suzook Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 Are we seriously taking the cmc seriously??? More like wishful thinking. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 1 minute ago, suzook said: Are we seriously taking the cmc seriously??? More like wishful thinking. Seriously the gfs is cold next weekend as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Seriously the gfs is cold next weekend as well def seeing some progress amongst the op models on wavebreaking and seeing some more seasonable temps during the holiday week. brooklynwx99 has been talking about this a lot today and i appreciate his input on things. whether it pans out or not is still highly uncertain due to how much these models flop but it is far more encouraging and fun to look at than what the past 3 days has been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 16 minutes ago, suzook said: Are we seriously taking the cmc seriously??? More like wishful thinking. i will say that the canadian models performed exceptionally well last winter, especially the RGEM. i wouldn't dismiss those so easily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 1 hour ago, vegan_edible said: i will say that the canadian models performed exceptionally well last winter, especially the RGEM. i wouldn't dismiss those so easily The main reason to be skeptical the OP CMC single digits just west of NYC at 10 days is that it’s a big cold outlier among it’s ensembles along with the GEFS and GEPS. This is why it’s much better to use ensemble means beyond 5 days. The ensembles are pretty good at this range but their have been numerous runs way too cold from the OP at days 7-10. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 26 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: We are already seeing can kicking. It seems like once that starts, it persists. We are already talking a month push back on any favorable pattern. Yeah, then it's Spring, or supposed to be, when the PV splits. No we aren't 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 Just now, bluewave said: The main reason to be skeptical the OP CMC at 10 days is that it’s a big cold outlier among its own ensembles. This is why it’s much better to use ensemble means beyond 5 days. Pattern looks alot better near the holidays once again. Hope it continues. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: The main reason to be skeptical the OP CMC at 10 days is that it’s a big cold outlier among its own ensembles. This is why it’s much better to use ensemble means beyond 5 days. The ensembles are pretty good at this range but their have been numerous runs way too cold from the OP at days 7-10. agreed 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Pattern looks alot better near the holidays once again. Hope it continues. It’s the same pattern in the ensemble means. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Pattern looks alot better near the holidays once again. Hope it continues. How? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 15 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Pattern looks alot better near the holidays once again. Hope it continues. It’s the same pattern #StoplisteningtoJoeBastardi 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: No we aren't 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 51 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Well if that happens then my February idea I discussed with you back in early November in the ENSO thread is dead wrong. As we showed with 97-98 MJO phase 8 even at the end of December and January could make no difference with a very strong El Niño in place ——-raging jet promotion I'm pretty confident that won't be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: It then turned noticeably warmer toward mid-month with the temperature peaking at 64° on January 14th in NYC. Boston had two 66° highs. Philadelphia and Washington, DC reached 70°. Very noteworthy mid Jan warm shot JAN 12-20, 1995, PHL averaged +18 over the 9 days vs. the current averages. Would have been over a +20 torch against the normal at that time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 I’m pretty confident that we’ll be surprised one or two more times this season, at least. Whether that works in our favor or against us is yet to be determined. Referring to the models undercooking the magnitude of an upcoming pattern feature, hopefully that ends up being blocking this time while we have at least a marginally improved Pac. For now, just a hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 This is weird. Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1045 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2023 ANZ450-141545- Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm- 1045 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Atlantic coastal waters adjacent to Monmouth County out 20 nm. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Gale-force winds and/or very rough seas are forecast on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds and/or dangerously high seas are expected on Monday. Storm-force winds and/or very high seas are expected on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 40 minutes ago, MJO812 said: No we aren't You kicked the can in the Ne forum!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 6 minutes ago, psv88 said: You kicked the can in the Ne forum!!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 49 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Pattern looks alot better for Caribou Maine near the holidays once again. Hope it continues. FIXED 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX-PA Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 Euro does not look like a torch Christmas week here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 As of yesterday, you would have thought winter was over. Today, we get a cold run from the cmc, and slightly colder run from gfs, and winter is back. Its hilarious. Give me 3 days of solid runs showing cold, and I will buy it. I seriously don't think we see real cold/snow until Jan. I'm ok with that, as Jan and Feb, hell even March is when we get snow on LI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, WX-PA said: Euro does not look like a torch Christmas week here. It’s only goes out to 12/22 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 12z Euro correcting warmer for our annual warm up around the solstice. New run Old run 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 that's one heck of a storm-how often do you see a 984 monster over S Virginia? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: 12z Euro correcting warmer for our annual warm up around the solstice. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: No we aren't Yes, we am... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 4 minutes ago, suzook said: As of yesterday, you would have thought winter was over. Today, we get a cold run from the cmc, and slightly colder run from gfs, and winter is back. Its hilarious. Give me 3 days of solid runs showing cold, and I will buy it. I seriously don't think we see real cold/snow until Jan. I'm ok with that, as Jan and Feb, hell even March is when we get snow on LI. Watch what you say on here this year. Lot of sensitive warminstas. 6 minutes ago, suzook said: As of yesterday, you would have thought winter was over. Today, we get a cold run from the cmc, and slightly colder run from gfs, and winter is back. Its hilarious. Give me 3 days of solid runs showing cold, and I will buy it. I seriously don't think we see real cold/snow until Jan. I'm ok with that, as Jan and Feb, hell even March is when we get snow on LI. Watch what you post on here . They’ll say it’s over before it’s even begun. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: 12z Euro correcting warmer for our annual warm up around the solstice. New run Old run Upper low jumped N and got stronger as well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 38 minutes ago, psv88 said: You kicked the can in the Ne forum!!! I was joking unlike some people in this thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 29 minutes ago, WX-PA said: Euro does not look like a torch Christmas week here. Models are trending colder for that timeframe. Hopefully it continues to hold. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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