December 2023

[bluewave]

10 hours ago, eduggs said:

Yeah not a ton of cold air around this fall. But I want to reiterate my point that 2m temp. anomalies are misleading in terms of describing airmasses. The 2m temp maps that you posted yesterday gave a false impression of warm air when in fact the forecasted airmass was seasonably cold and theoretically supportive of wintry precip. for part of our region during that time period.

Cloudy nights usually show up as strongly positive 2m temp. anomalies even with a fairly cold airmass because of the lack of nighttime thermal radiation relative to average. 

I don’t think that’s the case. We all know that those are departure maps and not absolute temperatures. So warmer departures at the start of December means highs in the 50s and lows in NYC in the 40s. Very tough to support a significant snow event at the coast with those temperatures. The NYC average split for the first week of December is 48°/37° the first week will average above that. Plus it’s very difficult to get a significant snow event at the coast with the current fast Pacific flow into the West Coast lowering heights out there and not letting a ridge lock in long enough out West.

 

[Allsnow]

Ensembles look hideous for Mid month…

 

Get ready for the meltdowns

 

[EastonSN+]

12 hours ago, MANDA said:

That kind of cold is incomprehensible these days.  That 76-77 and 77-78 was amazing stuff.  Pattern in 76-77 quickly collapsed in early February 77 from what I remember. I seem to remember walking home from school mid to late February and breaking a sweat.  Good old days for sure.  Not much snow 76-77, only one decent event but snow cover for a very long period of time as nothing melted from December through early February.

 

 

Yeah hard to imagine as that was rare. I think we will see it again, or close to it (1 to 3 degrees warmer) sometime in the future. Will it be 10, 20 or 30 years who knows. 

[EastonSN+]

The MJO looks to reach phase 8 around the 20th, give or take a couple of days. Perfect timing for the holidays!

 

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Ensembles look hideous for Mid month…

 

Get ready for the meltdowns

 

This is what we want, to reach phase 8 around the 20th. Better than the other way around.

Not sure why anyone would melt for warmth (no pun intended) before the 20th.

[EastonSN+]

6 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I agree. Just a few adjustments out west and up north and clippers are capable of tapping bitterly cold air from central and eastern Canada and driving it across the Great Lakes and into the northeast. Right now the ridge is a little too expansive. It needs to retrograde or re-align itself for that to happen.

WX/PT

I never understood why there was fear of clippers becoming "extinct". Yes, we witnessed very few, albeit only over a 10 year period. That timeframe is relatively short. 

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Ensembles look hideous for Mid month…

 

Get ready for the meltdowns

 

This is what we were talking about. The earlier RMM charts had a very weak MJO 4-6 signature while the VP anomaly charts said otherwise. Now the RMMs are showing a more robust MJO 4-7. The GFS often beats the Euro RMMs due to the Euro having issues with the barrier effect and MC convection. My guess is that we could see another stall near 7 which could persist up to the solstice or even Christmas with mild temperatures. 
 

 

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The MJO looks to reach phase 8 around the 20th, give or take a couple of days. Perfect timing for the holidays!

 

Yep that's what many are calling for 

 That would be great 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is what we were talking about. The earlier RMM charts had a very weak MJO 4-6 signature while the VP anomaly charts said otherwise. Now the RMMs are showing a more robust MJO 4-7. The GFS often beats the Euro RMMs due to the Euro having issues with the barrier effect and MC convection. My guess is that we could see another stall near 7 which could persist up to the solstice or even Christmas with mild temperatures. 
 

 

There's ZERO to suggest a stall near 7
7 is cold in December 

[Allsnow]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is what we were talking about. The earlier RMM charts had a very weak MJO 4-6 signature while the VP anomaly charts said otherwise. Now the RMMs are showing a more robust MJO 4-7. The GFS often beats the Euro RMMs due to the Euro having issues with the barrier effect and MC convection. My guess is that we could see another stall near 7 which could persist up to the solstice or even Christmas with mild temperatures. 
 

 

Agreed. The loop into COD was so bogus and fooled many. This will go around the horn and take its time going into the colder phases. Perhaps a colder look as we enter January which fits Nino climo if their isn’t any lingering Nina effects 

[MJO812]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Agreed. The loop into COD was so bogus and fooled many. This will go around the horn and take its time going into the colder phases. Perhaps a colder look as we enter January which fits Nino climo if their isn’t any lingering Nina effects 

Both MJO plots go into 7 by the 14th.
The MJO goes through 4 5 6 in 12 days
It's speeding through 

[Allsnow]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Both MJO plots go into 7 by the 14th.
The MJO goes through 4 5 6 in 12 days
It's speeding through 

It’s not going to speed through

[SnoSki14]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is what we were talking about. The earlier RMM charts had a very weak MJO 4-6 signature while the VP anomaly charts said otherwise. Now the RMMs are showing a more robust MJO 4-7. The GFS often beats the Euro RMMs due to the Euro having issues with the barrier effect and MC convection. My guess is that we could see another stall near 7 which could persist up to the solstice or even Christmas with mild temperatures. 
 

 

Imagine another near 0" snowfall winter. That would be a wake up call for many that something is very wrong climate wise.

[MJO812]

Looking good by the holidays

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It’s not going to speed through

Is that your opinion ? Can you show evidence of it not speeding through? All the models are out of p6 well b4 the 20th not January .

[MJO812]

Bam on board for a change in late December .

 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Is that your opinion ? Can you show evidence of it not speeding through? All the models are out of p6 well b4 the 20th not January .

Because it’s convection and it feeds off warm water…

 

it will slow down 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Imagine another near 0" snowfall winter. That would be a wake up call for many that something is very wrong climate wise.

Canceling already in November ? What's up with some people on here ?

Be lucky we are in an El Nino and a better winter will most likely be upon us with chances as we go into late Decemver and forward.

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Because it’s convection and it feeds off warm water…

 

it will slow down 

Exactly. Every December the models do the same thing and we end up lingering longer than expected in the warmer MJO phases. Currently have record SSTs near the MJO 7 region. 

[Allsnow]

On 11/24/2023 at 8:20 AM, MJO812 said:

Mjo races through the warm phases. Alot to be optimistic about. 

 

On 11/24/2023 at 12:09 PM, MJO812 said:

 That's right because this time we're going past p3 .

 

On 11/25/2023 at 3:49 PM, MJO812 said:

He is smarter than this.

 

On 11/26/2023 at 1:21 PM, MJO812 said:

Mjo going briefly in the warm phases. 

 

On 11/27/2023 at 7:26 AM, EastonSN+ said:

Our first opportunity window looks to start around the 9th.

 

On 11/27/2023 at 7:51 AM, Allsnow said:

I have zero confidence the MJO will move quickly in any phase other than the cold ones. All the warm water is where we don’t want it…

 

On 11/27/2023 at 9:20 AM, Allsnow said:

That why I think the late December window will favor the west. P7 in December favors cold dump into the west.

Those silly RMM plots had it going into cod which isn’t going to happen with that warm water in 4-7 

 

21 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Those RMM plots are not great to use with predicting the mjo. Days ago people were posting them showing it going into COD. Now it’s correcting stronger and going around the horn. This is why I said days ago how I was skeptical of the MJO “racing through the warm phases” 

 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Exactly.

The convection is spread out .The reason it speeds through is because it follows the wave.

It's why no model is higher than a 1amp.

Come back to us when you see a 3sd because then you know that we will be in trouble.  

As of right now it's go time for late December but things can change like we saw in the past.

 

[EastonSN+]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is what we were talking about. The earlier RMM charts had a very weak MJO 4-6 signature while the VP anomaly charts said otherwise. Now the RMMs are showing a more robust MJO 4-7. The GFS often beats the Euro RMMs due to the Euro having issues with the barrier effect and MC convection. My guess is that we could see another stall near 7 which could persist up to the solstice or even Christmas with mild temperatures. 
 

 

Agreed that the plots are correcting slowely, however wouldn't we want this progression since anything before the 20th is generally a bonus? I think back to the solidly above average snowfall winter of 2000/2001, with our first snowfall occuring December 30th. This IMO is a typical above average snowfall progression, not 96/96 or 02/03 where our first snowfall was November. Those years are RARE and only occured twice from 1970 through now.

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Even better that it slowed right? The 9th would have been too soon.

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Exactly. Every December the models do the same thing and we end up lingering longer than expected in the warmer MJO phases. Currently have record SSTs near the MJO 7 region. 

Exactly. The usual suspects fall for this and next thing you know they kick the can to January.

 

Hopefully we can score a storm in late January or February that fits Nino climo 

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Exactly. The usual suspects fall for this and next thing you know they kick the can to January.

 

Hopefully we can score a storm in late January or February that fits Nino climo 

Ok is this your prediction? Late January or February for our first snowstorm? You quote others, so now it's your turn to stick your neck out. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Ok is this your prediction? Late January or February for our first snowstorm? You quote others, so now it's your turn to stick your neck out. 

That's a ridiculous prediction. 

There is also a chance of either wave for next week to produce especially for the interior areas.

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The convection is spread out .The reason it speeds through is because it follows the wave.

It's why no model is higher than a 1amp.

Come back to us when you see a 3sd because then you know that we will be in trouble.  

As of right now it's go time for late December but things can change like we saw in the past.

 

The wave can’t speed through due to the record +30C SSTs in MJO 7. This is why the VP anomaly charts are more robust than than the RMMs. This is the bias of the of the RMM charts. Even if the RMMs show 8 in the longer range, some forcing still in 7 on the VPs won’t allow a true 8 to develop until the convection there can completely weaken. We see this every December. I think the pattern stays warm than through December 20th or 25th. Not sure about the last week of December yet. But we know from experience that it often  takes longer than expected to cool a pattern down after an extended loop through the warmer phases. This is due to the MJO lag effect on the pattern which has been well described.

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The wave can’t speed through due to the record +30C SSTs in MJO 7. This is why the VP anomaly charts are more robust than than the RMMs. This is the bias of the of the RMM charts. Even if the RMMs show 8 in the longer range, some forcing still in 7 on the VPs won’t allow a true 8 to develop until the convection there can completely weaken. We see this every December. I think the pattern stays warm than through December 20th or 25th. Not sure about the last week of December yet. But we know from experience that it often  takes longer than expected to cool a pattern down after an extended loop through the warmer phases. This is dis to the MJO lag effect on the pattern which has been well described.

Perfect

[MJO812]

Just now, bluewave said:

The wave can’t speed through due to the record +30C SSTs in MJO 7. This is why the VP anomaly charts are more robust than than the RMMs. This is the bias of the of the RMM charts. Even if the RMMs show 8 in the longer range, some forcing still in 7 on the VPs won’t allow a true 8 to develop until the convection there can completely weaken. We see this every December. I think the pattern stays warm than through December 20th or 25th. Not sure about the last week of December yet. But we know from experience that it often  takes longer than expected to cool a pattern down after an extended loop through the warmer phases. This is dis to the MJO lag effect on the pattern which has been well described.

The RIMMS have had a sub 1 SD look to it from a week ago. The speed is the same 

There a 4 day trough in the middle where some may snow next week like I stated above. Then it's a low amp pass That said they are in 7 before the 20th , Not January .

[EastonSN+]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Perfect

Right, and he is not agreeing with you on late January or February, he is keeping the door open for late December. So this does not agree with your statement.