December 2023

[MJO812]

29 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

28F this morning.

Dont look now, but…looks like that storm really pulls in a lot of cool air behind it. haha 

Yep

I'm not expecting the pattern to change until January .

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's not a torch 

Who ever used the word torch? It’s not even a scientific term. Even when describing the warm up ahead of the cutter near 60° early next week I don’t use that term. 

[jm1220]

Pretty cold morning. Down to 24. 

[Brian5671]

22 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's not a torch 

Who cares it's still too warm for any frozen for the most part (verbatim)

[EastonSN+]

Still watching the GOA trough, as this is still the key feature in "flipping" to a snowier pattern.

I did not account for the strength of this El nino (and anomaly position), which I should have since we just lived through 2015 lol. That being said, if one wants hope for snow visit the MA forum where there is positive changes in the LR modeling. 

Also, if the El Nino is rapidly weakening we may be able to extend the better looking pattern, rather than the shorter 1 month looks of 2016 and 1983. Although 97/98 had numerous offshore benchmark storm tracks with nothing but rain to show for it, that El nino was stronger so likely to avoid that outcome (again the GOA trough has to migrate west). Like the last two Decembers have shown (as well as 97/98), blocking cannot win alone (never could). 

Weeklies look good FWIW.

[North and West]

Who ever used the word torch? It’s not even a scientific term. Even when describing the warm up ahead of the cutter near 60° early next week I don’t use that term. 

Torch is one of those terms that’s overused (here at least) today; it’s kind of like how people now describe many jobs and relationships nowadays as “toxic.” When everything is toxic (or a torch), nothing is; it numbs the listener or reader to conditions where it’s actually toxic (or uncomfortably warm).

Highs in the 40s (imo), is not a torch, but it’s been taken to the glue factory.


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[EastonSN+]

Better....

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, North and West said:

Torch is one of those terms that’s overused (here at least) today; it’s kind of like how people now describe many jobs and relationships nowadays as “toxic.” When everything is toxic (or a torch), nothing is; it numbs the listener or reader to conditions where it’s actually toxic (or uncomfortably warm).

Highs in the 40s (imo), is not a torch, but it’s been taken to the glue factory.


.

We can still have highs in the 40s from 12-26 to 12-31 and have above average temperatures since the NYC average split is 41/31. I have not heard anyone on twitter using the term torch to describe our late month pattern here. But maybe the term was used for the Upper Midwest to Canada. 

[NittanyWx]

7 hours ago, ForestHillWx said:

Without needing to state the obvious, I think @wishcast_hateris commenting as to the extent of AGW on the ever evolving climate, as the responsive posts correctly point out. 

Candidly when discussing the impacts of “climate change” on our weather patterns there is a built-in narrative that the climate is changing due to human activity, and not in response to natural variability. 
 

And now, back to wishcasting for snow…
 

 

There is an inherent disbelief in his post that a clear climatic trend is occurring because we somehow don't know what happened more than 150 years ago.

 

It was a silly statement and wrong. 

[North and West]

We can still have highs in the 40s from 12-26 to 12-31 and have above average temperatures since the NYC average split is 41/31. I have not heard anyone on twitter using the term torch to describe our late month pattern here. But maybe the term was used for the Upper Midwest to Canada. 

I’m not saying it’s not above average; I’m just talking about how it’s communicated here. Rather than “seasonably mild,” which is boring and tranquil, “torch” conveys a hellscape.


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[North and West]

There is an inherent disbelief in his post that a clear climatic trend is occurring because we somehow don't know what happened more than 150 years ago.
 
It was a silly statement and wrong. 

I’ve been saying this for years: it’s happening, it’s silly to deny it, but it’s also a trade-off for an advancing civilization. The warming atmosphere is occurring because we’re living better and longer, and having instantaneous and near-instantaneous communication and transportation devices.

How much would you give up for a more inconvenient and arguably less healthy life (e.g., mining and smelting activities help give us trains and cars and MRIs and medicines) that comes from carbon-intensive activities?

I do think we’re advancing to where technology cleans excess carbon from the atmosphere and to where we have better fuels (I work in aerospace and space engineering, and there are advanced jet fuels being tested now, both for security and environmental reasons), but we’re not there just yet.

Thanks for coming to my TED talk.


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[the_other_guy]

54 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Who ever used the word torch? It’s not even a scientific term. Even when describing the warm up ahead of the cutter near 60° early next week I don’t use that term. 

A LOT of people. Lets cut the BS Bluewave. I even saw Merry Torchmas.

 

We could debate a lot of things, let’s at least stay in reality here

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, bluewave said:

From all the historical accounts that I have read, the winter of 1779-1780 was probably the coldest on record going back to the colonial times. If this Philly account of the temperature only getting above freezing once in January 1780 is close, then the monthly average may have only been around 15°. The coldest month on record since 1874 was January 1977 at 20.0°.

 

https://www.google.com/books/edition/The_Philadelphia_Area_Weather_Book/mon_ivVXUY4C?hl=en&gbpv=1&dq=january+1780+cold+philadelphia+pa&pg=PA76&printsec=frontcover

 

Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	1977	20.0	0
2	1893	24.0	0
3	1918	24.1	0
4	1970	24.5	0
5	1982	24.7	0

"Snow on the level increased to the height of thy knickers"....

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

A LOT of people. Lets cut the BS Bluewave. I even saw Merry Torchmas.

 

We could debate a lot of things, let’s at least stay in reality here

It's my avatar pic.  LOL.    To me torch is +10 or more on the day....I've also seen the term "furnace" in the SNE forum

[suzook]

I have seen torch used numerous times here. Its being used as an exaggeration, like everything these days online. Its quite annoying. 

[North and West]

It's my avatar pic.  LOL.    To me torch is +10 or more on the day....I've also seen the term "furnace" in the SNE forum

I prefer inhospitable hellscape.


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[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

A LOT of people. Lets cut the BS Bluewave. I even saw Merry Torchmas.

 

We could debate a lot of things, let’s at least stay in reality here

Who on this forum specifically called for a Merry Torchmas for NYC Metro?  I know for sure that I didn’t. 

[Volcanic Winter]

4 minutes ago, North and West said:

I prefer inhospitable hellscape.


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I always liked ‘infernal hellscape,’ but then I remembered that’s my nickname for Florida. 

[rclab]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Who ever used the word torch? It’s not even a scientific term. Even when describing the warm up ahead of the cutter near 60° early next week I don’t use that term. 

 

19 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

A LOT of people. Lets cut the BS Bluewave. I even saw Merry Torchmas.

 

We could debate a lot of things, let’s at least stay in reality here

 

7 minutes ago, suzook said:

I have seen torch used numerous times here. Its being used as an exaggeration, like everything these days online. Its quite annoying. 

 

6 minutes ago, North and West said:

I prefer inhospitable hellscape.


.

 

16 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

It's my avatar pic.  LOL.    To me torch is +10 or more on the day....I've also seen the term "furnace" in the SNE forum

 

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Who on this forum specifically called for a Merry Torchmas for NYC Metro?  I know for sure that I didn’t. 

 

2 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I always liked ‘infernal hellscape,’ but then I remembered that’s my nickname for Florida. 

Good morning everyone. I prefer the best of both worlds. Stay well all, as always ….

 

[the_other_guy]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Who on this forum specifically called for a Merry Torchmas for NYC Metro?  I know for sure that I didn’t. 

You didnt!

[EastonSN+]

23 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

It's my avatar pic.  LOL.    To me torch is +10 or more on the day....I've also seen the term "furnace" in the SNE forum

[psv88]

25 this morning. 
 

keep them dead!

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

You didnt!

I never even used the term torch in December 2015. Mainly since I am respectful of others in here who are triggered by that term. 

[Eduardo]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I never even used the term torch in December 2015. Mainly since I am respectful of others in here who are triggered by that term. 

I mean, if ever there was a time when the term was appropriate…..

Did JB coin that term, btw?

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

I mean, if ever there was a time when the term was appropriate…..

Did JB coin that term, btw?

Maybe he did. I think he popularized delayed but not denied also. The main problem with terms like torch is that there is no precise definition if you are doing a forecast. But yeah, December 2015 was ridiculous. I was mostly using terms like historic to really try and do justice to what happened that month. 

[Volcanic Winter]

Starting to look at the models more now, this is around the time my watch begins. Though as mentioned my emotional investment for the time being is staying low. 

I do like the continued activity though, I think that’s a good sign. Lots of juiced systems, I would think it’d be hard not to luck into something eventually even lacking a wholesale major pattern improvement. Obviously we need a better temp profile and at least some improvements, but I think that will happen in Jan even if only marginally enough to get us a trackable event. 

Certainly not disheartened, we’ll get there one way or another. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

I’m about 2 miles NW of the Central Park observation spot. Cpk had an official low of 33 and the ground is frozen here at 120th and Broadway on campus. Pretty amazing how tight the urban heat island is. Just a little bit more open space up here on the far uws was enough to get to freezing. NYC has got to be one of the most unique weather environments on the planet. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, North and West said:

I’m not saying it’s not above average; I’m just talking about how it’s communicated here. Rather than “seasonably mild,” which is boring and tranquil, “torch” conveys a hellscape.


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I understand what you are saying. Terms like torch and deep freeze can be too subjective to convey specifics in a forecast. I try to use more precise terms.

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’m about 2 miles NW of the Central Park observation spot. Cpk had an official low of 33 and the ground is frozen here at 120th and Broadway on campus. Pretty amazing how tight the urban heat island is. Just a little bit more open space up here on the far uws was enough to get to freezing. NYC has got to be one of the most unique weather environments on the planet. 

Queens near Douglaston/Bayside is also a lot colder pretty often vs the more built up areas and averages more snow. If there’s any place in the city I’d want to live for a slightly better shot at more wintry precip it’d be there, or northern Bronx.

[MJO812]

Interesting