December 2023

[NittanyWx]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The greater underlying issue is our rapidly warming climate. This has produced the record warming in the Western Pacific which in turn leads to slower and more amplified MJO 4-7 phases. So there were several underlying issues compounding the warmth potential in addition to the oversimplified El Niño means warm December explanations. The reason the source regions were working against us for cold is the combination of all the factors I mentioned above.

+10 monthly departures over parts of North America have become more common and just can’t be reduced to saying it’s expected during an El Niño. DFW went +13.2 in the December 2021 La Niña when there was an interaction with the very amplified MJO 6-7 even by RMM chart standards which worked in that case. 

Honest question...did you read what I wrote?   I laid out a multifactor reason for why this is warm.  I've repeated it about 5 times over the course of the month and never once mentioned 'oversimplified El Nino', so not sure why I'm being quoted with that lexicon.  Yes, background warming plays an issue too, but how much of that +10 you want to ascribe to that is anyone's guess.  +1F?  +2.5F?  I honestly don't know.

 

What I have said, and will continue to say, is that the EC weeklies gave you a very, very warm signal for end Dec, have been consistent with it since the first week of the month, and a lot of folks dismissed it for reasons relating to 'well MJO 8 is a colder phase and that'll solve it'.  The Hovvies show you that VP200 progression alone is not enough to solve a problem.

 

Even if you believe that the weeklies were underdamped (welcome to ensemble forecasting), you still had a massive, massive warm signal staring you in the face with a high degree of conviction.  So even if it really did miss on amplifying p7, it STILL verified very close to final outcome.  What does that tell you?  It tells you that there were a confluence of factors...about 5 of them...as I'm now saying the 4th time...that led you this way.

 

Tldr; the data was there to go very warm.  People thought they could outperform the model at T2m and got smoked on it.  We can call it what it is.

[rehjr]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The greater underlying issue is our rapidly warming climate. This has produced the record warming in the Western Pacific which in turn leads to slower and more amplified MJO 4-7 phases. So there were several underlying issues compounding the warmth potential in addition to the oversimplified El Niño means warm December explanations. The reason the source regions were working against us for cold is the combination of all the factors I mentioned above.

+10 monthly departures over parts of North America have become more common and just can’t be reduced to saying it’s expected during an El Niño. DFW went +13.2 in the December 2021 La Niña when there was an interaction with the very amplified MJO 6-7 even by RMM chart standards which worked in that case. 

Rapidly warming climate? I guess we ignore Beijing China just shattered their all time record low for December by 5 degrees?? Germany was buried in snow and cold early this month. Planes were frozen on the runway due to the cold and snow.  There was lots of cold this month. Just not on our side of the globe. It has happened before it will happen again. And when the cold comes to our side and china gets +10 departures and Germany is 70 degrees you will point that out. But when it’s cold over there the CC crew is silent 

More records tumble as China cold snap persists

Beijing (AFP) – More low temperature records tumbled across China on Thursday, as the country endures a persistent cold snap.

 

 

[NittanyWx]

6 minutes ago, rehjr said:

Rapidly warming climate? I guess we ignore Beijing China just shattered their all time record low for December by 5 degrees?? Germany was buried in snow and cold early this month. Planes were frozen on the runway due to the cold and snow.  There was lots of cold this month. Just not on our side of the globe. It has happened before it will happen again. And when the cold comes to our side and china gets +10 departures and Germany is 70 degrees you will point that out. But when it’s cold over there the CC crew is silent 

 

Someone's been following Joe Bastardi on twitter.  You gonna blame underwater volcanoes next?

 

[North and West]

1 minute ago, rehjr said:

Rapidly warming climate? I guess we ignore Beijing China just shattered their all time record low for December by 5 degrees?? Germany was buried in snow and cold early this month. Planes were frozen on the runway due to the cold and snow.  There was lots of cold this month. Just not on our side of the globe. It has happened before it will happen again. And when the cold comes to our side and china gets +10 departures and Germany is 70 degrees you will point that out. But when it’s cold over there the CC crew is silent 

I disagree with you on this. I'm not a world-is-ending-environmentalism-is-my-new-religion type of loudmouth, but it's all about probability. Yes, cold is, can, and will continue to occur (as shown from the examples you provided), but statistically it is showing that it's happening less frequently as compared to warm departures.

As humans, we always seem to instinctually need a power greater than ourselves to devote our minds to, so some people do that with CC or anti-CC. 

Same church, different pew as the every other religious fervor throughout time. Pun intended. 

[rehjr]

7 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

 

Someone's been following Joe Bastardi on twitter.  You gonna blame underwater volcanoes next?

Is china currently in a month long cold spell shattering records on not? Yes or no? Is Germany also? There is lots of cold covering the northern hemisphere. Just because NYC isn’t cold doesn’t mean climate change is running wild. I believe the globe has warmed. It always has. It always will. It will also cool. Always have always will. I was alive in the 1970’s when the earth was supposed to be entering an ice age. Depleted ozone layer was going to kill us all in the 1980’s. Al Gore predicted by now we would all be buried under water. Guess what? None of it ever happened just like all the doom and gloom crowd is saying now. Everything will be fine. Enjoy life. Greta Thornberg lol 

[Stormlover74]

9 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

 

Someone's been following Joe Bastardi on twitter.  You gonna blame underwater volcanoes next?

 

Pretty sure that is Joe 

[NittanyWx]

5 minutes ago, rehjr said:

Is china currently in a month long cold spell shattering records on not? Yes or no? Is Germany also? There is lots of cold covering the northern hemisphere. Just because NYC isn’t cold doesn’t mean climate change is running wild. I believe the globe has warmed. It always has. It always will. It will also cool. Aleah’s have always will. I was alive in the 1970’s when the earth was supposed to be entering an ice age. Depleted ozone layer was going to kill us all in the 1980’s. Al Gore predicted by now we would all be buried under water. Guess what? None of it never happened just like all the doom and gloom crowd is saying now. 

Believe it or not, I'm capable of being able to see the globe.  Because I forecast for...the globe.  I forecast for 4 continents. 

 

Germany is not in a monthlong cold spell shattering records.    Berlin is +10 anomaly today lol.

 

Did you know Brazil is locked in it's hottest and also many areas driest Novy-Dec on record?  I can cherrypick data too.  The good news is we have a tool to determine how EVERYTHING is performing at a given time.

 

Joe's a book salesman now.  All his energy clients left him because he kept forecasting too cold.  He went from widely followed in 2010 to little more than noise.

 

[Brian5671]

Yeah JB is consistently too cold on his temp calls.   He's always an interesting read but the under water volcano thing seems to be a stretch....

[NittanyWx]

10 minutes ago, rehjr said:

Good to see the truth comes out. Follow the money people. It always leads to the truth 

Bro is a comedy act.

 

In commodities (where I work) we have people taking positions on buying/selling nat gas on the basis of the weather forecast, production and implied demand.  Those people who sold this market with the view of the weather being bearish this month are pretty happy.  Those who bought it are pretty unhappy.

 

Trading is capitalism.  Weather trading is capitalism.  The beautiful thing about these markets is they tell you who's right and who's wrong.  And you, my friend, would be broke if you tried to trade off your politics.

 

Weather knows no politics, it just is. And this year, it just is the warmest we've had in our climatic record on a global basis (aka 1850).  And that includes cold China in case you're wondering.

 

Anyway, back to dissecting late Dec forecast busts.

 

[bluewave]

19 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

Honest question...did you read what I wrote?   I laid out a multifactor reason for why this is warm.  I've repeated it about 5 times over the course of the month and never once mentioned 'oversimplified El Nino', so not sure why I'm being quoted with that lexicon.  Yes, background warming plays an issue too, but how much of that +10 you want to ascribe to that is anyone's guess.  +1F?  +2.5F?  I honestly don't know.

 

What I have said, and will continue to say, is that the EC weeklies gave you a very, very warm signal for end Dec, have been consistent with it since the first week of the month, and a lot of folks dismissed it for reasons relating to 'well MJO 8 is a colder phase and that'll solve it'.  The Hovvies show you that VP200 progression alone is not enough to solve a problem.

 

Even if you believe that the weeklies were underdamped (welcome to ensemble forecasting), you still had a massive, massive warm signal staring you in the face with a high degree of conviction.  So even if it really did miss on amplifying p7, it STILL verified very close to final outcome.  What does that tell you?  It tells you that there were a confluence of factors...about 5 of them...as I'm now saying the 4th time...that led you this way.

 

Tldr; the data was there to go very warm.  People thought they could outperform the model at T2m and got smoked on it.  We can call it what it is.

I was pointing out in late November ahead of what the Euro was showing that the risks to the late December forecast would be to the warmer side based on its MJO inherent biases which turned out to be correct. The reason for the geographic location of the  +10 this month is a blend of warming climate combined with the MJO and El Niño. When the NYC metro went +10 last January it was the interaction of the MJO, La Niña and warming climate. So the ENSO and MJO combos can be guideposts as to where the forecaster puts the +10s on a monthly forecast. 

[NittanyWx]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I was pointing out in late November ahead of what the Euro was showing that the risks to the late December forecast would be to the warmer side based on its MJO inherent biases which turned out to be correct. The reason for the geographic location of the  +10 this month is a blend of warming climate combined with the MJO and El Niño. When the NYC metro went +10 last January it was the interaction of the MJO, La Niña and warming climate. So the ENSO and MJO combos can be guideposts as to where the forecaster puts the +10s on a monthly forecast. 

 

You're ascribing PV displacement to what?  Just the tropics?  Because I vehemently disagree with that idea if you are.

 

You've got 3 of the factors covered, but saying 'MJO inherent biases' is still a misread on the situation.  Because the 'MJO inherent biases' were part of that weekly EC ens first week of Dec...and the model still went torch...and we still ended up in a torch nationally.

[JustinRP37]

Good lord another person that couldn't pass a physics class because they don't believe in the laws of thermodynamics for fossil fuels. I'll never understand how some believe that humans burning fuel all over the globe have zero effects on the planet. Energy can neither be create nor destroyed*. 

 

*Except in the case of fossil fuels where once you burn it the energy released goes to an imaginary place where it can do nor harm. 

Edit: This is sarcasm....

[NittanyWx]

15 minutes ago, rehjr said:

See how it works? You can accuse me of following Joe but this world class scientist is who your side follows. Tit for tat 

You do follow Joe.  I know because he tweeted almost verbatim what you wrote.

 

I do not follow Greta Thunberg because she isn't a forecaster or really relevant at all to what I do.

[BxEngine]

Take the bullshit somewhere else. Stick to the weather.

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

 

You're ascribing PV displacement to what?  Just the tropics?  Because I vehemently disagree with that idea if you are.

 

You've got 3 of the factors covered, but saying 'MJO inherent biases' is still a misread on the situation.  Because the 'MJO inherent biases' were part of that weekly EC ens first week of Dec...and the model still went torch...and we still ended up in a torch nationally.

I was talking about the inherent EPS barrier effect bias involving convection near the Maritime Continent.  So when I saw the late November VP anomalies forecast I knew the signal through 4-7 would be stronger than it was forecasting. But by the start of December I could see where it was leading and I placed NYC in the +2.5 to +5.0 departure range for the month of December based on the P7 composite match plus other custom local climo trends. My best guess for +10 was near International Falls.

 

[cleetussnow]

13 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Take the bullshit somewhere else. Stick to the weather.

You heard the man!  To the New England Forum!!!!

[NittanyWx]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I was talking about the inherent EPS barrier effect bias involving convection near the Maritime Continent.  So when I saw the late November VP anomalies forecast I knew the signal through 4-7 would be stronger than it was forecasting. But by the start of December I could see where it was leading and I placed NYC in the +2.5 to +5.0 departure range for the month of December based on the P7 composite match plus other custom local climo trends. My best guess for +10 was near International Falls.

 

Ok, get what you're saying now.

 

Only reason I'm kinda hammering on this tropical forcing vs model T2m point is because I think it was a situation, and clear a clear one at that, that we can learn from as forecasters and apply to future predictions.

 

Multi-faceted signal that - even in a situation where tropics were underamped - the model was still able to lead you to a place where you'd be happy going warm to very warm week 3/4.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, rehjr said:

Is china currently in a month long cold spell shattering records on not? Yes or no? Is Germany also? There is lots of cold covering the northern hemisphere. Just because NYC isn’t cold doesn’t mean climate change is running wild. I believe the globe has warmed. It always has. It always will. It will also cool. Always have always will. I was alive in the 1970’s when the earth was supposed to be entering an ice age. Depleted ozone layer was going to kill us all in the 1980’s. Al Gore predicted by now we would all be buried under water. Guess what? None of it ever happened just like all the doom and gloom crowd is saying now. Everything will be fine. Enjoy life. Greta Thornberg lol 

The globe is having one if its warmest Decembers on record. That small postage sized stamp of cold in Eurasia is rapidly reversing. North America is having one of its warmest Decembers on record with some of the lowest snow cover.

NYC Metro has experienced 20 to 30 top 10 warmest months since 2015 to only 1 single top 10 coldest one. The Northeast happens to be one of the fastest warming regions of the planet along with the NW Atlantic.

You are mixing apples and oranges when you mention politicians and activists. First, that is a completely separate field which involves policy. My focus is on the actual patterns and how to adapt to them on an individual basis. I don’t support any climate initiatives or proponents that promote schemes which will raise taxes or energy bills. Prices are already through the roof in this economy so higher energy bills or carbon taxes will just turn more people off from discussing the warming planet. 

[MJO812]

Loving the models not pushing back the pattern change . Maybe by NYE?

[North and West]

The globe is having one if its warmest Decembers on record. That small postage sized stamp of cold in Eurasia is rapidly reversing. North America is having one of its warmest Decembers on record with some of the lowest snow cover.
NYC Metro has experienced 20 to 30 top 10 warmest months since 2015 to only 1 single top 10 coldest one. The Northeast happens to be one of the fastest warming regions of the planet along with the NW Atlantic.
You are mixing apples and oranges when you mention politicians and activists. First, that is a completely separate field which involves policy. My focus is on the actual patterns and how to adapt to them on an individual basis. I don’t support any climate initiatives or proponents that promote schemes which will raise taxes or energy bills. Prices are already through the roof in this economy so higher energy bills or carbon taxes will just turn more people off from discussing the warming planet. 

Well said. Just like in a personal relationship, if you stoke negativity around every corner, the other person will come to resent you and tune you out.


.

[North and West]

Loving the models not pushing back the pattern change . Maybe by NYE?

What kind of change? Does my snowblower remain in the shed?


.

[EastonSN+]

4 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Acceptable WB 6Z GEFS run....

From the MA forum for a positive thought.

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, North and West said:

What kind of change? Does my snowblower remain in the shed?


.

Yes for now

[Stormlover74]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Loving the models not pushing back the pattern change . Maybe by NYE?

Gfs is coldish about 8 days out. Nothing frigid but cold enough at least 

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs is coldish about 8 days out. Nothing frigid but cold enough at least 

This is a good look to get on the board but it will change…just gives you an idea of the pattern to start January. Split flow with cold high pressures around… lots of moisture 

[brooklynwx99]

51 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

This is a good look to get on the board but it will change…just gives you an idea of the pattern to start January. Split flow with cold high pressures around… lots of moisture 

here's our first real crack at something IMO. vort sneaks under the EPO ridge with troughing in SE Canada. split flow FTW

[brooklynwx99]

also, notice that the source region has gone from the Pacific to northern Canada, AK, and the Arctic circle. follow the streamlines

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, rehjr said:

Rapidly warming climate? I guess we ignore Beijing China just shattered their all time record low for December by 5 degrees?? Germany was buried in snow and cold early this month. Planes were frozen on the runway due to the cold and snow.  There was lots of cold this month. Just not on our side of the globe. It has happened before it will happen again. And when the cold comes to our side and china gets +10 departures and Germany is 70 degrees you will point that out. But when it’s cold over there the CC crew is silent 

More records tumble as China cold snap persists

Beijing (AFP) – More low temperature records tumbled across China on Thursday, as the country endures a persistent cold snap.

 

 

Is there a point to this? Someone had a record low so that negates volumes of settled science? If I am misinterpreting, my apologies......

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

also, notice that the source region has gone from the Pacific to northern Canada, AK, and the Arctic circle. follow the streamlines

It’s workable. Hope it persists and we don’t can kick. 

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, jm1220 said:

It’s workable. Hope it persists and we don’t can kick. 

the pattern change has been consistently moving forward in time. i don't see that happening here