December 2023

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This was a big step towards the euro and amplification. Maybe something to track.

There really isn’t much in the way of cold air near the coast even If a more amped pattern verifies since it’s all Pacific air getting stuck under the block. 
 

[JustinRP37]

This season has honestly not been bad. Many ski areas are opening up this week and many already are open. This is already better than last year. 

[Neblizzard]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There really isn’t much in the way of cold air near the coast even If a more amped pattern verifies since it’s all Pacific air getting stuck under the block. 
 

We may have to wait until late December for better El Niño forcing and favorable MJO progression 

[eduggs]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

There really isn’t much in the way of cold air near the coast even If a more amped pattern verifies since it’s all Pacific air getting stuck under the block. 

 

The 2m temp. anomalies are pretty misleading. They depict cloudiness and time of day more than anything. It's not frigid but there's plenty of cold air during that time period. And if you loop the NA 850mb temperatures, you can see the source region is eastern Canada. The anomalies look like they advect from the Pacific, but anomalies don't advect, heat does... through the movement of air.

[wdrag]

So, apparently first Trace of snow is out of the way per NYC CP CLI.

What's next...Brooklyn will be upbeat.  So far the attached 24 hour snow depth change does not have CMCE/GEFS support for NYC but the EPS is a little bullish in comparison. For now, I am not locking into first measurable early next week but keeping an eye on this for 12/4-5.

[bluewave]

8 hours ago, eduggs said:

The 2m temp. anomalies are pretty misleading. They depict cloudiness and time of day more than anything. It's not frigid but there's plenty of cold air during that time period. And if you loop the NA 850mb temperatures, you can see the source region is eastern Canada. The anomalies look like they advect from the Pacific, but anomalies don't advect, heat does... through the movement of air.

Using the 850 mb temperature anomalies in recent months has been deceptive since the 2m temperatures have been running warmer across the CONUS. On top of that, raw model 2m temp anomalies forecasts have been running cooler than the actual temperatures and the MOS on the colder days. But most weather map providers don’t have MOS corrected 2 m temperatures. There has been very little cold in Eastern Canada this fall.

[bwt3650]

This season has honestly not been bad. Many ski areas are opening up this week and many already are open. This is already better than last year. 

November has been great in northern vermont. 15”
Monday and another 6 plus last night. Huge trail count jumps coming for the weekend and 3 straight days of solid snow making temps. Almost everyone Hunter and north has been open. This November has been nothing like last year.


.

[EastonSN+]

I read in the MA forum that the GOA trough is in a bad position for us. Goes to show that not all ninos are good, and one variable like this can affect our chances. 97/98 is a good example.

Hope it changes. If net we will get em next year.

[EastonSN+]

On a positive note, we are really really early in the snowfall season for the majority of the sub forum. 2000/2001 was a really solid above average snowfall winter, with our first snowfall occurred December 30th. Let's see where we are in a couple weeks when the MJO moves to 8.

[JustinRP37]

40 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

November has been great in northern vermont. 15”
Monday and another 6 plus last night. Huge trail count jumps coming for the weekend and 3 straight days of solid snow making temps. Almost everyone Hunter and north has been open. This November has been nothing like last year.


.

Right? That is what I am saying. Even next week there will be several nights with snow making temps. Even if it doesn’t snow, if it stay cold that is all I want! 

[Brian5671]

11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I read in the MA forum that the GOA trough is in a bad position for us. Goes to show that not all ninos are good, and one variable like this can affect our chances. 97/98 is a good example.

Hope it changes. If net we will get em next year.

Yep the PAC doesn't want to play right now...

[bluewave]

On 11/27/2023 at 11:32 AM, Allsnow said:

The -nao will prevent us from really torching to start the month. It will be above normal but it would have been torching without a -nao 

Yeah, a mild low 50s pattern to start the month with the warmer minimums dominating. While the highs aren’t that much above normal, the fast Pacific Jet is working against the -NAO influence. We may have a shot at 55-60° by mid-December as we lose the -NAO and the Pacific Jet continues on steroids. 

 

 

[brooklynwx99]

28 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I read in the MA forum that the GOA trough is in a bad position for us. Goes to show that not all ninos are good, and one variable like this can affect our chances. 97/98 is a good example.

Hope it changes. If net we will get em next year.

a crappy Pacific is typical in Nino Decembers. the one difference with this one compared to previous strong/super Ninos is the persistent -NAO blocking showing up. this is usually not a feature of events this strong and may signal increased blocking later this winter

[qg_omega]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, a mild low 50s pattern to start the month with the warmer minimums dominating. While the highs aren’t that much above normal, the fast Pacific Jet is working against the -NAO influence. We may have a shot at 55-60° by mid-December as we lose the -NAO and the Pacific Jet continues on steroids. 

 

 

A day near 70 in December fits the persistence pattern we are in 

[Allsnow]

45 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, a mild low 50s pattern to start the month. While it’s not that that much above normal, the fast Pacific Jet is working against the -NAO influence. We may have a shot at 55-60° by mid-December as we lose the -NAO and the Pacific Jet continues on steroids. 

 

 

Yeah, lots of people expecting this big turnaround by mid month with cold but I don’t see it. We loose the nao and the jet ext continues with poor mjo phases. 
 

The mjo doesn’t race through the warm phases and the warm water isn’t where we want it. 

[Brian5671]

16 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah, lots of people expecting this big turnaround by mid month with cold but I don’t see it. We loose the nao and the jet ext continues with poor mjo phases. 
 

The mjo doesn’t race through the warm phases and the warm water isn’t where we want it. 

That's all long range anyway.   At 15-18 days out anything is possible...

[Allsnow]

The sne forum will go south once they realize the storm next week is rain and it’s 55 on Dec 20th 

[Blue Dream]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The sne forum will go south once they realize the storm next week is rain and it’s 55 on Dec 20th 

You should probably change your name to Allrain?

[psv88]

I just don’t understand people who love cold without snow. Why? What’s the purpose? You’ll be inside anyway, what’s the difference if it’s 40 or 20? Unless you go ice fishing or have a pond out back for ice skating it makes no sense. 
 

to me nothing worse than bare ground and freezing cold. If no snow, warm it up so people can enjoy the outdoors 

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The sne forum will go south once they realize the storm next week is rain and it’s 55 on Dec 20th 

Evem Paul Roundy is expecting a big pattern change to cold in the 2nd half . 

Everyone is expecting the MJO to go into the favorable phases.

 

[brooklynwx99]

50 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah, lots of people expecting this big turnaround by mid month with cold but I don’t see it. We loose the nao and the jet ext continues with poor mjo phases. 
 

The mjo doesn’t race through the warm phases and the warm water isn’t where we want it. 

there is no reason to believe that the MJO passing through the MC is anything but temporary... all models have the MJO progressing into more favorable phases by mid-month. the SPV is also likely going to be very weak compared to climatology, which will bolster the case for -NAO periods late in the winter given that we're already seeing blocking

[brooklynwx99]

there is zero evidence that the MJO will sit in unfavorable phases for more than a few days to a week. this is a quick moving wave that will warm us up from Dec 10-20, most likely

[JustinRP37]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

ah yes that type of stuff is going to be deleted here or any subforum

As it should be, but shouldn't need to happen in the first place. I like hot and humid as well, so I guess I don't pay an electric bill. It's weather, we live with it. 

3 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Most this forum believes we are now those climates anyway and we will never see snow, so no need to move apparently.  

It is really bizarre lately how you mention either warm or snow and it triggers people. Like holy crap. A year like last year is almost impossible for us to have two years in a row. Anyone with half a brain can look at statistics and see that, but lately we have some saying we are doomed for a repeat of last year. By looking at stats, I can almost guarantee you we won't be shutout again this year. That doesn't mean it can't happen, but it is incredibly unlikely. The Catskills have already seen multiple snow events and it isn't even December yet. This is a far better start to the season. 

 

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

I just don’t understand people who love cold without snow. Why? What’s the purpose? You’ll be inside anyway, what’s the difference if it’s 40 or 20? Unless you go ice fishing or have a pond out back for ice skating it makes no sense. 
 

to me nothing worse than bare ground and freezing cold. If no snow, warm it up so people can enjoy the outdoors 

I would much rather have the snow then not have the snow, but with cold air at night, resorts can make the snow they need to actually make money. I don't think people realize how thin the margins are for family owned ski areas. Last year was devastating to many families. Another season like that this year would likely spell the end of some smaller family run mountains. While summer businesses were hit hard this year by rainy weekends, the majority at least do not have to spend massive amounts of money just to be able to open like ski areas. Right now it has been cold enough at nights, especially with some elevation, to make a ton of snow. That will hopefully get many mountains open for the vital holiday season, which many missed out on, or had limited terrain open reducing capacity for the past few seasons. Once we get through President's weekend in February, even if we are having a banner year, a lot of casual skiers and boarders begin to move on to spring. 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

there is no reason to believe that the MJO passing through the MC is anything but temporary... all models have the MJO progressing into more favorable phases by mid-month. the SPV is also likely going to be very weak compared to climatology, which will bolster the case for -NAO periods late in the winter given that we're already seeing blocking

Those RMM plots are not great to use with predicting the mjo. Days ago people were posting them showing it going into COD. Now it’s correcting stronger and going around the horn. This is why I said days ago how I was skeptical of the MJO “racing through the warm phases” 

[JustinRP37]

5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

People are incredibly sensitive these days. My god. 10 years ago on these boards a poster would have realized it was a comment made in jest. 

Then all in good fun. Not sensitive, let's have a cold winter and go skiing. If it won't snow, we'll see on man-made ice surrounded by brown.

[Allsnow]

Latest mjo Vp maps show this lingering in p4/5 

[Allsnow]

 

[brooklynwx99]

10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Those RMM plots are not great to use with predicting the mjo. Days ago people were posting them showing it going into COD. Now it’s correcting stronger and going around the horn. This is why I said days ago how I was skeptical of the MJO “racing through the warm phases” 

the VP plots show the same thing. the MJO moves into 7/8 by mid-month on all major ensembles. it's in the warm phases for a week maybe? it's not like it's sitting there for a month, the wave is propagating east

[brooklynwx99]

with this being said, I agree with you in that it's going to get warm for a week to 10 days mid-month. then we should see a shift in the pattern Christmas week

[vegan_edible]

DISCLAIMER: *art school graduate thought incoming*

it seems as though the models are struggling to pick up on a consistent pattern going into mid month, we are still in the long range before we even hit mid december, while i agree the mjo phases are not looking particularly favorable for the 8th-15th period i do not see how there is not a possibility of a pattern change mid month

 

my rant doesnt have much backbone, can anyone confirm or deny my thought process or am i just in denial and have reached my limit of snow withdrawl