December 2023

[Volcanic Winter]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Winter starts in 2 days 

I do appreciate your unflappable optimism, dude. Excited to (hopefully) vibe with you in a storm thread or three!

[WestBabylonWeather]

If anyone follows Larry cosgrove on the facebooks, his latest posts shows enthusiasm for the post January thaw period. 

[wishcast_hater]

48 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Winter starts in 2 days 

And spring starts on the 25th? Just like last year my AccuWeather App always shows cold 8 to 10 days out but it never comes. Gives me a low of 10 degrees on the 2nd, meanwhile 5 days earlier it showed a low of 1 degree the day after Christmas and that got pushed almost a week away.

I want to believe things will change but its been a long time coming and alot of disappointments along the way.

[Stormlover74]

13 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

If anyone follows Larry cosgrove on the facebooks, his latest posts shows enthusiasm for the post January thaw period. 

He hyped last year too

[WestBabylonWeather]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

He hyped last year too

Damnit. 

[JTA66]

Something has to freeze first before there can be a thaw...just sayin'.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, JTA66 said:

Something has to freeze first before there can be a thaw...just sayin'.

Yeah can we get some cold and snow first before talking about the post thaw period

[weatherpruf]

3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Yep, so I’m not that concerned with it coming late, I know that happens in El Niño. We already see in the big storms we have this month, if we can time some cold air with one or two of them we’ll be set. That end of Dec-Jan stretch in 2010-11 is probably once in a lifetime though. That was epic. 

Nothing beats 94, but you might have been too young for it. I mean, it was cold, bro....plus ice and snow and everything in between, capped off by an epic March sleet storm that was like 5-6 inches. It was insane.

[Cfa]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Winter starts in 2 days 

Met winter nearly 1/4th done.

[Cfa]

Soil temp still comfortably in the 50’s, impressive for almost-late December. Last winter it dipped under 40 for a grand total of 30 minutes (I wish I was joking) on the morning of Feb 5th.

[psv88]

4 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Soil temp still comfortably in the 50’s, impressive for almost-late December. Last winter it dipped under 40 for a grand total of 30 minutes on the morning of Feb 5th.

Grass is nice and green headed into the new year 

[suzook]

My grass with all the rain, and warm temps is green, and dare I say growing??

[Cfa]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Grass is nice and green headed into the new year 

The deep green grass + pine tree combo makes it look more like spring or fall.

[psv88]

1 minute ago, suzook said:

My grass with all the rain, and warm temps is green, and dare I say growing??

Maybe a good winter for landscapers?

[psv88]

Just now, Cfa said:

The deep green grass + pine tree combo makes it look more like spring or fall.

My green giant arborvitae are already commencing their annual bronzing, probably due to the wind 

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, Cfa said:

The deep green grass + pine tree combo makes it look more like spring or fall.

Weeds will get a big jumpstart in February with the warm soil temps 

[kingbaus]

Hopefully this Nino winter can produce a 2011 or 2016 style snowstorm.

[North and West]

I had 30” of snow in 2-3 weeks in Feb 2021. If I can arrange that again I’ll sign in a heartbeat. 12/26/10 to 1/27/11 was one month which was 4 feet in many areas. 

We had 48” or so in and around MMU in February 2021. Bonkers stuff and had to dig paths for our newly adopted puppy at that time.


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[North and West]

I can’t even imagine what the 2015 blitz was like for you guys. 2013-2015 was fantastic even down here, but mind boggling up your way. 
I actually had pack and retention through both winters down here living near the coast, it was wonderful. Though the snow totals weren’t the extravaganza you had, the persistent cold kept it around and the whole winter had that enjoyable kind of wintry vibe. 
 
But yeah, I’m in awe of 2015 up your ways. Unreal. 

1994.


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[North and West]

Last winter? This winter.




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[RedSky]

38 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Weeds will get a big jumpstart in February with the warm soil temps 

And the yellowjackets

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, JTA66 said:

Something has to freeze first before there can be a thaw...just sayin'.

We have had plenty of hostile patterns in December since 2011, but the snow extent across North America is the lowest in nearly 20 years. 
 

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_monitor.html

 

 

[snowman19]

We have had plenty of hostile patterns in December since 2011, but the snow extent across North America is the lowest in nearly 20 years. 
 
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_monitor.html


 
 

Snowcover on our side of the pole would be bad for late November let alone late December. This is abysmal too:

[MJO812]

Crazy gfs differences from 12z

[WX-PA]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We have had plenty of hostile patterns in December since 2011, but the snow extent across North America is the lowest in nearly 20 years. 
 

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_monitor.html

 

 

Strong nino..to be expected in December. No big surprise..We still have 3 winter months to go.

[the_other_guy]

It’s 34F with a stiff wind out. I just read the last several posts and I think you guys are in a disturbing echo chamber.

 

I want to know where the grass is green and growing, where its warm, and where it doesnt feel and look like Dec 19th right now. Enjoy the cold week Gloomy Doomys. It will be rainy and 50 next week

[kdennis78]

So the area is showing rain on Tuesday next week. Any insight into the scope of the rain, and if we are getting intense, more than a half inch total rain?

[donsutherland1]

Colder air now covers the region. Another shot of cold air will arrive to end the week. However, the cold will be far from severe.

No Arctic air appears likely through the remainder of December. A transition to a colder pattern could commence during the first week of January. Severe cold appears unlikely early in the transition.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.0°C for the week centered around December 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. El Niño conditions may strengthen somewhat further this month.  

The SOI was +0.47 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.292 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January.

On December 17 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.661 (RMM). The December 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.737 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.8° (3.7° above normal).

 

[Yanksfan]

35 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Crazy gfs differences from 12z

Looked like the beginnings of an east coast snow mauler at the end of the run. One can only dream.

 

 

[North and West]

Looked like the beginnings of an east coast snow mauler at the end of the run. One can only dream.
 
 

I love MJO812’s unbridled optimism. I have no idea who is right and who is wrong, but it’s a nice counterweight to negativity (not the forecasts).


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