December 2023

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, WX-PA said:

You left out a few White Christmas 1962..snowed on Christmas day. 1969 snowed on Christmas night, and the biggie 2002..5 inches Christmas day and night!

 

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

2002 was the best in my life. IMBY received 9.

 

28 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

2016 was also a white Christmas from most of the region. If you were on Long Island or New York City, you had grass, but the rest of us had snow cover.

Keep in mind this is just official White Christmas is at New York City. And that would be the snow depth at 7am. 

 

Like all things in weather, stats have to stay consistent even if they don't make perfect sense every time. If the ground is bare at 7am but a snowstorm starts at noon, it's still not a white Christmas. If its raining with snowcover at 7am and that snow is washed away by 10am, it's still a white Christmas.

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

If we can get the trough to retrograde a little we can hopefully shunt the maritime air a bit.

Main issue is that trough in the Southeast is filled with mild Pacific air following the big jet extension. 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Early clouds gave way to sunshine and the temperature soared to 59 degrees.

 

[donsutherland1]

The temperature soared to 59° in New York City and Newark today. Tomorrow will likely see the temperature rise into the 60s in many parts of the region as a strengthening storm brings unseasonably warm air into the region.

A significant rainfall is likely tomorrow into Monday. A general 1.50"-2.50" rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely. Strong southeasterly winds will gust past 40 mph. Coastal flooding and beach erosion are likely. The strong winds could bring down limbs and even some trees. Thunderstorms are possible as the cold front pushes across the region late tomorrow or early Monday. The rain will likely end as a period of wet snow or flurries north and west of New York City. New York City could see some snowflakes, as well.

A cooler period will follow the storm. However, temperatures could again rise to above and perhaps much above normal levels as the winter solstice approaches. No Arctic air appears likely through at least the first three weeks of December and possibly the entire month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.0°C for the week centered around November 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.87°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen somewhat further this month.  

The SOI was -20.66 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.186 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January.

On December 7 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.732 (RMM). The December 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.736 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 68% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 40.8° (1.7° above normal).

 

[binbisso]

30 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

If we can get the trough to retrograde a little we can hopefully shunt the maritime air a bit.

Yes. Give me all The Pacific puke air all you want in late December and especially January just keep that trough beneath us. There's snow in the forecast just Northwest of all the big cities this weekend. Reading this forum that would seem impossible.

[bluewave]

24 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 

 

Keep in mind this is just official White Christmas is at New York City. And that would be the snow depth at 7am. 

 

Like all things in weather, stats have to stay consistent even if they don't make perfect sense every time. If the ground is bare at 7am but a snowstorm starts at noon, it's still not a white Christmas. If its raining with snowcover at 7am and that snow is washed away by 10am, it's still a white Christmas.

The 5 day period around St. Patrick’s Day since 2011 has been much snowier in NYC than the five day period around Christmas. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Mar 12 to Mar 22	Missing Count
2022-03-22	T	0
2021-03-22	T	0
2020-03-22	0.0	0
2019-03-22	0.0	0
2018-03-22	8.4	0
2017-03-22	7.6	0
2016-03-22	0.5	0
2015-03-22	4.5	0
2014-03-22	0.0	0
2013-03-22	3.3	0
2012-03-22	0.0	0
2011-03-22	T	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Dec 20 to Dec 30	Missing Count
2022-12-30	T	0
2021-12-30	0.2	0
2020-12-30	T	0
2019-12-30	T	0
2018-12-30	T	0
2017-12-30	0.7	0
2016-12-30	T	0
2015-12-30	T	0
2014-12-30	T	0
2013-12-30	T	0
2012-12-30	0.4	0
2011-12-30	0.0	0

 

 

[coastalplainsnowman]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

2002 was the best in my life. IMBY received 9.

2002 was great - no doubt - never seen rain go over to snow and accumulate on *everything* like that did

However, 1983 takes the cake for me.  Granted, just enough snow to cover the grass and street, but check out the high temperatures from that day.  Christmas Eve's high temp was just past midnight in the 20s.  Fell through the day down to 5 on Christmas Eve night, and didn't get out of the mid teens on Christmas.  Awesome.  One year prior we were outside in short sleeves on Christmas Eve 1982..

[psv88]

4 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

I think it makes sense. Please do not respond to my posts anymore I will be sure to block yours. 

The fact that you have to respond to me with "makes sense" shows your maturity, and if you are an adult I feel bad for you.

Leave me alone. 

 

Speaking of snowflakes

[psv88]

2 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

2002 was great - no doubt - never seen rain go over to snow and accumulate on *everything* like that did

However, 1983 takes the cake for me.  Granted, just enough snow to cover the grass and street, but check out the high temperatures from that day.  Christmas Eve's high temp was just past midnight in the 20s.  Fell through the day down to 5 on Christmas Eve night, and didn't get out of the mid teens on Christmas.  Awesome.  One year prior we were outside in short sleeves on Christmas Eve 1982..

2002 was incredible. Remember driving to JFK from Suffolk and the rain turned to snow right at the airport. Drive back east and it was still rain. Had dinner and an hour later it was dumping snow. I think we got 9-10” out here. 

[psv88]

4 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

Since politicians make policy, those that want to do something about it must speak about it. When they don't, their voters get angry.

Right. In order for any policy to be implemented, a law needs to be passed, and for a law to pass it legally must be debated by our representatives before a vote can take place. 

would be impossible for anything to happen if politicians were forbidden from discussing topics. 
 

 

[vegan_edible]

https://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/elibrary/2022/20281-investigating-biases-representation-pacific-sub-tropical-jet-stream-and-associated.pdf

good stuff for anyone else who is new to the idea of how the mjo influences the pacific jetstream

[Rmine1]

48 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Right. In order for any policy to be implemented, a law needs to be passed, and for a law to pass it legally must be debated by our representatives before a vote can take place. 

would be impossible for anything to happen if politicians were forbidden from discussing topics. 
 

 

Are you both living in alternate universe? Nothing about the current state of the country supports the argument that politicians listen to anything their constituents say. It’s true for both parties. They’re bought and owned by the lobbyists/donors, and dare not push back against the deep state. 
 

I’d love to see a recent enacted law that was debated legally and ultimately passed into law. On a federal level 

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Speaking of snowflakes

If you have a problem with me, message me directly and we can settle it. Internet muscles I see.

Also, what do you mean by snowflake? Are you insinuating something? 

Finally, bullying is not acceptable in today's world. You are truly a sad human being.

I also reported both of your posts. 

 

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

If you have a problem with me, message me directly and we can settle it. Internet muscles I see.

Also, what do you mean by snowflake? Are you insinuating something? 

Finally, bullying is not acceptable in today's world. You are truly a sad human being.

I also reported both of your posts. 

 

Just ignore him 

[Rjay]

Relax guys.    

If you want to argue about idiot politicians go to OT.  

[bluewave]

22 hours ago, WX-PA said:

December 65,,no snow mild,December 72, no snow mild, December 82, no snow mild,December 86, no snow mild, December 97, no snow mild, December 2015, no snow.mild. There are your strong nino Decembers in the last 60 years. Plain and simple.

While our warmest December by far was during the 2015 super El Niño, Decembers have been warm regardless of El Niño or La Niña. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	ENSO
1	2015	50.8	El Niño
2	2001	44.1	Neutral following 3 year La Niña
3	2021	43.8	La Niña
4	1984	43.7	La Niña
5	2006	43.6	El Niño
6	2011	43.3	La Niña
7	1998	43.1	La Niña
8	1982	42.7	El Niño
9	1990	42.6	Neutral
10	1891	42.5	Neutral
11	1994	42.2	El Niño
12	1923	42.0	El Niño
13	2012	41.5	Neutral
14	1996	41.3	Neutral
-	1953	41.3	El Niño
15	1979	41.1	El Nino
16	1956	40.9	Neutral
-	1931	40.9	Neutral
17	1971	40.8	La Niña
18	2014	40.5	El Niño
-	1965	40.5	El Niño
19	1957	40.2	El Niño
20	2018	40.1	Uncoupled El Niño

[Allsnow]

Feels like April outside currently 

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Feels like April outside currently 

That Pacific Trough will be off the charts for the 2nd half of December.

 

 

[Allsnow]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That Pacific Trough will be off the charts for the 2nd half of December.

 

 

Going to take a while to reverse this awful airmass for the second half of December. If this was the end of January winter might be over 

[SnoSki14]

10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Going to take a while to reverse this awful airmass for the second half of December. If this was the end of January winter might be over 

I wonder if we'll have another snowless winter

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I wonder if we'll have another snowless winter

That would be a huge bust by many who predict an active January and February  

[donsutherland1]

Some week ahead numbers:

Note: The ECMWF ensembles are very likely exaggerating the probabilities of 1" or above and 2" or above snowfall in Washington, DC, all of which are from the storm that will impact the region today into tomorrow. The low temperature forecast for Washington, DC that is two sigma below the NBE estimate is 34°. Since 1884 when daily snowfall recordkeeping began, Washington, DC has seen only 6 measurable snow events when the December low temperature was 34° or above. The mean snowfall for such events was 0.4" and the median snowfall was 0.3". The highest such snowfall was 1.2" on December 15, 1981. There were two cases among them that followed a high temperature of 50° or above, as will occur this time around: December 24, 1911 (prior high: 52°; snowfall: 0.1") and December 16, 2019 (prior high: 57°; snowfall: 0.1"). Therefore, 0.5" or less seems far more likely than what is implied by the ECMWF ensemble members.

 

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Going to take a while to reverse this awful airmass for the second half of December. If this was the end of January winter might be over 

We knew the models were going to go into full push back mode with the cooler temperatures in late December once they saw how strong this MJO and jet extension was going to be.

Dec 25-Jan 1

New run

 

Old run 

[WX-PA]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I wonder if we'll have another snowless winter

The airmass could still be marginal for snow even in December.I would find it virtually impossible for us not to get snow again for another year. Winter officially didn't even begin yet.

[WX-PA]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We knew the models were going to go into full push back mode with the cooler temperatures in late December once they saw how strong this MJO and jet extension was going to be.

Dec 25-Jan 1

New run

 

Old run 

All that red you are showing, what is the actual departure for the last week of December?

[qg_omega]

51 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That Pacific Trough will be off the charts for the 2nd half of December.

 

 

Increasing signs of a torch Xmas to New Years

[suzook]

I see people giving up on winter already. The seasons have been a month to 6 weeks late the last few years. Winter will arrive sometime in January, and probably last into early "spring"

[snowman19]

We knew the models were going to go into full push back mode with the cooler temperatures in late December once they saw how strong this MJO and jet extension was going to be.
Dec 25-Jan 1
New run

 
Old run 

Several of us suspected this robust MJO was going to couple with the El Nino standing wave and slow down

[EastonSN+]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We knew the models were going to go into full push back mode with the cooler temperatures in late December once they saw how strong this MJO and jet extension was going to be.

Dec 25-Jan 1

New run

 

Old run 

Don posted briefly a while back about the 97/98 El nino fear. He was not predicting it at all, however what I am seeing on the ensembles looks pretty much like 97/98 w/r/t the trough off the west coast flooding the continent with Pacific air. 

That winter was a wall to wall warm washout, as the trough never moved, even with great blocking. History does repeat itself, and this is unfortunately a strong el nino which usually are warm and below average snowfall for our area. We went from la ninas to a strong El nino which is unfortunate, especially if we go to a strong la Nina again next winter LOL. It really really feels like when I grew up.

For snowfall enthusiast, we need that feature to retrograde and it can indeed be a productive winter. Something to watch on the ensembles. Fingers crossed.

[Uniblab]

16 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Increasing signs of a torch Xmas to New Years

I'll get my outdoor grill ready for the holidays.