EastonSN+ Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: And on the flip side and equally as likely - highs can be much colder than that or even below average if we are on the north or west side of a low pressure. Still 9-10 days out plenty of time for storm tracks to change. Pretty much have to get one of these clippers to track south of us next Sunday or Monday for a cold Christmas and potentially one with flakes in the air.. Welcome to the forum neighbor!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 10 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: And on the flip side and equally as likely - highs can be much colder than that or even below average if we are on the north or west side of a low pressure. Still 9-10 days out plenty of time for storm tracks to change. Pretty much have to get one of these clippers to track south of us next Sunday or Monday for a cold Christmas and potentially one with flakes in the air.. The end of the month looks promising . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 Very promising 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 34 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: Certainly frustrating that highs near 50 around Christmas needs to be qualified with a statement that it's "nothing too extreme compared to some recent years"! Honestly I just want decent weather (if it's not going to snow) nothing worse than an xmas rainstorm. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 13 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The end of the month looks promising . Gfs showing something for the end of the month, a bit odd looking though. Will it be cold enough though? I think it could be a i95west snow event. Plenty of time for changes though. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 1 hour ago, bluewave said: But the recent storm track correction for systems like this weekend was to the west and not south. The air mass for a few days after this strong system is only a little below normal due to the mostly Pacific origin. So a weak clipper may end up further NW or sheared out due to the fast flow and not going to the south. Even if it did, a weak system will only pull in more mild Pacific air with less cooling effect than the storm early next week. New run trend was for warmer storm track Old run colder track to our south Can't attach images, however EPS has several low pressures south and east of us on Christmas Eve, in this scenario we'd get a northwest flow and much colder temperatures, that's all I'm saying. Temperatures on Christmas day are 100% dependent on the flow and what side we are on of any approaching or departing storm.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 Latest OLR maps have the standing wave in p7 dissipating with most the convection in p8/1. If true, would think their is a cold risk in the east first two weeks of January 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Latest OLR maps have the standing wave in p7 dissipating with most the convection in p8/1. If true, would think their is a cold risk in the east first two weeks of January Can you help me understand the “standing wave” in the context of the MJO? Does that simply mean a slowdown with forcing lingering in a specific phase from some sort of feedback loop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: Very promising Unfortunately that wave may complete its cycle before we really see things reshuffle enough to get legit cold air in place and the pattern setup as we want. Could be into the COD or even weakly into 3-4 by the time we reach 1/2-1/5 which is when I think we might have the Pac/Canada setup well. It could be partially why though we saw things turn better overall in the post 12/20 period after ensembles abandoned ship for 2-3 days last week, 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 Underrated fact, the last few days the GFS is kind of getting owned by the CMC/Euro/ICON beyond 72 hours...we have legit not seen that since maybe the 2017-2018 winter on any consistent basis...probably something to do with more southern stream influence 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: Latest OLR maps have the standing wave in p7 dissipating with most the convection in p8/1. If true, would think their is a cold risk in the east first two weeks of January Followed by another mild week or two as the energy flux rises from the trop to the strat....then its pants off for Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 Funny how everytime @MJO812posts, a weenie gets its buns lol...usually @snowman19 doing the honors. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Followed by another mild week or two as the energy flux rises from the trop to the strat....then its pants off for Feb. Just 45 short days away.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Funny how everytime @MJO812posts, a weenie gets its buns lol...usually @snowman19 doing the honors. It's like the cold miser vs the heat miser 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 32 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Underrated fact, the last few days the GFS is kind of getting owned by the CMC/Euro/ICON beyond 72 hours...we have legit not seen that since maybe the 2017-2018 winter on any consistent basis...probably something to do with more southern stream influence That winter actually had a ton of northern stream, at least in March.....I had my snowiest March on record after that Feb SSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 Just now, Brian5671 said: It's like the cold miser vs the heat miser Poor guy could post "the world is round and the sun is bright" and ruthless snowman would still light 'em up. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 TBF people light Snowman up with weenie’s constantly too, many cases for posting his genuine thoughts. But because it’s ‘negative’ it gets seen as trolling. I don’t think that’s fair, personally. Look how you say things matters still in written format, and sometimes people come off a certain way when they post that goes beyond giving objective opinions / forecasts. But I do think some have been largely doing better with that. I will always give props to well reasoned posts, especially those with effort behind them / data etc. And that holds even if it’s not what I, personally as a ride or die cold & snow weenie, want to hear. I try to separate emotion from this, because I’m here to learn first and foremost. All just my thoughts / weighing in. I’m not the arbiter of what’s right and wrong for the forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 Beautiful today. 55 degrees here. Great for late season outdoor activities. It feels more like November bow hunting than December gun hunting weather ..... love it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 15, 2023 Author Share Posted December 15, 2023 large signal showing up for Christmas week… cold air will be an issue but worth tracking with a SS vort this potent. the Canadian ridge can also force transient HP downstream 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 The lack of any decent cold air source(outside of a random day or two) going back to last winter is amazing.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 Steve D and Earthlight arguing on twitter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: The lack of any decent cold air source(outside of a random day or two) going back to last winter is amazing.... It’s disconcerting, 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 1 minute ago, Volcanic Winter said: It’s disconcerting, 100%. Even this weekend's storm track up to the benchmark would be mostly rain outside of the higher elevations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Steve D and Earthlight arguing on twitter Over the pacific jet extension… exciting stuff… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 I’ve got to tell you it’s beautiful outside after a cold week. This reminds me of living in Daytona Beach in January. A nice way to do winter… a few cold days and then a warm-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 The lack of any decent cold air source(outside of a random day or two) going back to last winter is amazing....This is a HUGE problem for cold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: This is a HUGE problem for cold That, downsloping winds over the Rockies and warm great lakes-any cold will modify at least in the short term (next couple weeks) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 5 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: I’ve got to tell you it’s beautiful outside after a cold week. This reminds me of living in Daytona Beach in January. A nice way to do winter… a few cold days and then a warm-up. 54 here-feels great outside on my lunch break 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 21 minutes ago, snowman19 said: This is a HUGE problem for cold The most shocking thing is the low snow pack in the mountains out west. Ninos usually bring prolific snows to the California mountains especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 28 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Over the pacific jet extension… exciting stuff… It's a torch...it's not a torch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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