December 2023

[LibertyBell]

19 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Yep, so I’m not that concerned with it coming late, I know that happens in El Niño. We already see in the big storms we have this month, if we can time some cold air with one or two of them we’ll be set. That end of Dec-Jan stretch in 2010-11 is probably once in a lifetime though. That was epic. 

and in a la nina (la ninas after el ninos are our best snowfall seasons)

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, Tatamy said:

I was up in northeastern Pennsylvania today where there was actually some snow on the ground from overnight snow showers.  It was very hit or miss with some places having about a 1/2” - 3/4” OTG while many others were green and brown like these parts.  I actually saw some blowing snow in one area - that was a shock to see.  2000’ in the Poconos got you 3/4”.  I did come across one place where there was a shopping center with a sheet of ice in the parking lot.  I don’t miss that.  I am guessing that area will have a Christmas as brown as ours.

Thanks I'm headed up there in a couple of hours!  So a little less than an inch up my way?

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Records

 

Highs:

EWR: 60 (1931)
NYC: 58 (1931)
LGA: 57 (1957)


Lows:

EWR: 9 (1942)
NYC: -1 (1884)
LGA: 14 (1980)

Historical:

 

 

1777 - The Continental Army moved into encampment at Valley Forge amidst stormy winds and piercing cold. A relatively moderate winter followed. (David Ludlum)

1924 - The Riverside Ranger Station in Yellowstone Park, WY, reported a low of 59 degrees below zero, a December record for the U.S. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1957 - A tornado, 200 yards in width, killed two persons along its 15-mile path from near Waldo to near Bueana Vista in southwestern Arkansas. People from one house were carried 250 yards, and cars were said to have been carried 600 yards. (The Weather Channel)

1967 - A record 83 inches of snow covered the ground at Flagstaff, AZ. The heavy snows inflicted great hardships on reservations. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 90 mph at Venus TX and Providence LA. Rain prevailed from the Southern Plains to the Middle Mississippi Valley. Small stream flooding was reported around Columbia MO. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Low pressure and a trailing cold front in the central U.S. brought snow and high winds to parts of the Rocky Mountain Region. Winds in Colorado gusted to 67 mph at La Junta. Thunderstorms along the same cold front produced wind gusts to 65 mph at Kansas City MO. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - High winds and heavy snow plagued the northern and central Rockies. Snowfall totals in Montana ranged up to 12 inches at Lincoln, and wind gusts in Colorado reached 97 mph at Squaw Mountain. Twelve cities in the north central U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Dickinson ND with a reading of 26 degrees below zero. Bismarck ND was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of 35 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2008 - A snow and ice storm on December 19 affected parts of the U.S. Midwest. Over 220,000 homes and businesses across Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio were left without electric services. No fatalities were reported (Reuters).

 

2009: Snowfall totals from 1 to 2 feet were commonplace in what will go down as one of the biggest snowstorms in history on the East Coast and the first of four snowstorms for the Mid-Atlantic during the winter of 2009-10. The 15 inches of snow measured at Reagan International Airport on Dec. 19th was the third-highest daily snowfall on any calendar day at Washington, DC, since snowfall records began in 1884. The total storm snowfall of 16.4 inches on Dec 18-19 2009 marks the 6th highest two-day snowfall record for Washington, DC putting it just below the second President's Day storm in 2003 and ahead of the Jan 1996 storm. Baltimore Washington Airport saw 20.5 inches of snow and went down as the fifth-highest daily snowfall on any calendar day in Baltimore since snowfall records began in 1893. The total storm snowfall of 21.0 inches on Dec 18-19 2009 marks the 6th highest two-day snowfall record for Baltimore. The daily snowfall records for Dec 19 were smashed for the most snowfall for any calendar day during December at the following stations. Reagan National Airport's new record was 15.0 inches, old record 11.5 in 1932. Baltimore Washington Airport's new record was 20.5 inches, old record 11.5 in 1932. This was the biggest December snowstorm on record and setting a record for the snowiest December for Baltimore, MD. Dulles Airport's new record was 16.0 inches, old record 10.6 in 1982. Richmond International Airport had a total of 6.4 inches. Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, reported its second greatest daily snowfall total on record with 22.9 inches. It also was the single most significant December snowfall for the city of Philadelphia, PA. Roanoke, Virginia, recorded 17.8 inches setting a record for the greatest 24-hour snowfall in December. Washington, DC, reported 16.4 inches of snowmaking 2009 the snowiest December on record, all in one storm. In New York, Upton on Long Island recorded 26.3 inches, the biggest snowstorm on record.

So this was when the warmth of the historic 1931-32 winter began.....

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Winter futility rankings through December 19th: Winter 2023-2024 is yet another warm, late-starting winter:

Mean seasonal snowfall for the 9 winters listed with 2023-24: 17.2"

Most seasonal snowfall: 32.8", 2015-16

Least seasonal snowfall: 3.5", 2001-02

22-23 isnt even on this list and ended up the highest ranking in futility?

[North and West]

Please no. I spent 10 hours yesterday sucking water out of my basement with a shop vac and this morning it's worse than yesterday. I'll be ordering a dupster to throw out a bunch of stuff we liked.

Geez, I’m sorry. Where are you located?


.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks for this Don,

It's incredible that we went from 2 strong la Ninas to a strong El Nino with no transitional period. Would have to believe that if this El nino was weak to moderate we could have had an above to much above snowfall winter with the warm water fuel currently in the Atlantic. 

Now I am hearing that we could be heading into a moderate to strong la Nina next year! This could lead to yet another highly disappointing winter.

In trying to be optimistic, 95/96 was a weak la Nina following an El nino. Perhaps we can replicate to a certain degree? This does feel a LOT like the late 80s through the 90s (year after year of disappointment).

Sorry to ask and no worries if it is unavailable, however do you have the mean snowfall for 1989 through 1999? Also, are you able to remove 1996 for comparison purposes, as that winter would have skewed the statistics tremendously.

Thanks!

weak to moderate phases are becoming much less common

 

[North and West]

We’re due for a depressing stretch. Even putting climate change aside which will make it worse, the tendency for more Nina stretches (barring that, the boiling W PAC isn’t going away which drives the Nina like patterns), -PDO cycle etc is unfavorable for us. We can pull rabbits out of a hat in -PDO/La Niña periods but generally they suck. Too soon to say we’re in the depressing new regime but the factors I mentioned would drive it. 

Ding. Regression to the mean, even without considering background AGW.


.

[LibertyBell]

52 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Found this courtesy of the weather underground site. I did not realize that the 50s, 70s and 80s had less snowfall than the 90s, which I pegged as the least snowy period for NYC.

The last two decades moved the average pretty high (i feel lucky to have lived through). Would be interesting to see if 2020 through 2029 can rival the 70s (personally hope not lol).

70s and 80s were much less snowy than the 90s, the 80s especially, no above normal snowfall seasons that entire decade

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks for this Don,

It's incredible that we went from 2 strong la Ninas to a strong El Nino with no transitional period. Would have to believe that if this El nino was weak to moderate we could have had an above to much above snowfall winter with the warm water fuel currently in the Atlantic. 

Now I am hearing that we could be heading into a moderate to strong la Nina next year! This could lead to yet another highly disappointing winter.

In trying to be optimistic, 95/96 was a weak la Nina following an El nino. Perhaps we can replicate to a certain degree? This does feel a LOT like the late 80s through the 90s (year after year of disappointment).

Sorry to ask and no worries if it is unavailable, however do you have the mean snowfall for 1989 through 1999? Also, are you able to remove 1996 for comparison purposes, as that winter would have skewed the statistics tremendously.

Thanks!

Don't get ahead of yourself......the tropical season looks like it may be off of the charts and la Nina winters following high ACE seasons have been pretty kind to the east...even raindance will tell you that. A lot will depend on how quickly the solar wind picks up and distributes the geomagnetic energy following solar max...if that can hold off for one more year, we may be able to sneak it in before the run of +AO/NAO winters that comes with descending solar.

[Allsnow]

Mjo still looks good imo for a colder start to January. I would expect to see higher hgts in Ak as we work deeper into the first week of January 

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Don't get ahead of yourself......the tropical season looks like it may be off of the charts and la Nina winters following high ACE seasons have been pretty kind to the east...even raindance will tell you that. A lot will depend on how quickly the solar wind picks up and distributes the geomagnetic energy following solar max...if that can hold off for one more year, we may be able to sneak it in before the run of +AO/NAO winters that comes with descending solar.

and the summer will probably be extremely hot, as summers after strong el ninos usually are

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Don't get ahead of yourself......the tropical season looks like it may be off of the charts and la Nina winters following high ACE seasons have been pretty kind to the east...even raindance will tell you that. A lot will depend on how quickly the solar wind picks up and distributes the geomagnetic energy following solar max...if that can hold off for one more year, we may be able to sneak it in before the run of +AO/NAO winters that comes with descending solar.

la ninas after el ninos are usually our snowiest winters as you know

[forkyfork]

does regression to the mean imply we'll start getting better decembers in the distant future? lol

[Allsnow]

P3 response for Nino in January and the eps from last night 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Allsnow said:

P3 response for Nino in January and the eps from last night 

I'd hit it-

[Stormlover74]

31 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

22-23 isnt even on this list and ended up the highest ranking in futility?

Only through December 19th 

[Allsnow]

9 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

does regression to the mean imply we'll start getting better decembers in the distant future? lol

“It just snowed in December 2020” 

[Stormlover74]

36 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

70s and 80s were much less snowy than the 90s, the 80s especially, no above normal snowfall seasons that entire decade

The 80s averaged closed to 20" a season at central park 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

The 80s averaged closed to 20" a season at central park 

that was the only decade in the teens right? and the 70s were in the low 20s?

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

The 80s averaged closed to 20" a season at central park 

20” sounds like a huge winter nowadays 

[EastonSN+]

10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

20” sounds like a huge winter nowadays 

The top are the yearly average snowfall stats for the 80s for NYC. The second half of the 80s through the 90s were putrid for the most part.

[gravitylover]

57 minutes ago, North and West said:

Geez, I’m sorry. Where are you located?


.

Mahopac. I guess the ground reached the point of total saturation because it appears to be seeping through the 75 year old walls. 

[EastonSN+]

37 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

does regression to the mean imply we'll start getting better decembers in the distant future? lol

Could be, however it may be distributed late month i.e. we lose early month snowfall events while potentially seeing stronger late month events. Less chance of suppression IF we do have a stronger SE Ridge.

 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The top are the yearly average snowfall stats for the 80s for NYC. The second half of the 80s through the 90s were putrid for the most part.

the 92-93 through 95-96 period was great, it was before and after that were bad.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Could be, however it may be distributed late month i.e. we lose early month snowfall events while potentially seeing stronger late month events. Less chance of suppression IF we do have a stronger SE Ridge.

 

Look at the 80s when the winters were actually colder but we had less snow lol

and we all know the 70s were colder, and yet still less snow.

 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

the 92-93 through 95-96 period was great, it was before and after that were bad.

 

94/95 was a one storm wonder, though it was my first 1 foot storm since 1983.

[bluewave]

Who knows what normal means anymore with our snowfall when NYC goes from the snowiest 5 year period to the 7th least snowiest 5 year period in the same 10 year period. 

 

Maximum 5-Year Total Snowfall 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Dates	Missing Days
Period of record: 1871-01-01 to 2023-12-19
1	209.4	2014-01-01 through 2018-12-31	0
2	205.2	1914-01-01 through 1918-12-31	2
3	204.9	1892-01-01 through 1896-12-31	3
4	204.3	1893-01-01 through 1897-12-31	3
5	202.1	1944-01-01 through 1948-12-31	0
6	199.4	2013-01-01 through 2017-12-31	0
7	197.0	1871-01-01 through 1875-12-31	0
8	193.4	1872-01-01 through 1876-12-31	0
9	193.0	2010-01-01 through 2014-12-31	0
10	191.3	1895-01-01 through 1899-12-31	3

 

Minimum 5-Year Total Snowfall 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Dates	Missing Days
Period of record: 1871-01-01 to 2023-12-19
1	66.1	1928-01-01 through 1932-12-31	0
2	66.2	1927-01-01 through 1931-12-31	0
3	71.9	1951-01-01 through 1955-12-31	0
4	72.2	1950-01-01 through 1954-12-31	0
5	74.8	1988-01-01 through 1992-12-31	0
6	77.0	1949-01-01 through 1953-12-31	0
7	77.7	2019-01-01 through 2023-12-31	12
9	79.4	1997-01-01 through 2001-12-31	1
10	81.8	1973-01-01 through 1977-12-31	0
-	77.7	1971-01-01 through 1975-12-31	0

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

22-23 isnt even on this list and ended up the highest ranking in futility?

That’s only through December 19th. 2022-23 ultimately finished second overall.

[Dark Star]

Physics Course 102a    Much like the “Fire Triangle”, Snow, at least in the NYC metro area, requires three things; Cold Air, moisture, and luck.  I consider snow a miracle in these parts.  While we have seen certain anomalous episodes (especially recently) where a storm can seemingly “manufacture” cold air, you still need a cold air source nearby.  Pacific air to our north doesn’t quite cut it. 

[LibertyBell]

25 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

94/95 was a one storm wonder, though it was my first 1 foot storm since 1983.

trust me that was a lot better than both before and after when we didn't even get any 6" snow events lol