December 2023

[eduggs]

37 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

List the ones that were bad. We did this already.

 

You got your Nino reset. Lets hope it plays out like you want. Id like to see AN snow.

The binarily defined parameters el nino and la nina are drastically too simplistic to explain continental-scale weather patterns by themselves. There are literally dozens of confounding variables, some already identified, some not. And in truth, the state of the coupled atmosphere and ocean system at any given moment is unique. It has never been before and never will again be in exactly this state. Efforts to characterize and lump together numerical indices to understand and predict these systems cannot fully capture their uniqueness and variability.

To base a forecast months into the future based on what happened decades ago during an "el nino" is laughably simplistic. 

[eduggs]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

For those who want to see how a vortex off the west Coast can and has (now and in the past) flood Canada with PAC air, run the loop of the latest EPS.

In the image below, see that deep blue, that spin is rapidly pushing warm PAC air into Canada (like a river from SW to NE). A problem with stronger El ninos. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=nhem&pkg=z500a

 

But it also happened last winter. 

[eduggs]

5 hours ago, wdrag said:

Not threading anything for the 27th-29th.  Ensembles offer NYC subforum around 1" of rain, give or take. River rises occur but generally within bank, except those that went to major a few days ago...those would rise back to minor flooding IF that rainfall occurs.  Think it best to wait this out. 

Brutal for ski areas. I'm still holding out hope for the Jan. 1-3 period. It's just far enough out into the fuzzy period of modeling that if we squint we can imagine a snow treat. 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, eduggs said:

But it also happened last winter. 

Last year was due to (b) below, a deep west coast trough. A phenomenal year for California though as the reservoirs and snow pack increases were tremendous!

This year is due to (a) below. Another relatively high percentage warm setup for us.

2000 through 2018 we saw (c) ex. 13/14, 14/15 and (d) 02/03 a lot. We are in (and it makes me cringe) a 1970s through 1990s streak of winters which unfortunately happen a higher percentage of the time. 

The good news is we had good winters sprinkled in like 77/78, 93/94 and 95/96 in that 30 year period. In the last 5 years we had 21/22 as a really good winter sprinkled in. 

 

 

[WX-PA]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Last year was due to (b) below, a deep west coast trough. A phenomenal year for California though as the reservoirs and snow pack increases were tremendous!

This year is due to (a) below. Another relatively high percentage warm setup for us.

2000 through 2018 we saw (c) ex. 13/14, 14/15 and (d) 02/03 a lot. We are in (and it makes me cringe) a 1970s through 1990s streak of winters which unfortunately happen a higher percentage of the time. 

The good news is we had good winters sprinkled in like 77/78, 93/94 and 95/96 in that 30 year period. In the last 5 years we had 21/22 as a really good winter sprinkled in. 

 

 

Great post!

[eduggs]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Last year was due to (b) below, a deep west coast trough. A phenomenal year for California though as the reservoirs and snow pack increases were tremendous!

This year is due to (a) below. Another relatively high percentage warm setup for us.

2000 through 2018 we saw (c) ex. 13/14, 14/15 and (d) 02/03 a lot. We are in (and it makes me cringe) a 1970s through 1990s streak of winters which unfortunately happen a higher percentage of the time. 

The good news is we had good winters sprinkled in like 77/78, 93/94 and 95/96 in that 30 year period. In the last 5 years we had 21/22 as a really good winter sprinkled in. 

 

 

 

Those bins are a little too general IMO. Some periods straddle the boundary and in any given season we go through phases of each state. Regardless, they are not causing our weather, they are reflections of it.

What is likely as our climate continues to warm is that we will increasingly observe atmospheric circulation patterns in "warm phases." We will likely incorrectly attribute these warm phases to other geophysical parameters such as el nino etc. But in reality, what is more likely is that both el nino and other warm state indices are both correlated to a warmer base climate state as opposed to one physically causing the other. This is classic causal fallacy and it is common in amongst hobbyist meteorologists.

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

 

EWR: 67 (1990)
NYC:  66 (1990)
LGA:  66 (1990)


Lows:

 

EWR: 7 (1989)
NYC: -1 (1889)
LGA: 7 (1989)

Historical:

 

1811 - A cold storm hit Long Island sound with a foot of snow, gale force winds, and temperatures near zero. During the storm many ships were wrecked, and in some cases entire crews perished. (David Ludlum)

 

1921: An estimated F3 tornado struck the town of Clarkedale, Arkansas, killing six and injuring 60 others. Four people died in the destruction of the Banks and Danner store, where 50 people were doing their Christmas shopping.

1955 - The barometric pressure dipped to 28.97 inches (981 millibars) at Boise ID, an all-time record for that location. (The Weather Channel)

1982 - A major winter storm struck Colorado producing heavy snow and blizzard conditions. A record two feet of snow was reported at Stapleton Airport in Denver, which was shut down for 33 hours. Up to 44 inches of snow fell in the foothills surrounding Denver. The storm hurt the ski industry as skiers were unable to make it out of Denver to the slopes, and the closed airport became a campground for vacationers. (23rd-25th) (The Weather Channel) (Storm Data)

1983 - The temperature plunged to 50 degrees below zero at Williston ND to equal their all-time record. Minneapolis MN reported an afternoon high of 17 degrees below zero, and that evening strong northerly winds produced wind chill readings of 100 degrees below zero in North Dakota. (The National Weather Summary)

1987 - A winter storm brought heavy snow to the Central Rockies, and also spread a blanket of snow across the Middle Missouri Valley in time for Christmas. Snow and high winds created near blizzard conditions in Wyoming. Snowfall totals in Wyoming ranged up to 25 inches at Casper, with four feet of snow reported at the Hogadon Ski Resort on Capser Mountain. The Wolf Creek Ski Resort in Colorado received 26 inches of snow. Totals in the Middle Missouri Valley ranged up to 16 inches at Alpena SD, with 14 inches at Harrison NE. Strong winds ushered unseasonably cold air into the southwestern U.S. Canyon winds gusting to 100 mph created ground blizzards in Utah. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Low pressure in the Upper Midwest produced strong and gusty winds across the Great Lakes Region and the Ohio Valley. Winds in Ohio gusted to 47 mph at Cincinnati, and reached 51 mph at Cleveland. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - An historic arctic outbreak spread to the Gulf Coast Region, and a total of 122 cities across the central and eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. Forty-one of those cities reported record lows for the month of December, with some cities breaking December records established the previous morning. Morning lows of 11 degrees at New Orleans LA and Lake Charles LA, 4 degrees below zero at San Angelo TX, and 26 degrees below zero at Topeka KS, established all-time records for those four locations. Yankton SD was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of 31 degrees below zero. A storm system moving across the Florida peninsula and along the Southern Atlantic Coast produced high winds and record snows along the Carolina coast. Snowfall totals of 15 inches at Wilmington NC and 13.3 inches at Cape Hatteras NC were all-time records for those two locations.

 

1998: A major ice storm struck central and southeast Virginia and much of North Carolina beginning on Wednesday, December 23, and lasting until Christmas Day morning. Icy conditions caused injuries from slips and falls and numerous vehicle accidents. Ice accumulations of up to an inch brought down trees and power lines. Outages were so widespread with 400,000 customers were without power on Christmas Eve. Some people were without power for up to ten days.

2009 - Severe storms and heavy rainfall were associated with the same storm that brought blizzard conditions to the central parts of the U.S. on December 23rd and 24th. At least one death in Louisiana was blamed on the heavy rainfall and storms. There were 35 preliminary tornado reports and 34 hail and wind reports along the Gulf Coast over the 2-day period. The 10-year average number of tornadoes across the country in December is 36. (NCDC)

[EastonSN+]

17 minutes ago, eduggs said:

 

Those bins are a little too general IMO. Some periods straddle the boundary and in any given season we go through phases of each state. Regardless, they are not causing our weather, they are reflections of it.

What is likely as our climate continues to warm is that we will increasingly observe atmospheric circulation patterns in "warm phases." We will likely incorrectly attribute these warm phases to other geophysical parameters such as el nino etc. But in reality, what is more likely is that both el nino and other warm state indices are both correlated to a warmer base climate state as opposed to one physically causing the other. This is classic causal fallacy and it is common in amongst hobbyist meteorologists.

I personally go off of experience and living through the 80s/90s as well as the 2000s.

I have vivid memories of the late 80s and 90s and the experience was just like the last 5 winters for me. Why do the last 5 winters have to be a new reality when we have seen these setups and frequencies in the past? In my opinion we have a long period of time to wait and collect data until we can know the answer.

Maybe a climatologist can publish and in depth paper on the differences between that 30 year period and the last 5 years. Also, 1955 through 1969 compared to 2000 through 2018. In GUESSING, I would have to think that they would match up relatively well (and so nobody thinks I do not believe it's getting warmer out, baseline temperatures adjusted up for both periods by whatever the number is).

In the meantime there will always be disagreements between the audience members, which is healthy and leads to debates and knowledge growth. 

My stance is per the above based on experience, and I am open to change as time goes by. At the current time, living through both periods, I am not at the point yet where I can agree we have past a point where we have shifted to new pattern regimes.

[psv88]

20 this morning. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Eduardo said:

I agree with this, although as we get into January, it becomes more possible to sneak in an event with a marginal airmass.  Something has to break our way at some point, right?….. Right? 

The bar in December has been set pretty low with a trace of snow and another top 10 warmest December. So anything better than that will be considered a victory I guess. But still not seeing a pattern yet which will produce a warning level 6”+ NYC snow into early January. Smaller events can always sneak into otherwise challenged patterns for snow. 

[WX-PA]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The bar in December has been set pretty low with a trace of snow and another top 10 warmest December. So anything better than that will be considered a victory I guess. But still not seeing a pattern yet which will produce a warning level 6”+ NYC snow into early January. Smaller events can always sneak into otherwise challenged patterns for snow. 

 Early January doesn't to me seemed challenged for snow...Looks like normal to a little bit below temps ..all you need is a SW..I don't know why that wouldn't work for this time of year.

[donsutherland1]

As 1997 was referenced, December 2023 blows away December 1997 in terms of the magnitude and expanse of the warmth. They're not even in the same ballpark so to speak.

1997:

2023:

[Stormlover74]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The bar in December has been set pretty low with a trace of snow and another top 10 warmest December. So anything better than that will be considered a victory I guess. But still not seeing a pattern yet which will produce a warning level 6”+ NYC snow into early January. Smaller events can always sneak into otherwise challenged patterns for snow. 

I don't really remember what the pattern was like in December 1990 except it was a mild month and got cold just before Christmas. The morning of the 27th 1 to 3" was still being forecast for that night and they bumped it up to 3 to 6 that afternoon and of course we ended up with 6 to 8 with a little sleet on top and then the warmup began the next day. It was a very nice event for the Ohio valley

[WX-PA]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I don't really remember what the pattern was like in December 1990 except it was a mild month and got cold just before Christmas. The morning of the 27th 1 to 3" was still being forecast for that night and they bumped it up to 3 to 6 that afternoon and of course we ended up with 6 to 8 with a little sleet on top and then the warmup began the next day. 

Winter of 90-91 was very warm but it had near normal snow.

[NittanyWx]

13 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Yes this far out but you have to be excited ( yes I know it's far out ) how this pattern is evolving . Compare this time last year to this year. Way different.

 

I think we have different definitions of excited

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

Winter of 90-91 was very warm but it had near normal snow.

Yes luck was on our side that winter

[lee59]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It’s the worst since 1980, sea ice is equally as bad. Our source region is going to continue to be a huge problem as is true cold air as @NittanyWx has cautioned over and over 

I guess the source region is looking pretty good for the other side of the globe, where the cold weather seems to be.

[lee59]

Never got below freezing in the city last night, meanwhile many suburbs double digit colder.

[lee59]

Looks like this year will be Central Parks mildest yet.

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Never got below freezing in the city last night, meanwhile many suburbs double digit colder.

It was mostly mid 20s to low 30s due to cloud cover.  LI had more radiational cooling

[bluewave]

40 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

 Early January doesn't to me seemed challenged for snow...Looks like normal to a little bit below temps ..all you need is a SW..I don't know why that wouldn't work for this time of year.

The only temperatures that matter for snow are during the day of the event. Blended long range ensemble means will be too smoothed out for the finer storm details. The general pattern will have issues with a fast split flow. Meaning that amplified systems will track further north and pull in warmer air with them. Like we often see with primary lows running to the lakes and the southern stream riding further north.  So you could have cooler to normal temperatures before and after the storm but warm to above normal leading to rain or quick changeovers during the storm. Plus with very progressive patterns it’s tough for high pressure to lock in over SE Canada. Often times the highs are exiting the east coast as storms approach from the west. Weaker systems could completely get suppressed in split flow patterns.

 

[lee59]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It was mostly mid 20s to low 30s due to cloud cover.  LI had more radiational cooling

Yea I did get down to 23 before cloud cover stopped the drop about 1 A.M.

[EastonSN+]

39 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

As 1997 was referenced, December 2023 blows away December 1997 in terms of the magnitude and expanse of the warmth. They're not even in the same ballpark so to speak.

1997:

2023:

Thanks for this.

Yeah in reality, December 1997 was decent for a strong El nino background state temps wise (December). Comparing the maps (which I find fun lol), the difference seems to be the trough off the west coast is slightly west of this year.

Also, this year most of the PV is on the other side of the globe, in 1997 it looks as though a piece of the PV is over Alaska, could have cooled that PAC air flow a bit that year with the connection due north.

Finally the Poler vortex looks consolidated in the 1997 map vs this year which looks perturbed.

Do you have the same map for November 1997 as well compared to this November?

Actually a little snow too, I feel that December 2015 may be a closer match from an H5 perspective, would you happen to have the same map for 2015? 

Snow for 1997....

[Allsnow]

I remember Dec 1997 being very snowy just to our north? I spent Christmas in Connecticut that year with about 8-10 inches on the ground 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

20 this morning. 

In the 2000s we used to have highs in the teens for December, now getting below freezing in the city at night is an achievement. 

[Allsnow]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

In the 2000s we used to have highs in the teens for December, now getting below freezing in the city at night is an achievement. 

December is a fall month now 

[nycwinter]

i remember christmas day 1980 it got to -1 in nyc...

[bluewave]

24 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I remember Dec 1997 being very snowy just to our north? I spent Christmas in Connecticut that year with about 8-10 inches on the ground 

My main memory of December 97 was the surprise high wind warning right before New Years. Some neighbors threw out unsecured loose paneling by the curb after doing a renovation. It was all over the place the next morning with wind gusts over 60 mph.

[Stormlover74]

19 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

In the 2000s we used to have highs in the teens for December, now getting below freezing in the city at night is an achievement. 

During months like Dec 2000 which were well below average

[EastonSN+]

35 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I remember Dec 1997 being very snowy just to our north? I spent Christmas in Connecticut that year with about 8-10 inches on the ground 

That had to be wayyy north. We had nothing near the coast here.