North and West Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 Behind a paywall but why is sucking carbon out of the atmosphere a bad thing? I’m kidding. Just being punny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 52 minutes ago, psv88 said: Anyone hear any good jokes lately? Why did @bluewavecross the road? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 Cool weather will continue through Thursday. Afterward, temperatures will grow milder to end the week. The mild weather will continue through the weekend. No Arctic air appears likely through the remainder of December. However, a transition to a colder pattern could commence during the first week of January. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.9°C for the week centered around December 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.97°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.92°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. El Niño conditions will may strengthen somewhat further this month. The SOI was +6.69 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.180 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January. On December 10 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.890 (RMM). The December 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.862 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 75% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 41.3° (2.2° above normal). 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Why did @bluewavecross the road? To throw his snowblower into a dumpster? 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 Good Wednesday morning... I'll probably start a thread around 9AM for the Sunday-Thursday "potential pair" of wet events that could eventually change to ice or wet snow to I84 Tuesday-Wednesday. Substantial rainfall is outlooked... probably at least an inch for virtually the entire NYC subforum and possibly isolated 6" worst case. Persistent northeast winds for possibly up to 4-5 days could be a coastal flood problem, but far too early to be sure. 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 10 hours ago, leo2000 said: It's cold enough for snow. But only enough to qualify for decadal snow cover extent lows this time of year in North America. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_monitor.html 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 0z and 6z gfs cut the warmup down . Maybe a miracle happening ? 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 anyone notice how warm the overnight Lows are on this cold week? I should easily be below freezing right now…but Im not. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 14 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 0z and 6z gfs cut the warmup down . Maybe a miracle happening ? Fri-Mon. Then marginal air. Like it rained every weekend in Fall, we shoot for 60 every weekend in Dec. No biggie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 11 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: anyone notice how warm the overnight Lows are on this cold week? I should easily be below freezing right now…but Im not. Only the 4th time on record that suburbs like Westchester couldn’t drop below 28° during the first 12 days of December. Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Dec 1 to Dec 12 Missing Count 1 1998-12-12 36 6 2 2015-12-12 29 0 - 1953-12-12 29 1 3 2023-12-12 28 0 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 I guess it was overcast over night. My temperature has gone from 33.3 an hour ago to 28.3 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 28 minutes ago, bluewave said: Only the 4th time on record that suburbs like Westchester couldn’t drop below 28° during the first 12 days of December. Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Dec 1 to Dec 12 Missing Count 1 1998-12-12 36 6 2 2015-12-12 29 0 - 1953-12-12 29 1 3 2023-12-12 28 0 I find it a little funny when you here about a quick arctic airmass moving in and the forecast low for the city is 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 43 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: anyone notice how warm the overnight Lows are on this cold week? I should easily be below freezing right now…but Im not. Same. I shot up to 38 late last night, but then managed down to 28 this morning. Seemed sort of odd. Took a lot longer to start crashing than prior ‘cold’ days. My low for the month is 22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 46 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Fri-Mon. Then marginal air. Like it rained every weekend in Fall, we shoot for 60 every weekend in Dec. No biggie There's still no arctic air involved in the pattern either...big deal if it's 38 instead of 50 you still likely rain with any storm even on a decent track 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: There's still no arctic air involved in the pattern either...big deal if it's 38 instead of 50 you still likely rain with any storm even on a decent track Let's see if the models are right in bringing in a change towards the New Year. Positive changes overnight on the op and ensembles. Maybe Roundy was right with a change near the holidays. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 Another big rainfall possible with the Mon storm. Euro and GGEM have areas over 4” from the storm. Tremendous Nino-enhanced moisture feed being tapped but again I wonder if it’ll be occluded if it strengthens so far south of us which would likely promote a dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Why did @bluewavecross the road? ...to get to phase 5 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 1 hour ago, bluewave said: But only enough to qualify for decadal snow cover extent lows this time of year in North America. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_monitor.html You're a killah 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Another big rainfall possible with the Mon storm. Euro and GGEM have areas over 4” from the storm. Tremendous Nino-enhanced moisture feed being tapped but again I wonder if it’ll be occluded if it strengthens so far south of us which would likely promote a dry slot. We are waterlogged here and it doesn't really dry up due to low sun angle and plants/trees not taking up water 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: We are waterlogged here and it doesn't really dry up due to low sun angle and plants/trees not taking up water If we get slammed again on Mon after 4-5” on Sun IMBY, we’d have to be getting close to a record wet December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 21 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Let's see if the models are right in bringing in a change towards the New Year. Positive changes overnight on the op and ensembles. Maybe Roundy was right with a change near the holidays. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 0z and 6z gfs cut the warmup down . Maybe a miracle happening ?I find your surplus of faith encouraging.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 anyone notice how warm the overnight Lows are on this cold week? I should easily be below freezing right now…but Im not. Do you live in the ocean?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 1 hour ago, the_other_guy said: anyone notice how warm the overnight Lows are on this cold week? I should easily be below freezing right now…but Im not. Just very little artic air and snow cover in Canada… The cold shots will be modified until that changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Just very little artic air and snow cover in Canada… The cold shots will be modified until that changes What are you thinking, second week of January? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What are you thinking, second week of January? The OLR maps are starting to show some strength in the colder phases of the mjo. The p7 standing wave, while still there, shows some signs of weakening. I do like the dry air development in the some of the warmer phases on this map attached. I would think the airmass improves some closer to NYD and gets progressively better as we get deeper into January 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 P8 by Christmas ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Why did @bluewavecross the road? Hahahaha. I mean, he did cross the Sound. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 25 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The OLR maps are starting to show some strength in the colder phases of the mjo. The p7 standing wave, while still there, shows some signs of weakening. I do like the dry air development in the some of the warmer phases on this map attached. I would think the airmass improves some closer to NYD and gets progressively better as we get deeper into January Yea, same page. Care to link that OLR model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 If things stay this active, we’ll have opportunities. That’s really all I can ask for. I agree Jan will see improvement, hopefully with blocking returning and cooler air coming back to the continent. Think it’s difficult to get a real handle with how much the models have been swinging around (again), but we’re talking long range still anyway so that’s not entirely unexpected. Keeping my investment overall minimal until we get some signs of life, and just trying to focus on enjoying the holiday period. Always my favorite time of year! Still prefer it with a shot of vodka cold instead of Bacardi cold, but what can you do? Pretty morning in Hillside, caught a nice glimpse of the city on my way in. Feels warm in the sun already! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now