December 2023

[Volcanic Winter]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, my goal isn't frozen pipes, its buried mailboxes.

[SACRUS]

 

29 to a high of 57 today.

[suzook]

48 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Very nice 18z gfs run

Not shocking since the MJO plots are becoming favorable .

Nice? For more rain?

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, suzook said:

Nice? For more rain?

Rain then seasonable temps 

[Rjay]

57 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Very nice 18z gfs run

Not shocking since the MJO plots are becoming favorable .

[Rjay]

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Rain then seasonable temps 

Merry Christmas from the 18z gfs

 

[Roger Smith]

 

Before Dec 18 Event ... top 12 one-day and two-day rainfalls at NYC ... temps indicated also

 

Rank ___ 1-day ___ Date _________ (snow if any) _____ max, min temps (F)

_01 ____ 3.09 _____ Dec 13, 1909 (1.0" snow) _____ 53, 33 

_02 ____ 2.97 _____ Dec 13, 1941 (0.3" snow) _____ 46, 27

_03 ____ 2.54 _____ Dec 9, 2014 (1.0" snow 10th) _ 42, 36

_04 ____ 2.52 _____ Dec 29, 1901^_________________ 55, 44

_05 ____ 2.49 _____ Dec 21, 1973 (Tr snow) _______ 57, 25 (Dec 20-21 o/n warm)

_06 ____ 2.41 _____ Dec 11, 1992 __________________ 42,37

_07 ____ 2.36 _____ Dec 26, 1947 (26.4" snow) ___ 31, 25

_08 ____ 2.35 _____ Dec 11, 2008 _________________ 43, 37 

_09 ____ 2.28 _____ Dec 17, 1888 _________________ 55, 50

_10 ____ 2.25 _____ Dec 16, 1974 __________________47, 38

_11 ____ 2.22 _____ Dec 14, 1897 __________________ 53, 45 

_12 ____ 2.19 _____ Dec 9, 1973 ___________________ 55, 37

_13 ____ 2.18 _____ Dec 22, 1983 (0.6" snow) _____ 53, 31

_14 ____ 2.16 _____ Dec 2, 1974 ___________________ 50, 39

_15 ____ 1.98 _____ Dec 7, 1908 ___________________ 57, 38

 

Rank ___2-day ____Dates _______________________ Temps

_01 ____ 3.62 ____ Dec 12-13, 1983 ______________ temps in 53-59 range for rainfall portion

_02 ____ 3.29 ____ Dec 13-14, 1909 (1.0" snow) __ 53, 33 and 53, 40

_03 ____ 3.28 ____ Dec 11-12, 2008 ______________ 43, 37 and 44, 32

_04 ____ 3.03 ____ Dec 13-14, 1941 ______________ 46, 27 and 46, 33

_05 ____ 2.96 ____ Dec 29-30, 1901 ______________ 55, 44 and 45, 34

_06*____ 2.94 ____ Dec 30-31, 1948 (4.0" snow)__57, 52 and 52, 25 

_07 ____ 2.87 ____ Dec 11-12, 1992** (0.4" snow)_42, 37 and 43, 32 

_08*____ 2.73 ____ Dec 2-3, 1986 ________________ 53, 35 and 59, 46

_09 ____ 2.65 ____ Dec 20-21, 1973 (Tr snow) ____54, 25 and 57, 25 (Dec 20-21 o/n warm)

_10 ____ 2.62 ____ Dec 9-10, 2014 (1.0" snow) ___ 42, 36 and 40, 32

_11*____ 2.61 ____ Dec 6-7, 1996 (Tr snow) _______46, 35 and 45, 34

_12 ____ 2.58 ____ Dec 1-2 1974^ _(Tr snow) _____ 42, 33 and 50, 39 

_13 ____ 2.40 ____ Dec 26-27, 1947 (26.4" snow) _31, 25 and 35, 29

_14*____ 2.36 ____ Dec 14-15, 1981 (1.4" snow) __ 37, 29 and 38, 35

_15 ____ 2.33 ____ Dec 17-18, 1888 _______________55, 50 and 52, 29

_16 ____ 2.28 _____ Dec 14-15, 1897 ______________53, 45 and 57, 47

_17*____ 2.25 _____ Dec 9-10, 1878 (0.5" snow) __46, 33 and 60, 46

_18*____ 2.23 _____ Dec 7-8, 1914 (0.5" snow) ___ 36, 32 and 36, 30 (presumably a lot of snow not far away)

_19 ____ 2.21 _____ Dec 22-23, 1983 (0.8" snow) _ 53, 31 and 41, 22 (6, 4 next 2d min)

_20 ____(2.19" Dec 9 1973 no additional amounts Dec 8 or 10)

_21 ____ 2.13 _____ Dec 3-4, 1925 _______________ 49, 39 and 51, 46

_22 ____ 2.08 _____Dec 19-20, 1936 (Tr snow) ___48, 23 and 55, 34

_23 ____2.06 _____ Dec 22-23, 2022 (Tr snow) __47, 35 and 58, 8 (max 15 min 7 on Dec 24)

_24 ____2.03 _____ Dec 6-7, 1908 ________________43, 26 and 57, 38

* (to rank 20, all 2-day contenders except ranks 6, 8, 11, 14, 17 and 18 are also in one-day table. Rank 6 is 1.54" + 1.40" ... Rank 8 is 1.62"+1.11" ... Rank 11 is 1.20"+1.41"  ... Rank 14 is 1.02" + 1.34" ... Rank 17 is 0.63"+1.62" ... Rank 18 is (0.25"+)1.81"+0.43")

note 3rd significant Dec-1983 value of 1.97" for Dec 3-4, 1983. 

** 3.31" total Dec 10-12 1992 ... 2.85 Dec 10-11 1992 2-day is not counted as separate entry but ranks 8, if all cases are considered. Same applies to 2.62" Dec 10-11, 2008. 

2.95" fell Dec 28-30 1942 but Dec 29 value of 0.39" (1.22+0.39+1.34) _ no qualifying 2-d totals. 

___________________________________________

will add 2023 _ Dec 18 and 17-18 values to lists if qualifying. 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

Merry Christmas from the 18z gfs

 

Yep

Pattern is going to get better after 

[North and West]

Merry Christmas from the 18z gfs
 

.

[Volcanic Winter]

At the end of the day, at least we have memes and the friends we’ve weenied along the way. 

[bluewave]

10 hours ago, Rjay said:

Merry Christmas from the 18z gfs

 

With a little luck the next rain event holds off until the 26th or 27th and we have a dry Christmas with good travel conditions like we had Thanksgiving day.

 

[donsutherland1]

Week ahead numbers:

 

 

[Volcanic Winter]

22 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Week ahead numbers:

 

 

Interesting to me how close in temperature the four major cities are. That’s a pretty minor spread (at least it seems to me). 

[Allsnow]

MJO still looks To be on the colder side of things during the first two weeks of January. 
 

 

[SACRUS]

 

39 to 49.  Clouds with rain brewing.   2-3 inches looks likely with some higher amounts. Winds kick up later and overnight.

 

[SACRUS]

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:


EWR: 66 (2000)
NYC: 62 (2000)
LGA:  62 (2021)


Lows:

EWR: 6 (1951)
NYC: 1 (1919)
LGA: 9 (1951)

Historical:

 

1884 - A three week blockade of snow began at Portland, OR. A record December total of 34 inches was received. (David Ludlum)

 

1903: Wilbur and Orville Wright made four brief flights at Kitty Hawk, North Carolina with their first powered aircraft on this day. After having success with their 5-foot biplane kite, the brothers realized the weather conditions in Dayton were not ideal for their flying experiments. They wrote the Weather Bureau in Washington, D.C. requesting a list of suitable places on the east coast where winds were constant. Below is the response the Wright Brothers received from Joseph Dosher, who staffed the Weather Bureau office, wrote in August of 1900 regarding the suitability of Kitty Hawk.

1924 - A severe icestorm struck central Illinois. It coated the ground with nearly two inches of glaze at Springfield. The storm caused 21 million dollars damage along with much hardship. Ice was on the trees until the 4th of January, and electricity was not restored until January 10th. (David Ludlum)

 

1924: From the Monthly Weather Review, "a severe glaze storm occurred in west-central Illinois on December 17 and 18, the area of great destruction embracing a territory about 75 miles in width and 170 miles in length. In the affected area, trees were badly damaged, wires broken, and thousands of electric poles went down. Electric services were paralyzed, and it required weeks to restore operation and months to permanently rebuild the lines.  The street railway company and the Illinois Traction System resumed complete operation 17 days after the storm. Electric light service was completely restored January 10. The ice had practically disappeared from the trees and wires by January 4, but on January 20, there was still considerable ice on the ground.  The Western Union Telegraph Co. lost 8,000 poles and the Illinois Bell Telephone Co. about 23,000. The total damage to wire service in Illinois probably equaled or exceeded $5,000,000." If the loss of business, the damage to trees and possible injury to winter grains, the storm may be considered one of the most disastrous of its kind in the history of Illinois."

1929 - An icestorm in western New York State resulted in much damage and hardship. A Buffalo report stated, "one was kept awake by the breaking limbs, which snapped off with a report much louder than a rifle shot." (17th-18th) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A storm in the southwestern U.S. brought heavy rain and heavy snow to parts of California, Nevada, Arizona, Utah and New Mexico. Charleston NV was blanketed with 12 inches of snow. Lake Havasu City AZ was drenched with 2.26 inches of rain. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Squalls brought locally heavy snow to the southeastern shores of Lake Michigan. Totals in Michigan ranged up to 14 inches at Harvey. Totals in Ohio ranged up to 16 inches at Chardon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Twenty-one cities from Kentucky to Pennsylvania reported record low temperatures for the date, including Columbus OH with a reading of 12 degrees below zero. Heavy snow continued in the Colorado Rockies. Vail received 65 inches of snow between the 14th and the 18th of December. Steamboat Springs was buried under 74 inches, and reported a total of 108 inches of snow between the 10th and the 18th of the month. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2002 - Thunderstorms preceding a strong cold front pushed into the U.S. Mississippi Valley, producing severe weather and tornadoes. Three people were killed in Missouri and Arkansas with more than 40 injuries (Associated Press).

2008 - A winter storm dumped as much as 3.6 inches of snow across Las Vegas, Nevada, prompting the closure of schools and highways. This was the largest December snowfall on record and the heaviest snowfall since January 1979 when a total of 7.5 inches fell (Associated Press).

[bwt3650]

NYC just had the 7th warmest first half of December at 45°. Since the 91-20 climate normals are so warm, it only took a +3.8 departure which doesn’t seem like much. So a continuation of our region experiencing average temperatures which used to be normal for places to our south like Virginia. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Dec 15	Missing Count
1	2015-12-15	52.0	0
2	2001-12-15	51.3	0
3	1998-12-15	50.6	0
4	1953-12-15	47.4	0
5	1951-12-15	46.9	2
6	2021-12-15	45.4	0
7	2023-12-15	45.0	0
-	2012-12-15	45.0	0
-	2011-12-15	45.0	0
-	1991-12-15	45.0	0
8	1999-12-15	44.8	0
9	1923-12-15	44.7	0
10	1891-12-15	44.6	0

7th warmest over half a month is fishing for stats to show warmth. There’s no doubt the past two years have been brutal in nyc metro, but this isn’t the stat to show it.


.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, bwt3650 said:

7th warmest over half a month is fishing for stats to show warmth. There’s no doubt the past two years have been brutal in nyc metro, but this isn’t the stat to show it.


.

The full month ranking in a few weeks won’t be significantly different. We aren’t talking just two years here. There have been 20 to 30 top 10 warmest months to only 1 coldest month since 2015 at our local stations. 

[North and West]

The full month ranking in a few weeks won’t be significantly different. We aren’t talking just two years here. There have been 20 to 30 top 10 warmest months to only 1 coldest month since 2015 at our local stations. 

.

[the_other_guy]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The full month ranking in a few weeks won’t be significantly different. We aren’t talking just two years here. There have been 20 to 30 top 10 warmest months to only 1 coldest month since 2015 at our local stations. 

But after you say it over and over again, whats the point?

Like this is the 700th day without an inch of snow at a Mid Atlantic station. New record. Tomorrow new record too for 701.  

Truth is, not nearly as warm as some want to make it out to be this December. Certainly not a torch. If you end with a +2-3, January could easily be warmer in this new climate. Nothing outstanding about it at all.

[kingbaus]

I really wish we can get a snowstorm like 1/26-27 2011 again short storm but it was so awesome. 2-3 inch hour rates.

[donsutherland1]

Parts of the Southeast saw record daily rainfall. Daily records through 5 pm included:

Charleston: 2.57" (old record: 0.66", 1975)
Charleston (Downtown): 4.36" (old record: 1.18", 1923) ***New December monthly record***
Columbia, SC: 2.20" (old record: 1.16", 1888)
Fayetteville: 2.30" (old record: 1.68", 1970)
Greensboro: 1.64" (old record: 1.52", 1930)
Lumberton, NC: 2.58" (old record: 1.90", 1970)
Myrtle Beach: 3.69" (old record: 0.50", 1994)
Raleigh: 2.05" (old record: 1.35", 1890)
Savannah: 3.16" (old record: 1.96", 1880)
Wilmington, NC: 2.83" (old record: 0.88", 1887)

McClellanville (7 NE), SC was deluged by 12.21" of rain. That broke the all-time daily precipitation record of 10.37" that was set on September 5, 2019. The highest December daily amount for South Carolina in the xmACIS database is 8.10" that fell at Pawleys Island (2.6N) on December 24, 2019.

Heavy rain from that storm has reached Norfolk. It will continue to advance northward this evening.

Overall, the powerful storm will bring a general 2"-4" rainfall to a wide swath of the region by the time the rain ends tomorrow. Locally higher amounts could reach or exceed 5". Strong winds gusting up to 50 mph could create tree and power line damage. Coastal flooding, especially tomorrow, is likely.

Behind the storm, it will turn colder, but not severely cold. Tuesday could see variably cloudy conditions with some passing snow flurries or snow showers, generally well north and west of New York City and Newark.

No Arctic air appears likely through the remainder of December. A transition to a colder pattern could commence during the first week of January.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.9°C for the week centered around December 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.97°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.92°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. El Niño conditions will may strengthen somewhat further this month.  

The SOI was +7.42 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.835 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.4° (3.3° above normal).

 

[donsutherland1]

Daily rainfall at McClellanville (7 NE), SC is now 13.30".

[psv88]

4 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

But after you say it over and over again, whats the point?

Like this is the 700th day without an inch of snow at a Mid Atlantic station. New record. Tomorrow new record too for 701.  

Truth is, not nearly as warm as some want to make it out to be this December. Certainly not a torch. If you end with a +2-3, January could easily be warmer in this new climate. Nothing outstanding about it at all.

Triggered eh

[donsutherland1]

On 12/10/2023 at 8:20 AM, donsutherland1 said:

Some week ahead numbers:

Note: The ECMWF ensembles are very likely exaggerating the probabilities of 1" or above and 2" or above snowfall in Washington, DC, all of which are from the storm that will impact the region today into tomorrow. The low temperature forecast for Washington, DC that is two sigma below the NBE estimate is 34°. Since 1884 when daily snowfall recordkeeping began, Washington, DC has seen only 6 measurable snow events when the December low temperature was 34° or above. The mean snowfall for such events was 0.4" and the median snowfall was 0.3". The highest such snowfall was 1.2" on December 15, 1981. There were two cases among them that followed a high temperature of 50° or above, as will occur this time around: December 24, 1911 (prior high: 52°; snowfall: 0.1") and December 16, 2019 (prior high: 57°; snowfall: 0.1"). Therefore, 0.5" or less seems far more likely than what is implied by the ECMWF ensemble members.

 

Warmth was more widespread and somewhat more intense than what had been shown on the weekly guidance.

[North and West]

Warmth was more widespread and somewhat more intense than what had been shown on the weekly guidance.

Doesn’t it always seem that way?


.

[bluewave]

This month will also feature one of the greatest AO rises on record for December from near -3 to near +3. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, bluewave said:

This month will also feature one of the greatest AO rises on record for December from near -3 to near +3. 

 

I was worried about my forecast for a +AO/NAO December at the outset of the month, but looks like it will be okay.

[SACRUS]

 

3.20 in the bucket and di reach  66 degrees now to 63.