December 2023

[lee59]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The one bright spot with near record warm CONUS December patterns is lower heating bills.

 

This is why, among other reasons, why most people in our area have no problem with a warming climate.

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, lee59 said:

This is why, among other reasons, why most people in our area have no problem with a warming climate.

Yeah, most of the people that I discuss the warmer winters with off this forum are really happy about the milder winters. We seem to be in the minority in liking colder and snowier winters. There are many people who can’t wait to head south when they retire. 

[EastonSN+]

17 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Eps hours 90-360

Until/if the GOA trough moves, we are stuck in a. below which of course floods the continent with PAC air. Not too confident it will move soon given that we are in a strong El nino. We shall see.

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, most of the people that I discuss the warmer winters with off this forum are really happy about the milder winters. We seem to be in the minority in liking colder and snowier winters. There are many people who can’t wait to head south when they retire. I had a funny exchange with someone who was reading one of the online forums. They asked me why do people on these forums keep saying I hope you get crushed when referring to a big snowstorm that was forecast. I thought that was really funny. 

Unfortunately I want to move to a warmer climate as well for an extended summer/boating season. Unfortunately NYC is the epicenter of my industry.

Which El nino season does the 500mb charts match the most so far? I remember 97/98 (gasp), and this is not as strong as 2016. I heard 82/83 was an El Nino however do not know too much about that winter other than the megalopolis storm.

 

[brooklynwx99]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Until/if the GOA trough moves, we are stuck in a. below which of course floods the continent with PAC air. Not too confident it will move soon given that we are in a strong El nino. We shall see.

the jet will retract at some point. seems to be a bit after Christmas for now but we'll see if this is correct on the timing

[bluewave]

24 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Eps hours 90-360

Those are going to be some extreme December monthly departures for places like International Falls as they are already at +11.9.

 

Time Series Summary for International Falls Area, MN (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Dec 11	Missing Count
1	2015-12-11	32.4	0
2	1913-12-11	30.3	0
3	1920-12-11	28.6	0
4	1999-12-11	27.9	0
5	2023-12-11	27.6	0
6	1923-12-11	27.0	0
7	2020-12-11	26.6	0
8	1952-12-11	25.0	0
9	1967-12-11	24.8	0
10	1998-12-11	24.6	0

[EastonSN+]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

the jet will retract at some point. seems to be a bit after Christmas for now but we'll see if this is correct on the timing

Thanks! I read a post on the MA forum stating that it's "against physics" for the jet to stay extended indefinitely lol.

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks! I read a post on the MA forum stating that it's "against physics" for the jet to stay extended indefinitely lol.

i mean, it is. the jet extends due to a +EAMT that leads to an easterly PGF (and winds). the Pacific jet counteracts that EAMT to conserve momentum. it's not going to remain extended like that forever. it's a temporary solution to a physics problem, basically

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Those are going to be some extreme December monthly departures for places like International Falls as they are already at +11.9.

 

Time Series Summary for International Falls Area, MN (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Dec 11	Missing Count
1	2015-12-11	32.4	0
2	1913-12-11	30.3	0
3	1920-12-11	28.6	0
4	1999-12-11	27.9	0
5	2023-12-11	27.6	0
6	1923-12-11	27.0	0
7	2020-12-11	26.6	0
8	1952-12-11	25.0	0
9	1967-12-11	24.8	0
10	1998-12-11	24.6	0

Yeah they are in a bad spot in these setups unfortunately.

[nycsnow]

Models starting to show some impacts up here Monday from that storm developing in the south over the weekend 

[EastonSN+]

11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i mean, it is. the jet extends due to a +EAMT that leads to an easterly PGF (and winds). the Pacific jet counteracts that EAMT to conserve momentum. it's not going to remain extended like that forever. it's a temporary solution to a physics problem, basically

I know I keep throwing this pic out there, however going from b. the last 2 winters to a. so far has been disheartening. Last good winter was 3 years ago which feels like forever. This board is ready to erupt once we finally get into the next good pattern lol.

[MJO812]

31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, most of the people that I discuss the warmer winters with off this forum are really happy about the milder winters. We seem to be in the minority in liking colder and snowier winters. There are many people who can’t wait to head south when they retire. 

I rather move to Caribou or Marquette.

[brooklynwx99]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I know I keep throwing this pic out there, however going from b. the last 2 winters to a. so far has been disheartening. Last good winter was 3 years ago which feels like forever. This board is ready to erupt once we finally get into the next good pattern lol.

there is a pretty good shot we move to d) later this winter, though. just gotta be patient

[Volcanic Winter]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I rather move to Caribou or Marquette.

You could come visit me once I set up my log cabin in Katmai national park. 

[brooklynwx99]

also good job @Allsnow and @bluewave for your skepticism. I still think we'll enter a favorable pattern once into Jan (probably around the 10th if I had to guess?) and especially Feb, but the Nino is really flexing its muscles right now. pretty par for the course with strong Nino Decembers, though

[40/70 Benchmark]

@Allsnow@SnoSki14@bluewave@snowman19Nice job on December....gotta give credit for not buying the holiday flip headfake.

Nice job.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

also good job @Allsnow and @bluewave for your skepticism. I still think we'll enter a favorable pattern once into Jan (probably around the 10th if I had to guess?) and especially Feb, but the Nino is really flexing its muscles right now. pretty par for the course with strong Nino Decembers, though

Credit ninja lol

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

also good job @Allsnow and @bluewave for your skepticism. I still think we'll enter a favorable pattern once into Jan (probably around the 10th if I had to guess?) and especially Feb, but the Nino is really flexing its muscles right now. pretty par for the course with strong Nino Decembers, though

If it doesn't happen by mid Jan it's probably not coming.    And by 3/10 or so it's too late anyway which was last year's problem along with zero cold air despite a decent pattern

[brooklynwx99]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

If it doesn't happen by mid Jan it's probably not coming.    And by 3/10 or so it's too late anyway which was last year's problem along with zero cold air despite a decent pattern

i would be shocked if there wasn't a change to a more favorable pattern. analogs and seasonals have been screaming for it since the summer. combine that with the weak SPV and previous -NAO spell and there's a good case for it

[Volcanic Winter]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@Allsnow@SnoSki14@bluewave@snowman19Nice job on December....gotta give credit for not buying the holiday flip headfake.

Nice job.

Ah yes, the Four Horsemen of the Warmpocalypse. 
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i would be shocked if there wasn't a change to a more favorable pattern. analogs and seasonals have been screaming for it since the summer. combine that with the weak SPV and previous -NAO spell and there's a good case for it

I think the manner in which the month of December evolved still bodes well for the rest of the season.

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the manner in which the month of December evolved still bodes well for the rest of the season.

if we get a SSW (which is a legit possibility) then it could seriously be hammer time for February. but we will see about that

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Ah yes, the Four Horsemen of the Warmpocalypse. 
 

Well, its one thing to break balls and we all know that everyone has some level of bias and what they are, but you have to keep it real. I don't know how anyone that doesn't acknowledge good forecasting can expect to have any credibility. It is what it is.

[Volcanic Winter]

Nah I totally agree. Was poking fun at how many see them on the overall forum these days. “Keeping it real” is a good way to phrase it, I’m pretty skeptical and rational-minded by nature and even I’m totally guilty of getting sucked into emotional hype for a desired outcome. 

This place is a treasure trove of knowledge of all sorts, and I’ve learned an unbelievable amount from all of you. Not many old school boards around these days with this much brainpower in one spot, at least that I’m aware of. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Nah I totally agree. Was poking fun at how many see them on the overall forum these days. “Keeping it real” is a good way to phrase it, I’m pretty skeptical and rational-minded by nature and even I’m totally guilty of getting sucked into emotional hype for a desired outcome. 

 

We all have some sort of preference and preoccupation regarding weather that will bias our perceptions to some degree, otherwise we would't be here. The goal is to foster greater insight into it and in so doing limit how detrimental it is to any forecasting effort. 

[NittanyWx]

9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if we get a SSW (which is a legit possibility) then it could seriously be hammer time for February. but we will see about that

Just curious why you think it's the strato that's needed?  We've had blocking over the pole and SSW's are mostly viewed as a way to weaken the PV to allow for more blocking.  There's been the -AO, there's been a -NAO...to me this needs to be some sort of wave breaking signature to change things in the Pacific since default state in Nino years like this is +PNA.

 

PV splits have a loose correlation to cold roughly 24 days after they occur, but that would then be kicking the can more to Feb, no?  If you're looking for Jan help it's gonna need to be some combo of Pac changes in conjunction with dislodging some cooler air.

 

I think you're on the right track with the idea of jet retraction, since in my mind the way for this to happen is retrograding +PNA which amps into AK and finally dislodges some cooler air and aims it towards NA.

[Allsnow]

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@Allsnow@SnoSki14@bluewave@snowman19Nice job on December....gotta give credit for not buying the holiday flip headfake.

Nice job.

 

26 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

also good job @Allsnow and @bluewave for your skepticism. I still think we'll enter a favorable pattern once into Jan (probably around the 10th if I had to guess?) and especially Feb, but the Nino is really flexing its muscles right now. pretty par for the course with strong Nino Decembers, though

Thanks. Believe me, I wish I was wrong. My original passion for this hobby is a good winter storm. I do think we flip at some point in January. I just really don’t know when and I don’t like the lingering convection in p7 to start the month. 
 

I appreciate both of you making me better…hopefully we all are tracking some good winter storms in January 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, NittanyWx said:

Just curious why you think it's the strato that's needed?  We've had blocking over the pole and SSW's are mostly viewed as a way to weaken the PV to allow for more blocking.  There's been the -AO, there's been a -NAO...to me this needs to be some sort of wave breaking signature to change things in the Pacific since default state in Nino years like this is +PNA.

 

PV splits have a loose correlation to cold roughly 24 days after they occur, but that would then be kicking the can more to Feb, no?

 

I think you're on the right track with the idea of jet retraction, since in my mind the way for this to happen is retrograding +PNA which amps into AK and finally dislodges some cooler air and aims it towards NA.

i don't think that's it's needed per se, but it would definitely help set the stage for a very blocky February. I think the jet retraction is the main catalyst for a more favorable Jan pattern and the main blocking spell coincides with the SPV shenanigans heading into Feb

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

Thanks. Believe me, I wish I was wrong. My original passion for this hobby is a good winter storm. I do think we flip at some point in January. I just really don’t know when and I don’t like the lingering convection in p7 to start the month. 
 

I appreciate both of you making me better…hopefully we all are tracking some good winter storms in January 

I like to bust balls....its never personal and I do respect/value your input.

[Terpeast]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I like to bust balls....its never personal and I do respect/value your input.

Same sentiments. 

I really did think that the mjo would go into 7-8-1 because of those 30c ssts east of the dateline. And those warm waters run even deeper than the MC. 

I thought placing more importance on the impacts of MC ssts over the E Dateline ssts was misguided, but maybe I gotta rethink that. Again, I’m no expert on the MJO because we kinda glossed over it in my met studies. So that’s where my knowledge gap is, I guess