tiger, wasn't last December's failure due to the depth and positioning of the west coast trough? I do not see how we could have realized success with that setup. Are there any examples of a similar setup resulting in a snowstorm for our area?

 

On 12/21/2023 at 6:57 PM, ORH_wxman said:

You’d need a huge vortex pushing down from eastern Canada to make it work. Prior to the Christmas 2002 storm we had that. A really deep SW trough into Baja but look at our area…that was setting it up for a Miller B redeveloper instead of a torching cutter. 

 

 

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

 

It would have been pretty rare for last year to work out. 2002 worked out per ORH wxman due to the huge vortex. In retrospect knowing this we should or have been that disappointed. Still not fun to have the torch other than savings.

[NEG NAO]

12Z GFS OP - shows the 1st storm passing by mid week then the upper low and more energy is left behind with not enough cold air to support frozen except in the Apps by late 12/29 early 12/30 a 993 LP off the south jersey coast - something to watch to see if colder air is somehow drawn into this system in future runs

12Z CMC shows similar system

12Z Euro has low placement too far offshore and south

[NittanyWx]

45 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

12Z GFS OP - shows the 1st storm passing by mid week then the upper low and more energy is left behind with not enough cold air to support frozen except in the Apps by late 12/29 early 12/30 a 993 LP off the south jersey coast - something to watch to see if colder air is somehow drawn into this system in future runs

12Z CMC shows similar system

Not enough cold air to tap into

[NEG NAO]

17 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

Not enough cold air to tap into

what I am also watching for is if it sits and stalls there long enough it might generate its own cold air - climatology is getting more favorable for that to happen IMO - I wouldn't even be considering this if the Canadian wasn't on board with a system along the coast - confidence increases if the Euro shows the same in a couple of hours......also  we are not even sure how much cold air will be around after the first storm passes or how strong the second system and placement along the coast will be

[ForestHillWx]

At this point anything that could trigger a snow flake is worth tracking imho. 

[psv88]

7 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

At this point anything that could trigger a snow flake is worth tracking imho. 

Lots of triggered snowflakes in this forum…

[North and West]

At this point anything that could trigger a snow flake is worth tracking imho. 

.

[winterwx21]

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays! I hope everyone who celebrates has a great holiday tomorrow with family, friends and of course all the great food. Dessert is one of my favorite parts of the holiday. Today I'm busy making chocolate chip cookies, coconut custard pie and double banana cream pie. Looking forward to tomorrow! Merry Christmas! 

Too bad we don't have any snow threats during the holidays, but the pattern for early January looks interesting as many have pointed out. Hopefully we'll have something interesting to track around New Year's time. 

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, North and West said:

.

We skipped the first 10 other than winter cancel

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Happy Holidays everyone!!

WX/PT

[Volcanic Winter]

My Christmas lights are keeping the vibe despite the uncooperative weather. It honestly helps, though there’s no replacing the real thing:

[North and West]

My Christmas lights are keeping the vibe despite the uncooperative weather. It honestly helps, though there’s no replacing the real thing:

I love that front door


.

[mannynyc]

3 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

12Z GFS OP - shows the 1st storm passing by mid week then the upper low and more energy is left behind with not enough cold air to support frozen except in the Apps by late 12/29 early 12/30 a 993 LP off the south jersey coast - something to watch to see if colder air is somehow drawn into this system in future runs

12Z CMC shows similar system

12Z Euro has low placement too far offshore and south

Not a great look on the GEFS ensembles but it's better than tracking nothing

[weatherpruf]

6 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

I know strong El Ninos can have epic snowstorms but not really a fan in general.

 

Been through enough of them that I generally write major snows off for the winter especially if December is snowless. Gotta worry about mice infestations destroying the snowblowers at this point; two years of no usage. Talking to folks in other parts of the country and it doesn't feel that wintry in most places.

[the_other_guy]

26 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Been through enough of them that I generally write major snows off for the winter especially if December is snowless. Gotta worry about mice infestations destroying the snowblowers at this point; two years of no usage. Talking to folks in other parts of the country and it doesn't feel that wintry in most places.

Somebody posted a pic of a snowy train coming out of Grand Central in the early 90s. and a lot of the comments in the general public were oh that’s when it used to snow in New York.

 

People are starting to notice now. It takes a while for the general public to notice, but people are really starting to.

 

I’ll go with my old adage… December is snowless the winter ahead is gonna be shit. Better hope for a one hit wonder because that’s probably it if we haven’t had snow by December 31

[Wxoutlooksblog]

We can wish. The pattern looks infinitely better at the end of the GFS run in the fantasy range. Finally a HP doesn't race eastward from eastern Canada and northern New England and overrunning moisture dumps lots of snow up the east coast. This at this point is nothing really but imaginary but if the fantasy maps were actually to verify we'd probably get at least 4-8" heavy wet snow. But maps on these dates will change a lot between now and then. It's encouraging however to see the model able to come up with this whereas previously we've seen pretty much nothing.

WX/PT

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

My Christmas lights are keeping the vibe despite the uncooperative weather. It honestly helps, though there’s no replacing the real thing:

You are doing a fantastic job. Really beautiful display. Even during the colder era, it didn’t  snow that much on Christmas.  2002 was our snowiest Christmas in almost 100 years. But it was a real rarity. 

Data for December 25 - NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature	Precipitation	Snowfall	Snow Depth
1909-12-25	38	31	0.34	7.0	M
1902-12-25	34	25	0.72	6.5	M
2002-12-25	37	31	1.30	5.0	M
1883-12-25	31	28	0.38	5.0	M
1904-12-25	27	21	0.16	3.0	M
1969-12-25	29	14	0.25	2.1	0
1975-12-25	33	17	0.17	0.5	T
1935-12-25	30	17	0.05	0.5	T
1879-12-25	40	21	0.32	0.5	M
1976-12-25	36	23	0.06	0.4	0
1966-12-25	32	23	0.05	0.4	7
1924-12-25	36	15	0.04	0.4	T
1962-12-25	35	24	0.10	0.3	T
1974-12-25	40	34	0.19	0.1	0
1926-12-25	43	34	0.09	0.1	T
1919-12-25	27	16	0.01	0.1	2
1892-12-25	24	18	0.01	0.1	M

[donsutherland1]

An exceptionally mild December rolls on. Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy and mild. Temperatures will likely reach 50° in much of the region. Even milder weather is likely through the middle of the week.

Generally warmer than normal conditions will likely prevail through most of the remainder of December.

A transition to a colder pattern lies ahead. Somewhat colder air should begin moving into the region to close December. The first week of January will likely feature somewhat below normal temperatures. However, severe cold appears unlikely. Initially, the arrival of a colder regime could coincide with a drier one.

There remains some uncertainty concerning the magnitude and duration of the colder period that could develop. At this time, it appears more likely than not that it will be seasonably cold or somewhat colder than normal with a duration of 1-2 weeks.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.0°C for the week centered around December 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. El Niño conditions may strengthen somewhat further this month.  

The SOI was -27.25 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.732 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January. The latest GEFS shows a return to Atlantic blocking.

On December 22 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.894 (RMM). The December 21-adjusted amplitude was 0.722 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 43.8° (4.7° above normal). That would tie December 2023 with December 2021 as the 3rd warmest December on record. With 2023 virtually certain to be among the 10 warmest Decembers on record, 60% of New York City's 10 warmest Decembers have occurred since 2000, including 40% since 2010, and all have occurred since 1980. Records go back to 1869.

 

[suzook]

Not gonna use the torch phrase, but December has been hot as fuck this year.

[weatherpruf]

6 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

Somebody posted a pic of a snowy train coming out of Grand Central in the early 90s. and a lot of the comments in the general public were oh that’s when it used to snow in New York.

 

People are starting to notice now. It takes a while for the general public to notice, but people are really starting to.

 

I’ll go with my old adage… December is snowless the winter ahead is gonna be shit. Better hope for a one hit wonder because that’s probably it if we haven’t had snow by December 31

As I've noted in the past, I learned of this dictum from a Rutgers met; this is true for most of NJ anyway. We had the same discussions in the early 90s about the lack of snow, at which time it had not snowed significantly in some 5 years. 92 would feature two smallish storms in March, then a decent Feb 93 event followed by March ( non ) Superstorm in NYC ( 10 icy inches ) before 94 would set a new bar, to be broken two years later in 96. After which we went another 5 years with the snowblower in mothballs.....we can very easily see little snow for half a decade, I've seen it a few times in my life.

[Allsnow]

 

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, Allsnow said:

 

Alaska is one the few locations in North America that can do OK on snowfall with an overpowering +EPO pattern.

 

[the_other_guy]

Merry Christmas everyone! 40F in Westchester!

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Alaska is one the few locations in North America that can do OK on snowfall with an overpowering +EPO pattern.

 

Okay? It’s the most snow ever before New years Day 

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Okay? It’s the most snow ever before New years Day 

What about the rest of North America?

https://globalcryospherewatch.org/state_of_cryo/snow/

[SACRUS]

 

38 off a low of 36.  Some breaks in the clouds 

 

 

 

A very Merry Christmas to you all / and Buon Natale 

[Allsnow]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

What about the rest of North America?

https://globalcryospherewatch.org/state_of_cryo/snow/

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records: Merry Christmas

 

EWR: 69 (1964)
NYC: 66 (2015) 1AM high
LGA: 64 (2015)


Lows:

EWR: 0 (1980)
NYC: -1 (1980) stone-cold! christmas
LGA: -1 (1980)

 

Historical: 

 

1776: Thomas Jefferson noted that the first winter snow fell on December 20th, but did not last on the ground one day. Temperatures dropped to 30 degrees or colder on Christmas Day. That night, 22 inches of snow fell. From the 25th of December until March 6, 10 snow covered the ground, and some of them were deep. The first rain came on the 9th of March. In Frederick County, two feet of snow was recorded.

 

1872: Since records began back in 1887, Columbia, South Carolina, only a trace of snow has been reported on Christmas Day. Before records, 13-hour sleet, and snowstorm occurred in Columbia and surrounding areas. Credit goes to Cary Mock, a USC geography professor who specializes in historical weather research. Here is a link to the newspaper article. 

1966 - A white Christmas was enjoyed by residents from North Carolina to New England in the wake of a major snowstorm. Even coastal Virginia was white. (David Ludlum)

1980 - It was the coldest Christmas Day of modern record in the northeastern U.S. Temperatures as cold as 36 degrees below zero were reported in New York State, and as the sharp cold front swept southeastward the temperature at Boston MA plunged from 34 degrees to seven degrees below zero during the day. (David Ludlum)

1983 - It was the coldest Christmas Day of modern record for the central and eastern U.S. More than 125 cities reported record low temperatures for the date, and thirty-four of those cities reported all-time records for the month of December. The temperature plunged to one degree below zero at Huntsville AL, and dipped to 14 degrees at Galveston TX. Snow covered the ground from the Pacific Northwest through much of the Great Plains Region to the Northern Appalachains. (The National Weather Summary)

1987 - Residents of Tucson, AZ, awoke to a white Christmas for the first time in forty-seven years of records, as a winter storm blanketed the area with up to four inches of snow. While heavy rain inundated Arkansas, freezing rain was reported from northwest Texas to southwestern Missouri, with an inch of ice reported at Harrison AR. Unseasonably mild weather prevailed in the southeastern U.S. Seven cities reported record high temperatures for the date. For the second day in a row McAllen TX was the hot spot in the nation with an afternoon high of 91 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A massive winter storm made for a very white Christmas in the western U.S. Las Vegas, NV, reported snow on the ground for the first time of record. Periods of snow over a five day period left several feet of new snow on the ground of ski areas in Colorado, with 68 inches reported at Wolf Creek Pass. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - It was a record cold Christmas Day for parts of the southeastern U.S. Morning lows of zero degrees at Wilmington, NC, and five degrees below zero at Jacksonville NC established all-time records for those two locations. Miami Beach FL equalled a December record established the previous morning with a low of 33 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2002: A major snowstorm moved up the east coast on Christmas Day, 2002. Widespread snowfalls of a foot or more occurred across much of central New York and northeast Pennsylvania, with amounts as high as 30 inches reported over the northwest slopes of the Catskills.

2003 - Heavy rains affected areas of southern California that were just recently ravaged by wildfires in October. The downpour produced flash flooding that resulted in mudslides, taking the lives of 15 people at area campgrounds in San Bernardino (AFP).

2004 - Snow fell on Christmas Day in Deep South Texas. Snow totaled 4.4 inches in Corpus Christi, making it the second White Christmas ever. Farther north, Victoria had their first white Christmas on record when 12.5 inches of snow fell.

2006 - Severe thunderstorms produced four tornadoes in Florida. Columbia, Pasco, Lake and Volusia counties were hardest-hit, including the Daytona Beach area. A tornado generated considerable damage on the campus of Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, delaying the start of the spring semester (Orlando Business Journal).

2010 - Up to 32 inches of snow and blizzard conditions affected parts of the eastern U.S. on December 25th�27th. A state of emergency was declared in North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Maine. In New York City, up to 24.5 inches of snow fell, effectively shutting down rail lines, major airports, and bus services. Thousands of flights were cancelled and stranded subway riders were forced to spend a night in unheated train cars. One person was reported killed in Maine due to the weather conditions. (NCDC)

[SACRUS]

More on the 2002 noreaster rain to mix - snow. A strong coastal.  Believe those were the wright weather board days.

 

http://bgmresearch.eas.cornell.edu/casestudy/2002/Dec2502/dec2502_files/dec252002.htm