December 2023

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, Neblizzard said:

Watch what you say on here this year.  Lot of sensitive warminstas. 

 

Watch what you post on here . They’ll say it’s over before it’s even begun. 

It's starting earlier than expected.

[cleetussnow]

This looks like shit:  

[MANDA]

3 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

This looks like shit:  

500 MB HTS in the low 560's is something most of us don't want on Christmas morning.  The 546 at KINL not much better! 

[psv88]

27 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I was joking unlike some people in this thread 

You most definitely were not joking but sure 

[jm1220]

51 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

that's one heck of a storm-how often do you see a 984 monster over S Virginia?

I think our possible way out of another deluge is it bombs and occludes in the South early which removes much of the large scale lift and WAA when it gets here. But if it’s being lifted north and phasing later, it’ll still be strengthening as it arrives. Not good when even the “dry” models have 2-3” still. Tons of moisture available since this is a southern stream Nino fueled storm. 

[TriPol]

I don’t care about the warm weather right now. There are… 1… no 2…. hurricane strength storms about to hit us? Up to 10” of rain in a week from them both? That’s some MAJOR flooding!

[bluewave]

27 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I don’t care about the warm weather right now. There are… 1… no 2…. hurricane strength storms about to hit us? Up to 10” of rain in a week from them both? That’s some MAJOR flooding!

These extreme rainfall events have become the new normal for us since 2003. Many years in NYC have finished above 50.00”. Plus if this comes far enough west for high winds, this has been a repeating theme since 2010.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	1983	80.56	Rain gauge malfunction so total likely overdone
2	2011	72.81	0
3	1972	67.03	0
4	2018	65.55	0
5	1989	65.11	0
6	2007	61.67	0
7	1975	61.21	0
8	1990	60.92	0
9	2006	59.89	0
10	2021	59.73	0
11	2003	58.42	0
12	1903	58.32	0
13	1889	58.18	0
14	1913	58.00	0
15	1973	57.23	0
16	1984	57.03	0
17	1971	56.77	0
18	1996	56.19	0
19	1927	56.06	0
20	2005	55.97	0
21	2023	55.21	19
22	1977	54.73	0
23	2014	53.79	0
24	2009	53.62	0
25	2008	53.61	0
26	1933	53.53	0
27	1888	53.32	0
28	1919	53.29	0
29	1920	53.20	0
30	2019	53.03	0
31	1937	52.97	0
32	1902	52.77	0
33	1884	52.25	0
34	1979	52.13	0
35	2004	51.93	0
36	1871	51.38	0

[suzook]

36 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I don’t care about the warm weather right now. There are… 1… no 2…. hurricane strength storms about to hit us? Up to 10” of rain in a week from them both? That’s some MAJOR flooding!

But if it was cold enough, it could have been 130 inches. Lol

[nycwinter]

so warm that i do not even have to zipper my coat..

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, cleetussnow said:

This looks like shit:  

 

The airmass is gonna be puke as a whole, at least at 276.  But as you saw if you follow the Op run to 384 it gets colder as you more or less develop a -NAO/AO by that time

[donsutherland1]

Cool weather will continue through tomorrow. Afterward, temperatures will grow milder to end the week. The mild weather will continue through the weekend. A significant rainstorm followed by a continuation of above normal temperatures is likely Sunday evening into Monday. A general 1"-3" of rain is possible.

No Arctic air appears likely through the remainder of December. If anything, the warm risks for the closing 7-10 days of the month have increased. A transition to a colder pattern could commence during the first week of January.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.9°C for the week centered around December 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.97°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.92°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. El Niño conditions will may strengthen somewhat further this month.  

The SOI was +6.69 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.180 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January.

On December 11 the MJO was not available. The December 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.890 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 41.6° (2.5° above normal).

 

[North and West]

so warm that i do not even have to zipper my coat..

.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Pretty hard core snow showers to our north currently. They should at least survive into the northern suburbs.

[NittanyWx]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

These extreme rainfall events have become the new normal for us since 2003. Many years in NYC have finished above 50.00”. Plus if this comes far enough west for high winds, this has been a repeating theme since 2010.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	1983	80.56	Rain gauge malfunction so total likely overdone
2	2011	72.81	0
3	1972	67.03	0
4	2018	65.55	0
5	1989	65.11	0
6	2007	61.67	0
7	1975	61.21	0
8	1990	60.92	0
9	2006	59.89	0
10	2021	59.73	0
11	2003	58.42	0
12	1903	58.32	0
13	1889	58.18	0
14	1913	58.00	0
15	1973	57.23	0
16	1984	57.03	0
17	1971	56.77	0
18	1996	56.19	0
19	1927	56.06	0
20	2005	55.97	0
21	2023	55.21	19
22	1977	54.73	0
23	2014	53.79	0
24	2009	53.62	0
25	2008	53.61	0
26	1933	53.53	0
27	1888	53.32	0
28	1919	53.29	0
29	1920	53.20	0
30	2019	53.03	0
31	1937	52.97	0
32	1902	52.77	0
33	1884	52.25	0
34	1979	52.13	0
35	2004	51.93	0
36	1871	51.38	0

It's not unique to NY either.  Single day rainfall records are being broken and an increasing rate over the past 20 years.  It's one of the cleaner climate change signals we have and passes the scientific sniff test.

[wishcast_hater]

It's not unique to NY either.  Single day rainfall records are being broken and an increasing rate over the past 20 years.  It's one of the cleaner climate change signals we have and passes the scientific sniff test.

I will never understand how we can declare definitive climate change based on 150 years of records when we have no idea of what took place beforehand.


.

[ForestHillWx]

36 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

I will never understand how we can declare definitive climate change based on 150 years of records when we have no idea of what took place beforehand.


.

Careful…you’re treading on sacred ground around these parts. 

[Roger Smith]

There are some records in N America going back into the 18th century, if you want to see some detailed examples have a look in climate change forum for a thread on Toronto and NYC climate stats, Toronto goes back to 1840 and I found a station at Providence RI going back to 1831. A summary of that location's daily records 1831-60 gives a basic overview that supports the idea parts of 19th century could have been slightly warmer (than 1871-1900) but not as warm as last 30-40 yrs. 

UK "Central England Temperature" series goes further back, a period between 1710 and 1739 is almost as warm as mid-20th century and about 0.5 C cooler than more recent decades. The interval from 1659 to 1709 was colder than any later intervals, 1684 to 1709 in particular very cold (this is the later part of the maunder minimum). 

Before that we only have tree ring records and such, together with anecdotal reports about extremes. Some believe 1540 could have been a summer like 2022 in Europe for drought and extreme heat. It was recorded that the Rhine almost dried up and heat was described as severe leading to deaths. Perhaps of significance, this was a very active solar period between two lower intervals, the Sporer minimum of the 15th century, and the maunder minimum. 

There is also the well known postulate that severe drought caused major cultural shifts in the southwestern U.S., such as the migration of the formerly dominant Anasazi people in the "four corners" region. This is dated to 1150-1200 A.D.

Climate change is real but it isn't new. A region between Chad and Libya used to have a lush savanna climate and a lake fed a now-extinct river, the "Yellow Nile" that flowed east to join the Nile near where the other two sources of the Nile ("white" and "blue" Niles) now combine in Sudan. That river stopped flowing about six thousand years ago and people in that region had to migrate to find reliable water sources. But there are small lakes left and even a remnant population of wildlife including a few crocs and hippos, in a desert oasis setting now. That climate change was related to the final drying up and disappearance of Lake Lahontan in the great basin region. All that's left of formerly gigantic Lake Lahontan are a half dozen salt lakes and plenty of other seasonal dry lakes scattered across Nevada and Utah. As recently as 17,000 years ago, when the Laurentide glaciers were still near their full extent, the climate of Nevada was about like south-central B.C. nowadays, with reliable rainfall and probably a much colder winter. 

[bluewave]

30 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

There are some records in N America going back into the 18th century,

From all the historical accounts that I have read, the winter of 1779-1780 was probably the coldest on record going back to the colonial times. If this Philly account of the temperature only getting above freezing once in January 1780 is close, then the monthly average may have only been around 15°. The coldest month on record since 1874 was January 1977 at 20.0°.

 

https://www.google.com/books/edition/The_Philadelphia_Area_Weather_Book/mon_ivVXUY4C?hl=en&gbpv=1&dq=january+1780+cold+philadelphia+pa&pg=PA76&printsec=frontcover

 

Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	1977	20.0	0
2	1893	24.0	0
3	1918	24.1	0
4	1970	24.5	0
5	1982	24.7	0

[Volcanic Winter]

40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

From all the historical accounts that I have read, the winter of 1779-1780 was probably the coldest on record going back to the colonial times. If this Philly account of the temperature only getting above freezing once in January 1780 is close, then the monthly average may have only been around 15°. The coldest month on record since 1874 was January 1977 at 20.0°.

 

https://www.google.com/books/edition/The_Philadelphia_Area_Weather_Book/mon_ivVXUY4C?hl=en&gbpv=1&dq=january+1780+cold+philadelphia+pa&pg=PA76&printsec=frontcover

 

Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	1977	20.0	0
2	1893	24.0	0
3	1918	24.1	0
4	1970	24.5	0
5	1982	24.7	0

Simply unfathomable. I appreciate this post very much Bluewave, I have an intense fascination with the LIA both from a volcanism perspective and just the general extreme climo differences to now. 

I was born simply too late to experience the milder facsimiles of the harshest LIA winter months in the 70’s and 80’s. 

—

I generally believe the LIA was caused by a multitude of factors instead of any one singular thing, but I found a snippet of a paper suggesting volcanism as the principal driver, kicked off the by the enormous Samalas / Rinjani eruption of the 13th century (larger than Tambora, even greater climate impact). 
 

https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPP43D..05Z/abstract

Seems to suggest the ability for the large scale volcanism of the LIA to tip a susceptible AMO into a prolonged cold configuration. It’s interesting because traditionally ‘volcanic winters’ are short lived phenomena.

[Roger Smith]

Yes, it was also a very cold winter in Britain, after a very warm year (1779) that provides warmest Feb even now after 2.5 centuries. 

Sure you also know about extreme snowfalls in Feb-mar 1717. 

 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, wishcast_hater said:

I will never understand how we can declare definitive climate change based on 150 years of records when we have no idea of what took place beforehand.


.

As the air gets warmer it holds more moisture=more extreme rain events. We also have methods to evaluate ice cores and other means to evaluate the climate from much longer ago. 

[STORMANLI]

4 hours ago, North and West said:

 

.

And Asia's

The Heat Goes On

Sorry, no video link.

[donsutherland1]

24 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

As the air gets warmer it holds more moisture=more extreme rain events. We also have methods to evaluate ice cores and other means to evaluate the climate from much longer ago. 

A good summary on paleoclimate proxies can be found here:

https://www.usgs.gov/programs/climate-research-and-development-program/science/paleoclimate-proxies#overview

[NittanyWx]

4 hours ago, wishcast_hater said:

I will never understand how we can declare definitive climate change based on 150 years of records when we have no idea of what took place beforehand.


.

Lol what?

 

I gotta ask, who told you we have 'no idea' of what happened more than 150 years ago?

 

 

[ForestHillWx]

Without needing to state the obvious, I think @wishcast_hateris commenting as to the extent of AGW on the ever evolving climate, as the responsive posts correctly point out. 

Candidly when discussing the impacts of “climate change” on our weather patterns there is a built-in narrative that the climate is changing due to human activity, and not in response to natural variability. 
 

And now, back to wishcasting for snow…
 

 

[Roger Smith]

If for any reason it cooled down on an epic scale (volcanic dust, solar downturns, unknown cause and effect) we would begin to be glad for AGW signal, it could save our society considerable stress. But nobody is predicting it would work out so. It would probably rain even greater values, be cloudy all day, and around 1961-90 averages. Sort of like a worst case scenario but not too cold to survive. 

[the_other_guy]

28F this morning.

Dont look now, but…looks like that storm really pulls in a lot of cool air behind it. haha 

[bluewave]

27 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

28F this morning.

Dont look now, but…looks like that storm really pulls in a lot of cool air behind it. haha 

That isn’t a lot of cold air by late December standards. We go from 60° to -2 to -4 for a couple of days before we warm up back above normal again. The 26th to 31st may be the warmer minimums driving the +departures with the fast flow and clouds.

 

 

[qg_omega]

17 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

28F this morning.

Dont look now, but…looks like that storm really pulls in a lot of cool air behind it. haha 

one to two days of normal and right back to well above

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That isn’t a lot of cold air by late December standards. We go from 60° to -2 to -4 for a couple of days before we warm up back above normal again. The 26th to 31st may be the warmer minimums driving the +departures with the fast flow and clouds.

 

 

It's not a torch