December 2023

[GaWx]

29 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

 The 11/28 EPS actually has ~35 members of 101 (35%) having a major SSW (10 mb 60N zonal mean wind going below 0 m/s) during late Dec or early Jan with 18 members (18%) getting below -10 m/s. I consider that to be more than a low probability, especially with that strong of a signal 3.5-6.5 weeks out. Longterm climo says that there’s only a 20-25% chance of a major SSW from Nov through early Jan. So, the latest EPS showing a 35% chance for just that 3 week period is WAY above the climo chance for just that period.

[Allsnow]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The 11/28 EPS actually has ~35 members of 101 (35%) having a major SSW (10 mb 60N zonal mean wind going below 0 m/s) during late Dec or early Jan with 18 members (18%) getting below -10 m/s. I consider that to be more than a low probability, especially with that strong of a signal 3.5-6.5 weeks out. Longterm climo says that there’s only a 20-25% chance of a major SSW from Nov through early Jan. So, the latest EPS showing a 35% chance for just that 3 week period is WAY above the climo chance for just that period.

Normally warmth dominates before these major SSW happen 

[psv88]

41 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

That is encouraging 

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

That is encouraging 

Hopefully something wintry in the second half of winter 

[vegan_edible]

gfs with the reeeeaaachhh 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, vegan_edible said:

gfs with the reeeeaaachhh 

This been on and off the models. 

I have been tracking this.

[vegan_edible]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This been on and off the models. 

I have been tracking this.

i'll take 2 inches for some holiday spirit

[WestBabylonWeather]

with this being said, I agree with you in that it's going to get warm for a week to 10 days mid-month. then we should see a shift in the pattern Christmas week

Warm decembers turning cold around the holidays seems like it happens more than not


.

[Brian5671]

24 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Warm decembers turning cold around the holidays seems like it happens more than not


.

depends on the year-2020 saw a mid Dec snowstorm only to be in the 60's on xmas eve

[Wxoutlooksblog]

It looks per the Euro that we're going to get into a clipper type pattern for a significant period of time. This means a milder day or two here and there but also repeated incursions of colder air with the risk of some light snow when the the clipper storm systems move across and there is some cold air still in place. Some of these systems may stay south of the NYC Metro but others could drop over the area from the north and west. As long as it lasts, these systems generally do not bring heavy or even moderate precipitation to the are so precip amounts should be near to perhaps a bit below normal. But we'll experience some cold and who knows, maybe we'll get lucky with a dusting to 2" at some point.

WX/PT

[Jersey Andrew]

7 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

It looks per the Euro that we're going to get into a clipper type pattern for a significant period of time. This means a milder day or two here and there but also repeated incursions of colder air with the risk of some light snow when the the clipper storm systems move across and there is some cold air still in place. Some of these systems may stay south of the NYC Metro but others could drop over the area from the north and west. As long as it lasts, these systems generally do not bring heavy or even moderate precipitation to the are so precip amounts should be near to perhaps a bit below normal. But we'll experience some cold and who knows, maybe we'll get lucky with a dusting to 2" at some point.

WX/PT

Do you think the pattern will turn colder/snowier as we get closer to Christmas?

[MJO812]

32 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Do you think the pattern will turn colder/snowier as we get closer to Christmas?

Yes if the MJO cooperates 

[bluewave]

6 hours ago, psv88 said:

I just don’t understand people who love cold without snow. Why? What’s the purpose? You’ll be inside anyway, what’s the difference if it’s 40 or 20? Unless you go ice fishing or have a pond out back for ice skating it makes no sense. 
 

to me nothing worse than bare ground and freezing cold. If no snow, warm it up so people can enjoy the outdoors 

On the few occasions we do get extended cold like 13-14 or 14-15 it has been very snowy. Cold and dry really hasn’t happened here since the 70s and 80s. Walking  to the bus stop in January 1977 was probably the closest I have experienced to what life was like during the little ice age. Luckily the next season was one of our greatest on record for snowstorms and the cold relaxed a bit. One of the worst on record for cold and dry was the -10 December 1989. Things seemed  promising after the snowy Thanksgiving but cold suppression reigned in December. 

[steve392]

I love the cold.  Colder the better and im in shorts year round except if i have to shovel snow or if i have to walk in anything deeper than ankle depth.  If it snows when its frigid is a plus.  But winter should always be cold regardless of precip.

[Allsnow]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

On the few occasions we do get extended cold like 13-14 or 14-15 it has been very snowy. Cold and dry really hasn’t happened here since the 70s and 80s. Walking  to the bus stop in January 1977 was probably the closest I have experienced to what life was like during the little ice age. Luckily the next season was one of our greatest on record for snowstorms and the cold relaxed a bit. One of the worst on record for cold and dry was the -10 December 1989. Things seemed  promising after the snowy Thanksgiving but cold suppression reigned in December. 

The cold dry pattern was annoying at the end of December 2017 

[Rmine1]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

On the few occasions we do get extended cold like 13-14 or 14-15 it has been very snowy. Cold and dry really hasn’t happened here since the 70s and 80s. Walking  to the bus stop in January 1977 was probably the closest I have experienced to what life was like during the little ice age. Luckily the next season was one of our greatest on record for snowstorms and the cold relaxed a bit. One of the worst on record for cold and dry was the -10 December 1989. Things seemed  promising after the snowy Thanksgiving but cold suppression reigned in December. 

Those were the days when the GSB would basically be frozen for most of the winter. Regularly would see clammers drive their cars out, cut a hole in the ice, and dig for clams. My neighbor, who had a love affair with the bottle, would literally walk from the end of Oak Neck Lane in West Islip, to the Kismet Inn. Ah the good old days 

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The cold dry pattern was annoying at the end of December 2017 

I would consider it snowy since it ended with the 950 mb benchmark blizzard. Probably the only time in the last decade that a truly cold pattern emerged during the last week of December. But we still got the warm up around the solstice. 

[jm1220]

32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I would consider it snowy since it ended with the 950 mb benchmark blizzard. Probably the only time in the last decade that a truly cold pattern emerged during the last week of December. But we still got the warm up around the solstice. 

The original bomb cyclone (lol) didn’t make it west of I-95 that far but they made up for it in the Mar 2018 storms especially 3/7 when it was white rain on the south shore mostly and well over a foot in NJ. Everyone eventually cashed in. Hopefully we get the sustained cold because like you said we haven’t gotten out of those without a big snow event in the last 8 winters or so. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Rmine1 said:

Those were the days when the GSB would basically be frozen for most of the winter. Regularly would see clammers drive their cars out, cut a hole in the ice, and dig for clams. My neighbor, who had a love affair with the bottle, would literally walk from the end of Oak Neck Lane in West Islip, to the Kismet Inn. Ah the good old days 

Yeah, 76-77 was the only winter I experienced with little ice age style extended cold. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Number of Days Max Temperature <= 32	Missing Count
1	1976-1977	45	0
2	1917-1918	42	0
3	1880-1881	40	0
4	1903-1904	39	0
-	1884-1885	39	0
5	1935-1936	38	0
6	1919-1920	37	0
-	1904-1905	37	0
-	1892-1893	37	0
7	1977-1978	36	0
8	1887-1888	35	0
9	1878-1879	34	1
-	1872-1873	34	0
10	1933-1934	33	0
-	1874-1875	33	2

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Number of Days Min Temperature <= 20	Missing Count
1	1917-1918	48	0
2	1880-1881	46	0
3	1976-1977	44	0
4	1935-1936	43	0
-	1919-1920	43	0
5	1933-1934	42	0
-	1903-1904	42	0
-	1874-1875	42	2
6	1884-1885	41	0
7	1872-1873	40	0
8	1892-1893	39	0
9	1906-1907	38	0
-	1887-1888	38	0
10	1993-1994	37	0
-	1871-1872	37	1

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, 76-77 was the only winter I experienced with little ice age style extended cold. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Number of Days Max Temperature <= 32	Missing Count
1	1976-1977	45	0
2	1917-1918	42	0
3	1880-1881	40	0
4	1903-1904	39	0
-	1884-1885	39	0
5	1935-1936	38	0
6	1919-1920	37	0
-	1904-1905	37	0
-	1892-1893	37	0
7	1977-1978	36	0
8	1887-1888	35	0
9	1878-1879	34	1
-	1872-1873	34	0
10	1933-1934	33	0
-	1874-1875	33	2

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Number of Days Min Temperature <= 20	Missing Count
1	1917-1918	48	0
2	1880-1881	46	0
3	1976-1977	44	0
4	1935-1936	43	0
-	1919-1920	43	0
5	1933-1934	42	0
-	1903-1904	42	0
-	1874-1875	42	2
6	1884-1885	41	0
7	1872-1873	40	0
8	1892-1893	39	0
9	1906-1907	38	0
-	1887-1888	38	0
10	1993-1994	37	0
-	1871-1872	37	1

That kind of cold is incomprehensible these days.  That 76-77 and 77-78 was amazing stuff.  Pattern in 76-77 quickly collapsed in early February 77 from what I remember. I seem to remember walking home from school mid to late February and breaking a sweat.  Good old days for sure.  Not much snow 76-77, only one decent event but snow cover for a very long period of time as nothing melted from December through early February.

 

 

[qg_omega]

Hello Winter

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, MANDA said:

That kind of cold is incomprehensible these days.  That 76-77 and 77-78 was amazing stuff.  Pattern in 76-77 quickly collapsed in early February 77 from what I remember. I seem to remember walking home from school mid to late February and breaking a sweat.  Good old days for sure.  Not much snow 76-77, only one decent event but snow cover for a very long period of time as nothing melted from December through early February.

 

 

Central Park did manage 5.8" in February 77 but it could have been early and then turned mild 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

That kind of cold is incomprehensible these days.  That 76-77 and 77-78 was amazing stuff.  Pattern in 76-77 quickly collapsed in early February 77 from what I remember. I seem to remember walking home from school mid to late February and breaking a sweat.  Good old days for sure.  Not much snow 76-77, only one decent event but snow cover for a very long period of time as nothing melted from December through early February.

 

 

The first hint something unusual was going on was when NYC tied the all-time lowest August temperature at the end of the month of 50°. Several NW suburbs actually dropped into the upper 30s on August 31st. This was followed up by 2nd lowest October temperature of 29° in NYC. The locally colder spots were able to dip below 20. The historic cold continued with widespread single digits on December 3rd.This was the 2nd earliest single digits on record in NYC. So nothing like the climate of the early 2020s.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1986	50	0
-	1982	50	0
-	1976	50	0
-	1965	50	0
-	1885	50	0

 

Monthly Data for August 1976 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Lowest Min Temperature
NY	WALDEN 1 ESE	COOP	37
CT	DANBURY	COOP	38
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	38
NY	CARMEL	COOP	39
CT	WESTBROOK	COOP	39
CT	MOUNT CARMEL	COOP	39
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	39

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1936	28	0
2	1976	29	0
-	1925	29	0
-	1887	29	0
-	1879	29	0

 

Monthly Data for October 1976 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Lowest Min Temperature
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	16
NY	WALDEN 1 ESE	COOP	17
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	18

 

Data for December 3, 1976 through December 3, 1976
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Lowest Min Temperature
CT	NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT	COOP	1
NY	YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W	COOP	2
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	2
NY	WALDEN 1 ESE	COOP	3
NY	BEDFORD HILLS	COOP	3
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	4
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	4
CT	DANBURY	COOP	4
NY	CARMEL	COOP	5
CT	MOUNT CARMEL	COOP	5
CT	GROTON	COOP	5
NY	MARYKNOLL	COOP	5
NJ	ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG	COOP	6
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	7
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	7
NY	WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	7
NY	SUFFERN	COOP	7
NY	MIDDLETOWN 2 NW	COOP	7
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	8
NJ	LITTLE FALLS	COOP	8
NY	SCARSDALE	COOP	8
CT	WESTBROOK	COOP	8
NY	ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	8
CT	MIDDLETOWN 4 W	COOP	8
NY	DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	8
NJ	JERSEY CITY	COOP	9
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	9
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	9

[gravitylover]

5 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

It looks per the Euro that we're going to get into a clipper type pattern for a significant period of time. This means a milder day or two here and there but also repeated incursions of colder air with the risk of some light snow when the the clipper storm systems move across and there is some cold air still in place. Some of these systems may stay south of the NYC Metro but others could drop over the area from the north and west. As long as it lasts, these systems generally do not bring heavy or even moderate precipitation to the are so precip amounts should be near to perhaps a bit below normal. But we'll experience some cold and who knows, maybe we'll get lucky with a dusting to 2" at some point.

WX/PT

It's been years since anyone has forecast clippers around here. That's so nice to see. 

[psv88]

9 hours ago, vegan_edible said:

i'll take 2 inches for some holiday spirit

That’s…what she said…

[eduggs]

14 hours ago, bluewave said:

Using the 850 mb temperature anomalies in recent months has been deceptive since the 2m temperatures have been running warmer across the CONUS. On top of that, raw model 2m temp anomalies forecasts have been running cooler than the actual temperatures and the MOS on the colder days. But most weather map providers don’t have MOS corrected 2 m temperatures. There has been very little cold in Eastern Canada this fall.

 

 

Yeah not a ton of cold air around this fall. But I want to reiterate my point that 2m temp. anomalies are misleading in terms of describing airmasses. The 2m temp maps that you posted yesterday gave a false impression of warm air when in fact the forecasted airmass was seasonably cold and theoretically supportive of wintry precip. for part of our region during that time period.

Cloudy nights usually show up as strongly positive 2m temp. anomalies even with a fairly cold airmass because of the lack of nighttime thermal radiation relative to average. 

[vegan_edible]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

That’s…what she said…

ayo

[SRRTA22]

This probably belongs in banter but between 2006-2016 how many blockbusters did we have? 

I'll answer that for you...ALOT. We were blessed and we really need this break to appreciate that. 1 year snowless and everyone goes crazy haha we'll be okay. 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

9 hours ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Do you think the pattern will turn colder/snowier as we get closer to Christmas?

There is a chance we will have to wait until later on. Clipper patterns tend to be on the drier side and with a big ridge over the western 2/3 of the country there's little moisture to be had unless you're right by the Gulf of Mexico or in Florida. Anyway in the longterm the pattern could change quickly at almost any time. So we'll see.

WX/PT

[Wxoutlooksblog]

4 hours ago, gravitylover said:

It's been years since anyone has forecast clippers around here. That's so nice to see. 

I agree. Just a few adjustments out west and up north and clippers are capable of tapping bitterly cold air from central and eastern Canada and driving it across the Great Lakes and into the northeast. Right now the ridge is a little too expansive. It needs to retrograde or re-align itself for that to happen.

WX/PT