December 2023

[SnoSki14]

17 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Increasing signs of a torch Xmas to New Years

No torch just somewhat above normal

Greatest departures up north 

[snowman19]

Don posted briefly a while back about the 97/98 El nino fear. He was not predicting it at all, however what I am seeing on the ensembles looks pretty much like 97/98 w/r/t the trough off the west coast flooding the continent with Pacific air. 
That winter was a wall to wall warm washout, as the trough never moved, even with great blocking. History does repeat itself, and this is unfortunately a strong el nino which usually are warm and below average snowfall for our area. We went from la ninas to a strong El nino which is unfortunate, especially if we go to a strong la Nina again next winter LOL. It really really feels like when I grew up.
For snowfall enthusiast, we need that feature to retrograde and it can indeed be a productive winter. Something to watch on the ensembles. Fingers crossed.

The MJO was actually in phase 8 back in January of 1998. It didn’t help

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The MJO was actually in phase 8 back in January of 1998. It didn’t help

Correct, the trough off the west coast was too persistent. I remember benchmark after benchmark track and rain. I honestly thought it was never going to snow again after that winter lol.

Also it's a reminder that strong El ninos are not snowy for us.

[WX-PA]

9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

No torch just somewhat above normal

Greatest departures up north 

PNA looks possible for Christmas week..trough in the east ridge in the west. Problem is no real cold air. So yea might be a little above normal..chances of snow that week are mininal but not impossible. But as of now it won't be a blow torch.

[WX-PA]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Correct, the trough off the west coast was too persistent. I remember benchmark after benchmark track and rain. I honestly thought it was never going to snow again after that winter lol.

Also it's a reminder that strong El ninos are not snowy for us.

Don't tell that to people in Feb 83 and Jan 06.

[Allsnow]

Latest OLR maps have strongest convection in p7 to end the month. The overall mjo looks very weak to start January (this can change quickly) so idk how much of a response we will get if we make it into the colder phases 

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Don posted briefly a while back about the 97/98 El nino fear. He was not predicting it at all, however what I am seeing on the ensembles looks pretty much like 97/98 w/r/t the trough off the west coast flooding the continent with Pacific air. 

That winter was a wall to wall warm washout, as the trough never moved, even with great blocking. History does repeat itself, and this is unfortunately a strong el nino which usually are warm and below average snowfall for our area. We went from la ninas to a strong El nino which is unfortunate, especially if we go to a strong la Nina again next winter LOL. It really really feels like when I grew up.

For snowfall enthusiast, we need that feature to retrograde and it can indeed be a productive winter. Something to watch on the ensembles. Fingers crossed.

The 97-98 winter wasn’t really that warm compared to our recent warmest winters since 11-12.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2001-2002	41.5	0
2	2022-2023	41.0	0
-	2015-2016	41.0	0
3	2011-2012	40.5	0
4	1931-1932	40.1	0
5	1997-1998	39.6	0
6	2016-2017	39.3	0
7	2019-2020	39.2	0
8	1990-1991	39.1	0
9	1998-1999	38.6	0
10	1948-1949	38.5	0

 

 

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Latest OLR maps have strongest convection in p7 to end the month. The overall mjo looks very weak to start January (this can change quickly) so idk how much of a response we will get if we make it into the colder phases 

It looks like all El Niño standing wave convection running the show going into January after the MJO moves strongly into phase 7 then dissipates. This is typical of strong ENSO events once they take over the forcing….the MJO stays largely quiet

[Volcanic Winter]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Latest OLR maps have strongest convection in p7 to end the month. The overall mjo looks very weak to start January (this can change quickly) so idk how much of a response we will get if we make it into the colder phases 

There were a couple posts in the El Niño thread showing that the MJO near or inside the COD essentially all the way around was correlated better to BN conditions in the east. Obviously there are other factors, just that most BN periods here showed an MJO inside or near the circle (left side ofc was better but there were plots all the way around).

Was very interesting but I don’t know enough to interpret it further or how that gets modulated by other aspects of the hemispheric pattern. So take with grain of salt. 

[donsutherland1]

8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Don posted briefly a while back about the 97/98 El nino fear. He was not predicting it at all, however what I am seeing on the ensembles looks pretty much like 97/98 w/r/t the trough off the west coast flooding the continent with Pacific air. 

That winter was a wall to wall warm washout, as the trough never moved, even with great blocking. History does repeat itself, and this is unfortunately a strong el nino which usually are warm and below average snowfall for our area. We went from la ninas to a strong El nino which is unfortunate, especially if we go to a strong la Nina again next winter LOL. It really really feels like when I grew up.

For snowfall enthusiast, we need that feature to retrograde and it can indeed be a productive winter. Something to watch on the ensembles. Fingers crossed.

1997-98 is one example where Phase 8 was very warm in the East. I still don't think that Winter 2023-24 will be 1997-98 2.0. I do think that the long-range guidance has two big issues: sticks with continuity through weeks 5-6 too often or rushes pattern changes. I think this time around, we're facing the latter scenario.

It increasingly appears that a transition is more likely to occur during the first week of January than last week of December. The Pacific jet streak that is forecast to develop is consistent with what has happened in past moderate or strong El Niño events and the MJO's passage through Phases 5-7 at a high amplitude.

Things still working in our favor for improvement:

1. Weakening stratospheric polar vortex (favors Atlantic blocking, which has often been the case following the development of strong blocking during the last week of November--basically suggests a tendency toward what has occurred in the past). A major stratospheric warming event would be helpful for the second half of winter, but that's still a less than 50% probability. Model skill is very low beyond a week or so on these events.

2. There remains a hint that a "Greenland High" pattern could try to develop in early January. That pattern would favor troughing across the CONUS, including the East.

The 12/9 ECMWF weeklies continued to show improvement for the first week of January.

Potential issues:

1. The Greenland High pattern never fully develops

2. The stratospheric polar vortex begins to recover after weakening into early January (the latest forecast has pulled back somewhat on the magnitude of weakening)

3. Adverse impacts of multiple ongoing marine heatwaves (highest degree of uncertainty)

The 12/9 CFSv2 weeklies have shifted to show a continuation of the warmth during the first week of January

Even as there are some risks, I believe January will see some opportunities. I don't see any extreme cold shots through the end of December. I also don't buy into the "Snowmaggedon" pattern one Twitter/X account has suggested.

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

Don't tell that to people in Feb 83 and Jan 06.

Yes there is always that knock-out punch in an El nino, however in general our area is warm and receives below average snowfall.

That being said, 97/98 is probably a 1 in 50 year risk and probably happened in 1890 last time lol. Unlikely we wait till March like that year.

Full disclosure I am not predicting anything, I leave that up to the METS. Just seeing similarities to 97/98 w/r/t the "one eyed pig" off the west coast.

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 97-98 winter wasn’t really that warm compared to our recent warmest winters since 11-12.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2001-2002	41.5	0
2	2022-2023	41.0	0
-	2015-2016	41.0	0
3	2011-2012	40.5	0
4	1931-1932	40.1	0
5	1997-1998	39.6	0
6	2016-2017	39.3	0
7	2019-2020	39.2	0
8	1990-1991	39.1	0
9	1998-1999	38.6	0
10	1948-1949	38.5	0

 

 

I think our temps with be very similar to 97/98, albeit a degree or 2 warmer, if we keep blocking with numerous rain events capping daily high temps.

 

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

There were a couple posts in the El Niño thread showing that the MJO near or inside the COD essentially all the way around was correlated better to BN conditions in the east. Obviously there are other factors, just that most BN periods here showed an MJO inside or near the circle (left side ofc was better but there were plots all the way around).

Was very interesting but I don’t know enough to interpret it further or how that gets modulated by other aspects of the hemispheric pattern. So take with grain of salt. 

Yeah, if the mjo is that weak then something else will be the driving factor. Currently, we don’t have any forecasting tool that goes out that far in the future. We can use the weeklys but their accuracy is suspect. 
 

If the MJO is indeed that weak to start January it will probably come down to where the low by AK positions itself 

[EastonSN+]

7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

1997-98 is one example where Phase 8 was very warm in the East. I still don't think that Winter 2023-24 will be 1997-98 2.0. I do think that the long-range guidance has two big issues: sticks with continuity through weeks 5-6 too often or rushes pattern changes. I think this time around, we're facing the latter scenario.

It increasingly appears that a transition is more likely to occur during the first week of January than last week of December. The Pacific jet streak that is forecast to develop is consistent with what has happened in past moderate or strong El Niño events and the MJO's passage through Phases 5-7 at a high amplitude.

Things still working in our favor for improvement:

1. Weakening stratospheric polar vortex (favors Atlantic blocking, which has often been the case following the development of strong blocking during the last week of November--basically suggests a tendency toward what has occurred in the past). A major stratospheric warming event would be helpful for the second half of winter, but that's still a less than 50% probability. Model skill is very low beyond a week or so on these events.

2. There remains a hint that a "Greenland High" pattern could try to develop in early January. That pattern would favor troughing across the CONUS, including the East.

The 12/9 ECMWF weeklies continued to show improvement for the first week of January.

Potential issues:

1. The Greenland High pattern never fully develops

2. The stratospheric polar vortex begins to recover after weakening into early January (the latest forecast has pulled back somewhat on the magnitude of weakening)

3. Adverse impacts of multiple ongoing marine heatwaves (highest degree of uncertainty)

The 12/9 CFSv2 weeklies have shifted to show a continuation of the warmth during the first week of January

Even as there are some risks, I believe January will see some opportunities. I don't see any extreme cold shots through the end of December. I also don't buy into the "Snowmaggedon" pattern one Twitter/X account has suggested.

Thanks Don! I hope I never have to experience that winter again in my lifetime, ranks at the very bottom of my list. 

[vegan_edible]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah, if the mjo is that weak then something else will be the driving factor. Currently, we don’t have any forecasting tool that goes out that far in the future. We can use the weeklys but their accuracy is suspect. 
 

If the MJO is indeed that weak to start January it will probably come down to where the low by AK positions itself 

im praying at this point. we cant do 2 crapper winters in a row

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

im praying at this point. we cant do 2 crapper winters in a row

Agreed. What keeps me going is the fact that I had to go through 2 periods in the late 80s and late 90s with FOUR STRAIGHT crappy winters in a row. So, even if this year is a dud, better winters are ahead.

 

[Blue Dream]

Warm trolls are out in full force this morning 

[donsutherland1]

The final chart following last season for NYC's warmest and least snowy winters. The score is the combined standard deviation from the historic DJF temperature and seasonal snowfall means.

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The final chart following last season for NYC's warmest and least snowy winters. The score is the combined standard deviation from the historic DJF temperature and seasonal snowfall means.

Thanks Don, it's crazy that 3 years on that list were in the late 90s. What a horrible stretch that was.

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks Don! I hope I never have to experience that winter again in my lifetime, ranks at the very bottom of my list. 

At least 97-98 had a nice snowstorm at the end which NYC didn’t get last winter. So it lived up to a weaker version of the backloaded El Niño expectations. 
 

Data for March 22, 1998 through March 22, 1998
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Total Snowfall
NJ	GREENWOOD LAKE	COOP	7.0
NY	YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W	COOP	7.0
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	6.0
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	6.0
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	5.0
NJ	WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM	COOP	4.8
NJ	RINGWOOD	COOP	4.8
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	4.5
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	4.5
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	4.5
NY	WEST NYACK	COOP	4.5
NY	MINEOLA 1 NE	COOP	4.2
NJ	MIDLAND PARK	COOP	4.0
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	3.7
NY	DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	3.5
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	3.5
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	3.1
NY	WALDEN 1 ESE	COOP	3.0
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	2.9
NY	NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN	COOP	2.8
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	2.5
NJ	WAYNE	COOP	2.5
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	2.3
NY	RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	2.0
NY	ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	1.6

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

At least 97-98 had a nice snowstorm at the end which NYC didn’t get last winter. So it lived up to a weaker version of the backloaded El Niño expectations. 
 

Data for March 22, 1998 through March 22, 1998
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Total Snowfall
NJ	GREENWOOD LAKE	COOP	7.0
NY	YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W	COOP	7.0
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	6.0
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	6.0
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	5.0
NJ	WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM	COOP	4.8
NJ	RINGWOOD	COOP	4.8
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	4.5
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	4.5
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	4.5
NY	WEST NYACK	COOP	4.5
NY	MINEOLA 1 NE	COOP	4.2
NJ	MIDLAND PARK	COOP	4.0
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	3.7
NY	DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	3.5
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	3.5
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	3.1
NY	WALDEN 1 ESE	COOP	3.0
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	2.9
NY	NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN	COOP	2.8
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	2.5
NJ	WAYNE	COOP	2.5
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	2.3
NY	RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	2.0
NY	ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	1.6

I remember that storm as an overnight surprise? I believe mostly rain was forecasted?

[vegan_edible]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I remember that storm as an overnight surprise? I believe mostly rain was forecasted?

i somehow snagged like 5 inches last year feb 27th. i think we can score something this year

[Stormlover74]

18 minutes ago, Blue Dream said:

Warm trolls are out in full force this morning 

Nah

To troll: make a deliberately offensive or provocative online post with the aim of upsetting someone or eliciting an angry response from them.

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I remember that storm as an overnight surprise? I believe mostly rain was forecasted?

Yes there was maybe a mention of ending as some wet snow but no accumulations were predicted

[forkyfork]

nino climo says any pattern change waits until mid to late january 

[snowman19]

I remember that storm as an overnight surprise? I believe mostly rain was forecasted?

Like Don just pointed out, the 97-98 winter actually was not a torch, it was just a little too warm to snow because the Aleutian Low was displaced way east and the +EPO floodgates were wide open, PAC jet was raging for months. The AO/NAO were not horrible either. We were just inundated with Pacific maritime air. The MJO waves in phase 8 were of no help either

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Like Don just pointed out, the 97-98 winter actually was not a torch, it was just a little too warm to snow because the Aleutian Low was displaced way east and the +EPO floodgates were wide open, PAC jet was raging for months. The AO/NAO were not horrible either. We were just inundated with Pacific maritime air. The MJO waves in phase 8 were of no help either

Yeah, December 1997 actually started out much cooler than this December.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Dec 9	Missing Count
2023-12-09	45.4	0
2022-12-09	45.4	0
2021-12-09	43.2	0
2020-12-09	40.3	0
2019-12-09	37.5	0
2018-12-09	38.0	0
2017-12-09	43.9	0
2016-12-09	42.5	0
2015-12-09	47.4	0
2014-12-09	40.7	0
2013-12-09	42.8	0
2012-12-09	45.4	0
2011-12-09	47.6	0
2010-12-09	35.1	0
2009-12-09	43.0	0
2008-12-09	37.3	0
2007-12-09	32.8	0
2006-12-09	38.6	0
2005-12-09	33.2	0
2004-12-09	43.8	0
2003-12-09	30.9	0
2002-12-09	30.6	0
2001-12-09	53.1	0
2000-12-09	32.1	0
1999-12-09	45.8	0
1998-12-09	56.2	0
1997-12-09	39.2	0

[EastonSN+]

22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Like Don just pointed out, the 97-98 winter actually was not a torch, it was just a little too warm to snow because the Aleutian Low was displaced way east and the +EPO floodgates were wide open, PAC jet was raging for months. The AO/NAO were not horrible either. We were just inundated with Pacific maritime air. The MJO waves in phase 8 were of no help either

Yup. I do not have the map for 1997 however that low off the west coast will pump the PAC air.

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, December 1997 actually started out much cooler than this December.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Dec 9	Missing Count
2023-12-09	45.4	0
2022-12-09	45.4	0
2021-12-09	43.2	0
2020-12-09	40.3	0
2019-12-09	37.5	0
2018-12-09	38.0	0
2017-12-09	43.9	0
2016-12-09	42.5	0
2015-12-09	47.4	0
2014-12-09	40.7	0
2013-12-09	42.8	0
2012-12-09	45.4	0
2011-12-09	47.6	0
2010-12-09	35.1	0
2009-12-09	43.0	0
2008-12-09	37.3	0
2007-12-09	32.8	0
2006-12-09	38.6	0
2005-12-09	33.2	0
2004-12-09	43.8	0
2003-12-09	30.9	0
2002-12-09	30.6	0
2001-12-09	53.1	0
2000-12-09	32.1	0
1999-12-09	45.8	0
1998-12-09	56.2	0
1997-12-09	39.2	0

I never realized how warm December 1998 was to this point!!

I wonder what the November temp departure was comparing this year to November 1997.

Given how ridiculously warm December 1998 was to this point, I wonder how many days of cloud cover and precip there was in 1997? Perhaps that lead to a cooler 1997 December. Or our November pattern this year may have been delayed in 1997, therefore pushing the warmer departures a few days later.

 

[Stormlover74]

There was a storm pre Christmas of 97 that was a snow threat but trended warmer as we got closer. I think it started as a little sleet. Then we had that slushy snow around the 28th and a frigid new years eve before hitting 70 a few days later