December 2023

[bluewave]

10 hours ago, Allsnow said:

@bluewave do you have the link for the pac jet ext grid forecast? 

Is this the link that you were looking for?

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/awinters/realtime/Deterministic_NPJPD.php

[Allsnow]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Is this the link that you were looking for?

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/awinters/realtime/Deterministic_NPJPD.php

Yes. Thank you 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 64 (1937)
NYC: 63 (1984)
LGA: 62 (2006)

Lows:

EWR: 13 (1953)
NYC: -1 (1919)
LGA: 16 (1953)

 

Historical:

 

1957 - A tornado swept across Jackson County, Williamson County and Franklin County in southern Illinois killing eleven persons. (David Ludlum)

1981 - A heavy lake-effect snow blanketed the southern and southeast shores of Lake Michigan leaving up to 22 inches of snow at Valparaiso IND. (David Ludlum)

1983 - Record cold hit the north central states. At Havre, MT, the mercury plunged to a record reading of 34 degrees below zero. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1984 - A storm over southern California left up to 16 inches of snow in the mountains and upper deserts, with 13 inches reported at Lancaster. Edwards Air Force Base was closed, and Interstate 5 was closed from Castaic to the Tehachapis Mountains. (18th-19th) (The Weather Channel)

1986 - A strong winter storm, which developed off the coast of New Jersey and moved out to sea, lashed the northeastern U.S. with high winds, heavy rain, and heavy snow. The storm left snowfall amounts of up to 30 inches in Vermont, 24 inches in Massachusetts, and 20 inches in New Hampshire. The highest rainfall amounts approached four inches in southern New England, where winds gusted to 70 mph. (Storm Data)

1987 - A weakening storm moved into the Rocky Mountain Region producing six inches of snow at the Platoro Reservoir in the San Juan Mountains of Colorado. The storm then spread rain and drizzle across the Southern High Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley, with thunderstorms over Texas. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Warm weather prevailed in the central U.S. while cool weather prevailed across the eastern states. Sheridan, WY, with a record warm afternoon high of 68 degrees, was seven degrees warmer than Key West FL. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - A winter storm moving out of the Great Plains Region spread freezing rain, sleet and snow across parts of the southeastern U.S. Freezing rain resulted in 170 auto accidents in the Memphis area during the evening hours. Unseasonably warm weather continued ahead of arctic cold front. Miami FL equalled their record for December with an afternoon high of 87 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

2009 - A monster snow storm affected the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions of the U.S. on December 18th through December 20th. The storm originated in the Gulf of Mexico and moved northward along the Eastern Seaboard, leaving behind heavy snow accumulations from North Carolina to Massachusetts. Impacts from this storm included the closing of major airports, interstate highways, and rail systems. Over 1,200 flights were cancelled at the three major airports in the New York City area, and hundreds of thousands of people lost power due to the storm. Seven people were reported killed across the Mid-Atlantic (source: Reuters). Over two feet of snow accumulation was reported in portions of North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey, and New York. At one point, the storm was over 500 miles in width, and affected 14 states and tens of millions of Americans (Source: AFP).

[SACRUS]

1986 winter storm

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Had stronger +EPOs in early December 1952 and 1959. But were still able to manage an Eastern trough with the -AO +PNA patterns. Keep seeing some version of the Southeast ridge with teleconnection combos that it was usually absent in during the past.
 

 

Blocking looks more significant in 1952...but like I said, I am sure it's a combination. I have never denied CC....you are just more aggressive with attribution than I am. This is the reason I like to use 1951-2010 climo for analog composites...no question global heights are greater now.

[coastalplainsnowman]

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 64 (1937)
NYC: 63 (1984)
LGA: 62 (2006)

Lows:

EWR: 13 (1953)
NYC: -1 (1919)
LGA: 16 (1953)

 

Historical:

 

1957 - A tornado swept across Jackson County, Williamson County and Franklin County in southern Illinois killing eleven persons. (David Ludlum)

1981 - A heavy lake-effect snow blanketed the southern and southeast shores of Lake Michigan leaving up to 22 inches of snow at Valparaiso IND. (David Ludlum)

1983 - Record cold hit the north central states. At Havre, MT, the mercury plunged to a record reading of 34 degrees below zero. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1984 - A storm over southern California left up to 16 inches of snow in the mountains and upper deserts, with 13 inches reported at Lancaster. Edwards Air Force Base was closed, and Interstate 5 was closed from Castaic to the Tehachapis Mountains. (18th-19th) (The Weather Channel)

1986 - A strong winter storm, which developed off the coast of New Jersey and moved out to sea, lashed the northeastern U.S. with high winds, heavy rain, and heavy snow. The storm left snowfall amounts of up to 30 inches in Vermont, 24 inches in Massachusetts, and 20 inches in New Hampshire. The highest rainfall amounts approached four inches in southern New England, where winds gusted to 70 mph. (Storm Data)

1987 - A weakening storm moved into the Rocky Mountain Region producing six inches of snow at the Platoro Reservoir in the San Juan Mountains of Colorado. The storm then spread rain and drizzle across the Southern High Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley, with thunderstorms over Texas. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Warm weather prevailed in the central U.S. while cool weather prevailed across the eastern states. Sheridan, WY, with a record warm afternoon high of 68 degrees, was seven degrees warmer than Key West FL. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - A winter storm moving out of the Great Plains Region spread freezing rain, sleet and snow across parts of the southeastern U.S. Freezing rain resulted in 170 auto accidents in the Memphis area during the evening hours. Unseasonably warm weather continued ahead of arctic cold front. Miami FL equalled their record for December with an afternoon high of 87 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

2009 - A monster snow storm affected the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions of the U.S. on December 18th through December 20th. The storm originated in the Gulf of Mexico and moved northward along the Eastern Seaboard, leaving behind heavy snow accumulations from North Carolina to Massachusetts. Impacts from this storm included the closing of major airports, interstate highways, and rail systems. Over 1,200 flights were cancelled at the three major airports in the New York City area, and hundreds of thousands of people lost power due to the storm. Seven people were reported killed across the Mid-Atlantic (source: Reuters). Over two feet of snow accumulation was reported in portions of North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey, and New York. At one point, the storm was over 500 miles in width, and affected 14 states and tens of millions of Americans (Source: AFP).

Thanks for these posts - these are great.   I read them every time I'm on here, and kind of take them for granted, just like I do for a lot of the great stuff that you, Don, and others post daily.  ( I'm sure I'm not the only one guilty of this.)  Thanks for all the time you put into these.

[Volcanic Winter]

11 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Thanks for these posts - these are great.   I read them every time I'm on here, and kind of take them for granted, just like I do for a lot of the great stuff that you, Don, and others post daily.  ( I'm sure I'm not the only one guilty of this.)  Thanks for all the time you put into these.

The amount of data, facts, recollection, and analyses posted here daily has continually blown my mind since the day I signed up. 

Probably why half my phone browser is AmericanWX tabs and I spend more time on here than I care to admit .

[kdennis78]

So are there any minor storms and deluges coming before New Years Day? Are there any long range coastal storms or back to back major rain storms on the horizon? I can't take this anymore. I need a break and a few weeks, if not months, of zero precipitation.

[North and West]

.

[bluewave]

With a little luck our next rain event will hold off until after Christmas. But it will push the rainfall totals this year even higher. Numerous spots are already over 60.00 and NYC and LGA just need a few more inches. FLL will be the most extreme rainfall record this year for the CONUS.

 

Data for January 1, 2023 through December 19, 2023
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Total Precipitation
CT	NORTHFORD 0.8 SW	CoCoRaHS	66.73
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	66.21
CT	PROSPECT 1.9 ENE	CoCoRaHS	64.77
NY	PEEKSKILL 0.4 N	CoCoRaHS	64.54
CT	SEYMOUR 1.2 WSW	CoCoRaHS	64.42
CT	NORWICH 2.5 NNE	CoCoRaHS	64.16
NY	STONY POINT 0.7 NW	CoCoRaHS	63.73
CT	ANSONIA 1 NE	COOP	63.71
NY	CARMEL 4N	COOP	62.93
NY	THORNWOOD 0.7 NW	CoCoRaHS	62.74
NY	SHRUB OAK	COOP	62.55
CT	BETHANY 1.3 SW	CoCoRaHS	62.53
CT	MIDDLEFIELD 0.6 SE	CoCoRaHS	62.12
CT	GRISWOLD 0.9 N	CoCoRaHS	61.66
NY	NEW HEMPSTEAD 0.6 SE	CoCoRaHS	61.56
CT	OAKDALE 2.6 WNW	CoCoRaHS	61.51
CT	HIGGANUM 0.8 NE	CoCoRaHS	61.18
CT	COLCHESTER 0.6 ENE	CoCoRaHS	60.42
CT	EAST LYME 0.5 SW	CoCoRaHS	60.38
CT	WATERBURY 1.3 WNW	CoCoRaHS	60.37
NY	BEACON 4.2 ESE	CoCoRaHS	60.30
NY	SOUTH SALEM 0.8 N	CoCoRaHS	59.90
CT	HIGGANUM 0.7 N	CoCoRaHS	59.87
CT	BROOKFIELD 3.3 SSE	CoCoRaHS	59.59
CT	NEWTOWN 4.6 SE	CoCoRaHS	59.41
CT	WALLINGFORD CENTER 1.9 WNW	CoCoRaHS	59.25
CT	RIDGEFIELD 2.4 NNE	CoCoRaHS	59.19
CT	PROSPECT 0.5 SW	CoCoRaHS	58.90
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	58.87
NY	SOUTH SALEM 2.1 NW	CoCoRaHS	58.80
CT	CROMWELL 0.4 WNW	CoCoRaHS	58.71
NJ	WAYNE TWP 2.3 ESE	CoCoRaHS	58.68
CT	MERIDEN 2.8 WSW	CoCoRaHS	58.49
NJ	RINGWOOD 3.0 SSE	CoCoRaHS	58.47
NY	BRIARCLIFF MANOR 1.3 NE	CoCoRaHS	58.33
CT	NAUGATUCK 1.7 NNE	CoCoRaHS	58.31
NY	LITTLE NECK 0.3 SE	CoCoRaHS	58.27
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	58.25
CT	JEWETT CITY 3.0 ESE	CoCoRaHS	58.24
CT	NEW CANAAN 1.9 ENE	CoCoRaHS	58.19
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	58.04
CT	SHELTON 1.3 W	CoCoRaHS	57.93
NY	PORT JERVIS 2.9 ESE	CoCoRaHS	57.72
NY	ARMONK 0.3 SE	CoCoRaHS	57.71
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	57.68

 

Time Series Summary for Fort Lauderdale Area, FL (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	2023	111.90	13
2	1947	102.36	0
3	2020	90.03	3
4	1994	87.25	1
5	1954	85.65	1

[Tatamy]

Anyone else (NW NJ / NY)have a small coating of snow on the ground this morning?  My low so far has been 33.5.  I looked outside and thought this can’t be real.

[North and West]

Anyone else (NW NJ / NY)have a small coating of snow on the ground this morning?  My low so far has been 33.5.  I looked outside and thought this can’t be real.

It’s not real because there’s a historically simultaneous negative/positive ENSO MJO PNA NAO PV NCAA BCS NLCS occurring all at once, precluding any chance of snow forever and ever.


.

[Allsnow]

Very chilly Friday forecasted currently with temps staying around 34/35 

[ForestHillWx]

Had some crust on the roof tops..possibly from an early morning flizzard.

 

 

[NittanyWx]

16 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the temp anomalies in Canada are a bit overrated IMO. look at Feb 2022. Canada was an icebox, but it didn't matter because the 500mb pattern sucked and the mean storm track was to the west. I would much rather have an above normal Canada if the 500mb pattern leads to coastal storms

 

Sure, in certain instances it doesn't work out with a colder Canadian airmass nearby to tap into for a plethora of reasons.   We have certainly seen cases where promising Canadian airmasses and cold air supply are accompanied by jet suppression. 

 

However, historically, patterns with a normal to cooler than normal Canadian airmass providing available air to tap into are significantly better performing for the local area than alternative when it comes to snowfall.  At least I've certainly found that to be the case in my career.   

 

You're talking about statistical odds.  As I discussed yesterday, no one is saying it cannot snow ever in this pattern, I'm certainly not and I do like the 500mb pattern from a 1000 foot view.  But it's not unreasonable to say it is statistically less likely than the alternative.  

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Very chilly Friday forecasted currently with temps staying around 34/35 

You know it's bad when that's exciting-that we might stay near freezing for a day in the middle of a warm pattern....

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

You know it's bad when that's exciting-that we might stay near freezing for a day in the middle of a warm pattern....

Highs right around normal to a bit below is winterish this December 

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Highs right around normal to a bit below is winterish this December 

That it is.   December has to be +4 or better in NYC right now...

[bluewave]

NYC continues the record breaking streak of 13 years reaching 55 or warmer from 12-17 to 12-25. The previous record was 11 years from 1998 to 2008. This current streak is even more impressive due to combined number of years over 60° with the 2 years over 70°. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Highest Max Temperature Dec 17 to Dec 25	Missing Count
2023-12-25	62	7
2022-12-25	58	0
2021-12-25	60	0
2020-12-25	61	0
2019-12-25	57	0
2018-12-25	61	0
2017-12-25	55	0
2016-12-25	58	0
2015-12-25	72	0
2014-12-25	62	0
2013-12-25	71	0
2012-12-25	56	0
2011-12-25	62	0
2010-12-25	40	0
2009-12-25	39	0
2008-12-25	58	0
2007-12-25	61	0
2006-12-25	59	0
2005-12-25	55	0
2004-12-25	59	0
2003-12-25	56	0
2002-12-25	60	0
2001-12-25	58	0
2000-12-25	62	0
1999-12-25	60	0
1998-12-25	63	0

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

NYC continues the record breaking streak of 13 years reaching 55 or warmer from 12-17 to 12-25. The previous record was 11 years from 1998 to 2008. This current streak is even more impressive due to combined number of years over 60° with the 2 years over 70°. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Highest Max Temperature Dec 17 to Dec 25	Missing Count
2023-12-25	62	7
2022-12-25	58	0
2021-12-25	60	0
2020-12-25	61	0
2019-12-25	57	0
2018-12-25	61	0
2017-12-25	55	0
2016-12-25	58	0
2015-12-25	72	0
2014-12-25	62	0
2013-12-25	71	0
2012-12-25	56	0
2011-12-25	62	0
2010-12-25	40	0
2009-12-25	39	0
2008-12-25	58	0
2007-12-25	61	0
2006-12-25	59	0
2005-12-25	55	0
2004-12-25	59	0
2003-12-25	56	0
2002-12-25	60	0
2001-12-25	58	0
2000-12-25	62	0
1999-12-25	60	0
1998-12-25	63	0

Looks like a cold solstice day for a change this year. 

[Brian5671]

Brutal:  Good track but zero cold air....

[snywx]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Brutal:  Good track but zero cold air....

97-98 all over again 

[North and West]

97-98 all over again 

.

[Volcanic Winter]

6 minutes ago, snywx said:

97-98 all over again 

I’m sure rains to Quebec precedes all our best winter periods! 

 
 

Nah, I’m staying optimistic that January will be more agreeable. But I don’t see anything realistically happening until after NYE and likely then some. 

[Brian5671]

9 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I’m sure rains to Quebec precedes all our best winter periods! 

 
 

Nah, I’m staying optimistic that January will be more agreeable. But I don’t see anything realistically happening until after NYE and likely then some. 

yep there was talk of a big pattern change by 12/20 with a colder storm around 12/27-won't even be close in the end-maybe into January

[MJO812]

[JTA66]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Let me guess, it’s only 10 days away.

[Stormlover74]

12 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Let me guess, it’s only 10 days away.

But in a newsletter

[Dark Star]

15 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

that's not Pacific air. the source region is out of northern Canada

Sadly, this is not true arctic air, as the Pacific jet is pumping warm air all the way into Canada.

[North and West]

I always found these posts vaguely terrifying.


.