MANDA Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 Keep expectations in check and just know it has to be better than last year ! I am not expecting much from December based on current trends and guidance. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 13 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Calling for a crappy winter in November ? What's going on with some people on here ? It's a time honored tradition 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 27, 2023 Author Share Posted November 27, 2023 we are in a well coupled borderline super Nino. what do some of you think needs to happen? the discourse is as if we're still in a La Nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 27, 2023 Author Share Posted November 27, 2023 do we need +4C anomalies over the Pacific in order for El Nino forcing to be felt? i truly do not see why there is so much discussion as if this Nino is failing and we're just stuck in a La Nina. it makes zero sense. this event is going to top out at like +1.8C 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: do we need +4C anomalies over the Pacific in order for El Nino forcing to be felt? i truly do not see why there is so much discussion as if this Nino is failing and we're just stuck in a La Nina. it makes zero sense. this event is going to top out at like +1.8C Both things can be true at the same time. The record WPAC warm pool is providing fuel for the forcing near MJO 4 to MJO 6. The near record Nino 4 SSTs are boosting the forcing near MJO 7. So we are getting a tug of war between competing El Niño and La Niña influences. This pattern translates into a warmer pattern for us in December. The hope is that the MJO 4-6 forcing can fade enough as the season progresses to allow some version of the backloaded El Niño winter climo to emerge. But as Chuck mentioned yesterday, we don’t want La Niña forcing to interfere with the typical El Niño response from later January into February. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: Both things can be true at the same time. The record WPAC warm pool is providing fuel for the forcing near MJO 4 to MJO 6. The near record Nino 4 SSTs are boosting the forcing near MJO 7. So we are getting a tug of war between competing El Niño and La Niña influences. This pattern translates into a warmer pattern for us in December. The hope is that the MJO 4-6 forcing can fade enough as the season progresses to allow some version of the backloaded El Niño winter climo to emerge. But as Chuck mentioned yesterday, we don’t want La Niña forcing to interfere with the typical El Niño response from later January into February. That’s what happened in 2019 during late January into February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 27, 2023 Author Share Posted November 27, 2023 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: That’s what happened in 2019 during late January into February 2018-19 was a weak Nino. I don't see why the same would occur during a borderline super event. this is a completely different year 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: 2018-19 was a weak Nino. I don't see why the same would occur during a borderline super event. this is a completely different year If we still have conflicting signals (Nina forcing) it most certainly can happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 he saw it coming 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 27, 2023 Author Share Posted November 27, 2023 Just now, forkyfork said: he saw it coming this explanation makes sense, as the strong IOD leading to forcing in P3 is a typical strong Nino response. it's not Nina forcing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 Around this time in 2015 people were calling for a +2 - +3 December. 2 weeks later we were calling for a +10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Around this time in 2015 people were calling for a +2 - +3 December. 2 weeks later we were calling for a +10 The -nao will prevent us from really torching to start the month. It will be above normal but it would have been torching without a -nao 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 Latest NAO forecast shows the NAO going positive in the extended range. The AO remains negative. Were both to go positive, that would favor an even warmer outcome than is currently forecast. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 winter forecast: will it be cold?: probably will it snow?: probably is paranoia from winter '22/'23 running rampant?: 110% 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: do we need +4C anomalies over the Pacific in order for El Nino forcing to be felt? i truly do not see why there is so much discussion as if this Nino is failing and we're just stuck in a La Nina. it makes zero sense. this event is going to top out at like +1.8C I've seen weather vendors amplify this idea on the energy side too and they're getting run over right now because they're all too cold. Some people live solely inside the VP space as if it's the god particle that solves all weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 14 minutes ago, NittanyWx said: I've seen weather vendors amplify this idea on the energy side too and they're getting run over right now because they're all too cold. Some people live solely inside the VP space as if it's the god particle that solves all weather. could you explain this idea to me like im a 7 year old Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 1 minute ago, vegan_edible said: could you explain this idea to me like im a 7 year old We're in an El Nino, a strong one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 1 minute ago, NittanyWx said: We're in an El Nino, a strong one. perfect thank u 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 winter forecast: will it be cold?: probably will it snow?: probably is paranoia from winter '22/'23 running rampant?: 110%The thing is, like Brooklyn was trying to say, totally different setup from last winter with the El Niño. So it’s unlikely to mirror last year. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 Just now, WestBabylonWeather said: The thing is, like Brooklyn was trying to say, totally different setup from last winter with the El Niño. So it’s unlikely to mirror last year. . Understood completely. I mean, in the grand scheme of things, could it possibly be worse than last year? I even managed to get like 6 inches here in white plains, which by no means is good, but i think statistically it will have to snow this season 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 Understood completely. I mean, in the grand scheme of things, could it possibly be worse than last year? I even managed to get like 6 inches here in white plains, which by no means is good, but i think statistically it will have to snow this seasonVery rarely do we get two terrible years in a row. At least since 2002 I believe. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Very rarely do we get two terrible years in a row. At least since 2002 I believe. . True-have to go back to 1996 for a string of horrid years in a row 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 3 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said: The thing is, like Brooklyn was trying to say, totally different setup from last winter with the El Niño. So it’s unlikely to mirror last year. . We have been getting warmer than average to record warm winters in the Northeast since the super El Niño regardless of ENSO. So El Niño or La Niña may not be that relevant for our temperatures. Snowfall has been highly variable since the 90s with mostly all or nothing seasons. Unfortunately, last winter was one of the nothing seasons for snowfall. Mot much correlation between winter temperatures around NYC and ENSO. NYC Feb 23…+5.2 Jan 23…+9.8 Dec 22…-0.6 …………..+4.8……La Niña…2nd warmest winter Feb 22….+1.4 Jan 22….-3.2 Dec 21….+4.7 ……………..+1.0….La Niña Feb 21….-1.7 Jan 21….+1.1 Dec 20…+1.7 …………..+0.4……La Niña Feb 20…+4.8 Jan 20….+6.5 Dec 19….+0.8 …………….+4.0…..Neutral….7th warmest winter Feb 19….+0.9 Jan 19….-0.1 Dec 18…+2.6 …………….+1.1……Uncoupled El Niño Feb 18…+6.7 Jan 18….-0.9 Dec 17…..-2.5 …………….+1.1……La Niña Feb 17…..+6.3 Jan 17….+5.4 Dec 16….+0.8 …………….+4.2…..La Niña…6th warmest winter Feb 16….+2.4 Jan 16….+1.9 Dec 15….+13.3 …………….+5.9…..El Nino …2nd warmest winter 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 Watch early December for a snow event before we warm up. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 @bluewave what do u think it will take to get another 13-14 type winter regarding temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 32 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Watch early December for a snow event before we warm up. Huh? We are starting the month warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Huh? We are starting the month warm Doesn't mean it can't snow There is a chance with that wave around the 6th. The whole month doesn't look warm. 1 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 10 hours ago, Allsnow said: In winters past once the jet retracts the -epo pops to far west to favor cold in the east. This could be the case again for the second half of the month if the mjo slows in the warm phases, which is why I didn’t understand why people expected it to race through Funny thing is 18Z Op GFS shows that crazy AK/W Canada ridge again that is too far west for us usually at D16. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 4 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Very rarely do we get two terrible years in a row. At least since 2002 I believe. . But it's certainly more of a possibility as we've been warming recently, and I mean If you can get two great years in a row, the opposite is also true. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 34 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Funny thing is 18Z Op GFS shows that crazy AK/W Canada ridge again that is too far west for us usually at D16. That will be our two day artic outbreak around Christmas before the pac goes to crap again haha 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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