EastonSN+ Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 hour ago, North and West said: Regression to the mean hurts. Not even not bothering to count every other variable. . What's funny is CoastalWX in the NE forum would tease with us with this (regression to the mean) following 2018. Not bragging, however living through the 80s and 90s gives me me confidence that this too will end, problem is that snow drought was 30 years between the epic periods of 55 through 69 and 2000 through 2018 lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 20 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Thanks! Surprised the 80s and 90s are missing lol. Don, is there a chart with precipitation anomalies? That would paint a picture of what drove the previous years snow drought. I believe 72 through 74 were very dry? Winters 1972-73 (15.17") and 1973-74 (15.27") were actually much wetter than normal (December-February precipitation). Storm tracks played a major role in that snow drought. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 16, 2023 Author Share Posted December 16, 2023 finally no more Niña BS either… MJO is now moving into typical dateline-western IO phases 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 2 hours ago, North and West said: Regression to the mean hurts. Not even not bothering to count every other variable. . We haven’t really had a mean on Long Island since the early 90s. Just a bunch of all or nothing snowfall seasons. Completely different from the 60s to early 90s with numerous snowfall years near the median. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: I expect that the breakdown in Atlantic blocking is temporary. It should redevelop in January. The broader pattern should also be transitioning during the first week of January. I feel like there will be another thaw in mid January as the energy flux makes its way from the troposphere to the stratosphere...then the most favorable stretch is in February. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 @bluewaveCould you post that graphic listing the warmest December years again? I think I saw you post it yesterday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I feel like there will be another thaw in mid January as the energy flux makes its way from the troposphere to the stratosphere...then the most favorable stretch is in February. I agree with you about the thaw and February. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: @bluewaveCould you post that graphic listing the warmest December years again? I think I saw you post it yesterday... Sure. This is for the entire CONUS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I feel like there will be another thaw in mid January as the energy flux makes its way from the troposphere to the stratosphere...then the most favorable stretch is in February. Another thaw? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 4 minutes ago, Dark Star said: Another thaw? There hasn't been one yet lol 1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: If the CFSv2 is right, patience remains in order. Genuine winter weather for the NYC and Philadelphia areas appears unlikely through most of the month. Periodically, the GFS and even ECMWF have flirted with the idea of some snowfall next week, but have since backed off. CFSv2: Status of Winter: Besides the record low snowcover on our side of the pole, there is also record low arctic sea ice. Bare ground, open waters….it’s going to be a real challenge to get true arctic air here until this changes in a big way@Bluewave 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 11 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Besides the record low snowcover on our side of the pole, there is also record low arctic sea ice. Bare ground, open waters….its going to be a real challenge to get true arctic air here until this changes in a big way@Bluewave I agree regarding genuine Arctic air. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Honest question, are we going to have some shots at snow, or is this going to be like last year? Or is it too early to tell?. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: There hasn't been one yet lol I thought you need a freeze to go into a thaw. Normal -0.5 degrees to +0.5 degrees is not a freeze to come out of to go into a thaw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 4 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: finally no more Niña BS either… MJO is now moving into typical dateline-western IO phases Yes, we are seeing MJO constructive interference with the El Niño now. On the flip side, the associated WWB/DWKW is causing more warming and strengthening of this Nino event. There is still plenty of OHC warmth and subsurface warmth to work with. Both Nino 3.4 and Nino 3 are warming rapidly now. 3.4 is over +2.1C already 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 16, 2023 Author Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Besides the record low snowcover on our side of the pole, there is also record low arctic sea ice. Bare ground, open waters….it’s going to be a real challenge to get true arctic air here until this changes in a big way@Bluewave you don’t really need deep negative anomalies to get a big storm or two. just needs to be cold enough 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Mild afternoon here at KHVN with the high around 57°. I got a chance to walk over to the ASOS. They have it in a great location near the edge of the airport. The airport is built on a scenic marshy area with hills just to the west near New Haven Harbor. It’s in a very low spot so they have had issues with flooding at times. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Fear the wrath of almost-Vince. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 4 hours ago, bluewave said: We haven’t really had a mean on Long Island since the early 90s. Just a bunch of all or nothing snowfall seasons. Completely different from the 60s to early 90s with numerous snowfall years near the median. That is because you destroyed the atmosphere with your Buick in 1987. The all or nothing will gradually become mostly nothing and then nothing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 hour ago, North and West said: Honest question, are we going to have some shots at snow, or is this going to be like last year? Or is it too early to tell? . No one on this forum can answer that. But statistically, you should have a winter of 15-25 inches and be slightly warmer than normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 53 today, beautiful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Beautiful day! We torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 2 hours ago, North and West said: Honest question, are we going to have some shots at snow, or is this going to be like last year? Or is it too early to tell? . Too early to tell. It can snow in bad patterns but it takes a lot of luck. Hopefully the pattern improves. We should have our shots. I mean it is winter lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Euro says Merry Christmas 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Under mainly sunny skies, the temperature again rose into the 50s across the region. The mild weather will continue through the weekend. Meanwhile Florida was picking up moderate to heavy rain. Fort Lauderdale had picked up 1.12" as of 5 pm, which surpassed the daily record of 1.00" from 1958. West Palm Beach had 1.47", which was approaching the daily record of 1.70" that had been set in 1892. Parts of the Southeast could see December record 2-3 day rainfall totals. That storm will bring a general 2"-4" rainfall to a wide swath of the region tomorrow into Monday. Locally higher amounts could reach or exceed 5". Strong winds gusting up to 50 mphs could create tree and power line damage. Coastal flooding, especially on Monday, is likely. No Arctic air appears likely through the remainder of December. A transition to a colder pattern could commence during the first week of January. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.9°C for the week centered around December 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.97°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.92°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. El Niño conditions will may strengthen somewhat further this month. The SOI was +11.99 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.874 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.1° (3.0° above normal). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: Besides the record low snowcover on our side of the pole, there is also record low arctic sea ice. Bare ground, open waters….it’s going to be a real challenge to get true arctic air here until this changes in a big way@Bluewave As impressive as theNorth Pacific Jet extension has been, the North Atlantic Jet will actually be stronger relative to climo for that region than the Pacific Jet in its region.The forecast is for it to max out near 5 sigma next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 4 hours ago, Dark Star said: Another thaw? Another pattern relaxation. You know what I mean, semantical assassin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 5 hours ago, Allsnow said: Beautiful day! We torch Toally....got another rake refresh in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: you don’t really need deep negative anomalies to get a big storm or two. just needs to be cold enough Yea, my goal isn't frozen pipes, its buried mailboxes. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Very nice 18z gfs run Not shocking since the MJO plots are becoming favorable . 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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