North and West Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 I think I might have to. Winters have sucked once I changed it. Any suggestions on a name?All I Want For Christmas is Yamamoto on the Mets (I’m hoping this is about the Mets and not meteorology). 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 43 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Yep. Absolutely no cold air anywhere close, all southern stream driven, rain all the way to Montreal Thanks for that info because we couldn't possibly see that. 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 40 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I think I might have to. Winters have sucked once I changed it. Any suggestions on a name? MJO456 2 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 53 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I think I might have to. Winters have sucked once I changed it. Any suggestions on a name? Good afternoon Anthony. How about Snow Lion? That’s you holding the PAC Jet. Stay well, as always … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 Think this is a good post from @psuhoffman 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 8 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: Think this is a good post from @psuhoffman just read that a little while ago, excellent post. while i do think december is gonna be a dumpster fire i do have some semblance of hope we get it cracking come mid january. patiently waiting for the models to drop those clues in over the coming weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 54 minutes ago, vegan_edible said: just read that a little while ago, excellent post. while i do think december is gonna be a dumpster fire i do have some semblance of hope we get it cracking come mid january. patiently waiting for the models to drop those clues in over the coming weeks Jan 15 -Feb 15 winter. Nino climo. Be there, aloha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 GFS develops a large blocking high over Quebec reaching central pressures over 1050 and that could play a role in storm development after 20th. Pattern does not look torched, lows forming in central plains states would be prone to coastal redevelopment if that high were longer lasting. But it's more of a mixed or freezing rain signal for interior regions of NY and NE than a snowfall indicator. I continue to look to Dec 26-27 as timing for major storm development. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 4 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Yay more rain If it's that strong that far south, it probably occludes before getting here. Would be a lot of rain possibly but also quick dry slot if it's occluded. Wind still would be an issue but it underperformed on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 5 hours ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Thanks for that info because we couldn't possibly see that. The general storm signal is pretty high following the record 500 mb ridge forecast for the Upper Midwest in a few days. But the track is still uncertain. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 17 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Jan 15 -Feb 15 winter. Nino climo. Be there, aloha. that would basically be like '15-16 without the historic December warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 Waiting til at least tomorrow morning before a thread start... my trying to be conservative at distant time with uncertainty on UA low track evolution, possibly a two part storm over 4 days, and how much of the area might get some snow? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: that would basically be like '15-16 without the historic December warmth I buy that or 82-83. Think Raindancewx will win again. Don't think we'll be shutout like last winter, pattern is completely different. It'll just be a slog before things get better, prob not until 2nd week of Jan given MJO lag. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 https://apple.news/AuKG_ygP5S46wrr8dM6RYMgThis sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 9 hours ago, Terpeast said: Same sentiments. I really did think that the mjo would go into 7-8-1 because of those 30c ssts east of the dateline. And those warm waters run even deeper than the MC. I thought placing more importance on the impacts of MC ssts over the E Dateline ssts was misguided, but maybe I gotta rethink that. Again, I’m no expert on the MJO because we kinda glossed over it in my met studies. So that’s where my knowledge gap is, I guess The more 'favorable' VP anoms did progress as expected. I do think the MJO signal was overamped and overhyped as a function of the pair of tropical cyclones and a Kelvin wave, but this was a pretty clean 200mb VP signal. I don't think this failed in that sense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 On 12/6/2023 at 9:01 AM, MJO812 said: We shall see but right now , nothing points to a stall . I guess we have to wait and see what happens near the holidays. Also , It takes 7 days for th.e MJO to go through 4 5 6 The slowup will be in phase 8 Nice call 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 12 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Nice call mjo admitted he made a bad call. no need to call him out. go to the upstate thread if you're from bolton landing and wna act like a silly goose 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: I buy that or 82-83. Think Raindancewx will win again. Don't think we'll be shutout like last winter, pattern is completely different. It'll just be a slog before things get better, prob not until 2nd week of Jan given MJO lag. '82 and '15 are both on my composite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 This may be the warmest day 10-15 EPS signal I ever saw for Canada this time of year. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 15 minutes ago, bluewave said: This may be the warmest day 10-15 EPS signal I ever saw for Canada this time of year. Not getting any U.S. cold shots between Christmas and New Year's if that is correct! It is a 360 hour prog but the trend is your friend in this pattern. **IF** this come close to reality it will take a while to scour out that Canadian warmth so the first 7-10 days of January **COULD** be shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 29 minutes ago, bluewave said: This may be the warmest day 10-15 EPS signal I ever saw for Canada this time of year. By looking at those temperatures you would think it was an inferno nowhere close to that. 2 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 1 minute ago, leo2000 said: By looking at those temperatures you would think it was an inferno nowhere close to that. Widespread 20 above normal but nothing to see here? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: Widespread 20 above normal but nothing to see here? It's cold enough for snow. 1 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 28 minutes ago, leo2000 said: It's cold enough for snow. It may be but that arctic warming is a big concern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 2 hours ago, North and West said: https://apple.news/AuKG_ygP5S46wrr8dM6RYMg This sucks . Behind a paywall but why is sucking carbon out of the atmosphere a bad thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 33 minutes ago, leo2000 said: By looking at those temperatures you would think it was an inferno nowhere close to that. Problem is that air would modify as it moves south over snowless ground and warm lakes...we will torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 Anyone hear any good jokes lately? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 15 minutes ago, psv88 said: Anyone hear any good jokes lately? 51 minutes ago, leo2000 said: By looking at those temperatures you would think it was an inferno nowhere close to that. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 I'm with Leo. Who cares if it's +30 as long as it's cold enough for snow in the arctic. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 Just now, Rjay said: I'm with Leo. Who cares if it's +30 as long as it's cold enough for snow in the arctic. May even lay down good snowcover up in Canada even - especially - when they're +20. Down here we're at only +3 on those runs. At the end of December, it's marginally cold enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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