December 2023

[michsnowfreak]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks for this, also proves that the 90s were really warm and the 80s were not "frigid".

No problem. The 1990s were nyc warmest winter decade on record. You can make assumptions about the 2020s but the decade isnt even half over. So thats a no.

 

For Detroit, the 1990s were also our warmest winters on record (followed by the 1950s, 1930s, THEN the 2010s). They were the least snowcovered decade on record, and 4th least snowiest decade on record (again, 2010s were the snowiest). 1990s also had the least white Christmases for Detroit. So anyone wants to go back to the good old 1990s or 1950s....have fun! 

[weatherpruf]

4 hours ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said:

What were the follow months like in those years JFM? Just curious.

Feb 83 and Jan 87 had pretty good blizzards. And each was the only one for years.....87 not really touched again until March 93.....that's how long you can go without big snows. 

[weatherpruf]

3 hours ago, North and West said:

In Florida the past few days. 74° and sunny right now, going to 80° today.

Flying home tonight prior to the storm. Beautiful here. I understand why people snowbird.


.

Just be sure to outta there by April....

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

There are a lot of people pushing political agendas a well unfortunately.

Climate change is not a political agenda. Nature doesn't care about politics.

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

dec 82 had a 2-4" event

It was mostly slush as I remember it. Yeah, I was around back then, and an adult.....

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

I seem to recall an event in December 86 where the interior cashed in but closer to the coast we had nothing. It was also a very warm rainy Christmas eve/day that year. But 3rd week of January thru March was very solid 

86 was almost snowless. Had a dusting or so in March. Had started the flounder season in the bay already, last week of Feb. 

[EastonSN+]

20 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Climate change is not a political agenda. Nature doesn't care about politics.

100%! Yet we see it far too often.

[WX-PA]

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

86 was almost snowless. Had a dusting or so in March. Had started the flounder season in the bay already, last week of Feb. 

We are talking about Jan-March 87..it was not snowless..we had several snow events..Nothing big but it felt like winter.

[leo2000]

3 hours ago, Rjay said:

Bluewave has no bias imo. 

Snowski does this stuff every year lol 

Bluewave shows warm anomalies across the country doesn't mean it can't snow. What you don't see there is the actual surface temperatures. 

[North and West]

Just be sure to outta there by April....

On our way to the airport now!


.

[North and West]

It was mostly slush as I remember it. Yeah, I was around back then, and an adult.....

.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I was just posting decadal stats for a perspective of the good and the bad. I dont know what is/isnt well-documented for you guys as I dont live in nyc & only browse other subforums (lakes is my sub) when its boring (and it is boring now!). My interest was just piqued enough to check stats after the tone of some posts here recently lol. Theres definitely more of a winter warming trend in Nyc than Detroit (Detroit winters have only warmed 2.0F since 1870 and 1.3F the last 100 years, while snowfall has increased some...NYC winters have warmed 5.4F since 1870 and 3.5F the last 100 years), but since nyc has never been a climate of sustained winter anyway, the warmer temps and increased moisture may continue to be a boon to snowlovers during the feast years.

 

For snowlovers, no more brutal a stretch was seen for NYC than this one, 6 consecutive sub-20" winters:

1949-1950: 14.0    
1950-1951: 9.3    
1951-1952: 19.7    
1952-1953: 15.1    
1953-1954: 15.8    
1954-1955: 11.5

 

White Christmases since 1912:

1912, 1917, 1919, 1929, 1930, 1945, 1947, 1948, 1959, 1960, 1961, 1963, 1966, 1983, 1995, 2009.

Interesting that...

5 of 33 Christmases from 1912-1944 were white (15%)

8 of 22 Christmases from 1945-1966 were white (36%)

3 of 56 Christmases from 1967-2022 were white (5%)

So the 14% probability of a white christmas is actually probably skewed high from an unsually good period 1945-66.

The greatest winter warming over the last 75 year has been in the Upper Midwest. The good news for Great Lakes snow lovers is that the warmer lakes staying open longer are producing heavier lake effect snows. But the bad news is that the ice fishing season is getting shorter across the Upper Midwest.
 

 

 

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

Climate change is not a political agenda. Nature doesn't care about politics.

Also, and last point as it's a no no to raise politics, climate change should never be uttered by any politician for either stance.

[WX-PA]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I was just posting decadal stats for a perspective of the good and the bad. I dont know what is/isnt well-documented for you guys as I dont live in nyc & only browse other subforums (lakes is my sub) when its boring (and it is boring now!). My interest was just piqued enough to check stats after the tone of some posts here recently lol. Theres definitely more of a winter warming trend in Nyc than Detroit (Detroit winters have only warmed 2.0F since 1870 and 1.3F the last 100 years, while snowfall has increased some...NYC winters have warmed 5.4F since 1870 and 3.5F the last 100 years), but since nyc has never been a climate of sustained winter anyway, the warmer temps and increased moisture may continue to be a boon to snowlovers during the feast years.

 

For snowlovers, no more brutal a stretch was seen for NYC than this one, 6 consecutive sub-20" winters:

1949-1950: 14.0    
1950-1951: 9.3    
1951-1952: 19.7    
1952-1953: 15.1    
1953-1954: 15.8    
1954-1955: 11.5

 

White Christmases since 1912:

1912, 1917, 1919, 1929, 1930, 1945, 1947, 1948, 1959, 1960, 1961, 1963, 1966, 1983, 1995, 2009.

Interesting that...

5 of 33 Christmases from 1912-1944 were white (15%)

8 of 22 Christmases from 1945-1966 were white (36%)

3 of 56 Christmases from 1967-2022 were white (5%)

So the 14% probability of a white christmas is actually probably skewed high from an unsually good period 1945-66.

You left out a few White Christmas 1962..snowed on Christmas day. 1969 snowed on Christmas night, and the biggie 2002..5 inches Christmas day and night!

[EastonSN+]

Just now, WX-PA said:

You left out a few White Christmas 1962..snowed on Christmas day. 1969 snowed on Christmas night, and the biggie 2002..5 inches Christmas day and night!

2002 was the best in my life. IMBY received 9.

[bluewave]

36 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

Bluewave shows warm anomalies across the country doesn't mean it can't snow. What you don't see there is the actual surface temperatures. 

I never said that it can’t snow. But those warm anomalies have resulted in North American snow cover dipping to decadal lows for early December. 
 

 

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

This would work. A bit east based but this is a 7 day h5 anomaly- it does evolve to a Baffin block for a time. Again, my wag is we see relatively short lived negative NAO episodes, but good enough with the persistent STJ tossing waves our way. Surely we can time something.

Great post by Cape.

[psv88]

16 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Also, and last point as it's a no no to raise politics, climate change should never be uttered by any politician for either stance.

So a gag order on one of most important issues facing humanity? Because some peoples feelings might get hurt?

 

makes sense. 

[Roger Smith]

Extension of map of recent winter warming into central and n Canada would likely display similar values into arctic islands. At Cambridge Bay on Victoria Island, average of coldest winter mo is up from -35 C to -32 C comparing 1991-2020 data to 1961-1990. Summers are about 1 C warmer now. Snow free season was mid-June to early September and is now late may to mid-September at location (near 70 N). It's a similar story at Resolute located about 500 miles n.e. in central arctic islands. Warming in region not quite as pronounced as data from Svalbard or n Russia but about 2/3 as extreme. Even so, a lot of variability year to year, NWPassage opens up to recreational sailing vessels about 3/4 of summers now but a few recent years were "no passage" -- normally if July means exceed 9 C at YCB and 5 C at YRB, NWPassage will open, and if not, ice will clog straits all of Aug-Sep (normal open season). Back in mid-20century it was considered rare for NWPassage to become ice free. 

[the_other_guy]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I was just posting decadal stats for a perspective of the good and the bad. I dont know what is/isnt well-documented for you guys as I dont live in nyc & only browse other subforums (lakes is my sub) when its boring (and it is boring now!). My interest was just piqued enough to check stats after the tone of some posts here recently lol. Theres definitely more of a winter warming trend in Nyc than Detroit (Detroit winters have only warmed 2.0F since 1870 and 1.3F the last 100 years, while snowfall has increased some...NYC winters have warmed 5.4F since 1870 and 3.5F the last 100 years), but since nyc has never been a climate of sustained winter anyway, the warmer temps and increased moisture may continue to be a boon to snowlovers during the feast years.

 

For snowlovers, no more brutal a stretch was seen for NYC than this one, 6 consecutive sub-20" winters:

1949-1950: 14.0    
1950-1951: 9.3    
1951-1952: 19.7    
1952-1953: 15.1    
1953-1954: 15.8    
1954-1955: 11.5

 

White Christmases since 1912:

1912, 1917, 1919, 1929, 1930, 1945, 1947, 1948, 1959, 1960, 1961, 1963, 1966, 1983, 1995, 2009.

Interesting that...

5 of 33 Christmases from 1912-1944 were white (15%)

8 of 22 Christmases from 1945-1966 were white (36%)

3 of 56 Christmases from 1967-2022 were white (5%)

So the 14% probability of a white christmas is actually probably skewed high from an unsually good period 1945-66.

2016 was also a white Christmas from most of the region. If you were on Long Island or New York City, you had grass, but the rest of us had snow cover.

[EastonSN+]

17 minutes ago, psv88 said:

So a gag order on one of most important issues facing humanity? Because some peoples feelings might get hurt?

 

makes sense. 

I think it makes sense. Please do not respond to my posts anymore I will be sure to block yours. 

The fact that you have to respond to me with "makes sense" shows your maturity, and if you are an adult I feel bad for you.

Leave me alone. 

 

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, WX-PA said:

We are talking about Jan-March 87..it was not snowless..we had several snow events..Nothing big but it felt like winter.

Yes jan 87 featured a blockbuster, actually two one in north Jersey one in south Jersey. i was stuck on 287 for 5 hours in the Jan 87 storm; never saw snow come down like that in my life.

[weatherpruf]

31 minutes ago, psv88 said:

So a gag order on one of most important issues facing humanity? Because some peoples feelings might get hurt?

 

makes sense. 

Since politicians make policy, those that want to do something about it must speak about it. When they don't, their voters get angry.

[EastonSN+]

Decent cold shot close to the holidays which will be festive.

 

[EastonSN+]

If we can get the trough to retrograde a little we can hopefully shunt the maritime air a bit.

[EastonSN+]

A bit better....

[EastonSN+]

One piece of the puzzle which we need and typical in an El nino.

 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The greatest winter warming over the last 75 year has been in the Upper Midwest. The good news for Great Lakes snow lovers is that the warmer lakes staying open longer are producing heavier lake effect snows. But the bad news is that the ice fishing season is getting shorter across the Upper Midwest.
 

 

 

The upper midwest is so ridiculously cold I don't think they mind lol. Although they have also had cold anomalies in recent winters. Detroit winters warmed 1.7° in that span (the map has 2-3 but I'm sure its not expected to be perfect) but again that's more than the 100 year warming trend because you're leaving out the mild winters from the 1930s to early 1940s. As someone who lives in the Great Lakes, I can tell you that ice cover varies wildly year to year. In fact, they had near record ice cover on the Great Lakes in both 2013-14 and 2014-15. But another thing that goes into that is month to month temps, mainly wrt thickness of ice. I'm fine with my climate here, I just hate strong nino Decembers lol.

 

Another interesting note. January hasn't warmed in the last 100 years here. December is most of the winter warming. Despite this white Christmas ratio has remained steady.

in the last 100 years, in Detroit 

Decembers warmed 3.6°

Januarys warmed 0.1°

February's warmed 1.0°

[EastonSN+]

NAO moving in the wrong direction, however this is positive

[EastonSN+]

Out in La La land but one can dream...