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December 2023


brooklynwx99
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8 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Think this is a good post from @psuhoffman

 

just read that a little while ago, excellent post. while i do think december is gonna be a dumpster fire i do have some semblance of hope we get it cracking come mid january. patiently waiting for the models to drop those clues in over the coming weeks 

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54 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

just read that a little while ago, excellent post. while i do think december is gonna be a dumpster fire i do have some semblance of hope we get it cracking come mid january. patiently waiting for the models to drop those clues in over the coming weeks 

Jan 15 -Feb 15 winter. Nino climo. Be there, aloha. 

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GFS develops a large blocking high over Quebec reaching central pressures over 1050 and that could play a role in storm development after 20th. Pattern does not look torched, lows forming in central plains states would be prone to coastal redevelopment if that high were longer lasting. But it's more of a mixed or freezing rain signal for interior regions of NY and NE than a snowfall indicator. I continue to look to Dec 26-27 as timing for major storm development.

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5 hours ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Thanks for that info because we couldn't possibly see that. 

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png

The general storm signal is pretty high following the record 500 mb ridge forecast for the Upper Midwest in a few days. But the track is still uncertain. 

 

2516CF09-88F8-4867-B466-702A420637E3.png.947b0b901598afadfa507ef9efcdc93f.png

 

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

that would basically be like '15-16 without the historic December warmth

I buy that or 82-83. Think Raindancewx will win again. 

Don't think we'll be shutout like last winter, pattern is completely different. 

It'll just be a slog before things get better, prob not until 2nd week of Jan given MJO lag. 

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9 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Same sentiments. 

I really did think that the mjo would go into 7-8-1 because of those 30c ssts east of the dateline. And those warm waters run even deeper than the MC. 

I thought placing more importance on the impacts of MC ssts over the E Dateline ssts was misguided, but maybe I gotta rethink that. Again, I’m no expert on the MJO because we kinda glossed over it in my met studies. So that’s where my knowledge gap is, I guess

The more 'favorable' VP anoms did progress as expected.  I do think the MJO signal was overamped and overhyped as a function of the pair of tropical cyclones and a Kelvin wave, but this was a pretty clean 200mb VP signal.  I don't think this failed in that sense.

 

image.thumb.png.96fc4a68607e97842d89460a172a97dc.png

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

I buy that or 82-83. Think Raindancewx will win again. 

Don't think we'll be shutout like last winter, pattern is completely different. 

It'll just be a slog before things get better, prob not until 2nd week of Jan given MJO lag. 

'82 and '15 are both on my composite.

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15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This may be the warmest day 10-15 EPS signal I ever saw for Canada this time of year. 
 

334B0511-6CEC-45C4-B807-A65BF6528280.thumb.png.86caf886aaf7922f5ee437b8f82542c5.png

Not getting any U.S. cold shots between Christmas and New Year's if that is correct!  It is a 360 hour prog but the trend is your friend in this pattern.    **IF** this come close to reality it will take a while to scour out that Canadian warmth so the first 7-10 days of January **COULD** be shot.     :thumbsdown:

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Just now, Rjay said:

I'm with Leo.  Who cares if it's +30 as long as it's cold enough for snow in the arctic. 

May even lay down good snowcover up in Canada even - especially - when they're +20. 

Down here we're at only +3 on those runs. At the end of December, it's marginally cold enough 

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