December 2023

[snowman19]

17 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

If this was late January or early February winter would be over. 

The other side of the pole appears to be going into a positive feedback loop with the snow, ice and cold. They are wayyy above normal in cold, ice and snowcover there, which reinforces itself and creates massive surface high pressure over that area. It’s going to want to stay put. It will not be easy to dislodge that. If we go into January and are in the same boat, it will be a very bad sign. Pray something changes in a very big way over the next month

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, North and West said:

Oh, I’m not denying what you’re saying (in fact, I have no idea what you’re talking about), it’s just that like Christmas decorating and raking leaves, it’s a seasonal tradition to declare winter over and walk through the stages of grief.


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Too much Twitter/hype garbage with a pattern change 12/20 and "disruptive travel week" for xmas blahblahblah, people lap up that stuff like a hungry lion and a steak

[North and West]

Too much Twitter/hype garbage with a pattern change 12/20 and "disruptive travel week" for xmas blahblahblah, people lap up that stuff like a hungry lion and a steak

And it’s always good promotion to juuuuuust happen to have posts or news lead-ins that have potential snow and cold around Christmas or any holiday.


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[NittanyWx]

Just to circle back on the source region/weeklies discussion from last week:

 

This look from the EC Ens mid 11-15 day now looks a lot like the weeklies from a couple weeks back at H5

 

 

 

Now at the time there was debate about MJO being the precursor to find cold in this pattern.  However, as discussed then, the concern was that there wasn't cold in western Canada to be displaced and a lack of snowcover would modulate a very weak cP airmass in the event of a +PNA.

 

The 2m temps from the EC Weekly for that period:

 

So in my view, this strong + EPO forecast and roll forward was pretty well advertised.  And shouldn't come as too much of a surprise given source airmass and seasonal factors tending to support that idea in December strong Nino's.

 

The models are forecasting the MJO progression in both of these cases.  So the use case of 'I can forecast the anomaly better than the model because I feel the model isn't seeing the true reflecfion of the MJO' actually led to negative forecast skill.  Utilizing the weeklies in this case would've been prudent and understanding the source region wasn't sufficient are and were very important pieces of this puzzle.

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, North and West said:

And it’s always good promotion to juuuuuust happen to have posts or news lead-ins that have potential snow and cold around Christmas or any holiday.


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Kind of like the Farmer's almanac-would you pick up a copy if it said "warm and snowless" all winter?   Nope.

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, NittanyWx said:

Just to circle back on the source region/weeklies discussion from a couple weeks back...

 

This look from the EC Ens mid 11-15 day now looks a lot like the weeklies from a couple weeks back at H5

 

 

 

Now at the time there was debate about MJO being the precursor to find cold in this pattern.  However, as discussed then, the concern was that there wasn't cold in western Canada to be displaced and a lack of snowcover would modulate a very weak cP airmass.

 

The 2m temps from the EC Weekly for that period:

 

So in my view, this EPO forecast and roll forward was pretty well advertised.  And shouldn't come as too much of a surprise given source airmass.

 

The models are forecasting the MJO progression in both of these cases.  So the use case of 'I can forecast the anomaly better than the model because I feel the model isn't seeing the true reflecfion of the MJO' actually led to negative forecast skill.  Utilizing the weeklies in this case would've been prudent.

Outstanding post.   Good way to look at it all....

[Volcanic Winter]

It really appears to me you have a group of people here or otherwise that take 2 week plus guidance in good faith (when it’s consistent, to be fair) and those are that are always skeptical of such guidance. I see a lot of this on this forum overall boiling down to that. Guys like @40/70 Benchmark really put an enormous amount of work and effort into a holistic seasonal forecast that I find incredibly detailed and impressive, and people like him really stick their necks out doing that type of forecasting. It’s commendable, even when a miss IMHO. I certainly wouldn’t and definitely couldn’t do it. 
 

There just appears to be a lot of specific anomalous features in the broader hemispheric pattern like the record RNA and deep southwest troughs of past winters that really seem to screw the integrity of longer range pattern guidance. That kind of volatility really makes trusting the longer range difficult, but I’ve heard @brooklynwx99 state it and I totally get what he’s saying, that’s kind of how this works and that’s kind of the tool you’re supposed to use. But things lately appear more chaotic and subject to extreme variation. 

Sorry to ramble, just musing a bit. I’m sure a lot of Twitter forecasters employ hype tactics for views, but also it really has to suck right now especially to try and do long range forecasting with any accuracy. And I don’t begrudge those that do in good faith and ultimately fall short given the chaotic flux that has been our winter patterns lately. That’s my ultimate point. 

[the_other_guy]

Belleayre got 7 inches and has 25 trails open. Anyone wanna car pool Wednesday? haha

[snowman19]

9 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

Just to circle back on the source region/weeklies discussion from last week:

 

This look from the EC Ens mid 11-15 day now looks a lot like the weeklies from a couple weeks back at H5

 

 

 

Now at the time there was debate about MJO being the precursor to find cold in this pattern.  However, as discussed then, the concern was that there wasn't cold in western Canada to be displaced and a lack of snowcover would modulate a very weak cP airmass in the event of a +PNA.

 

The 2m temps from the EC Weekly for that period:

 

So in my view, this strong + EPO forecast and roll forward was pretty well advertised.  And shouldn't come as too much of a surprise given source airmass and seasonal factors tending to support that idea in December strong Nino's.

 

The models are forecasting the MJO progression in both of these cases.  So the use case of 'I can forecast the anomaly better than the model because I feel the model isn't seeing the true reflecfion of the MJO' actually led to negative forecast skill.  Utilizing the weeklies in this case would've been prudent and understanding the source region wasn't sufficient are and were very important pieces of this puzzle.

As long as there is a massive vortex in the EPO region, Canada and the CONUS are going to get flooded with PAC air, cutting off cross-polar flow, equivalent to a big Chinook across North America. It won’t matter what the AO/NAO do in that case, they will just trap PAC air underneath the high latitude blocking

[Stormlover74]

9 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

It really appears to me you have a group of people here or otherwise that take 2 week plus guidance in good faith (when it’s consistent, to be fair) and those are that are always skeptical of such guidance. I see a lot of this on this forum overall boiling down to that. Guys like 40/70 really put an enormous amount of work and effort into a holistic seasonal forecast that I find incredibly detailed and impressive, and people like him really stick their necks out doing that type of forecasting. It’s commendable, even when a miss IMHO. I certainly wouldn’t or couldn’t do it. 
 

There just appears to be a lot of specific anomalous features in the broader hemispheric pattern like the record RNA and deep southwest troughs of past winters that really seem to screw the integrity of longer range pattern guidance. That kind of volatility really makes trusting the longer range difficult, but I’ve heard Brooklyn state it and I totally get what he’s saying, that’s kind of how this works and that’s kind of the tool you’re supposed to use. But things lately appear more chaotic and subject to extreme variation. 

Sorry to ramble, just musing a bit. I’m sure a lot of Twitter forecasters employ hype tactics for views, but also it really has to suck to try and do long range forecasts with any accuracy. That’s my ultimate point. 

It makes you wonder why anyone bothers. Nobody predicted last winter to be a snowless disaster nor have I ever seen anyone forecast such a winter.

Most I believe are not hyping but are trying to outline when and how we'll flip to a more favorable pattern and see some snow but with so many factors and so much depending on timing it's nearly impossible to predict

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

As long as there is a massive vortex in the EPO region, Canada and the CONUS are going to get flooded with PAC air, cutting off cross-polar flow, equivalent to a big Chinook across North America. It won’t matter what the AO/NAO do in that case, they will just trap PAC air underneath the high latitude blocking

i don't expect the Pacific jet to remain this strong. there's going to be an anomalous +EAMT event that leads to the extension and heights in AK likely rise as the jet retracts

[Brian5671]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

i don't expect the Pacific jet to remain this strong. there's going to be an anomalous +EAMT event that leads to the extension and heights in AK likely rise as the jet retracts

The next problem will be routing out all the mild air.  Canada could take a couple weeks to cool down even in a best case scenario...that would take up to mid Jan.   

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The next problem will be routing out all the mild air.  Canada could take a couple weeks to cool down even in a best case scenario...that would take up to mid Jan.   

i can see us getting to near normal during the end of the first week of Jan. Central Canada can be +5 for all we care, that is cold enough in Jan

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

The next problem will be routing out all the mild air.  Canada could take a couple weeks to cool down even in a best case scenario...that would take up to mid Jan.   

Yep. It is going to take a sustained, substantial PAC jet retraction, a big improvement in the EPO region and sustained cross-polar flow to seed Canada with arctic cold and snowcover. The process isn’t just going to happen overnight given the already large deficiency we are seeing 

[Volcanic Winter]

Just now, snowman19 said:

Yep. It is going to take a sustained, substantial PAC jet retraction, a big improvement in the EPO region and sustained cross-polar flow to seed Canada with arctic cold and snowcover. The process isn’t just going to happen overnight given the already large deficiency we are seeing 

Appreciate your thoughts, all well understood. 

The question becomes can we score on a storm with a good track in a marginal Jan airmass that isn’t fully cooked? I certainly hope that’s the case, though my expectations are measured. 

[brooklynwx99]

this is my point about Canada. these were the 850mb temp anomalies in Feb 2010. Canada was absolutely roasting... some spots were like 15F above normal right in our SE Canada source region. like literally all of Canada is inundated with Pacific air and at least 5 degrees F above normal and it didn't matter

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i can see us getting to near normal during the end of the first week of Jan. Central Canada can be +5 for all we care, that is cold enough in Jan

I think you're optimistic there...I remember the winter of 05-06 it was the same thing-the cold just never came once Canada was flooded-granted different drivers that year but I think models often rush it...

[brooklynwx99]

not making a direct pattern comparison to Feb 2010 by any means, just saying that Canada doesn't need to be frigid or even near normal for our intents and purposes. their averages are way colder than ours. that doesn't address the lack of cold air here, but it can be colder than average here and way warmer than average there and it works

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

I think you're optimistic there...I remember the winter of 05-06 it was the same thing-the cold just never came once Canada was flooded-granted different drivers that year but I think models often rush it...

yeah I can see a touch AN especially into NE, but the torch should abate as we step into typical Nino climo

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I think you're optimistic there...I remember the winter of 05-06 it was the same thing-the cold just never came once Canada was flooded-granted different drivers that year but I think models often rush it...

Good winter though. People forget December was cold and snowy and even though the Feb blizzard melted in 3 days it was still a huge storm. January torched of course but we did alot with little cold

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Good winter though. People forget December was cold and snowy and even though the Feb blizzard melted in 3 days it was still a huge storm. January torched of course but we did alot with little cold

Even better…the blizzard in 06 hammered our area. The thunder snow was epic 

[North and West]

The next problem will be routing out all the mild air.  Canada could take a couple weeks to cool down even in a best case scenario...that would take up to mid Jan.   

I think one thing now that we’ve swung to one side so hard is that we often forget that it can snow, even with mild conditions forecasted long range.

Weird things happen, and while I wouldn’t put my trust in it, things pop up all time.


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[Brian5671]

14 minutes ago, North and West said:

I think one thing now that we’ve swung to one side so hard is that we often forget that it can snow, even with mild conditions forecasted long range.

Weird things happen, and while I wouldn’t put my trust in it, things pop up all time.


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yep I remember a couple storms in the 80's where it was torch and we get a lucky storm of course it was gone in 2 days but who cares

[MJO812]

19 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Even better…the blizzard in 06 hammered our area. The thunder snow was epic 

Nyc had 3-5 inch snow bands during that storm. 

[JustinRP37]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The other side of the pole appears to be going into a positive feedback loop with the snow, ice and cold. They are wayyy above normal in cold, ice and snowcover there, which reinforces itself and creates massive surface high pressure over that area. It’s going to want to stay put. It will not be easy to dislodge that. If we go into January and are in the same boat, it will be a very bad sign. Pray something changes in a very big way over the next month

There is literally no truth in your post. See November temp anomaly:

 

See Eurasia snow cover anomaly:

 

And see northern hemisphere snow cover anomaly:

 

If we are going to be downright hyperbolic, make sure it is correct data. For everyone, what are we all arguing about? For the love of God and the holidays, why are we acting like winter is going to be a shutout again? There is literally nothing that shows winter making a no show this season. Stop with the bickering and hyperbolic proclamations. 

 

[JustinRP37]

57 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Belleayre got 7 inches and has 25 trails open. Anyone wanna car pool Wednesday? haha

I would love to, but it is my son's holiday concert at school. The way people are talking here, you better bring a raft and enjoy a day at Bellayre beach instead. Bellayre is looking great this early in the season. Can't wait to ride the new lift! 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Not a good sign when you are approaching mid-December and the snowcover on our side of the pole is this bad. Arctic sea ice is also below normal and all of the arctic cold is on the other side of the pole in Eurasia

Yeah, the warmth from MJO and El Niño induced Pacific Jet extension is going to be around for a while. When you see such a deep trough south of Alaska and strong ridge over Canada it keeps the Pacific Jet aimed at the West Coast. Plus we are going to lose the -AO and -NAO blocking. But this has been par for the course in December in recent years. So expectations have been lowered especially early on during El Niños.

https://globalcryospherewatch.org/state_of_cryo/snow/

[North and West]

There is literally no truth in your post. See November temp anomaly:

 
See Eurasia snow cover anomaly:

 
And see northern hemisphere snow cover anomaly:

 
If we are going to be downright hyperbolic, make sure it is correct data. For everyone, what are we all arguing about? For the love of God and the holidays, why are we acting like winter is going to be a shutout again? There is literally nothing that shows winter making a no show this season. Stop with the bickering and hyperbolic proclamations. 
 

Sounds like everyone needs a hit of the powdery white stuff.



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[NittanyWx]

57 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

not making a direct pattern comparison to Feb 2010 by any means, just saying that Canada doesn't need to be frigid or even near normal for our intents and purposes. their averages are way colder than ours. that doesn't address the lack of cold air here, but it can be colder than average here and way warmer than average there and it works

 

Couple things...first, you had a midcon snowpack then:

 

Vs now:

 

And really my point a couple weeks ago was 'what air are you advecting?' when you went back to a +PNA for that Christmas week.

Not saying it can't snow from a one off, but I am saying this current setup that was shown for the last week of Dec wasn't a modeling error.  It actually looks like a really good forecast. 

 

So now it's really to me about finding a way to dislodge that extremely +EPO and also weaken that Pac jet extension.  Yeah i don't think climo supports the Pac jet staying extended for long, but I still am of the belief that some source region is needed after the Pac air floods most of NA.

 

It's possible, but I really do believe if you want a prolonged snowier period in this type of climate you need some Canadian HP and it would help to have some form on a midcon snowpack that is usable in a baseline +PNA scenario.

 

I'm agnostic at the moment.  Think both things are possible, but I'm not at the probable stage until I see some changes in the AK region.

[Volcanic Winter]

For the record I’m not really seeing much in the way of bickering right now and thought this has been a rather congenial back and forth of various concerns and viewpoints. 

Definitely better than at some earlier junctures IMO. 

Appreciating all the insights shared right now.