weatherpruf Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 2 hours ago, rehjr said: Is china currently in a month long cold spell shattering records on not? Yes or no? Is Germany also? There is lots of cold covering the northern hemisphere. Just because NYC isn’t cold doesn’t mean climate change is running wild. I believe the globe has warmed. It always has. It always will. It will also cool. Always have always will. I was alive in the 1970’s when the earth was supposed to be entering an ice age. Depleted ozone layer was going to kill us all in the 1980’s. Al Gore predicted by now we would all be buried under water. Guess what? None of it ever happened just like all the doom and gloom crowd is saying now. Everything will be fine. Enjoy life. Greta Thornberg lol You are not going to last around here if you have no idea what you're talking about but pretend that you do. I'm not a climatologist, but I am educated and I can read, and the experts are clear about what is going on. It's settled science. If you can't accept it you won't find a welcome audience here. Remember, science does not care if you have a grudge with Al Gore or not. There are plenty of published papers on this topic you can read; hell, you can just read the abstracts and that will convince you. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Yeah JB is consistently too cold on his temp calls. He's always an interesting read but the under water volcano thing seems to be a stretch.... It's the years of steroids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: This is a good look to get on the board but it will change…just gives you an idea of the pattern to start January. Split flow with cold high pressures around… lots of moisture That's workable in January for sure when climo helps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 2 hours ago, NittanyWx said: Ok, get what you're saying now. Only reason I'm kinda hammering on this tropical forcing vs model T2m point is because I think it was a situation, and clear a clear one at that, that we can learn from as forecasters and apply to future predictions. Multi-faceted signal that - even in a situation where tropics were underamped - the model was still able to lead you to a place where you'd be happy going warm to very warm week 3/4. Yeah, I like manually correcting the model biases and arriving at a composite that I feel will work given the various factors at play and known model biases. Everyone gets to see the raw model output. So to take it to the next level you need to have a reasonable guess where the model errors and biases are. A bit like what the MOS numbers do for various locations but correcting the actual 500 mb temperature maps. I would love to automate my manual process and develop a monthly subscription based app that corrects all the model output. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: also, notice that the source region has gone from the Pacific to northern Canada, AK, and the Arctic circle. follow the streamlines Could happen but it seems to be threading a needle with diverting warm air farther into the arctic? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 21, 2023 Author Share Posted December 21, 2023 3 minutes ago, Dark Star said: Could happen but it seems to be threading a needle with diverting warm air farther into the arctic? i mean, you want AK and Arctic ridging to displace air, and if there is ridging in those areas, it is going to be above normal hell, if I could have it my way, I would want the North Pole +30 degrees to get all that colder air out and into the US 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 29 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: You are not going to last around here if you have no idea what you're talking about but pretend that you do. I'm not a climatologist, but I am educated and I can read, and the experts are clear about what is going on. It's settled science. If you can't accept it you won't find a welcome audience here. Remember, science does not care if you have a grudge with Al Gore or not. There are plenty of published papers on this topic you can read; hell, you can just read the abstracts and that will convince you. Good afternoon w p. For some the tale is ‘Once upon a time …. they lived happily ever after.’ Without a thought of what’s happening, what it takes and/or how to get, from one point to the other. The photos below were second week of December NYC 40 N L, 2023. . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 The snowbirds will be cold in Florida 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The snowbirds will be cold in Florida Classic nino there warm north cool south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: Classic nino there warm north cool south Miami 15 to 20 degrees below avg is eye opening for this lead time 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 21, 2023 Author Share Posted December 21, 2023 the cold is moving forward and strengthening with time 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the cold is moving forward and strengthening with time EPS has higher hgts in Ak this run which brings the cold in sooner. NYE might be chilly if the trend continues 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 21, 2023 Author Share Posted December 21, 2023 Just now, Allsnow said: EPS has higher hgts in Ak this run which brings the cold in sooner. NYE might be chilly if the trend continues yes, exactly. I like where we are headed. seems to be legit 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 Please move the climate change stuff to the appropriate forum so we can avoid the inevitable bickering/trolling and dragging off topic. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 44 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: yes, exactly. I like where we are headed. seems to be legit Negative PNA is favored for January 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 21, 2023 Author Share Posted December 21, 2023 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: Negative PNA is favored for January a trough undercutting a -EPO is not the same pattern as a traditional -PNA. they're two different patterns. early Jan looks more like active split flow with AN heights in northern Canada... that isn't really a -PNA February 2023 is more of a typical -PNA 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 17 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: a trough undercutting a -EPO is not the same pattern as a traditional -PNA. they're two different patterns. early Jan looks more like active split flow with AN heights in northern Canada... that isn't really a -PNA February 2023 is more of a typical -PNA Ok https://x.com/paulroundy1/status/1737798350517252271?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 21, 2023 Author Share Posted December 21, 2023 4 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Ok https://x.com/paulroundy1/status/1737798350517252271?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg what does this have anything to do with the beginning of the month? that's for late January I agree that we may see -PNA periods mid to late month as the jet retracts, but i wouldn't say that it's favored for the whole month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 Yeah, the rapid SST increase in the Eastern IO could favor the convection moving there in the coming weeks combined with the El Niño would favor an undercutting SW trough. It’s what you get when the MJO 2-4 El Niño composites are blended together. That SST rebound is following the IOD peak. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 Just a note that the GFS Ens has been posting higher skill scores in the 6-10 at 2m and suspect the EC Ens surface reflections will end up a couple degrees too cold. Sadly even the GFS Op has had less of a cold bias past 3 weeks. That said, do believe the base state is changing from December. Not a great source region still, but not as dire as late Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 Yeah, the rapid SST increase in the Eastern IO could favor the convection moving there in the coming weeks combined with the El Niño would favor an undercutting SW trough. It’s what you get when the MJO 2-4 El Niño composites are blended together. That SST rebound is following the IOD peak. The +IOD is falling apart very rapidly now. As you said the waters in the eastern IO and around Indonesia are warming very quickly, which is going to promote more convection (MJO) there….convection always fires over the warmest SSTs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 Okhttps://x.com/paulroundy1/status/1737798350517252271?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-TxgIt’s not the “classic” Niña RNA/SE ridge pattern we saw last year, that said, the tropical forcing definitely supports -PNA mid-late month. Also, our source region cold/record low snowcover/sea ice will continue to be an issue, no, not as bad as December due to the longwave change in early January, but still no true arctic cold in Canada. It will take a lot of sustained cross-polar flow and snow buildup to fix that. The models are overdoing the early January “cold” IMO and will get warmer as we get closer. While I think it cools off in early January, it’s a cool off from the very warm departures to near normal not “cold” 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 19 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It’s not the “classic” Niña RNA/SE ridge pattern we saw last year, that said, the tropical forcing definitely supports -PNA mid-late month. Also, our source region cold/record low snowcover/sea ice will continue to be an issue, no, not as bad as December due to the longwave change in early January, but still no true arctic cold in Canada. It will take a lot of sustained cross-polar flow and snow buildup to fix that. The models are overdoing the early January “cold” IMO and will get warmer as we get closer. While I think it cools off in early January, it’s a cool off from the very warm departures to near normal not “cold” "Near normal" in early January is cold! You keep talking about those who are saying arctic cold is coming are going to be disappointed when as far as I have read for the past 83 pages, nobody has even mentioned arctic cold or sustained below average temperatures. Many are saying the pattern is improving. And I don't get the point you are trying to make. People mention we could have a few shots at cool temps with snow chances and you then post about no arctic cold. You cannot honestly look at the incoming pattern and tell me that it is as hostile to snowfall as the current pattern we have been in for a little over a week now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 If you are incapable of speaking with respect when disagreeing with people who havent personally attacked you, you wont have much choice in the matter going forward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 Could be the coldest night of the season yet. My forecast low is 23, I think my lowest so far has been 24. Already down to 32 so it could go down pretty far. I know it’s not saying a lot but I guess we should appreciate anything nearing cold this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 IIRC it was very cold in Florida at start of Jan 2010 also, 3-4 weeks before the series of snowstorms in the northeastern states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 One of the worst statements in the public lexicon to come out of the early part of the 2010s is the phrase, “the science is settled”; and followed as of late the phrase “the science has evolved”. Absolute tripe. Why not state “here’s my theory, and here’s my defense of that theory”. This applies regardless, if the theory of AGW is accurate or not. Sorry, I couldn’t resist the professor’s commentary. And I know this is banter, but it needs to be said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 4 hours ago, Allsnow said: The snowbirds will be cold in Florida Rolling blackouts in Tampa! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 4 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: yes, exactly. I like where we are headed. seems to be legit Need a few more days of this though. We've seen things get pushed back far too often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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