December 2023

[Volcanic Winter]

@snowman19

How do you feel about January and perhaps February? Genuinely interested in your take. 

Do you anticipate improvement to our snow chances or do you think it’ll continue to be a struggle? 
 

I’ve followed your thoughts in the ENSO thread but was curious if based on current guidance you have any other insights. Thanks man. 

[North and West]

If we get to 1/15 in ANY year and it's not looking good, it's probably not coming.   

.

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

@snowman19

How do you feel about January and perhaps February? Genuinely interested in your take. 

Do you anticipate improvement to our snow chances or do you think it’ll continue to be a struggle? 
 

I’ve followed your thoughts in the ENSO thread but was curious if based on current guidance you have any other insights. Thanks man. 

Just wait for the newsletter

[Allsnow]

11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The hallmark of a ratter-a 2 to 3 week winter LOL.  Let's hope it delivers....

Haha. Ya know this, we can’t punt an entire month of winter at this latitude and expect a good winter. Normally strong ninos are one and done around here. 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Haha. Ya know this, we can’t punt an entire month of winter at this latitude and expect a good winter. Normally strong ninos are one and done around here. 

if January and February are both good, then it can still be a very good winter.

Look at the snowfall totals of 1977-78 and also 2014-15

 

 

[Volcanic Winter]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

if January and February are both good, then it can still be a very good winter.

Look at the snowfall totals of 1977-78 and also 2014-15

 

 

Agreed. That’s what @40/70 Benchmarkis thinking, roughly. We see improvements in Jan (still a ‘thaw’) and then a solid Feb with periods of blocking. His blog / forecast was really outstanding with tons of analysis and consideration towards a ton of factors. I think he pegged NYC for 25-35 this season overall. 

Of course, I’m hoping he’s onto something! 

[Dark Star]

27 minutes ago, North and West said:

.

Amen.

[jm1220]

29 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The hallmark of a ratter-a 2 to 3 week winter LOL.  Let's hope it delivers....

I had 30” of snow in 2-3 weeks in Feb 2021. If I can arrange that again I’ll sign in a heartbeat. 12/26/10 to 1/27/11 was one month which was 4 feet in many areas. 

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I had 30” of snow in 2-3 weeks in Feb 2021. If I can arrange that again I’ll sign in a heartbeat. 12/26/10 to 1/27/11 was one month which was 4 feet in many areas. 

Yep-that's all you really need.  Alot of great winters are defined by 1 or 2 storms--77-78- there was only one storm all of February....

[Volcanic Winter]

20 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I had 30” of snow in 2-3 weeks in Feb 2021. If I can arrange that again I’ll sign in a heartbeat. 12/26/10 to 1/27/11 was one month which was 4 feet in many areas. 

I was in North Brunswick for that latter stretch living in a ground floor apartment with my then girlfriend, now wife. That stretch was absolutely bonkers, Boxing Day put snow drifts almost all the way to the top of the front door. And it was just constant shoveling with my car getting plowed in and buried multiple times… was a trip!

Dec 09 was also insane in Long Branch while I was living near school (MU). I have to find my pics of that storm, it was so fun. 

[jm1220]

13 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I was in North Brunswick for that latter stretch living in a ground floor apartment with my then girlfriend, now wife. That stretch was absolutely bonkers, Boxing Day put snow drifts almost all the way to the top of the front door. And it was just constant shoveling with my car getting plowed in and buried multiple times… was a trip!

Yep, so I’m not that concerned with it coming late, I know that happens in El Niño. We already see in the big storms we have this month, if we can time some cold air with one or two of them we’ll be set. That end of Dec-Jan stretch in 2010-11 is probably once in a lifetime though. That was epic. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Agreed. That’s what @40/70 Benchmarkis thinking, roughly. We see improvements in Jan (still a ‘thaw’) and then a solid Feb with periods of blocking. His blog / forecast was really outstanding with tons of analysis and consideration towards a ton of factors. I think he pegged NYC for 25-35 this season overall. 

Of course, I’m hoping he’s onto something! 

However, I do not expect snowfall totals rivaling either of those seasons...at least in SNE, but otherwise agreed.

[Volcanic Winter]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

However, I do not expect snowfall totals rivaling either of those seasons...at least in SNE, but otherwise agreed.

Understood, thank you for all the work and effort you put into your blog. It’s really outstanding work. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Volcanic Winter said:

Understood, thank you for all the work and effort you put into your blog. It’s really outstanding work. 

I never realized what a treasure this subforum is.....if you have an open mind, one can actually learn the most from perspectives that don't always necessarily align with that of your own. Really appreciate the alternate lens through which some of you guys view things.

[WX-PA]

1 hour ago, NittanyWx said:

He's making a fair point about the seasonal IOD collapse and subsequent weakening of the standing wave signal in the IO.  Not sure that's necessarily the way out on it's own like he's indicating here, but the path analysis to source region shift makes sense conceptually.

What's IOD?...seems like that's another way for it not to snow here?..lol

[gravitylover]

@40/70 Benchmark Sometimes our reputation is justified but more often it's just what you said. 

[Volcanic Winter]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I never realized what a treasure this subforum is.....if you have an open mind, one can actually learn the most from perspectives that don't always necessarily align with that of your own. Really appreciate the alternate lens through which some of you guys view things.

I can’t even imagine what the 2015 blitz was like for you guys. 2013-2015 was fantastic even down here, but mind boggling up your way. 

I actually had pack and retention through both winters down here living near the coast, it was wonderful. Though the snow totals weren’t the extravaganza you had, the persistent cold kept it around and the whole winter had that enjoyable kind of wintry vibe. 
 

But yeah, I’m in awe of 2015 up your ways. Unreal. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

@40/70 Benchmark Sometimes our reputation is justified but more often it's just what you said. 

Every subforum has some weenies, though....SNE has them. Bluewave reminds me of raindance in the sense that I initially mocked him because I didn't like much of what he had to say, until I quietly realized that he probably knows more than I do.

Humility is the greatest gift anyone can ever give you.

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I can’t even imagine what the 2015 blitz was like for you guys. 2013-2015 was fantastic even down here, but mind boggling up your way. 

I actually had pack and retention through both winters down here living near the coast, it was wonderful. Though the snow totals weren’t the extravaganza you had, the persistent cold kept it around and the whole winter had that enjoyable kind of wintry vibe. 
 

But yeah, I’m in awe of 2015 up your ways. Unreal. 

I got on the subway around Memorial day to go into Boston and there were still snow piles along side of a warehouse where the snow had slid off of the metal roof during the winter. And I live NW of town...the south shore was ground zero.

That is absurd for coastal SNE...that is like Jackman, ME shit.

[Brian5671]

32 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yep, so I’m not that concerned with it coming late, I know that happens in El Niño. We already see in the big storms we have this month, if we can time some cold air with one or two of them we’ll be set. That end of Dec-Jan stretch in 2010-11 is probably once in a lifetime though. That was epic. 

the places that intersected for 09-10 and 10-11 had back to back epic winters.  (09-10 was not great here)   But let's say Philly to just south of NYC they got nailed both years well.

[psv88]

Closing the shades for the next week. brutal winter so far 

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Closing the shades for the next week. brutal winter so far 

Yep...enjoy the time with friends and family-at least there won't be many travel headaches....

[NittanyWx]

1 hour ago, WX-PA said:

What's IOD?...seems like that's another way for it not to snow here?..lol

The Indian Ocean Dipole.  Coupled atmospheric/ocean temperature pattern, measured by the difference between ocean temps off the coast of NE Africa and Sumatra.

 

Indian Ocean climate influences (bom.gov.au)

[David-LI]

When was the last date that NYC metro area saw more than 2 inches of snow?

[Stormlover74]

Just now, David-LI said:

When was the last date that NYC metro area saw more than 2 inches of snow?

Last Feb 28 some places managed that. I think I had 2.4

[Brian5671]

8 minutes ago, David-LI said:

When was the last date that NYC metro area saw more than 2 inches of snow?

Central park is Feb or Jan 2022.  They had .9 last Feb but that's been it-so almost 2 years

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I can’t even imagine what the 2015 blitz was like for you guys. 2013-2015 was fantastic even down here, but mind boggling up your way. 

I actually had pack and retention through both winters down here living near the coast, it was wonderful. Though the snow totals weren’t the extravaganza you had, the persistent cold kept it around and the whole winter had that enjoyable kind of wintry vibe. 
 

But yeah, I’m in awe of 2015 up your ways. Unreal. 

2014-2015 I would rate as very good to excellent for Long Island but the best was NE of here. Got skunked narrowly a few times but it went to town for SNE. 

[jm1220]

24 minutes ago, David-LI said:

When was the last date that NYC metro area saw more than 2 inches of snow?

If you mean the metro area there was 4-6” outside the city/south shore/north of I-78 on 2/28/23 but it was gone in a day. The UHI probably prevented much from accumulating since it was so marginal. On the Great South Bay maybe 30 minute drive south of me it was white rain. I had 5” of glue.

[Eduardo]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Every subforum has some weenies, though....SNE has them. Bluewave reminds me of raindance in the sense that I initially mocked him because I didn't like much of what he had to say, until I quietly realized that he probably knows more than I do.

Humility is the greatest gift anyone can ever give you.

Chris @bluewave is one of the most solid, knowledgeable, objective posters I’ve encountered in any forum.  He was (correctly) super bullish on cold and snow from the time I first interacted with him (in 2009?) until the magic stopped a few years back.  Since then, broadly-speaking, he’s been correct that we’d be in the doldrums until the PAC cooperates.

Glad you’ve been dropping by here, @40/70 Benchmark.  I enjoy reading your analysis as well!

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Closing the shades for the next week. brutal winter so far 

Winter starts in 2 days