December 2023

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

45 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

December is a fall month now 

That’s exactly it. It’s what November was pre 1990. I would even stretch to there were Octobers in the mid 1800s that were comparable to what December is now.  The entire global system is so out of wack that, extremes can and still do happen, so it’s not like we aren’t going to see major snow storms anymore. We just need things to go our way. Which as of right now, they most certainly aren’t. 

[eduggs]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

I personally go off of experience and living through the 80s/90s as well as the 2000s.

I have vivid memories of the late 80s and 90s and the experience was just like the last 5 winters for me. Why do the last 5 winters have to be a new reality when we have seen these setups and frequencies in the past? In my opinion we have a long period of time to wait and collect data until we can know the answer.

Maybe a climatologist can publish and in depth paper on the differences between that 30 year period and the last 5 years. Also, 1955 through 1969 compared to 2000 through 2018. In GUESSING, I would have to think that they would match up relatively well (and so nobody thinks I do not believe it's getting warmer out, baseline temperatures adjusted up for both periods by whatever the number is).

In the meantime there will always be disagreements between the audience members, which is healthy and leads to debates and knowledge growth. 

My stance is per the above based on experience, and I am open to change as time goes by. At the current time, living through both periods, I am not at the point yet where I can agree we have past a point where we have shifted to new pattern regimes.

I like your write up.

I also lived through the 80s and 90s. I remember several frustratingly low snow years. I agree from a snow perspective it's impossible to know for sure how much influence a changing base state has vs. just being in a bad stretch. One thing that does stand out, however, about recent years is the warmth. The 80s had cold periods even when it didn't snow. Outside of 2015 it hasn't been cold recently. Ice is forming later (if at all) and melting sooner. Growing seasons are lengthening. Many places are exceeding 99th percentile frequency statistics for warmth parameters. While we can't know for sure how much our average weather has been affected by a changing climate, I'm personally convinced that it is now observable over our lifespans. 

[wdrag]

3 hours ago, eduggs said:

Brutal for ski areas. I'm still holding out hope for the Jan. 1-3 period. It's just far enough out into the fuzzy period of modeling that if we squint we can imagine a snow treat. 

squinting!!  hoping... 

[Volcanic Winter]

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

I like your write up.

I also lived through the 80s and 90s. I remember several frustratingly low snow years. I agree from a snow perspective it's impossible to know for sure how much influence a changing base state has vs. just being in a bad stretch. One thing that does stand out, however, about recent years is the warmth. The 80s had cold periods even when it didn't snow. Outside of 2015 it hasn't been cold recently. Ice is forming later (if at all) and melting sooner. Growing seasons are lengthening. Many places are exceeding 99th percentile frequency statistics for warmth parameters. While we can't know for sure how much our average weather has been affected by a changing climate, I'm personally convinced that it is now observable over our lifespans. 

This is a point I think about myself often when people bring up low snow stretches from earlier periods. 

It’s not just snow totals in a vacuum, though snow for all intents and purposes = the results the majority of us are looking for and ultimately care about. That aside, these earlier periods seem to have offered much in the way of significant cold, something that we’re just not seeing the equivalent of today. 

The cold pushes we do get, like last Xmas, seem to be notably short lived and almost always followed by significant warmups instead of a return to near normal. I would wager that’s a different failure mode than what was seen in earlier “low snow” periods (the presence of preclusive temperatures and loss of marginal events as a result). 

If anything, it seems we’ve introduced a new failure mode (or at least one that was less common) into whatever decadal cycles may have already influenced northeast snow (temperature issues).

Just IMHO / my perspective. 

[MANDA]

Not expecting any snow here for the rest of December.  That being the case I will be behind the curve of last December when 4" of snow fell here.

My expectations on this December were very low but I didn't think it would suck quite this much.  My expectations for January are also guarded to say the least, especially if the opening half of the month craps the bed.

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks for this.

Yeah in reality, December 1997 was decent for a strong El nino background state temps wise (December). Comparing the maps (which I find fun lol), the difference seems to be the trough off the west coast is slightly west of this year.

Also, this year most of the PV is on the other side of the globe, in 1997 it looks as though a piece of the PV is over Alaska, could have cooled that PAC air flow a bit that year with the connection due north.

Finally the Poler vortex looks consolidated in the 1997 map vs this year which looks perturbed.

Do you have the same map for November 1997 as well compared to this November?

Actually a little snow too, I feel that December 2015 may be a closer match from an H5 perspective, would you happen to have the same map for 2015? 

Snow for 1997....

November 1997 Temperature Anomalies:

November 2023 Temperature Anomalies:

December 2015 500 mg Height Anomalies:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Generally warmer than normal conditions will likely prevail through most of the remainder of December.

A transition to a colder pattern will likely commence during the first week of January. Severe cold appears unlikely early in the transition. There remains uncertainty concerning the magnitude and duration of the colder period that could develop. At this time, it appears more likely than not that it will be seasonably cold or somewhat colder than normal with a duration of 1-2 weeks. Initially, the arrival of a colder regime could coincide with a drier one.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.0°C for the week centered around December 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. El Niño conditions may strengthen somewhat further this month.  

The SOI was -36.43 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.055 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January. Therefore, blocking will likely return in January, if historic experience is representative. The latest GEFS shows a return to Atlantic blocking.

On December 21 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.722 (RMM). The December 20-adjusted amplitude was 0.834 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 43.5° (4.4° above normal). That would make December 2023 the 6th warmest December on record.

 

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

November 1997 Temperature Anomalies:

November 2023 Temperature Anomalies:

December 2015 500 mg Height Anomalies:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks again.

What's interesting is the November comparison shows roughly the same thing as December, everything was slightly west in 1997 compared to this year (likely why the central area of the country is the focus of the warmth this year). Perhaps that will lead to a better outcome than 97/98? This year can't be any worse than that year lol. 

2015 looked nothing like this year.

[JerseyWx]

I'm curious how this winter will play out as compared to 15-16.  At this point back then, I still hadn't recorded any snow (like this year), and would only get a half inch until the middle of January.  Then came the big storm, and a cold snap in February with some smaller storms.

Then came 17-18 with that crazy March and 20-21 with the February blitz.  A lot of our better years were backloaded since 2015 and featured a mega storm (March 8, 2018 and Feb. 1, 2021 were both just under 2 feet IMBY).

[lee59]

Didn't get as mild as I expected today, high 43, pretty much normal.

[psv88]

6 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Didn't get as mild as I expected today, high 43, pretty much normal.

Uptons forecast high was 44…

[lee59]

16 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Uptons forecast high was 44…

Ok. I haven't been paying that close attention but I thought the city stations were calling for 50 today, a few days back.

[tdp146]

Random, but just saw a meteor (borderline fireball) fall from the sky to the north. Considering I saw it through cloud-cover, it was pretty cool. 

[snywx]

27 minutes ago, tdp146 said:

Random, but just saw a meteor (borderline fireball) fall from the sky to the north. Considering I saw it through cloud-cover, it was pretty cool. 

Saw it here also.. It was to the north of me as well 

[North and West]

Merry Christmas to everyone who is celebrating!

With no snow around or in sight, I hope everyone has a wonderful next few days and can spend and appreciate the time with loved ones.

Hopefully things improve after the holiday to keep an eye on for New Year’s and beyond.




.

[lee59]

2 hours ago, North and West said:

Merry Christmas to everyone who is celebrating!

With no snow around or in sight, I hope everyone has a wonderful next few days and can spend and appreciate the time with loved ones.

Hopefully things improve after the holiday to keep an eye on for New Year’s and beyond.




.

Thanks same to you and all. Actually well north and west getting some snow and freezing rain tonight. WWA in Sullivan and parts of Ulster.

[SRRTA22]

2 hours ago, tdp146 said:

Random, but just saw a meteor (borderline fireball) fall from the sky to the north. Considering I saw it through cloud-cover, it was pretty cool. 

I've been seeing ALOT of them lately , atleast 3 in the last year. I always thought it was weird how frequent it's been 

[Stormlover74]

A winter weather advisory has been issued for Western Passaic County NJ and Orange County NY, effective until 9AM EST Sunday, December 24th for light sleet and freezing rain. If traveling in these areas, watch out for icy roads and walkways, especially bridges and overpasses. Slow down and allow for extra space between vehicles.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=WSW

[LakePaste25]

The last time that Caribou recorded less than an inch of snow on the ground was December 2010. In the same winter (2010-2011), EWR recorded 68.2” of snow. 
 

 

[Volcanic Winter]

I echo @North and West’s sentiments:

Hope you all have a wonderful holiday with friends and family! 

38 here now, let the warmup commence and make way for bigger, better, and snowier things looking toward the new year! 

Unfortunately I’ve been struggling with some bad circumstantial depression this year, and I just wanted to thank you guys for being such a lovely intellectual distraction. I’ve really grown to love this place that has become such a major part of my daily routine. 

All the best guys! 

[donsutherland1]

Some week ahead maps and numbers. Cooler air moves in near the end of the month. Prospects for snowfall remain low.

[bluewave]

Decembers when northern suburbs like HPN can’t drop below 20 or the upper 10s have become more common in recent years.

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2015	28	0
2	2012	24	0
3	2023	20	8
-	2021	20	1
-	2014	20	1
-	1984	20	0
4	2018	19	1
-	1997	19	8
-	1996	19	8
-	1974	19	0
5	2011	18	0
-	2001	18	0
6	2007	17	0
7	2006	16	0

[Brian5671]

Merry Christmas to those who celebrate.   Turn off the computer for a couple days and enjoy the time with family and friends!

[EastonSN+]

I know strong El Ninos can have epic snowstorms but not really a fan in general.

 

[EastonSN+]

Merry Christmas and Happy holidays!

[Allsnow]

 

[donsutherland1]

37 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

It's already snowing lightly in such areas ad North Platte and Valentine. The latter could see more than a foot of wind-blown snow. A blizzard warning is in effect. Light rain will change to heavy snow in parts of South Dakota where the blizzard is also expected to bring heavy snow.

[SACRUS]

 

42 after a low of 34.  Remaining cloudy with some spotty light drizzle and showers.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR:  71 (2015)
NYC: 72 (2015)
LGA: 72 (2015)

 

 

Lows:

EWR: 3 (1983)
NYC: 3 (1983)
LGA: 4 (1983)

 

Historical:

 

1851: The Library of Congress caught fire. About 35,000 of the Library’s 55,000 volumes were destroyed.

1872 - Extreme cold gripped the Upper Midwest on Christmas Eve. Downtown Chicago reported an all-time record low of 23 degrees below zero, which stood until January 1982, and Minneapolis MN reached 38 below. The afternoon high at Minneapolis was 17 degrees below zero. (David Ludlum)

 

1963: At 0326 CDT on December 24th, 1963, a new all-time low for Memphis occurred with a reading of -13°F. The record still stands today.

 

1968: The crew of Apollo 8 took this photo, later dubbed “Earthrise,” on December 24th, 1968. During a broadcast that night, pilot Jim Lovell said: “The vast loneliness is awe-inspiring, and it makes you realize just what you have back there on Earth.”

1983 - The barometric pressure reached 31.42 inches at Miles City, MT, to establish a record for the U.S. It was the coldest Christmas Eve of modern record. More than 125 cities reported record low temperatures for the date, and all-time record lows for December were reported at seventeen cities, including Chicago with a low of 25 degrees below zero, and Havre MT with a reading of 50 below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1987 - A four day seige of heavy rain began in the south central U.S. Flooding claimed four lives and caused millions of dollars property damage. Western Tennessee was drenched with up to fourteen inches of rain in two days. Total rainfall exceeded twelve inches around Memphis TN, and the heavy rain and subsequent flooding added insult to injury to victims of the West Memphis tornado on the 14th of the month. Little Rock AR experienced their wettest December day of record with 5.01 inches of rain. West Little Rock reported 10.20 inches of rain in 24 hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Early morning thunderstorms developing along a cold front spawned a powerful tornado at Franklin, TN, which killed one person, injured seven others, and caused eight million dollars damage. Another in a series of winter storms in the western U.S. produced 20 inches of snow at Blue Canyon CA in 24 hours. Bishop CA received 14 inches of snow in just six hours, and Redding CA, which averages three inches of snow per year, was blanketed with ten inches. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Fifty-seven cities in the south central and eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Elkins, WV, with a reading of 22 degrees below zero. Key West FL equalled their record for December with a morning low of 44 degrees. The high of just 45 degrees at Miami FL was an all-time record for that location. It smashed their previous record for the date by twenty degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2004: An extremely rare snowstorm impacts southeastern Texas on this day. Corpus Christi International Airport officially measured 4.4 inches from this event. This was their second white Christmas ever recorded in Corpus Christi. The other white Christmas occurred in 1918 when 0.1 inches was reported.

 

[weathermedic]

Showers in the forecast every day for the NY Metro through Friday