December 2023

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

All those gorgeous looks degraded yet again overnight. Not horrible but the ens means backing off somewhat. Hopefully not another head fake/can kick.

Anytime in the last 5 years when there was a trough in the SW we had issues. Either southern stream systems getting suppressed or very amplified systems tracking too far north and west. All our best winter patterns featured a solid ridge in the Western US.

[dmillz25]

Coldest of the season so far here down to 24

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

And probably coldest for a while?

Probably until the first week of January 

[North and West]

Mjo still moving along nicely 
Pattern change is moving up
( I'm going to get weenied again by snowman19)

It’s like Santa on the evening of the 24th. Just accept it as reflexive and tradition.


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[North and West]

21°. My lawn is not growing.


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[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

All those gorgeous looks degraded yet again overnight. Not horrible but the ens means backing off somewhat. Hopefully not another head fake/can kick.

This is a serious post? I don’t see that 

[ILoveWinter]

36 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Mjo still moving along nicely 

Pattern change is moving up

( I'm going to get weenied again by snowman19)

lol, you were weenied for posting your temp! 

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

This is a serious post? I don’t see that 

 

[Allsnow]

 

[Volcanic Winter]

Refreshing indeed. Nothing like waking up in the morning to crisp air that’ll make your nipples cut glass. 

[North and West]

Refreshing indeed. Nothing like waking up in the morning to crisp air that’ll make your nipples cut glass. 

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[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

All those gorgeous looks degraded yet again overnight. Not horrible but the ens means backing off somewhat. Hopefully not another head fake/can kick.

Only the GEPS degraded. 

To me it looks as though the EPS more or less held while the GEFS improved.

My trepidation comes from the fact that this is a strong El Nino and they are never wall to wall winters, therefore "delayed" looks may be more realistic than a moderate El Nino. 

Here is the EPS (middle ground between the great GEFS look and and eh GEPS look). While yes the PNA progresses to negative, the NAO is progressing to negative as well.

Now, I know last December has a lot spooked that the "NEG NAO no longer works", however that was only due to the fact that we had an extreme trough off the west coast and California, if we stop the RNA here and build a Neg. NAO, then we are in business. 

 

[EastonSN+]

13 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

At the risk of experiencing the eye of the Tiger, wasn't last December's failure due to the depth and positioning of the west coast trough? I do not see how we could have realized success with that setup. Are there any examples of a similar setup resulting in a snowstorm for our area?

 

13 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

You’d need a huge vortex pushing down from eastern Canada to make it work. Prior to the Christmas 2002 storm we had that. A really deep SW trough into Baja but look at our area…that was setting it up for a Miller B redeveloper instead of a torching cutter. 

 

Further to my previous post here is a great response from ORH_wxman who is one of the most knowledgeable posters I have seen. 

[lee59]

21 my coldest of the season. Westhampton airport 17 Brookhaven Labs 19.

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

To me it looks as though the EPS more or less held while the GEFS improved.

Now you can say this is a long range forecast and who knows if it will verify or not. But Jan 1-7 has a suppressed southern stream. Then the 8-15th has storms running to the Great Lakes and redeveloping too close  our area in the fast split flow pattern. 
 

Jan 1-7

 

Jan 8-15

 

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Now you can say this is a long range forecast and who knows if it will verify or not. But Jan 1-7 has a suppressed southern stream. Then the 8-15th has storms running to the Great Lakes and redeveloping too close  our area in the fast split flow pattern. 
 

Jan 1-7

 

Jan 8-15

 

Yeah, I saw this and it's definitely a possibility.

Lol I didn't want to re live the 80s/early 90s "cutter/suppressed/cutter" pattern that dominated back then, but we have avoided it for the most part for over 25 years so I can't complain.

Joking aside, I do like the fact that we are still seeing signs of blocking and strong El ninos outside of 97/98 do typically have that 2 to 4 week deep winter periods (albeit usually late January and February).

Also, the suppressed look could benefit our friends in the DC region. 2 years ago the Delmarva/Virginia cashed in so they are always too far north or too far south lol.

[Allsnow]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Now you can say this is a long range forecast and who knows if it will verify or not. But Jan 1-7 has a suppressed southern stream. Then the 8-15th has storms running to the Great Lakes and redeveloping too close  our area in the fast split flow pattern. 
 

Jan 1-7

 

Jan 8-15

 

I don’t disagree, but it will still gives us opportunities to snow. Currently the chance is zero with the pac jet ext 

[EastonSN+]

Here are all three for the audience. All have some RNA level, while the NAO region is the major difference.

 

[NittanyWx]

10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Here are all three for the audience. All have some RNA level, while the NAO region is the major difference.

 

The NAO difference is actually fairly marginal.  Synoptically most have a piece of the PV near or just north of the Davis Strait.    There's no real Atlantic block of note in the traditional sense, just heights building Iceland/E of Greenland which is of little significance to us.

 

[qg_omega]

I dont see anything to get excited about in the long range, transient cold to start the year but pattern favors clippers or cutters unfortunately 

[LibertyBell]

45 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah, I saw this and it's definitely a possibility.

Lol I didn't want to re live the 80s/early 90s "cutter/suppressed/cutter" pattern that dominated back then, but we have avoided it for the most part for over 25 years so I can't complain.

Joking aside, I do like the fact that we are still seeing signs of blocking and strong El ninos outside of 97/98 do typically have that 2 to 4 week deep winter periods (albeit usually late January and February).

Also, the suppressed look could benefit our friends in the DC region. 2 years ago the Delmarva/Virginia cashed in so they are always too far north or too far south lol.

no, that pattern has come back in the last few years.  fyi Delmarva/DC/etc also cashed in quite a few times in the 80s

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Anytime in the last 5 years when there was a trough in the SW we had issues. Either southern stream systems getting suppressed or very amplified systems tracking too far north and west. All our best winter patterns featured a solid ridge in the Western US.

it feels like we've been reliving the 80s the last few years

[suzook]

A nut sack shrinking 19 degrees here in Stony Brook! All this cold wasted...

[LibertyBell]

56 minutes ago, lee59 said:

21 my coldest of the season. Westhampton airport 17 Brookhaven Labs 19.

Was Westhampton the coldest on the island?  Sometimes East Hampton KHTO is colder.

[rclab]

3 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Refreshing indeed. Nothing like waking up in the morning to crisp air that’ll make your nipples cut glass. 

Good morning V W. I’m not sure why but after reading your post, I started humming that old 50 year ago Pattie Page tune, How Much Is That Doggie In The Window. Stay well, warm and uncut. As always ….

[snywx]

impressive cold this morning considering there is 0 snowpack anywhere near here.

Down to 15° here

[EastonSN+]

17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

no, that pattern has come back in the last few years.  fyi Delmarva/DC/etc also cashed in quite a few times in the 80s

Yup, at least we had 20/21 which as a good winter. Outside of that pretty bad. 18/19 was ok in that it was slightly below average snowfall largely saved by March (also an 80s 90s feature).

[forkyfork]

even in the snowy nino turnarounds we didn't get anything until late january

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

even in the snowy nino turnarounds we didn't get anything until late january

It makes one wonder if we could actually get more snow and a colder winter next winter when it's a la nina after an el nino which tend to produce really well.

 

[Volcanic Winter]

30 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good morning V W. I not sure why but after reading your post, I started humming that old 50 year ago Pattie Page tune, How Much Is That Doggie In The Window. Stay well, warm and uncut. As always ….

You’re a legitimately funny guy, rclab. You make me laugh, have a wonderful holiday you and yours!