December 2023

[Roger Smith]

Was looking on GFS Asia and cold regime in China is supposed to last about ten days, trough begins to shift east into western Pac around NYD. That monster high in middle of Atlantic is supposed to weaken at same time. If we can get part of it sucked north into Greenland, and that links across Canadian arctic to Alaska high, some chance of a better pattern but I expect slow development and best results in Feb-early march. 

Rain and 37F here at what is supposed to be a ski resort, they cannot open yet, base is slushy 4-6" and so I looked back at climate records, winter 1997-98 nothing but constant mixed rain and snow events around here, probably never got good snow conditions despite heavy Jan-Feb totals. About 3-4F above normal all winter.

I am hoping we don't see a repeat of 1997-98 all over, for one thing, it produced a terribly destructive ice storm in eastern Canada, imagine that spread into parts of upstate NY, VT to maine, but was worst around Ottawa and montreal. Dates like Jan 6-10, can't recall as I had moved west in 1995. 

[wdrag]

Minor spotty amounts snow/sleet/freezing rain (hazard) potential for the I84 higher terrain this Saturday night. EC/NAM/RGEM and even globals GFS/GGEM have it with rain edge down to NYC. Might even slip further south with the sewd moving short wave.

27th-29th... for sure one wet event 27th,  but sort of complicated since GEFS and GEPS drag their feet with the primary 5H trough and show 24 hour qpf here on the 29th.  the qpf could end up spread out more than the idea of one event only on the 27th.  Keeping options open on ptype I84. 

[WarrenCtyWx]

What's interesting about 97-98 was that February was the warmest month and December was the coldest month (even though the entire winter was essentially a torch). Not what you would expect in a Nino.

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

What's interesting about 97-98 was that February was the warmest month and December was the coldest month (even though the entire winter was essentially a torch). Not what you would expect in a Nino.

Yeah I remember driving west and hitting  snow in PA and OH in early December that year

[jm1220]

15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah I remember driving west and hitting  snow in PA and OH in early December that year

In the PA mountains 97-98 actually wasn’t a terrible season. There was a pretty sizable snowstorm near New Years and another in late Feb. If it could’ve been 4-5 degrees colder during those storms NYC would’ve had a nice winter. It’s just that we were annihilated in Pacific air that winter. 

[donsutherland1]

Colder air currently covers the region. Another shot of cold air will arrive to end the week. However, the cold will be far from severe.

No Arctic air appears likely through the remainder of December. A transition to a colder pattern could commence during the first week of January. Severe cold appears unlikely early in the transition. There is uncertainty concerning the timing and duration of the colder period that could develop.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.0°C for the week centered around December 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. El Niño conditions may strengthen somewhat further this month.  

The SOI was -2.28 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.043 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January. Therefore, blocking will likely return in January, if historic experience is representative.

On December 18 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.988 (RMM). The December 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.014 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 43.0° (3.9° above normal).

 

[White Gorilla]

3 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

And you can't blame me this winter, I didn't buy a snow blower or new skis this year!!! I did both last year, so you can blame me for that. So who bought the snow blower and skis this year? 

I was going to buy a snow blower last year, glad I didn't.  I am afraid I might never need one again given the current trends.  

[rehjr]

The IO MJO forcing is going to be competing with the forcing from the Nino standing wave. Eric uses Paul Roundy’s plots to show the atmospheric response leading to the RNA, as he said, this is not a “classic” La Niña RNA with a monster SE ridge. I also think the PAC jet is being badly undermodeled by the long range models as we have seen time and again, the very strong El Niño is only lending more credibility to this. The lack of snowcover/ice is another huge issue for cold. My guess is that January ends up warmer than normal with below average snow. I know you disagree and we are in 2 different camps here. I’m standing by this and we will see how this all works out in a month. If I’m wrong, so be it
 

Wait you went above average temps and below normal snowfall? Color me shocked


.

[suzook]

16 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

I was going to buy a snow blower last year, glad I didn't.  I am afraid I might never need one again given the current trends.  

LMFAO. It's gonna snow again. Everyone needs to calm down.

[White Gorilla]

28 minutes ago, suzook said:

LMFAO. It's gonna snow again. Everyone needs to calm down.

I know...of course it will snow again... Partial kidding on my part, but I am generally concerned that our winters are going to be less exciting if we're entering another warmer phase either naturally or human influenced or both as alluded to by others here. 

[Roger Smith]

Yep, I still recall the "winter a thing of the past" chatter in the early 90s after 1987 to 1991 turned out so warm, not to mention talk in 2012 awkwardly followed by two polar vortex winters. The first time I recall hearing the "ski resorts will cease to exist" narrative was probably in 1991 after a couple of bad seasons. But most in Ontario, Quebec and the n.e. US have held on. I suppose the more marginal ones are either gone or struggling.

What is no doubt true is that probability is shifting, and I suppose eventually it could overwhelm winter, but at this point, maybe the old one in three good winters more like one in four or one in five. 

I always wonder too, will the atmosphere cook up a surprise ending to the warming, and create new and different climate regimes in arctic and subarctic regions that do not see large snowfalls in either this climate or the "background normal" 20th century climate. Cambridge Bay in Canada's western arctic normally has a snow cover of about 10 to 20 inches from December to about mid-may; what if a lot of Pacific moisture started to reach them on a regular basis in winter and topped up that cover (most of it falls in late Oct and Nov), increased it to 30-40 in, and it took all of June to melt (as was probably the case with the smaller snow cover of colder centuries like 18th and 19th for which we have only a few anecdotal exploration reports. The reason for glaciation to start is excess snow over snow melt, in subarctic regions. It is not a colder climate so much as a different moisture balance.

The surprise ending could be, in years where we succeed in stabilizing greenhouse gases, suddenly this new storm track and results kick in, and climate begins to cool. While we don't want a warmer climate, we also don't want to go too far in the other direction. (no political implications because by the time this might occur, we will be long gone). 

[Stormlover74]

56 minutes ago, rehjr said:

Wait you went above average temps and below normal snowfall? Color me shocked


.

Smart forecast

[TriPol]

Wait… is it not going to rain this weekend? It rains every weekend. Since September. It’s not raining this weekend??

[White Gorilla]

6 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Wait… is it not going to rain this weekend? It rains every weekend. Since September. It’s not raining this weekend??

I know, I am shocked.  I won't know what to do! 

[snowman19]

[mannynyc]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

Obviously not great but a 1-3 degree F anomaly doesn't mean it can't or won't snow, though it certainly will be harder. This shouldn't be used as a declaration of winter being over.

[stu]

And you can't blame me this winter, I didn't buy a snow blower or new skis this year!!! I did both last year, so you can blame me for that. So who bought the snow blower and skis this year? 

It’s not like you weren’t warned!


.

[wdrag]

5 hours ago, TriPol said:

Wait… is it not going to rain this weekend? It rains every weekend. Since September. It’s not raining this weekend??

Might rain a little Christmas Eve? 

[wdrag]

I have no plans to thread Dec 27th-29th til it shows more consensus on flooding hazards, if it does. Complicated and I doubt the GGEM miss to our south.  However, how and when the 3/4-2" qpf occurs is less certain for me.  Also tail end transitions to some sort of snow or flurries possible the 29th?, at least for parts of I84.  

In the shorter term: I84 corridor Sat night-Sunday morning the 24th: a "possible" period of mixed rain-wintry precip with potential slippery (untreated) pavements above 1000 feet??

I'd like to fire up the January thread Friday evening sometime... conservative approach on its presentation. 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Yep, I still recall the "winter a thing of the past" chatter in the early 90s after 1987 to 1991 turned out so warm, not to mention talk in 2012 awkwardly followed by two polar vortex winters. The first time I recall hearing the "ski resorts will cease to exist" narrative was probably in 1991 after a couple of bad seasons. But most in Ontario, Quebec and the n.e. US have held on. I suppose the more marginal ones are either gone or struggling.

What is no doubt true is that probability is shifting, and I suppose eventually it could overwhelm winter, but at this point, maybe the old one in three good winters more like one in four or one in five. 

I always wonder too, will the atmosphere cook up a surprise ending to the warming, and create new and different climate regimes in arctic and subarctic regions that do not see large snowfalls in either this climate or the "background normal" 20th century climate. Cambridge Bay in Canada's western arctic normally has a snow cover of about 10 to 20 inches from December to about mid-may; what if a lot of Pacific moisture started to reach them on a regular basis in winter and topped up that cover (most of it falls in late Oct and Nov), increased it to 30-40 in, and it took all of June to melt (as was probably the case with the smaller snow cover of colder centuries like 18th and 19th for which we have only a few anecdotal exploration reports. The reason for glaciation to start is excess snow over snow melt, in subarctic regions. It is not a colder climate so much as a different moisture balance.

The surprise ending could be, in years where we succeed in stabilizing greenhouse gases, suddenly this new storm track and results kick in, and climate begins to cool. While we don't want a warmer climate, we also don't want to go too far in the other direction. (no political implications because by the time this might occur, we will be long gone). 

We should also look at the Alps, they've had very little snow for many years now, I've seen pictures that look like it's bare rock up there now and that also has major implications for their fresh water supply.

 

[the_other_guy]

5 hours ago, mannynyc said:

Obviously not great but a 1-3 degree F anomaly doesn't mean it can't or won't snow, though it certainly will be harder. This shouldn't be used as a declaration of winter being over.

Almost every month is 1-3 AN. Dont know why guys expect 3 months of winter to be different than the other 9 months. Certainly not unusual

[North and West]

Might rain a little Christmas Eve? 

Gets some posters in the spirit!


.

[Allsnow]

 

[bluewave]

Another top ten warmest month across the region as we have had something like 20 to 30 top ten warmest months to only one coldest month since the 15-16 super El Niño.

[qg_omega]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Another top ten warmest month across the region as we have had something like 20 to 30 top ten warmest months to only one coldest month since the 15-16 super El Niño.

Insane warmth this month, November was a more wintry month yet again

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

Insane warmth this month, November was a more wintry month yet again

November has been our only consistent cold month since 2015-2016 Nino 

[the_other_guy]

4 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Insane warmth this month, November was a more wintry month yet again

+3 is insane? Novel

 

I would say precip amounts insane.

 

 

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Insane warmth this month, November was a more wintry month yet again

I know most people off this forum don’t mind the lower heating costs as December has become more like what November used to be. But another December flash flood at the ski resorts so soon after the Christmas 2020 event is very damaging to the ski industry.  Plus people don’t want to be cleaning up flooded basements at any time of year and especially near the holidays.

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I know most people off this forum don’t mind the lower heating costs as December has become more like what November used to be. But another December flash flood at the ski resorts so soon after the Christmas 2020 event is very damaging to the ski industry.  Plus people don’t want to be cleaning up flooded basements at any time of year and especially near the holidays.

The best skiing has always been out west…winter always comes out there with their elevation 

[SnoSki14]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Another top ten warmest month across the region as we have had something like 20 to 30 top ten warmest months to only one coldest month since the 15-16 super El Niño.

And we're the cooler region this month. The warmth out west (Midwest, plains) has been ridiculous