December 2023

[SnoSki14]

The CONUS wide warmth on the Euro is insane. I don't think I've ever seen anything like it. 

[bluewave]

10 hours ago, Rjay said:

I'm on board with >+3 departures.  

Same for me. I originally had +2.5 to +5.0 range for the various  NYC metro stations. I use a 2.5° scale. -2.5 to -5.0…0 to -2.5…0 to +2.5…+2.5 to 5.0. On my map the +2.5 line  is just to our south this month. And the +5.0 is to our NW closer to the Great Lakes. There may also be a 10+ departure region this month in the Upper Midwest near International Falls. 
 

Currently +4.5 for EWR….NYC….+4.6…ISP….+4.1.

 

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

49 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The CONUS wide warmth on the Euro is insane. I don't think I've ever seen anything like it. 

Mega pacific jet streak will do that. Closing the shades until that changes. Strong nino December,  par, for the course. 

[MJO812]

Long range on the gfs and Euro looks horrendous. 

[SnoSki14]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Long range on the gfs and Euro looks horrendous. 

So much for a Christmas pattern change. Warmth always wins now

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

So much for a Christmas pattern change. Warmth always wins now

Kicking the can as always. Honestly without a SSW or something or that magnitude, it’s best just to not look at the long range and enjoy the holidays. Strong/super nino climo is pretty much a lock for a warm December. 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

So much for a Christmas pattern change. Warmth always wins now

It did look great at one point but the MJO stalling in 7 isn't helping .

I can admit I was wrong .

It seems like we can't get snow anymore in December . The new winter months are January February and March.

[donsutherland1]

On 12/3/2023 at 8:16 AM, donsutherland1 said:

Some weekly numbers:

The final numbers: Warmth overperformed in New England relative to the ECMWF weekly map; parts of the Mid-Atlantic were wetter than normal.

[frd]

57 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Same for me. I originally had +2.5 to +5.0 range for the various  NYC metro stations. I use a 2.5° scale. -2.5 to -5.0…0 to -2.5…0 to +2.5…+2.5 to 5.0. On my map the +2.5 line  is just to our south this month. And the +5.0 is to our NW closer to the Great Lakes. There may also be a 10+ departure region this month in the Upper Midwest near International Falls. 
 

Currently +4.5 for EWR….NYC….+4.6…ISP….+4.1.

 

 

Read Canada will have + 20 departures, thats insane and sad. 

[EastonSN+]

9 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

December 2015 really did seem like a tipping point. 

The temperature acceleration since then has been nothing short of extraordinary. 

Anyone still denying the warming trend is a complete imbecile. 

There are people denying that it's getting warmer?

[Brian5671]

26 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Kicking the can as always. Honestly without a SSW or something or that magnitude, it’s best just to not look at the long range and enjoy the holidays. Strong/super nino climo is pretty much a lock for a warm December. 

I wonder if this ends up being a cooler version of 15-16 which was a 3-4 week winter from Mid Jan to about Feb 10th....

[EastonSN+]

14 hours ago, bluewave said:

It was the cold in February which allowed the Southeast to cash in. 
 

https://www.weather.gov/ilm/Feb1973Snow

One of the greatest snowstorms in Southeastern United States history occurred February 9-11, 1973.  This storm dropped one to two feet of snow across a region that typically sees only an inch or two of snow per year.  New all-time snowfall records were established in a number of locations including Rimini, SC with 24 inches; 18 inches in Darlington, SC; and 16.5 inches in Macon, GA.  Snowfall in Wilmington, NC reached 12.5 inches with 7.1 inches recorded in Charleston, SC, both setting all-time records which were broken just 16 years later during the Christmas snowstorm of 1989.  Measurable snow fell along the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida and flurries were reported as far south as Lisbon and Clermont, Florida just outside of Orlando.

That was the greatest one for Myrtle!

Below are the most resent Myrtle events, with 2010 the most recent warning level event.

[Brian5671]

7 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

I don't disagree, but I'm not sure that's the problem I'm seeing on this forum, to me it's two things.

1. People expect too much, too soon.  I was just paging through my records and it's not uncommon to get very little snow in December, especially since 2015.  Our prime is always January through the beginning of March.  

2. The cold camp is way too focused on only seeing what they want to see.  Any sort of model run, chart, graph, etc. that shows a hint of warmth is wrong or the poster is just a warm troll, even if they are a credible member.  Yet you could show a 300 hour GFS run that has some sort of cold tucked in there, and boom it's gonna snow in 2 weeks.

It's the same thing every winter...variation on the same themes and agendas.   

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Mega pacific jet streak will do that. Closing the shades until that changes. Strong nino December,  par, for the course. 

Exactly, I for one was just excited to avoid another la Nina and completely ignored the fact that strong el Ninos are typically not good for snowfall, especially in December.

For now we enjoy the energy savings!

[EastonSN+]

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I wonder if this ends up being a cooler version of 15-16 which was a 3-4 week winter from Mid Jan to about Feb 10th....

I do not have the stats for strong El nino winters, however they seem to be either complete snowless torches like 97/98 (extreme example) or 3 to 4 week stretches like 1983 or 2016.

[EastonSN+]

Looks like the DC area had their first event, good for them! Even DC itself recorded 0.1 (Regan). Rare to see DC score before NYC and Boston.

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I do not have the stats for strong El nino winters, however they seem to be either complete snowless torches like 97/98 (extreme example) or 3 to 4 week stretches like 1983 or 2016.

That's my hope here.  It's going to take awhile to get north America cold again after the upcoming torch.  I could see us struggling into January for sure....

[EastonSN+]

This is obviously just a potential, however this is an example for the audience members who do not remember 97/98. That year had numerous good storm tracks yet yielded only rain due to the fact that the continent was flooded with PAC air.

That was the most frustrating winter I can remember.

[EastonSN+]

Still have to watch the PAC trough which needs to retrograde. Until it does PAC air will dominate. 

The 850 temp map below is an almost perfect example of this. Negative departures in all the wrong places (extreme west coast/off the coast) and Greenland. Unfortunately this can/is currently occuring in strong el ninos especially December.

 

[bluewave]

33 minutes ago, frd said:

Read Canada will have + 20 departures, thats insane and sad. 

While it’s tough to say exactly how far above +10° the departures finish in Canada, some of the warmth records so far have been pretty impressive. 

 

 

[EastonSN+]

9 hours ago, cbmclean said:

A link to Dr. Simon Lee's page documenting his weather "regimes".

https://simonleewx.com/north-american-weather-regimes/

Obviously we are about to embark on a very robust "Pacific Trough" regime.  There is some hint of a potential transition to a "Greenland High" regime starting between Christmas and New Years, but it is by no means a certainty.

Great read Courtesy of the MA forum. Strongly suggest for all!

The top 2 on the pic at the end have been our most recent winters.

 

[bluewave]

Whenever Canada gets this warm, the North American snow cover extent goes way down.

https://globalcryospherewatch.org/state_of_cryo/snow/

 

 

 

[North and West]

58 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Kicking the can as always. Honestly without a SSW or something or that magnitude, it’s best just to not look at the long range and enjoy the holidays. Strong/super nino climo is pretty much a lock for a warm December. 

100% this. Enjoy the time with your loved ones. We can't control things, so it's best to enjoy what's in front of us.

56 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It did look great at one point but the MJO stalling in 7 isn't helping .

I can admit I was wrong .

It seems like we can't get snow anymore in December . The new winter months are January February and March.

It's great to admit that you were wrong, but I wouldn't say it can't snow at this point of the year. That's just frustration speaking. In the past 15 years, we had October, November, and December storms. During those years, it didn't seem to snow much in March. That flipped for now, and it will likely flip again, but we have no idea when.

It reminds me of when I was a kid, and thinking it would *never* snow. Ever. My dad told me to be patient. My elementary years coincided with 1987-1993, so it didn't have a major snowstorm until March of my fifth grade year. It happens and it drives us nuts. 

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Whenever Canada gets this warm, the North American snow cover extent goes way down.

https://globalcryospherewatch.org/state_of_cryo/snow/

 

 

 

Yeah, until that trough retrogrades it will be in a perfect position to flood the continent. I "believe" the trough is also in a similar position to 11/12.

[MJO812]

Places to our south are even seeing snow and we can't even buy a dusting. 

Smfh

[EastonSN+]

(a) is exactly what we are experiencing now. See Canada and compare to now and the below map. Perfect match. 

(b) is what la Nina, last year brought. 

 

[the_other_guy]

34 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

That's my hope here.  It's going to take awhile to get north America cold again after the upcoming torch.  I could see us struggling into January for sure....

would you call 2016 a 3 to 4 week winter?

That was one mega storm, that immediately melted. There was a cold snap in February. Those are the only two notable things that winter. There was a lot of warmth around that

[MJO812]

Christmas actually felt like Christmas last year with temps in the single digits on Christmas eve morning.

[the_other_guy]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Christmas actually felt like Christmas last year with temps in the single digits on Christmas eve morning.

Oh please it was a two day cold snap that was already warming up by Christmas Day. It was alarming how we can’t keep cold for more than 48 hours now even when it’s that deep.

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

would you call 2016 a 3 to 4 week winter?

That was one mega storm, that immediately melted. There was a cold snap in February. Those are the only two notable things that winter. There was a lot of warmth around that

We had a big slop storm here in early Feb that dropped 8-9 inches that year.  That plus the blizzard made for a decent 3 week stretch but that was about it.  After the cold snap winter was over that year..